The Trump Dump

[fruktik]

I doubt Trump will back down. He's a very proud man and his ego won't allow him to do that. Also, he believes what he's doing is right for the country; that's the way he sees things, so unless people can help him see things differently, there will be no backing down.

I believe the market will recover, but the tariffs will remain. There might only be reductions in the increase. Inflation will set in, but not a very large one and people will adjust to it with time. Time is going to be a major factor in this. People seem to move on after times like this.
They have already clearly seen that they made a mistake in voting for Trump, even though ego won't let some of them admit it.
Anyone with a right-thinking brain should have known that voting for a man who promised to increase tariffs is crazy.

Quite a few Trump supporters have realized that they made a mistake. They are making public apologies. But what good will that do? Will it solve anything? No, it won't. People should unite and show that this old man's policies are no longer trustworthy. Even some senators can't watch this circus anymore and are taking real action. It is highly likely that Trump will be charged with serious offenses in the near future. That's when there is hope for the speculative markets to recover.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Picking a single event is even more cherry picking,

Of course it is cherry picking because my thesis is that what we call correlations are nothing that exist in reality, they are human projections. For you, from 2020 onwards, there will be observed regularities of which my cherry picking would be an exception (I have chosen the most colorful “de-correlation”) and for me there are no such correlations, they are independent events that in some cases coincide temporally.

and if you had read what I wrote above in other posts, I don't question that there are price movements which are caused by reasons internal to the Bitcoin ecosystem, which of course often lead to divergence with the stock markets.

Yes I had read it and in the same way I could say that I have not denied that in the short term there are similarities, as for example a Fed announcement can push both the S&P 500 and bitcoin price in one direction or the other.

Let's look more closely to the post-2020 movements and correlations:

This is a clear case of two people looking at the same thing and seeing completely different things.

In the periods marked by green circles, there is almost always a positive correlation (the zero-correlation line was "reforced" by me as it wasn't visible) between S&P 500 and Bitcoin. The red circles mark periods of significant negative correlations. The May 2021 event you mentioned is here also quite well visible. And in the rest of the periods I don't see a clear tendency.

We can see that there are long stretches of positive correlations which last several months with only very small "dips" into zero or negative correlation territory. 2023 is the only year since 2020 without a clear positive correlation.

Okay, my thesis was that what we call correlation only exists in the short term and that if we zoom out there is no such correlation. Then you say you do see it since 2020, which is taking a partial sample and we could say cherry picking as well. Within that 5 year sample there are according to you a majority of positive correlations and a few other “negative” correlations which in my words would be a sign that there is no correlation.

I think this is a conceptual thing. You start from the assumption that there is a correlation and your way of analyzing data will confirm your initial concept, in that sense we can say that it is biased. And in the same way I assume that there is no such correlation and we can also say that I am biased in reverse.

For me, the long "correlated" stretches are very unlikely to be a coincidence. But I don't think there is a direct causality, as explained above. It's more related to independent variables like Fed interest rates, general market sentiment etc..

Lol. It just wondered after all the discussion if we are simply saying the same thing in different ways.

[landheer]

I doubt Trump will back down. He's a very proud man and his ego won't allow him to do that. Also, he believes what he's doing is right for the country; that's the way he sees things, so unless people can help him see things differently, there will be no backing down.

I believe the market will recover, but the tariffs will remain. There might only be reductions in the increase. Inflation will set in, but not a very large one and people will adjust to it with time. Time is going to be a major factor in this. People seem to move on after times like this.
They have already clearly seen that they made a mistake in voting for Trump, even though ego won't let some of them admit it.
Anyone with a right-thinking brain should have known that voting for a man who promised to increase tariffs is crazy.

Yes, that's true. After Trump raised trade tariffs, I saw support for him slowly fading, and made his supporters realize their mistakes and challenge Trump for his policies, but everything has gone and in the future there will definitely be difficulties that will be faced, because to make a decision, you need to think twice because it concerns the lives of many people, and Trump will not be trusted because he took bold steps in making decisions.

