Who truly moves the market— price action, or the news itself

[Sebastian Michaelis]

Does technical analysis precede the news? Who truly moves the market—the chart and price action, or the news itself?

I did some digging, and I hope you find the answer in this post.

Some of you may already know Dow Theory’s First Rule:



This is the essence of Dow’s first rule—price action is king.
News, reports, and predictions? They’re just late reflections of what’s already unfolding on the chart. Price moves first, and the news comes later to justify it—not the other way around.

Let’s put this theory to the test.
I conducted a simple analysis of crypto charts that crashed due to news events. Here are the prime examples:

1 - Bitcoin Crash Due to COVID-19




Two days before the crash, a Head & Shoulders pattern had already formed.
Any seasoned technical analyst would’ve opened a short position right before the collapse.


2 - FTT's Crash Following FTX Bankruptcy



The chart had already printed a descending triangle—a textbook bearish formation.
Any technical trader worth their salt would have spotted it and shorted FTT before the collapse.


3 - LUNA's Catastrophic Fall



Not one, but two bearish patterns showed up:

A rising wedge (bearish)
Another Head & Shoulders formation


The Common Thread?
These crashes were predictable—not the entire meltdown, but at least the bearish sentiment and downward momentum.
Anyone who lost money might have saved their capital—or even profited—if they had technical knowledge.

What do you think?

[cryptoaddictchie]

Does technical analysis precede the news? Who truly moves the market—the chart and price action, or the news itself?

What do you think?

Quite a tricky question. I think the news itself, normally when theres a news of a fud or bullish news the market reacts to that and can see the chart move based on that news, so it means that the fundamental event should occur first before any movements come. But its hard to predict what could trigger a solid move when it comes to trading.

[Synchronice]

Does technical analysis precede the news? Who truly moves the market—the chart and price action, or the news itself?

I did some digging, and I hope you find the answer in this post.

Some of you may already know Dow Theory’s First Rule:

|Snip|

This is the essence of Dow’s first rule—price action is king.
News, reports, and predictions? They’re just late reflections of what’s already unfolding on the chart. Price moves first, and the news comes later to justify it—not the other way around.

Let’s put this theory to the test.
I conducted a simple analysis of crypto charts that crashed due to news events. Here are the prime examples:

1 - Bitcoin Crash Due to COVID-19



Two days before the crash, a Head & Shoulders pattern had already formed.
Any seasoned technical analyst would’ve opened a short position right before the collapse.


2 - FTT's Crash Following FTX Bankruptcy



The chart had already printed a descending triangle—a textbook bearish formation.
Any technical trader worth their salt would have spotted it and shorted FTT before the collapse.

3 - LUNA's Catastrophic Fall



Not one, but two bearish patterns showed up:

A rising wedge (bearish)
Another Head & Shoulders formation

The Common Thread?
These crashes were predictable—not the entire meltdown, but at least the bearish sentiment and downward momentum.
Anyone who lost money might have saved their capital—or even profited—if they had technical knowledge.

What do you think?

This is a really good question, something that I often think about and can't totally agree with my answer. To be honest, I think that price isn't always predictable, even with access to the latest news or technical analysis but what I'm 100% sure about is that when price is going up and the bubble is growing too much, there always happens something negative that causes the bubble to burst and gives a start to bears.

I don't believe in technical analysis because drawing someone on chart means absolutely nothing. What if someone posts his technical analysis but I am a whale and do whatever I want with the price? What if I'm Elon Musk and do whatever I want? Then how will you say that your technical analysis is correct? You can choose any timeframe and draw whatever you want. You can draw different picture on 8 hours charts, 12 hours charts, 1 day charts, 1 week charts, 1 year charts. You can draw literally anything but that means absolutely nothing.

Technical analysis like this ones where people draw lines, is just an imaginery way of predicting something. It's like believing in Zodiac.

[Sebastian Michaelis]

Does technical analysis precede the news? Who truly moves the market—the chart and price action, or the news itself?

I did some digging, and I hope you find the answer in this post.

Some of you may already know Dow Theory’s First Rule:

|Snip|

This is the essence of Dow’s first rule—price action is king.
News, reports, and predictions? They’re just late reflections of what’s already unfolding on the chart. Price moves first, and the news comes later to justify it—not the other way around.

