Trump isn’t the only ‘story’ driving Bitcoin’s price higher, says exec

[stompix]

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both.

The post-halving effect would not have been a sudden pump, it's not like out of the blue suddenly the demand increased 50% to totally outstrip the supply, and furthermore, if we look at the roice on a yoy time frame the daily coins issuance in $ is still 30% despite the block halving.
Also, side note, I did not expect this from Cointelegraph:

The Bitcoin halving in April cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, which means every next block becomes harder to solve for less reward.

This is wrong, the halving cut the reward, it didn't affect the difficulty, you can have a halving and a difficulty decrease making blocks "easier" to solve, if the author is trying to explain price movement but can grasp the basics then his whole theory is doomed to fail.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

It's obvious that this recent spike is due to Trump winning the election as he is supposedly a pro-Bitcoin US president. My take is the post halving effect is that we should have felt it even before the election, maybe around September the price could be in a bull run but it's not. However, we have to take into account the pre-halving, we already have a new all time high.

So it's really change the cycle as this is the first time that we have seen it. But then again, in every bull run, there is some sort of catalyst besides the halving, and so in this cycle, it's Trump winning the election. And it could be bigger next year when he officially sits in the White House in January. With that, we should accept the fact that it was really Trump who drives this bull run and into a new all time high in 2025.

We have had 2 bull runs this year and I don't see much connection to the halving. We had a bull run in March before the halving and the main catalyst was the approval of bitcoin ETFs, and had almost nothing to do with the halving. I remember that from the halving to the election day, Bitcoin had almost no significant growth, and Bitcoin even stagnated and moved sideways uncomfortably, making people feel depressed. But the market started to get volatile as election day approached, and the second bull run immediately happened on election day and things got crazier when the media confirmed Trump's victory.

Furthermore, if we look at the overall picture of the US financial markets, all of them grew very well after the news of Trump's victory, not just bitcoin. Yes, we need to accept the fact that Trump is the one who has driven the recent bull run.

[el kaka22]

Well, it's almost every time after halving, so it snot really a "news", we knew this but Americans don't really know it. They have this American grand ego, where they think everything must be about them, like how all the alien movies where aliens arrive to New York or something lol. I am not saying Trump had nothing to do with it, of course he played a big role, of course, but mainly for timing, if there were absolutely no American elections this year, the price would still go up, every four years it does, it doesn't matter if a republican wins or a democrat wins, it always goes up.

So, we just need to realize that four year cycle is something that happens after halving every time, and we are seeing the impact of that, with a bit of nudge from trump of course.

[stompix]

Well, it's almost every time after halving, so it snot really a "news", we knew this but Americans don't really know it. They have this American grand ego, where they think everything must be about them, like how all the alien movies where aliens arrive to New York or something lol. I am not saying Trump had nothing to do with it, of course he played a big role, of course, but mainly for timing, if there were absolutely no American elections this year, the price would still go up, every four years it does, it doesn't matter if a republican wins or a democrat wins, it always goes up.

Common, give the US what it deserves, the price spiked exactly after the elections, and Doge went up exactly after the announcement, remember how the ETF approval triggered the last bull run?  Actually, do you think that if it weren't for the good news coming from the US Bitocin would still magically increase in price with nothing to trigger that run? It will just go up like that every 4 years no matter what happens in the world? Nuclear war or an asteroid impact or global recession BTC will go up no matter what?

Every single penny we see now over the 60k mark is because of the results in the US election, you might now like it but this is reality, all we see now is hope that the biggest economy in the world and the financial center of it will turn more positive to crypto.

[Richbased]

Common, give the US what it deserves, the price spiked exactly after the elections

I think this is enough to end the debate. The price of bitcoin immediately spiked after it became obvious that Donald Trump was winning the election and due to his promising pre-election speeches about bitcoin made a lot of investors started buying bitcoin when the news of Trump's winning became viral. Before the election, on 4th of November, the price was around $68k. On getting to the election date (5th November), the price skyrocket to $93k that's the current ATH. So these rapid movement after the election was conducted is as a result of the impact of the party that won the election and not any post-halving effect.