[Antotena]

Yes, that's true. After Trump raised trade tariffs, I saw support for him slowly fading, and made his supporters realize their mistakes and challenge Trump for his policies, but everything has gone and in the future there will definitely be difficulties that will be faced, because to make a decision, you need to think twice because it concerns the lives of many people, and Trump will not be trusted because he took bold steps in making decisions.

I don't really think people withdraw their support, there was never the support in the first place. Here is the thing, many people don't like Trump but they will rather put their last vote on Trump than wasted it to a woman to become their president because the government already becomes a joke, Biden was sick and like a dead person that is trying his best to leave the office and face his life but many people weren't please with Kamala been the face.

Now that they have made their own choice of bringing back the man they have always hated, the new personal beef isn't longer what they expected after the cook up campaign lies, they are no longer entertaining him anymore and he also doesn't seem to care at this points because he is there already. He is seeing China as a trouble and they don't have what to use to push them that's why he's acting all this but I love the way they are fighting back US.

[takuma sato]

While the markets are connected to bitcoin in most cases, there are special bitcoin situations where it goes up or down without caring about what the market is doing. Like in 2021 we had covid and all markets were down but bitcoin was up, or like in 2018 where nothing special in the world happened but altcoins peaked (and btc did on December 2017).

So we can see that there are many times when bitcoin price goes up, but there are also many cases where bitcoin price moves with the market as well, there is no guaranteed situation in either case, we just have to realize that it doesn't have to be connected 100% of the time. It is connected at some times and it is not connected at other times and we learn to live with knowing when those going to diverge from each other.

In 2017-2018, the stock market also grew thanks to the Fed's loose monetary policy and a fairly positive macroeconomic situation. Meanwhile, the growth of bitcoin and crypto is due to the crypto craze and not dependent on the economy. So, it would not be wrong to say that there was no strong correlation between these two markets at that time.

Likewise, not just bitcoin but the entire stock market was dumped when the pandemic hit. But after the government decided to pump money to save the economy, stocks also recovered and grew, not just bitcoin. The only difference between them is that bitcoin and crypto always have faster and bigger growth rates. So it can be said that during the covid pandemic, both markets were quite closely correlated as both fell when the pandemic hit and both rose when the government pumped money into the economy.

In my opinion, this correlation will become clearer and tighter as governments decide to intervene more deeply in the crypto market with regulations and legal frameworks.  

The interest rates in went from 0,5% to 2,5% during that 2016 to 2019 period. They started lowering before the pandemic, but it was the pandemic that crashed interest rates to 0% as well as the market. This is the classic "cutting into panic" movement as seen in dotcom in 2001, great financial crisis in 2008. Now the question is, how does this lowering of the rates occur in the current time? there will be again another panic cutting event? Or is this a soft landing? we cannot know these things. If they cut rates into panic, the market will crash, but it will pump again as QE+ZIRP is the best antidote for Bitcoin.

If there is no crash, then sidelined money will end up buying and the price will run but will not go up as fast as it would have gone if there was a crash. Im bullish long term in both cases.

[Alpha Marine]

I don't really think people withdraw their support, there was never the support in the first place. Here is the thing, many people don't like Trump but they will rather put their last vote on Trump than wasted it to a woman to become their president because the government already becomes a joke, Biden was sick and like a dead person that is trying his best to leave the office and face his life but many people weren't please with Kamala been the face.

Nah, Trump had a lot of support. The last administration failed in so many ways, so people wanted something different, and that was why it was easy for Trump to have so many supporters. Also, Trump knows how to portray people as the cause of all the problems in the country. He did it in his first term, and it worked, and it worked again this time around.

I agree, if Kamala were a man, a white man, especially one who has achieved what Kamala has achieved in her career and had a campaign like Kamala's, then they would have won the election. But that does not mean Trump didn't have supporters.

[d5000]

Lol. It just wondered after all the discussion if we are simply saying the same thing in different ways.

Possibly

The "Monday volatility" is, in my opinion, an example for the weird correlation between Bitcoin and US stock markets. We're just now experiencing another miniature Trump Dump, although this time Bitcoin's reaction is even less pronounced than the stock markets', but it is there.

There would be almost no reason for increased volatility on Mondays if it wasn't for markets opening which were closed during the weekend, but I have observed it several times that a tendency change occurred after the US markets opened. (I've however not found stats for that. If someone knows 1-day volatility charts for BTC it would be helpful to confirm this idea, I only know the 30/60 day volatility charts from Bitbo ...)

