Are we on the edge of first Phase.

[ajiz138]

I think before this month will come to an end, Bitcoin will create a new ATH surging to $110k but if that is not archived, the price will not go below $80k. Based on my speculation, the first quarter of this year will still be bullish but in the second quarter, we could see serious price drop.

Hoping that this month bitcoin will break its record again, I am waiting for Donald Trump to be inaugurated.

Many hope that after being inaugurated he issued a policy towards bitcoin that is even more positive so that this triggers dorangan to return to ATH this month, although we don't know later.

Q4 may be the one to watch out for could be a serious decline.

[Hamza2424]

In my book that gives him 21 to 31 which 10-11 days of presidential executive orders.


The entire world landscape could be greatly changed by jan 31.  Or he could do nothing and start in Feb or March Or April.

I can say very simply his actions are greatly anticipated and if he stalls that will have a huge effect.

Stalling to say April 1 then writing 25 crazy executive orders then saying just kidding it was an April fools joke is possible.  this is how far out side the box the trumpeter thinks.

Be ready for a hell of a show.

Frankly my guess is he writes at least 5 or 6 wild executive orders before Jan 31. And to think he does not start until February is next to impossible.

But who knows what he will do.

We are ready for Hell of a show, but as you said any of his actions will greatly impact this is what I think concerning, the market can show positive sentiments till the 20th, and maybe some rumors before any official announcement but his actions are gonna hit hard haha I hope that he won't say What the hell Bitcoin what never heard of it haha.

Honestly, most of us are hoping for good announcements any kind of delay will also impact so if we say nope he's gonna make announcements 1 or months later we are for sure gonna follow the strong restricted path of consolidation which is not bad as I'm not in hurry of anything.

I guess the wild orders of your mentioning are gonna be in our favor as I'm waiting for fancy number 111.11k. 

[justdimin]

I think before this month will come to an end, Bitcoin will create a new ATH surging to $110k but if that is not archived, the price will not go below $80k. Based on my speculation, the first quarter of this year will still be bullish but in the second quarter, we could see serious price drop.

Hoping that this month bitcoin will break its record again, I am waiting for Donald Trump to be inaugurated.

Many hope that after being inaugurated he issued a policy towards bitcoin that is even more positive so that this triggers dorangan to return to ATH this month, although we don't know later.

Q4 may be the one to watch out for could be a serious decline.

This is exactly the moment I am waiting for as well. As far as I can remember it was either 20th or 21st and that would be a great period for crypto. Many Americans are worried about him and all that, but he is not my president so I do not care if he takes the nation to ground or not, as long as he keeps his promises about crypto, us foreigners will be happy where we are and that's all I care.

Considering Elon will be with him all the way too, then we could safely assume that we could see this getting a much better return on our investments as well. The start of that will be the day he takes office and swore oath, and that day I am hoping to see 110k+ soon enough, that should not be all that bad, and I am pretty sure that we are going to end up with a much more than that too.

[yhiaali3]

Everyone is betting on Bitcoin to rise when he officially takes office on January 20, but this does not necessarily happen immediately. I expected Bitcoin to move up to $110-120K before the end of the year, but unfortunately my prediction failed and Bitcoin closed below $100K.

In any case, my expectation is that Bitcoin will continue to rise during the coming period and may reach its peak three months from now. After that, there will be a correction for some time and the upward wave may continue until the end of 2025.

[shinratensei_]

I'm more on the side where I think current price is consolidating, it will range around $90k - $100k, at some point there will be flash dump to shake people to get out of the market but price will recover back in no time.
I don't believe the market already done with the bullrun, there's so many thing that could make BTC price go higher in the future that hasn't happened yet and still a rumour or potential, i'd definitely bet on that, now since even MSTR doing DCA at $90k++ level, market can't just crash abruptly and go down.

the most logical way is that we're on consolidation phase then we will go back up again, bitcoin have been doing this kind of thing in this rally.

[YOSHIE]

Are we on the edge of first Phase.

Whatever phase, speculation, analysis you believe in, you have to know that Bitcoin from year to year is very difficult to predict and currently there are no fundamentals that can be analyzed by Bitcoin experts or Bitcoin users, the price going forward and beyond, that's what happened with Bitcoin, howeverYour speculation has its own rights.

I believe that the price of Bitcoin for the next few months will increase, on the contrary, as you analyzed, whatever makes you believe and so do I, what I believe, it all comes back to ourselves, the best way of thinking, especially about pricesBitcoins.

[Solosanz]

What analysis? I don't see you make an analysis.

Trump will officially become president at January 20, 2025, it's still in "20 days" since this thread was created, which I believe Bitcoin price will break $108.5K.

Since Bitcoin price is still react to popular people or institutions that talks about Bitcoin, it's nothing surprise if Bitcoin price will break $108.5K in any month instead of staying at $87.5K to $108.5K for long period.