[Synchronice]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

I think, this is what happened, everyone was expecting that Trump's win would positively affect the Bitcoin's price. Yes, we know deep in our heart that what he was saying wasn't actually good for Bitcoin and it was all populist but, it was populist and it would work, that's why many people were making bets on positive crypto price if Trump was about to win. I think that majority of traders were waiting for the result of US presidential elections. Since their bet was on green light to Bitcoin in case Trump wins, we saw a huge jump in Bitcoin's price. This doesn't mean that Bitcoin wouldn't rise if Kamala Harris has won, no, it would rise but not today and not with such a speed. Trump's victory was an accelerator to Bitcoin's price increase, that's all. With or without Trump or Kamala Harris, Bitcoin would rise again because the halving has happened and the demand increases, so it was inevitable anyway.

[$weetne$$]

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

I think they are wrong for thinking that Trump wins is not the main reason why the market has being this bullish. If Kamala had won, I do not think the price of Bitcoin will be this high right now and it is still thinking about moving higher from the movement of the market. Trump wins triggered the whole market and it is not only Bitcoin benefiting but altcoins are also getting a share of the money coming into the market. Trump wins is the main story that is making others to think about investing in Bitcoin. There are other factors contributing but we can not make trump's win to be like a small impact. When the president and the vice with some other important figures in power working together for a better future, the market will just have to be green.

[danadc]

I think they are wrong for thinking that Trump wins is not the main reason why the market has being this bullish. If Kamala had won, I do not think the price of Bitcoin will be this high right now and it is still thinking about moving higher from the movement of the market. Trump wins triggered the whole market and it is not only Bitcoin benefiting but altcoins are also getting a share of the money coming into the market. Trump wins is the main story that is making others to think about investing in Bitcoin. There are other factors contributing but we can not make trump's win to be like a small impact. When the president and the vice with some other important figures in power working together for a better future, the market will just have to be green.

I think something, if it is known that even the blindest person realized that Donald Trump activated the market, why do they insist so much on taking away that merit? Why? What do they gain? The most important thing is that the price is high, and it is very obvious that with Kamala Harris we would be seeing a huge drop in BTC, so I understand that there are many people in the USA who are still crying because their candidate did not win, but it is time to accept that things happen for a reason, and if this was the Trump effect, then let it continue because everything looks very good, no way, when he takes office it will surely be another ATH.

[Wexnident]

~

Rather than post-halving, wouldn't it just be the result of the market going so high that sellers who wanted to sell couldn't sell because, well, the market continued going up? This also introduced a lot of other investors who wanted to enter the market immediately since the market was pumping. So it's kind of like the action before pushing another narrative to push the market. I guess you could still reason it's the election though since it's still the leading cause, but definitely think the halving doesn't have that much of a power now compared to the past. Or even if it had, we'd usually see it by next year instead no?

And no, if Kamala won I reckon we'd just see the same market we've seen for the past couple of months.

[bbc.reporter]

I saw it on the news. You can read it in details https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-supply-shock-drive-bitcoin-prices-higher but you can easily understand it from the title and what I posted.

It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

Agreed! However, we can observe and we can certainly say that the Donald Trump's victory on the election was the biggest cause of the present pump after the halving. There will be many people who hate Trump who will say that this pump is not because of the optimism of him being the next president has brought to the cryptospace. The super woke pink hair democrats in the forum can reject it if that is their decision, but this is certainly the Trump pump

[LogitechMouse]

---
It is said that the bull run is also as a result of the post-halving effect. In the last halvings, this is truly how bitcoin price were. What do you people think. Is it caused by post halving event or Trump. I think both. If it was Harris that won the election, do you think the price of bitcoin would have been this far?

The post-halving effect on the price of Bitcoin is small.
The Trump winning had the most effect towards the price of Bitcoin right now.

Both had the effects - particularly positive effects, but Trump winning the US election had the most effect to where the price of Bitcoin is right now. I think we already knew that Trump's winning will be a catalyst towards the bull run and the price of Bitcoin going up massively, and that's what we saw a few weeks after the election. If Harris won the election, I believe the effect would be positive towards Bitcoin. The sentiments of the investors heavily affect the price of cryptocurrencies, and if she won, the sentiment will be negative thus, prices of all coins including Bitcoin will go down temporarily.

