continually being asked when 2025 ATH will be

[uchegod-21]

Before I stumbled in this thread of franky1 bull run prediction, I have never seen such a prediction. The highest I saw from last year was $173k project but the expectation later faded away and we were hoping for $120k for ATH. But when I saw Frank talking about $300k to $400k, it sounded so huge for me and I couldn't comprehend. But when bitcoin dipped from $109k to the area of $80k, that was when I started reading articles in the internet suggesting that bitcoin could make upto $500k rally. I do not actually understand how this happens but the news is gaining wait in the internet.

[Agbamoni]

Before I stumbled in this thread of franky1 bull run prediction, I have never seen such a prediction. The highest I saw from last year was $173k project but the expectation later faded away and we were hoping for $120k for ATH. But when I saw Frank talking about $300k to $400k, it sounded so huge for me and I couldn't comprehend. But when bitcoin dipped from $109k to the area of $80k, that was when I started reading articles in the internet suggesting that bitcoin could make upto $500k rally. I do not actually understand how this happens but the news is gaining wait in the internet.

I know past event does not guarantee future result. I will still put it this way that in the past before bitcoin can make a massive increase in price is when it has made a lot of correction in the dip for quite some time. I have noticed this several times which make it almost as if the is the pattern bitcoin follows. Same thing is happening now. If you look at how long the price has been down below $90k, i am having the thought of a massive rise before the end of the year. Although speculations like $500k is too optimistic to me for this year. Only 200k looks more realistic to me. Dont be fooled by the new because it can either cause a rise or a fall in the market.

[JoyMarsha]

i continually keep being asked when the 2025 ATH might be and if we already missed it, based on any data, stat or knowledge i have
and i keep saying this:
the 2013 ATH happened 517 days after the 2012 halving
the 2017 ATH happened 557 days after the 2016 halving
the 2021 ATH happened 547 days after the 2020 halving

the average of these are: 540 (basically 1.5years (365+182=547))
2024 halving april 19th + 540 = oct 11th 2025 (or 1.5yr=oct18th)

so the short answer is .. not yet

i add the caveat that 2021 had a "double hump" where the first trajectory to NEAR ATH was just 341 days after 2020 halving
2024 halving april 19th + 341 = march 26th 2025

so the short answer is .. not yet

long answer: probably any time between march and november 2025.. so, not yet

Thank you for this. I am saving your Bitcoin price analysis for future reference so that I can keep an eye on it for what will happen in the last quarter of this year, and other halving years to come in the future

I believe we can say that, what we have seen happened more than twice; we can't call it a coincidence again. We can call it a pattern.

If Bitcoin has given its ATH after 500 + days after halving of 2012, 2016 and 2020. I am sure we are going to witness the same thing happen after 500+ days of 2024 halving. Which 500+ days is the last quarter of this year

[Franctoshi]

The fact remains that it's impossible for anyone to exactly tell when ATH will be, but from the previous bull market cycles it took place the year after l halving, November of 2021, which if we reference back to the previous cycle, it's this year 2025 we are supposed to hit an ATH, and which should likely fall around the month of June - November of 2025. However, this year we have witnessed a lot events and changes in the market, firstly Bitcoin Broke its previous ATH before halving, and secondly a crypto/Bitcoin strategic reserve is being passed into law, and plus the Bitcoin ETFs which was also approved this cycle,  so we've already saw a bit of change in the market dynamics, who knows what is ahead of us? if we will see ATH earlier or later than expected.

[uchegod-21]

The fact remains that it's impossible for anyone to exactly tell when ATH will be, but from the previous bull market cycles it took place the year after l halving, November of 2021, which if we reference back to the previous cycle, it's this year 2025 we are supposed to hit an ATH, and which should likely fall around the month of June - November of 2025. However, this year we have witnessed a lot events and changes in the market, firstly Bitcoin Broke its previous ATH before halving, and secondly a crypto/Bitcoin strategic reserve is being passed into law, and plus the Bitcoin ETFs which was also approved this cycle,  so we've already saw a bit of change in the market dynamics, who knows what is ahead of us? if we will see ATH earlier or later than expected.