My best bet is that it is a self fulfilling prophecy: Traders have noticed that often Bitcoin followed the stock price in the past 4 years, and thus they tend to sell if the US markets open with falling stocks, and to buy if the stock markets' tendency is bullish. And thus they're reinforcing this correlation - and as it "seems to work", they continue to do it, even without Bitcoin-relevant independent variables being present.

But this only works if there are no "internal" Bitcoin events which "decouple" the Bitcoin price from other markets' influence due to their own dynamics, of course (China mining ban, ETF approval, Terra/Luna, FTX, Segwit/Lightning, MtGox in 2013/14, and so on).

[qurbanshah02]

Trump downfall like this is very dangerous and has caused a lot of damage to people because when the price of Bitcoin was up to $100k this coin is going up a lot, which had gone up to $88 but at that time its price has been very low and has come down to $8. When Bitcoin was slowly going down its price had gone up to $27 but after that it did not go up and today when we see Trump price it has gone down a lot. At that time there were a lot of hopes on Trump and America had a lot of hopes on Trump but now it has fallen so much that people are worried about it.If they had worked hard on this too it could have gone up quite a bit but many people have done it but we haven't seen anything like it.

[STT]

To Bitcoin it should not be a danger because its not a centralized system, I would hope BTC is not reliant in that way but speculative dollar flows is something that will adjust against any speculative asset and BTC in its highest prices will include alot of traders so we've seen that weakness.   Otherwise I expect BTC to be fine on a regular basis and its base price it should not be reacting negatively to what is negative news within a FIAT currency system because its not built to depend on that.
  Market isnt seeing current news as positive nor should it really but comparatively BTC is better off when less challenged by a strong Dollar, its not direct but over time there is some purpose to BTC that shows through in times of political failure which is basically every year but especially noticeable in moments of political interference like now.

[Jegileman]

One thing is certain that I know, this will not last forever and the time for it will also pass. Donald Trump effect cannot make the market to stay this long forever, it is either he is part of it or he’s not part of it. The market looks so dependent of this Trump and his policy since he showed interest in bitcoin. It is high time he’s being boycott and the market moves normally as if nothing happened and his effect will make little or no change to the market movement.

The bitcoin market will not change its mode of operation or consensus because of just a policy of one government, we are facing this now because of the high hopes on him and the market also relaxing on his say before any major movement can happen or take place. Many already see him as the steerer of the bull run which is not suppose to be. I know that soonest, things will get back to normal, but for now we have to play by the card we trusted and ensued most thing on.

[landheer]

One thing is certain that I know, this will not last forever and the time for it will also pass. Donald Trump effect cannot make the market to stay this long forever, it is either he is part of it or he’s not part of it. The market looks so dependent of this Trump and his policy since he showed interest in bitcoin. It is high time he’s being boycott and the market moves normally as if nothing happened and his effect will make little or no change to the market movement.

The bitcoin market will not change its mode of operation or consensus because of just a policy of one government, we are facing this now because of the high hopes on him and the market also relaxing on his say before any major movement can happen or take place. Many already see him as the steerer of the bull run which is not suppose to be. I know that soonest, things will get back to normal, but for now we have to play by the card we trusted and ensued most thing on.

it all depends on each person's belief to believe it, sometimes the effects caused by Trump's words will indeed have an impact and affect the cycle that occurs, although market conditions can change over time, of course that is something that must be considered because many voices say so, and the bitcoin market will continue to run and there are no obstacles even though Trump's statement about tariffs has made some crypto assets sluggish.

[Oluwa-btc]

Many people now regret voting for Trump, possibly even within the crypto community, as we initially rode the hype of his promise to support Bitcoin with crypto-friendly policies. However, I believe what's happening has nothing to do with Trump. Bitcoin has always been independent especially with the stock market. What we're seeing now looks more like a market correction, leading us into a bear market, especially since we already hit an ATH earlier this year.

So just chill. 