[Geraldina Alves]

Yes, Bitcoin is often described as being in the "first phase" of its evolution, especially when looking at its adoption and technological development. Here's an overview of what this means:

The Current Phase of Bitcoin

1. Adoption Phase (Early Stage)

Store of Value: Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized as a digital version of gold, serving primarily as a store of value.

Limited Usage as Currency: While some use Bitcoin for transactions, its volatility and high transaction fees make it less practical for everyday use.

Growing Awareness: Adoption is still in its infancy, with a significant portion of the global population unaware or skeptical of Bitcoin.



2. Technological Phase

Layer 1 (Bitcoin Network): The base layer focuses on security and decentralization but is slow and has limited scalability.

Layer 2 Solutions: Technologies like the Lightning Network aim to make Bitcoin faster and cheaper for everyday transactions, moving toward the next phase.



3. Regulatory Phase

Many countries are still developing frameworks for Bitcoin regulation, which will influence its adoption and integration into the broader financial system.





---

What the Next Phases Might Look Like

1. Mass Adoption

Bitcoin becomes more widely accepted as a currency for transactions.

Broader integration with traditional financial systems and retail payment platforms.



2. Technological Maturity

Improvements in scalability and energy efficiency.

Greater reliance on Layer 2 solutions and applications.



3. Regulatory Clarity

Governments and institutions establish clear policies for Bitcoin usage, mining, and taxation.

Potential for Bitcoin to become a part of central bank reserves.





---

Are We on the Edge?

Indicators of Transition:

Increasing institutional adoption (e.g., ETFs, companies holding Bitcoin in reserves).

Governments exploring Bitcoin (e.g., El Salvador adopting it as legal tender).

Technological advancements like the Lightning Network gaining traction.


Challenges Ahead:

Scalability and energy usage issues.

Regulatory uncertainty in major economies.

Volatility and skepticism from traditional financial institutions.



In summary, Bitcoin is still in its early phases, but we are seeing signs that it is beginning to transition to the next stages of adoption and technological maturity.

[Geraldina Alves]

Yes, Bitcoin is often described as being in the "first phase" of its evolution, especially when looking at its adoption and technological development. Here's an overview of what this means:

The Current Phase of Bitcoin

1. Adoption Phase (Early Stage)

Store of Value: Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized as a digital version of gold, serving primarily as a store of value.

Limited Usage as Currency: While some use Bitcoin for transactions, its volatility and high transaction fees make it less practical for everyday use.

Growing Awareness: Adoption is still in its infancy, with a significant portion of the global population unaware or skeptical of Bitcoin.



2. Technological Phase

Layer 1 (Bitcoin Network): The base layer focuses on security and decentralization but is slow and has limited scalability.

Layer 2 Solutions: Technologies like the Lightning Network aim to make Bitcoin faster and cheaper for everyday transactions, moving toward the next phase.



3. Regulatory Phase

Many countries are still developing frameworks for Bitcoin regulation, which will influence its adoption and integration into the broader financial system.





---

What the Next Phases Might Look Like

1. Mass Adoption

Bitcoin becomes more widely accepted as a currency for transactions.

Broader integration with traditional financial systems and retail payment platforms.



2. Technological Maturity

Improvements in scalability and energy efficiency.

Greater reliance on Layer 2 solutions and applications.



3. Regulatory Clarity

Governments and institutions establish clear policies for Bitcoin usage, mining, and taxation.

Potential for Bitcoin to become a part of central bank reserves.





---

Are We on the Edge?

Indicators of Transition:

Increasing institutional adoption (e.g., ETFs, companies holding Bitcoin in reserves).

Governments exploring Bitcoin (e.g., El Salvador adopting it as legal tender).

Technological advancements like the Lightning Network gaining traction.


Challenges Ahead:

Scalability and energy usage issues.

Regulatory uncertainty in major economies.

Volatility and skepticism from traditional financial institutions.



In summary, Bitcoin is still in its early phases, but we are seeing signs that it is beginning to transition to the next stages of adoption and technological maturity.

bc1q4llpgfe7q34ary4zufj4h54myc4htnhv0uq0md

[terrific]

I wouldn't base the run of this bull until the end of the month. Yeah, sure Trump might be the deciding factor when he sits as the POTUS but that's not the end game for this cycle. There's still a lot more to consider and I wouldn't put a lot of stress thinking about them, I'll just let them come, I'm holding, sold some and will keep on doing the DCA for myself. While if the market plummets and that could be some factor for rejection and longer, still, I am optimistic and following the golden rule and pattern of 4-yeart cycle.

Trump and what would be with him is just another cog in the machine that is already running.
There are lots of other bullish events to shape the sentiment and it would happen sooner or later - so 2025 should be the year to see great results in any case.

We'd see and we're on this with the same thoughts.