These changes you mentioned are what is making me believe that we are not in the bear season yet. If bitcoin could make massive movement when much global good news are not experienced, how about now there is Bitcoin ETFs, Strategic reserve and more. There is definitely gonna one more upward trend before we could see the bear market. I didn't come up with this through charts or candle sticks analysis, but with a common sense which also might not hold water most times in crypto.

[Pandorak]

Before I stumbled in this thread of franky1 bull run prediction, I have never seen such a prediction. The highest I saw from last year was $173k project but the expectation later faded away and we were hoping for $120k for ATH. But when I saw Frank talking about $300k to $400k, it sounded so huge for me and I couldn't comprehend. But when bitcoin dipped from $109k to the area of $80k, that was when I started reading articles in the internet suggesting that bitcoin could make upto $500k rally. I do not actually understand how this happens but the news is gaining wait in the internet.

Everyone is happy when discussing ATH BTC, trying to speculate with various analysis and reasons, no one really knows the future, so don't be fooled by it. Just like when the price of Bitcoin was $109k, people said that Bitcoin will go to $150k in the near future, but in reality the price is falling slowly and in a sideaway state until now, maybe we have entered a bear market phase, who knows.

To be honest, i also expected Bitcoin to reach a price of $200k or even $500k but my personal analysis refused and realized that sometimes things don't work out the way we want them to.

[Richbased]

The year is still very much young to say that we have gotten the ATH for the year already, we still have about 9 months left before the year will end which means that there is every possibility for the price of bitcoin to hit a new ATH again this year. It might look like there is no much activities or events that can prompt the price to skyrocket and reach a new ATH but let us not forget how the price performed in previous years when it got to times when we almost lost hope of a new ATH but it appeared at a time we least expected it to happen. However, those who will be worried for a new ATH are those who want to sell and make some profits from their investment but for long term hodlers, they are more concerned about acquiring more bitcoins to their portfolio and hodl because even if the price hits a new ATH they won't sell.

[JeffBrad12]

really like the prediction, looks like market is trying to squeeze liquidity and liquidate long position as well so that moving on forward market can easily pump price beyond ATH.
I still don't believe that the ATH for this cycle is around $120k even though it's in itself is already really high if we're seeing the price of bitcoin at peak bearish where it's only $18k.
but imagine if somehow price goes to $180k and beyond, easy 10x just from a cycle.

and I'm sure MSTR and other big financial institutions including blackrock are still accumulating bitcoin for reasons, they definitely know something and I suspect, another higher ATH.

[milewilda]

The year is still very much young to say that we have gotten the ATH for the year already, we still have about 9 months left before the year will end which means that there is every possibility for the price of bitcoin to hit a new ATH again this year. It might look like there is no much activities or events that can prompt the price to skyrocket and reach a new ATH but let us not forget how the price performed in previous years when it got to times when we almost lost hope of a new ATH but it appeared at a time we least expected it to happen. However, those who will be worried for a new ATH are those who want to sell and make some profits from their investment but for long term hodlers, they are more concerned about acquiring more bitcoins to their portfolio and hodl because even if the price hits a new ATH they won't sell.

Why people are really just that too much impatience in regarding about this bull run? Yes, this could neither be happening for this year or not, no one really knows but presuming on what happened in the past and with those previous cycles then we can really say that it might happen on this year. We are still on Q1 and starting tommorow for that Q2 and people will really be that wanting to see for this Q3 on which this will be that all been waiting for. For those people whom you do able to convince or share out such information about crypto and made out some investment then you can expect that they might be asking you about for this year and since they do have that less experience then they would really be keeping on asking on when it would happen. Actually i've been experiencing it now with my friends and some other relatives on which it do really gets me irrirated somehow but explaining them the best as i could about the possibilities on which they do understand somehow. Its really thati mportant that you should really be that explaining it to them about on the risks involved when you do explain to them about Bitcoin or crypto then make it sure that you wont really be able to forget about the risks on which they would really be able to get involved with so that you wont really be that getting blamed in the end of the line.