Let’s put this theory to the test.
I conducted a simple analysis of crypto charts that crashed due to news events. Here are the prime examples:

1 - Bitcoin Crash Due to COVID-19



Two days before the crash, a Head & Shoulders pattern had already formed.
Any seasoned technical analyst would’ve opened a short position right before the collapse.


2 - FTT's Crash Following FTX Bankruptcy



The chart had already printed a descending triangle—a textbook bearish formation.
Any technical trader worth their salt would have spotted it and shorted FTT before the collapse.

3 - LUNA's Catastrophic Fall



Not one, but two bearish patterns showed up:

A rising wedge (bearish)
Another Head & Shoulders formation

The Common Thread?
These crashes were predictable—not the entire meltdown, but at least the bearish sentiment and downward momentum.
Anyone who lost money might have saved their capital—or even profited—if they had technical knowledge.

What do you think?

This is a really good question, something that I often think about and can't totally agree with my answer. To be honest, I think that price isn't always predictable, even with access to the latest news or technical analysis but what I'm 100% sure about is that when price is going up and the bubble is growing too much, there always happens something negative that causes the bubble to burst and gives a start to bears.

I don't believe in technical analysis because drawing someone on chart means absolutely nothing. What if someone posts his technical analysis but I am a whale and do whatever I want with the price? What if I'm Elon Musk and do whatever I want? Then how will you say that your technical analysis is correct? You can choose any timeframe and draw whatever you want. You can draw different picture on 8 hours charts, 12 hours charts, 1 day charts, 1 week charts, 1 year charts. You can draw literally anything but that means absolutely nothing.

Technical analysis like this ones where people draw lines, is just an imaginery way of predicting something. It's like believing in Zodiac.

Ah, You’ve stirred the pot with this one, my friend. Let me give you a response that’ll make your head spin.

Look, you're onto something there. Price is a beast that doesn't just dance to technical analysis alone, and you know what? Sometimes it’s a wild ride of unpredictability. Even with all the latest news or the "perfect" charts, trying to catch the movement is like chasing the wind. Capisce?

But here's where I disagree just a little: Technical analysis—while not a crystal ball—gives us patterns that have been crafted through history. It’s not about predicting the future like some soothsayer. It's about identifying the psychology of the market. People follow trends, get greedy, panic, and act like herds. And that, my friend, is where TA comes in handy. You don’t need to be Elon Musk to see a trend, you just need to recognize the patterns those before you have already left.

Yeah, the market can be manipulated by whales, but that's where the beauty of market sentiment comes in. If a whale is pulling strings, the reaction from the crowd is still something predictable. The herd will react, and that’s all we need to get a sense of what’s coming. Technical analysis isn’t perfect, it’s not a foolproof system, but it’s a tool. It’s not about drawing pretty lines—it’s about reading what’s in front of you, understanding what it means when people start losing their minds over a price movement. It’s the psychological warfare.

Technical analysis isn’t a belief in the Zodiac, it’s a map. It won’t tell you where you're going, but it sure as hell will help you not get lost. And as for Musk, he may move mountains, but the market’s psychology is what will tell us how big the ripples are. You see, we’re not just predicting numbers; we’re predicting human behavior. That's the power.

So, maybe it’s not perfect, maybe it’s not a guaranteed win, but it’s far from just a fantasy. It's a strategy, and in a world full of chaos, it’s the closest thing we have to order. Embrace it.

[Beparanf]

It’s a combination of price action and news itself that dictates the move of the market. Analysts usually use price action to determine what kind of featured news they will release to the public in able to stay relevant.

But most of the time, new alone is the main culprit for the market movement. Even a simple statement of Trump and Elon can pump a certain token or Bitcoin.

[Hatchy]

Price action and fundamentals affects the market in general. They work hand in hand driving price across or below different levels. Even though you are aware of these sudden changes about taking places, sometimes a loss Is just too inevitable. As a trader, you may want to stick to your trading plan, like Tp or nothing. Most times it's best to just let the market do it's thing and if you are lucky, you make profits or losses along the way..

[Mpamaegbu]

Price Action is just the direction price is going. As a trader you look at each candle close and judge if price will continue that way or do a tactical withdrawal, that's price action at work. PA doesn't move the market. Rather, it aligns with fundamentals to head to whatever direction the trend is. What moves the market is fundamentals (news). Even when you've technicals saying buy, and there's negative news after your confirmation to long a trade, the direction will easily change immediately to sell. It shows that Technical Analysis also respects news. That's why pro traders like to keep off trading when there are news events coming up.