TBH, Trump's winning is what I think will be the only catalyst towards the bull market and it's good that he won. Just imagine many are expecting for the bull run to happen, but because Harris won, it didn't happen. We could've seen the price of Bitcoin at the $60,000 range right now.

[Knight Hider]

Miners mine 450 BTC per day. Yesterday over a million BTC were traded on exchanges. It was an extraordinary volume, but normally the volume is well in the six digits (even on weekends mostly over 200k/day).

Traders buy AND sell. Miners only sell. Buying and selling the same bitcoin increases the volume but doesn't increase demand.

[Minor Miner]

Common, give the US what it deserves, the price spiked exactly after the elections

I think this is enough to end the debate. The price of bitcoin immediately spiked after it became obvious that Donald Trump was winning the election and due to his promising pre-election speeches about bitcoin made a lot of investors started buying bitcoin when the news of Trump's winning became viral. Before the election, on 4th of November, the price was around $68k. On getting to the election date (5th November), the price skyrocket to $93k that's the current ATH. So these rapid movement after the election was conducted is as a result of the impact of the party that won the election and not any post-halving effect.

Or if we look at the big picture, the US stock market. Before the election, according to some surveys, the stock market also expected Trump to win because they also believed that he would bring more good things to the market. As a result, not only Bitcoin but the entire US stock market such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose following the news of Trump's victory. It is clear that Trump's victory has had a positive impact on the entire stock market, not just bitcoin. So I also believe that the recent surge in Bitcoin price has more to do with Trump's victory than the impact of the halving.

[Questat]

Yes, both could be possible reasons why bitcoin price is very bullish at the moment. However, we could not also ignore other key factors that have unlocked the bullish season for bitcoin. First is, the increasing institutional adoption for bitcoin. Companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy and Grayscale have been added to the major institutions that have decided to adopt bitcoin. And because of this, it boosted public awareness that eventually convinced the people to trust and invest in bitcoin.

Next is, the favorable regulatory developments for bitcoin. Most especially that Trump is on our side now, it won’t be surprising anymore that there will be more promotion and development for bitcoin in the next years ahead.

[YOSHIE]

Trump isn’t the only ‘story’ driving Bitcoin’s price higher, says exec

I remember the halving that happened four years ago, many people speculated that Elon Musk was the mastermind behind the increase in the price of Bitcoin and also Doge, although that is true but not all of it is the result of the current surge in Bitcoin from Elon's actions, Doge could be but not for Bitcoin, I think this story is almost the same, almost the whole world is speculating on the current surge in Bitcoin being caused or Trump's victory, actually if you look closely and study it in detail, Trump hasn't done anything, just talked publicly about crypto.

In essence, anyone who speculates about the current price of Bitcoin and Trump, if they speculate that Trump is not the cause, I agree, Generally Americans are jumping into the world of crypto, they are driving up the current price of Bitcoin with massive purchases taking place in the US, Trump is a promoter of belief, not the main role.

[bitgolden]

I remember the halving that happened four years ago, many people speculated that Elon Musk was the mastermind behind the increase in the price of Bitcoin and also Doge, although that is true but not all of it is the result of the current surge in Bitcoin from Elon's actions, Doge could be but not for Bitcoin, I think this story is almost the same, almost the whole world is speculating on the current surge in Bitcoin being caused or Trump's victory, actually if you look closely and study it in detail, Trump hasn't done anything, just talked publicly about crypto.

In essence, anyone who speculates about the current price of Bitcoin and Trump, if they speculate that Trump is not the cause, I agree, Generally Americans are jumping into the world of crypto, they are driving up the current price of Bitcoin with massive purchases taking place in the US, Trump is a promoter of belief, not the main role.

That is true and people will always try to find a reason why the price went up, they would say anything they could without admitting that bitcoin could go up without a specific reason. I mean the reality is that bitcoin goes up because it does that every 4 years and that's the reason, there isn't really a need for anything else. We don't need ETF's, we do not need Elon, we do not need Kamala, none of those could happened and we would still be high, the price could change but the momentum wouldn't.