It's no use expressing any regrets.Trump initially started off with using and accepting crypto donations for his campaigns,we initially got the message from that kind of acceptance and gesture but the signal was totally ignored.
In other words, Trump's campaign skyrocketed because of crypto and some people literally voted for Trump because of the crypto strategy without foresighting the risks involved.

[philipma1957]

well 95k is better than 77k

here is hoping for 111k soon

[Abiky]

For the time being everything is going to continue showing red. The shock Trump gave to the US economy and the global economy as well is going to dump the markets all over the place.

Then we have big economies retaliating, specially China that is the strongest economy that is also retaliating hard against Trump tariffs by adding its own severe tariffs on anything US made. The consequences of that is going to push all these markets even lower.

Then the combination of inflation and recession that is caused by all this craziness will put its increasing sell pressure on bitcoin and push that down as well...

Of course. We all knew tariffs were going to have a negative impact across markets. Even Donald Trump acknowledged the "short-term pain". Take the current situation as a huge buying opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and other cryptos at a discount.

Right now, the crypto market is bullish because of the "90-day tariff pause". Same goes for the stocks market. But if Trump decides to move full-speed ahead after 90-days, you can rest assured "all hell will break loose". There's nothing we can do other than wait until the dust settles. Hopefully, the global economy will recover soon...

[Swordsoffreedom]

Right now, the crypto market is bullish because of the "90-day tariff pause". Same goes for the stocks market. But if Trump decides to move full-speed ahead after 90-days, you can rest assured "all hell will break loose". There's nothing we can do other than wait until the dust settles. Hopefully, the global economy will recover soon...

I don't blame him because the market is volatile and unpredictable, and I consider this a healthy correction after many days of price increases. But on the trade war, I believe the tariff war will stop because things are going against his thinking. Initially, he thought that other countries, especially China, would make concessions to reach a bilateral deal. But ironically, things did not go as expected and he is facing strong opposition both at home and abroad. That has sent Trump and the Republican Party's approval ratings plummeting, so whether he likes it or not, the trade war has to end.

Trump will have to end this pointless war soon or the Republican Party will lose its advantage because in 2026, the US will enter the midterm elections to re-elect the House of Representatives and the Senate .


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/27/trump-approval-rating-economy-immigration-polls.html

[Abiky]

I don't blame him because the market is volatile and unpredictable, and I consider this a healthy correction after many days of price increases. But on the trade war, I believe the tariff war will stop because things are going against his thinking. Initially, he thought that other countries, especially China, would make concessions to reach a bilateral deal. But ironically, things did not go as expected and he is facing strong opposition both at home and abroad. That has sent Trump and the Republican Party's approval ratings plummeting, so whether he likes it or not, the trade war has to end.

Trump will have to end this pointless war soon or the Republican Party will lose its advantage because in 2026, the US will enter the midterm elections to re-elect the House of Representatives and the Senate .

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/27/trump-approval-rating-economy-immigration-polls.html

Yes. Political pressure against Trump and his Republican Party is increasing each day. Unless tariffs are rolled back, don't expect this to change anytime soon. Perhaps, Democrats will be able to secure a majority in the House during the midterms (2026). We'll see. Besides the trade war, I think Trump has done good in Making America Great Again. Of course, no one is perfect. Consider the "tariffs situation" as a minor mistake that will be long lost and forgotten in the future.

The next step towards global economic prosperity, would be to end the wars between Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas. If Trump achieves that (Peacemaker), then he'll be able to save America and the world for good. Be aware though, that an Indian-Pakistani war is on the rise. The US and its allies must act immediately to prevent this from happening anytime soon. Else, the global economy will continue to deteriorate until there's no point of recovery. The future is uncertain, so I'd hope for the best.

[BenCodie]

The crash was already brewing before Trump. Trump didn't suddenly make changes to policies that effect an otherwise healthy economy and monetary system. He has openly come out and said that a crash is inevitable and he will not prolong that inevitable event. A crash is a necessary thing to happen in order for a healthy rebuild. People have all of the information out there to validate all of what I've just said and to prepare for it, and if they don't, that is on them for not making use of the internet that's available to the entire nation there.