[Jawhead999]

Everyone are smart when become "reviewers", but when they're become "speculators", only few of them able to do it.

If you think these crash are predictable just because they have "technical knowledge", I challenge you to create your own thread and use your technical knowledge to predict the upcoming crash.

If you can correctly predict 70 out of 100 predictions, then I'm wrong for saying that.

[Mpamaegbu]

Everyone are smart when become "reviewers", but when they're become "speculators", only few of them able to do it.

You got it. It's just like saying, every boxer has a plan before getting into the ring until they're punched in the face. One thing about charts is that on hindsight every trader becomes clever and would see their indicators and trading strategies play out but that's not the same while the chart is still live. It's the same way we see historical data of certain cryptos that did well from low cap projects to their ATH and be filled with regret of, "had I known" We tend to see the clearer picture after price had moved on, and away. That's what happens with reviews.

[Franctoshi]

Does technical analysis precede the news? Who truly moves the market—the chart and price action, or the news itself?

I did some digging, and I hope you find the answer in this post.

Some of you may already know Dow Theory’s First Rule:

This is the essence of Dow’s first rule—price action is king.
News, reports, and predictions? They’re just late reflections of what’s already unfolding on the chart. Price moves first, and the news comes later to justify it—not the other way around.

Let’s put this theory to the test.
I conducted a simple analysis of crypto charts that crashed due to news events. Here are the prime examples:

1 - Bitcoin Crash Due to COVID-19




Two days before the crash, a Head & Shoulders pattern had already formed.
Any seasoned technical analyst would’ve opened a short position right before the collapse.


2 - FTT's Crash Following FTX Bankruptcy

The chart had already printed a descending triangle—a textbook bearish formation.
Any technical trader worth their salt would have spotted it and shorted FTT before the collapse.

3 - LUNA's Catastrophic Fall

Not one, but two bearish patterns showed up:

A rising wedge (bearish)
Another Head & Shoulders formation


The Common Thread?
These crashes were predictable—not the entire meltdown, but at least the bearish sentiment and downward momentum.
Anyone who lost money might have saved their capital—or even profited—if they had technical knowledge.

What do you think?

News events has more effects or tendency to move the market in a dramatic and drastic way than price action do, during a news event, everyone seems to be taking same side action or doing same thing at same time, either by FUD or FOMO, thereby bringing a drastic shift in the price of an asset or imbalance in liquidity.

[JeffBrad12]

I think news is what made the price action, basically it's the same thing, at least that's from my understanding, but the funny thing is when I tried to make technical analysis, it's as if, the world event follows technical pattern . call me crazy but many time when I see bearish pattern, suddenly some bad news appear, and when there's bullish pattern, some good news appear, it's as if we're taking a peek into the glimpse of the future. but maybe that's just my biased view of the price action since I personally more of a technical analysis guy when it comes to trading. sometime it felt like magic to me. though yes there's a time where suddenly good news come and my TA got wrecked .

[cryptoaddictchie]

call me crazy but many time when I see bearish pattern, suddenly some bad news appear, and when there's bullish pattern, some good news appear, it's as if we're taking a peek into the glimpse of the future. but maybe that's just my biased view of the price action since I personally more of a technical analysis guy when it comes to trading. sometime it felt like magic to me. though yes there's a time where suddenly good news come and my TA got wrecked .

This two relates to one another. We just dont know which one heavily impacted. Cause there are instances that a technical pattern signify a bullish movement then suddenly it turn out bearish as a result. It means nothing is certain, same goes when a news broke out and it didnt follow what supposed movement for that.

Example, when Microstrategy being broadcast to a lot of media platform bought btc, of course its a good sentiment  but the market bleeds instead.

[MusaMohamed]

News is used to manipulate the market, and you can say like the market reacts to news. On tip of iceberg, it's what you see and can make your causal inference with news and price action this way.

If you look deeper, and if you are experienced enough in the market, you see another hidden fact. News are released to legalize or to support price action on the market. News are not real reasons, and just used to make price actions look to be reasonable.

In another view, it's like a story of a chicken and an egg, what exists first.

[Sebastian Michaelis]

call me crazy but many time when I see bearish pattern, suddenly some bad news appear, and when there's bullish pattern, some good news appear, it's as if we're taking a peek into the glimpse of the future. but maybe that's just my biased view of the price action since I personally more of a technical analysis guy when it comes to trading. sometime it felt like magic to me. though yes there's a time where suddenly good news come and my TA got wrecked .