[Baofeng]

The year is still very much young to say that we have gotten the ATH for the year already, we still have about 9 months left before the year will end which means that there is every possibility for the price of bitcoin to hit a new ATH again this year. It might look like there is no much activities or events that can prompt the price to skyrocket and reach a new ATH but let us not forget how the price performed in previous years when it got to times when we almost lost hope of a new ATH but it appeared at a time we least expected it to happen. However, those who will be worried for a new ATH are those who want to sell and make some profits from their investment but for long term hodlers, they are more concerned about acquiring more bitcoins to their portfolio and hodl because even if the price hits a new ATH they won't sell.

Yes, for now time is on our side, as we have 8-9 months to go before we can see how the cycle will be. At current, our all time high is $109k, but there are still a lot of investors or speculators who predict that we will see a huge rally before the end of the year.

So I guess there's nothing wrong on believing that price in the future. On the other hand, what we have in control is to just continue to accumulate as much as we can as this year is very young, so plenty of room to do what's best for us, accumulate->HODL and wait.

[STT]

The part about continually being asked about highs is a warning sign tbh, when people just care about that high price they are ironically calling out that top from which we'll sell.   If thats all people want then we might never get there as the selling can preempt the buying even and we just end up trading downwards.

  I want to buy BTC so I can sell isnt enough reason or power to make all of this asset operate in a positive direction;  this is the phenomena the harshest critics of Bitcoin are really trying to reinforce while saying the whole asset is hollow.
  We do know that isnt true but at times the crowd screaming for highs drowns out more solid usage of BTC and its then its quite fair to be bearish on BTC as speculative hype is empty quite normal to fall like a pan that boils over into just froth no more.

[john_egbert]

The part about continually being asked about highs is a warning sign tbh, when people just care about that high price they are ironically calling out that top from which we'll sell.   If thats all people want then we might never get there as the selling can preempt the buying even and we just end up trading downwards.

  I want to buy BTC so I can sell isnt enough reason or power to make all of this asset operate in a positive direction;  this is the phenomena the harshest critics of Bitcoin are really trying to reinforce while saying the whole asset is hollow.
  We do know that isnt true but at times the crowd screaming for highs drowns out more solid usage of BTC and its then its quite fair to be bearish on BTC as speculative hype is empty quite normal to fall like a pan that boils over into just froth no more.

Investors and money makers are the ones pouring liquidity here and there, mostly, once they are ready and confident - we will see the ATH.

Not when the broader market is not feeling good or Trump embraces the tariff wars

[davis196]

A new Bitcoin ATH would occur by the end of 2025, if two things happen:
1.Trump abandons the stupid "high tariffs on everyone" policies, so that both the crypto and stocks markets become bullish again.
2.Some major positive global event, like the war in Ukraine ending with a good peace treaty and the removal of western sanctions over Russia.
If those two things don't happen, I don't expect a BTC price above 80K-90K USD by the end of 2025.
OP can make calculations about the time range between a BTC halving and a BTC ATH price, but historical data doesn't determine the price of an asset.

[mich]

There is this coworker and he is always asking me when there is going to be a new all time high for Bitcoin. I do not know if he thinks I can see future prices. But this man will ask me when ever he does want to.

I tell him the same thing over each time that I do not know. I do not want him to spend all his fiat and then price goes down. He will never stop telling me it is my fault for making him buy.

[Yaunfitda]

There is this coworker and he is always asking me when there is going to be a new all time high for Bitcoin. I do not know if he thinks I can see future prices. But this man will ask me when ever he does want to.

I tell him the same thing over each time that I do not know. I do not want him to spend all his fiat and then price goes down. He will never stop telling me it is my fault for making him buy.

You are correct, we don't want to give financial advises because we really don't know when is the new all time high or what will be the next movement, it could go either go down and up as the basics price movement. So even if we know how to do technical analysis, it's not exact and it can be invalidated as soon as the market moves on the opposite direction. Maybe the best approach to your office mate is to tell him to just monitor the price because no one can predict what the future brings. Of course we can look at the previous historical logs of Bitcoin and says, that it  could be in the last quarter. But it still going to be a hit or miss.

[Koadharber]

There is this coworker and he is always asking me when there is going to be a new all time high for Bitcoin. I do not know if he thinks I can see future prices. But this man will ask me when ever he does want to.

