[POLYMARKET] Post election Trump, prediction bets, will USA own Greenland bets

[bbc.reporter]

This is a good article on an official under the Donald's administration who is fighting for prediction markets. Who has shared very words on why prediction markets will be helpful on bringing honesty and the truth in our world where there is much fake news and mainstream media manipulation on information.

I very much wish much of you in this forum will understand what are the functions and benefits of prediction markets in showing the chances for truth on an occurrence or an opinion. There are people in this forum who certainly do not understand and argue against the consideration on prediction markets as informative on showing the chances for an occurrence to be true or not hehehe.



Michael Selig oversees a federal agency created to regulate soybean futures. Now he’s helping Americans around the country bet on everything from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions to who will win the latest season of the reality TV show “Survivor.”

Less than two months into the job, the 36-year-old lawyer has come out swinging in favor of prediction markets such as those facilitated by the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. The chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sees their platforms as a way for society to channel the wisdom of crowds for useful information, offering a check on news media and other gatekeepers.

“We’ve seen the eerie world of ‘1984’ where everything’s two plus two equals five,” Selig told The Wall Street Journal, referencing George Orwell’s dystopian novel. “These markets make sure that we get it right—and I think it’s very important to protect that here in the United States with the right guardrails.”

Read in full https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/meet-the-trump-official-fighting-for-prediction-markets

[criptoevangelista]

Quick question: I rarely see anyone talking about Polymarket here, especially in the Gambling section, which I’d expect to cover all types of betting. Is there some sort of resistance to mentioning Polymarket here on BitcoinTalk? Or is it just that people here aren't in the habit of using that platform?

[KTChampions]

Quick question: I rarely see anyone talking about Polymarket here, especially in the Gambling section, which I’d expect to cover all types of betting. Is there some sort of resistance to mentioning Polymarket here on BitcoinTalk? Or is it just that people here aren't in the habit of using that platform?

Prediction markets have had their niche for a long time, long before the polymarket, but historically, people are more inclined to discuss bookmakers and their odds. This probably makes sense, as bookmakers provide liquidity across all markets, while on prediction platforms, you can't bet on a narrow market with a single odds because this is literally a market and there may not be liquidity at the odds you need.
Plus, bookmakers offer a much wider range of events - you can bet on corners, yellow cards, substitutions, etc., while many of these markets are simply non existing on the polymarket.

[bbc.reporter]

Quick question: I rarely see anyone talking about Polymarket here, especially in the Gambling section, which I’d expect to cover all types of betting. Is there some sort of resistance to mentioning Polymarket here on BitcoinTalk? Or is it just that people here aren't in the habit of using that platform?

I reckon that much of the people in the forum are sportsbettors. Polymarket has sports, however, this is a better platform for betting on the elections, the box office on different movies and other different world news and occurrences.

Similar to the news that China has begun their development of new nuclear weapons. They are speculated to do their tests on these new nuclear weapons. You can bet if there will be a nuclear weapons detonated on Polymarket heheeheh. If China detonates a nuclear weapon to test this, you will win the bet.



https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by-562

[KTChampions]

I reckon that much of the people in the forum are sportsbettors. Polymarket has sports, however, this is a better platform for betting on the elections, the box office on different movies and other different world news and occurrences.

Similar to the news that China has begun their development of new nuclear weapons. They are speculated to do their tests on these new nuclear weapons. You can bet if there will be a nuclear weapons detonated on Polymarket heheeheh. If China detonates a nuclear weapon to test this, you will win the bet.



https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by-562

I checked the rules (the most important thing on Polymarket is to understand what the dispute is about) and they seem quite clear (not like the "will the US attack Venezuela" case):

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between December 17, 2025 ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.

A 3.5% return over a month and a week of waiting seems like easy money. There are no signs yet that any country is preparing to conduct actual nuclear tests. I don't really understand why big players don't execute this bet. In our case (small players), 3.5% isn't interesting - we need faster markets with higher profits.

[Sithara007]

A 3.5% return over a month and a week of waiting seems like easy money. There are no signs yet that any country is preparing to conduct actual nuclear tests. I don't really understand why big players don't execute this bet. In our case (small players), 3.5% isn't interesting - we need faster markets with higher profits.

There is nothing like easy money. In order to get a 3.5% return (which will be lower after taxes anyway), you are risking 33x of that amount. Smaller players don't really understand the supplementary risks. They only focus on the main risk. Suppose someone is placing a bet from USA and after two weeks the governments bans Polymarket from operating in the country, then how the user will get his money back? Here he will lose 33x of his potential win. Also, what if an accidental detonation occurs at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant? The chances are very low, but definitely not zero.

[KTChampions]

A 3.5% return over a month and a week of waiting seems like easy money. There are no signs yet that any country is preparing to conduct actual nuclear tests. I don't really understand why big players don't execute this bet. In our case (small players), 3.5% isn't interesting - we need faster markets with higher profits.

There is nothing like easy money. In order to get a 3.5% return (which will be lower after taxes anyway), you are risking 33x of that amount. Smaller players don't really understand the supplementary risks. They only focus on the main risk. Suppose someone is placing a bet from USA and after two weeks the governments bans Polymarket from operating in the country, then how the user will get his money back? Here he will lose 33x of his potential win. Also, what if an accidental detonation occurs at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant? The chances are very low, but definitely not zero.

What taxes, friend? Is Polymarket a tax agent? I haven't heard of that. If the responsibility for paying taxes lies with you, then you simply don't have to  As far as I know, even a KYC is rarely required at the Polymarket, email registration is usually sufficient. If your VPN doesn't show a restricted country (like the US), you can trade without any problems. As for risk, it's obvious that it exists everywhere. But if you want, you can make the opposite bet, it's all up to you.

[bitgolden]

While this is "understandable" that people want to bet on things that are not games, that is something that is "new" and "fresh" so people like to do that for now.

I understand why it was created, to build something that would basically be p2p betting and interestingly there were places like this before polymarket and it is not the first one. I have wagered in places like this before, I do not remember the name but it was in crypto world, it just didn't get this much marketing and attention.

[Sithara007]

What taxes, friend? Is Polymarket a tax agent? I haven't heard of that. If the responsibility for paying taxes lies with you, then you simply don't have to  As far as I know, even a KYC is rarely required at the Polymarket, email registration is usually sufficient. If your VPN doesn't show a restricted country (like the US), you can trade without any problems. As for risk, it's obvious that it exists everywhere. But if you want, you can make the opposite bet, it's all up to you.

Tax is one of the lower priorities. I agree that a VPN should keep you safe, as long as you deal in moderate amounts. The IRS can track the uers still, but they will not bother if the traded amount is not in millions. But the biggest factor in play here is that you will be risking 33x of your potential winning on an online platform, which is not insured. I would say that the risk is similar to what users take when they keep their coins in exchange wallet. Now I am someone who has lost plenty of coins in exchanges such as BTC-e, Instawallet (back in 2014) and Mt Gox. There is a real risk of this website being taken down, albeit very low.