While if the market plummets and that could be some factor for rejection and longer, still, I am optimistic and following the golden rule and pattern of 4-yeart cycle.

I agree about your view but I guess we need to switch over from some old patterns like this time bitcoin may have longer bullrun than a year and bears may not get enough strength to bring the bottom up to 80% from the ATH. I may remain wrong still we need to consider the level of adaption happening right now. When more people are on buying side, I speculate about the collapse of usual 4 year cycle.

Even I do not have any plan for cashing out within this cycle, I do follow carefully about the changes in bitcoin's usual market cycle. Because that may help me in future for the scenarios like when I add more or when I exit partially.

You might be right about the longer bull run. With 2022 as the assumed bear market, there was not that much effect on it. It's the bear but we didn't mostly felt that it was. And for this year, this should be the time where we'd see the peak of the bull run but let's always check the fear and greed index. When people are greedy, we know what should come by that time. But even then, the bulls have always dominated it and hopefully the peak won't disappoint us. And if you don't have any plans of cashing out right now, it's your choice but you take some and it's fine.

[pooya87]

It is the holiday season in a large portion of the world so the market is going to be less active which makes speculating about it hard for the time being. But currently we are in the undecided phase where we have had a rise to a new ATH but people can not make their minds up yet about going all in for the rise or enjoy the correction.

There is also the mess that Trump is going to bring with him which has made investors "too scared to commit" which is why we haven't seen the rise continue even though the momentum was there.

[Justbillywitt]

I do believe that we are somewhere at the end of our first phase rally and I want to ask what you guys think about the market from the current level, as far I speculate in my view we are now in a trap zone and the market is for sure gonna be in critical zone after 21 to 25 days. In more description, according to my analysis, we are gonna stick to a zone of 87.5k to 108.5k for a long time if the market doesn't hit a new peak in the next almost 20 days.

With the end of January if bitcoin doesn't hit a new All-Time-High any cross-testing form these levels will get rejected. Obviously we are hopeful for the next wave but I'm kind of curious how do you guys thnk about the market in which direction we are heading (Consolidation over 4 to 6 months, New All-Time-High or a Dump to shake emotions below 85k).

I think the market is heading to a new ATH. This is January the long awaited month that Donald Trump is going to take over administration. The Dump to shake emotions has already happened as we saw bitcoin went as low as $91k thereabout. So now that the market has gradually started picking up it's going to ride to a new ATH. For me I believe that this is going to be the lowest we are going to see the market in few months to come. There is bullish sentiment in the market so we are going to see bitcoin break the previous ATH and set a new on in a matter of weeks from now. If bitcoin was going to drop below $85k it would have done that before now. There are so many expectations on the incoming adminstration, so anyone who has held his bitcoin till now will want to see what happens to bitcoin after the handover to Donald Trump, nobody will want to sell now at a time where people believe it's a new era for bitcoin.

[STT]

I'd love to give the very honest tip, you should never rely on politics for positives.  Its a trick like a rabbit out of a top hat, impressive what they seem able to do but every time examine the detail and you will find its the fine people of that country who made it happen and count in a quality way.  The politics is just promises and the ideas of this policy, fine words but I hope never to rely on one dudes ego and loud words as a reason for BTC to rise or anything good especially and I dont expect that now.

Very likely people are expecting too much, we reset that instant expectation and have to trade out any weakness.  I do expect another ATH but it wont be about just one country imo or the politics derived from centralized policy etc.

[danadc]

The fact that politics has favored the price of btc is something that is very popular , many of us like that btc continues to rise, but we have to wait and see that some events may still be favorable to btc, and no one can deny that, even those who are very political and go on the opposite side of Trump, but you don't have to be very political or go from one side to the other, it is known that the effect of Trump's arrival to the presidency was very positive, and when it materializes how it is , then who is going to say that it is not possible for it to rise? Who? It is likely that the price will rise.

[JeffBrad12]

seems like it with the news of BTC sell off and all, you know it can be disastrous if people are so easily panicking, good news is, right now retailer adoption is still low, most of the big move coming from institutional investors which arguably are more diamond hand and not easily panic, bad news is, if shit hit the fan these institutional investors will also try to do what's already obvious.

currently we can only speculate and hoping nothing of a bad news coming out this month and BTC can be spared, bitcoin is in critical position right now deciding whether it's gonna turning the sentiment a little bit into bearish or just stay bullish.

basically nobody know whats gonna happen, however i believe worst case scenario just BTC going down to $80k anyway.

[dansus021]

Are we on the edge of first Phase well in my opinion i believe we at the edge of the first phase since bitcoin already created new all time high and we are stable at 90K ish level. But here is the thing, we need to confirmation before make any position if the price could not break 90K level then we should be fine and the price could go up more but if can break the 90K level the super bearish is stau at 75K level