Sure, maybe we would be less than 93k at all time high, or maybe we would have been higher, I don't really know but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with a greater change on momentum, it would have been still up and that is how you are going to get better. If people keep thinking that we are going to increase then we are going to see a greater results since people who believe that will end up thinking how great they could do and buy, and when they buy, the price goes up.

[JeffBrad12]

trump's effect did a lot to improve the sentiment though, people were hesitant to long BTC before, despite obvious pattern that BTC is making literally reversal when it's about to hit descending channel pattern, then US election comes in and suddenly people become so bullish, I won't discredit both factor, but we can say that both factor plays a big role in helping BTC make this milestone.
not everyday you see BTC just keep going up creating new ATH for many times and the buy pressure is still strong.
people are definitely optimistic toward BTC these days seeing the price action alone.

[Alpha Marine]

Apart from Trump, however, there may be some other factors in play, like the Microsoft decision to ask their shareholders about Bitcoin purchases. But I think the US election is indeed the main driver of the price, at least in the last ten days.

For over a year now, people have speculated about the price of Bitcoin based on its halving. Many people have predicted over $100k, while some believed we would see a new ATH but not up to $100k. Some even said it would get to $200k. All these predictions happened even before Trump started his campaign, so now, why does it seem like the price of Bitcoin is something that would never have happened without Trump's win?
I understand that his win might have fast-tracked things a bit, but it would have still happened with or without the win.

[d5000]

For over a year now, people have speculated about the price of Bitcoin based on its halving [...], so now, why does it seem like the price of Bitcoin is something that would never have happened without Trump's win?

I think you misinterpreted my post. I was referring to the short term price spike in November.

For example, the final push through the March 2024 high of 73.6k came just during the night of the US election, when the results got better and better for Trump. It's almost impossible that this was a coincidence.

It is possible that we could have seen also a push towards this ATH in November due to expectations related to the "Q4 pump" we saw during years like 2016, 2017, 2021 and 2023 or the "post-halving pump" from 2016 and 2020, but imo it would have very likely been slower. The 73k resistance would have probably held some weeks more. It is also possible that the price would have taken more time to reach the 65-70k level in October without Trump's pro-crypto rhetoric in combination with the positive tendency for him in opinion polls and on Polymarket in October.

For me it's like you wrote: "his win might have fast-tracked things a bit". My own alternative history crystal ball is that BTC would be fighting with the ATH and perhaps be at 75-78k if Harris won, and price level could have stood even a bit lower (60-65k area, maybe) if there was no election at all because the fact that crypto was mentioned by both candidates' campaigns (although of course much more by Trump's) is quite a novelty and an interesting step towards acceptance of crypto by the political sphere.

[Hewlet]

The stories don't matter at all.  Trump, war, whatever...  Bitcoin is going higher because that's what it has been designed to do.  It goes on a 4-year cycle and no matter how much analysts want to try and prove themselves by calling all the little ups and downs of the market and explaining them, the only thing that matters at the end of the day is the 4-year cycle.  People shouldn't get caught up in trading (of course there are certain events like mtgox that were obvious to trade) and instead just stack sats.  There will always be events happening, but the 4-year cycle cannot be denied and rules all else.

you can't take out the place of an inductive reasoning from a scenario where news, a whales entry into the bitcoin space, wars and  buys and sell all contribute to driving bitcoin price high or low. the four year cycle is a thing but as much as that is a consideration for bitcoin getting higher, we can't also rule out the effect of trumps victory from the bull we are experiencing.

even though in the build up to this bull, we had anticipated to see bitcoin going up before the end of the year after the bitcoin halving took place and somehow, it could be part of the reason for the current bitcoin price increase, what's more known at the moment as the primary cause is the effect of trumps victory. when bitcoin spot ETF was the reason for bitcoin bull, it was not about the halving or the four year cycle and now that all pointer shows that this is a trump effect, it's not wrong if analyst always mention trump when discussion about bitcoin price increase is being talked about.