I tell him the same thing over each time that I do not know. I do not want him to spend all his fiat and then price goes down. He will never stop telling me it is my fault for making him buy.

You are correct, we don't want to give financial advises because we really don't know when is the new all time high or what will be the next movement, it could go either go down and up as the basics price movement. So even if we know how to do technical analysis, it's not exact and it can be invalidated as soon as the market moves on the opposite direction. Maybe the best approach to your office mate is to tell him to just monitor the price because no one can predict what the future brings. Of course we can look at the previous historical logs of Bitcoin and says, that it  could be in the last quarter. But it still going to be a hit or miss.

We are all that being speculators into this market on which there's no one would really be able to tell on where prices would be going and if you are really that trying to give out that kind of assurances or advises and if it turned out that the price wont really be that getting in line on what you had predicted and they have lost money on the process, then they would really be that definitely be that suing you that they have lost money because of you. I have some bad experiences when it comes into this manner on which i have made out some advises but turned out that you are the bad person because they have lost money because of you.

We are now on 2025 on which this supposedly be the bull run year and there's no way that we can really be able to tell on when it would happen. There are those sayings that it wont really be happening on this year on which this do seems possible but well we cant be able to make out some conclusions yet on what would really be happening on this space. Make it sure that you've been that always be attentive on whatever the price do makes on which if you do make out some profits then securing it out will really be the best approach.

[EarnOnVictor]

so the short answer is .. not yet

long answer: probably any time between march and november 2025.. so, not yet

So, people are still following the pattern of the Bitcoin cycle to predict the future when a lot has changed about the coin? I believe this year is a litmus test on that.

I respect your analysis, and that is how it would have performed if all things were the same as before, but a lot has changed, whether we like it or not. Institutions have taken over, we now have more uncertainties around the world, the ETF is there, and even the chart history is no longer correlating with the past ones.

[Stablexcoin]

so the short answer is .. not yet

long answer: probably any time between march and november 2025.. so, not yet

So, people are still following the pattern of the Bitcoin cycle to predict the future when a lot has changed about the coin? I believe this year is a litmus test on that.

I respect your analysis, and that is how it would have performed if all things were the same as before, but a lot has changed, whether we like it or not. Institutions have taken over, we now have more uncertainties around the world, the ETF is there, and even the chart history is no longer correlating with the past ones.

The new pattern is making Bitcoin more complex, it's getting obvious that any investor that wants to succeed in Bitcoin should better not archive reality that having a minimal term approach for your holding may result to big self confrontation, seeing that the market barely follows the usual cycles, Dips will become scary as it may take longer probably more worst hitting bottom causing soft minded investors to begin doubts. Investor now have to build a thicker mind over Dips, taking advantage when the price drops and not minding to hold longer. 

[pawel7777]

We had some signs of revival yesterday and today, the price went from sub $80k up to over $85k. Obviously that is still far away from a rally that everyone is/was expecting, as we are still in the "accumulation" phase, but at least that's a little sign of positive change in the market's sentiment.
Unfortunately, it's pretty obvious that Bitcoin's price does not exist in a vacuum and is very much dependent on outside factors as well as being correlated with stock markets. Which means that any negative news could send it down immediately, and that positive economic outlook is a necessary prerequisite for the BTC bull run to continue.

[TravelMug]

We had some signs of revival yesterday and today, the price went from sub $80k up to over $85k. Obviously that is still far away from a rally that everyone is/was expecting, as we are still in the "accumulation" phase, but at least that's a little sign of positive change in the market's sentiment.

I agree, we never thought that the price will go up to $85k, but it seems that investors have something in their mind. And with that, it's good to see the price going back to $85k and we can only hope that at least at the end of the month, maybe we can go over $90k.

Unfortunately, it's pretty obvious that Bitcoin's price does not exist in a vacuum and is very much dependent on outside factors as well as being correlated with stock markets. Which means that any negative news could send it down immediately, and that positive economic outlook is a necessary prerequisite for the BTC bull run to continue.

But still though, if there is a positive economic news, the market will also reacted positively with full of optimism. And most likely stock investors too are into Bitcoin that's why we have seen some correlations in this cycle, and it doesn't mean that it's bad news for us.