This two relates to one another. We just dont know which one heavily impacted. Cause there are instances that a technical pattern signify a bullish movement then suddenly it turn out bearish as a result. It means nothing is certain, same goes when a news broke out and it didnt follow what supposed movement for that.

Example, when Microstrategy being broadcast to a lot of media platform bought btc, of course its a good sentiment  but the market bleeds instead.

Hi mate thanks , can you give me what date exactly Microstrategy being broadast to alot of media... !!

I think news is what made the price action, basically it's the same thing, at least that's from my understanding, but the funny thing is when I tried to make technical analysis, it's as if, the world event follows technical pattern . call me crazy but many time when I see bearish pattern, suddenly some bad news appear, and when there's bullish pattern, some good news appear, it's as if we're taking a peek into the glimpse of the future. but maybe that's just my biased view of the price action since I personally more of a technical analysis guy when it comes to trading. sometime it felt like magic to me. though yes there's a time where suddenly good news come and my TA got wrecked .

Hi , i think we share the same funny thing  , Good luck for you , and if u have Telegram maybe be we can Exchange some information/ Techincal analysis..!

News is used to manipulate the market, and you can say like the market reacts to news. On tip of iceberg, it's what you see and can make your causal inference with news and price action this way.

If you look deeper, and if you are experienced enough in the market, you see another hidden fact. News are released to legalize or to support price action on the market. News are not real reasons, and just used to make price actions look to be reasonable.

In another view, it's like a story of a chicken and an egg, what exists first.

i like your pointview , Exactly like what you said , a story of a chiken and en egg, what exists first..

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[stadus]

There’s a well-known strategy I stick to: "buy the rumor, sell the news." It usually works better with positive news. When there’s just a rumor, people don’t react much, but once it turns into news, they tend to overreact, which pushes the price up and makes it overvalued, perfect timing to unload and take profit.

On the flip side, with bad news, people panic and the price often drops below its real value. That’s the moment to buy and wait for the market to recover gradually, another chance for easy profit. It’s a pretty simple strategy, and any trader can pull it off as long as they follow the plan effectively.

[FortuneFollower]

Both help each other.
They are the pushers in their own ways, in my opinion.
But usually, the news comes when the action already started / at its mid-part.

[cute nmp]

Both price action and news move the market but one thing I have noticed is that most of the time news follows the same direction as the market price action. BTC recently made a triple top on the 4H timeframe and shortly the news came out everything turned bearish indicating that the news follows the same direction as it's price action.

[Tonimez]

Price Action is just the direction price is going. As a trader you look at each candle close and judge if price will continue that way or do a tactical withdrawal, that's price action at work. PA doesn't move the market. Rather, it aligns with fundamentals to head to whatever direction the trend is. What moves the market is fundamentals (news). Even when you've technicals saying buy, and there's negative news after your confirmation to long a trade, the direction will easily change immediately to sell. It shows that Technical Analysis also respects news. That's why pro traders like to keep off trading when there are news events coming up.

I agree with you but the roles the news play is sometimes the reason for a sudden crash and loses people face. Price action could tend to keep the market price predictable but the news betrays the Market most times with excessive hyping. When the news hypes the price to an extent, speculations set in and traders slow down on their investments which invariably results to price fall due to panic. Most coins are more stable in the absence of much publicity and tend to favour investors more than others which could get the hype and loose values shortly when the atmosphere is tensed.

[shield132]

I've been trading with cryptocurrencies for a long time and I'd say that Bitcoin is the most predictable currency and if technical analysis has some meaning, it's in Bitcoin trading. In altcoin trading, you can't predict anything because most of them are pumped and dumped artificially.

I am not a fan of technical analysis, I failed every time I tried to do it, maybe it was my mistake but from my experience, news moves the market. Remember what happened when China announced the ban of Bitcoin mining, remember what happened when Elon Musk said that Tesla wouldn't accept Bitcoin because of environmental damage, then the Bitcoin market crashed and coins like Matic went up.
I think that news drives the price of Bitcoin but I can't talk about altcoins, they are the subject of speculation from my experience.

[Botnake]

News are what makes the market moving into different direction. News can create FUD, FOMO, market bearish and it's bullish season, even though the market itself is volatile in nature.

However, price action is the result of news. Price varies depending on what kind of news that hit the market. If it's a positive one, the market turns green and bullish, while negative news makes the market bloody and bearish, seeing different coins dropping their prices.