[o48o]

The crash was already brewing before Trump. Trump didn't suddenly make changes to policies that effect an otherwise healthy economy and monetary system. He has openly come out and said that a crash is inevitable and he will not prolong that inevitable event. A crash is a necessary thing to happen in order for a healthy rebuild. People have all of the information out there to validate all of what I've just said and to prepare for it, and if they don't, that is on them for not making use of the internet that's available to the entire nation there.

You are providing zero data to back that up. Not to mention that's against what every respected economists have said.

Saying we have all the info to validate something isn't worth anything, when you had the burden of proof in the first place. And only thing you provided as a context was vague remark from a notorious liar.

As a counter note, kicking all the oversight and watchdogs away is a sure way to build next huge artificial country sized pump and dump.

You think FTX was bad? Think of it being a country with a lunatic in charge without any oversight.

[BenCodie]

The crash was already brewing before Trump. Trump didn't suddenly make changes to policies that effect an otherwise healthy economy and monetary system. He has openly come out and said that a crash is inevitable and he will not prolong that inevitable event. A crash is a necessary thing to happen in order for a healthy rebuild. People have all of the information out there to validate all of what I've just said and to prepare for it, and if they don't, that is on them for not making use of the internet that's available to the entire nation there.

You are providing zero data to back that up. Not to mention that's against what every respected economists have said.

Saying we have all the info to validate something isn't worth anything, when you had the burden of proof in the first place. And only thing you provided as a context was vague remark from a notorious liar.

As a counter note, kicking all the oversight and watchdogs away is a sure way to build next huge artificial country sized pump and dump.

You think FTX was bad? Think of it being a country with a lunatic in charge without any oversight.

So you mean to tell me that before Trump came into power, that the US was on track to become a healthy and strong nation, and would have avoided any form of financial crisis?

Clearly, you are unaware of what causes financial crisis and that it barely has anything to do with the person in power, and is actually to do with economic events and circumstances that stretch far and beyond presidency.

Also, what were the respected economists saying before every other financial crisis? I can sure tell you that they weren't saying a financial crisis was coming.

You want the data? Instead of being a wise guy, ask for it. I have no burden of proof on a forum where I am sharing my opinion, and have no interest in going out of my way to share and cite valuable knowledge that I (and anyone else who is actually studying the economic conditions, data and state of the world) already know based on how you responded, and then on top of that, ironically proceeded to contest what was said with political opinion and also with zero data. The thing is, that I already know (and have done the research to know) that what I am posting is accurate. If you believe it's inaccurate, you are welcome to post the proof to show that it's incorrect (good luck, if what you posted is already your attempt at that).

Trump has already said that crashing the economy was what was necessary. He's said that openly. Anyone who is informed understands why that was said. Only someone who is uninformed (or even a fool) could say that an economic crash only became a possibility just because Trump took the presidential seat.

If you actually want to learn what is behind the next economic crash, go and look at:
- The global and US M2 money supply growth, and look into what happens when the M2 money supply is forced to contract after irresponsible expansion
- How that's effected the world each time that it's been forced to contract.
- China, how much they've expanded their money supply in comparison to other countries, and how they are now being forced to enter deflationary territory.
- Study how that will effect liquidity and markets in the wider world (as well as if the US is forced to do the same thing).
- Look at when the expansion started again (hint, ECB 2014), when other countries joined in, how much it expanded during 2020

It doesn't matter who took that seat, economic circumstances and conditions were growing weaker and weaker prior to him taking power the first time and were not made any better while he was not in power. In fact, ever since the gold standard was abolished by Nixon in the 70's, crashes have been the norm since then. I don't need to share links and cite anything to validate what I just said, you can google and find the research for yourself.

After you've done the research and study that you clearly haven't already, feel free to re-evaluate your position that just because Trump got into power, is why an economic crash will happen. You can't pin an economic catastrophe on a single person, whilst economic irresponsibility has been conducted by hundreds (if not thousands or more) of greedy banks and corrupt people at the top. Have you forgotten why Bitcoin was created to begin with?

[Free Market Capitalist]

It seems that what was the Dump is not so much anymore. The stock markets are recovering quite a bit, probably because Trump has had to back off from his initial idea. Some say it is part of a premeditated plan, as he described things like that in the Art of the Deal, but it is clear to me that at least in part he has had to sheathe measures he was planning to do.