Institutions may be diversifying their investments by selling gold and investing in crypto assets like bitcoin, which is not surprising. Because their goal is profit and with the success of MicroStrategy, the remaining companies and organizations will not want to be left behind. But I bet central banks will never sell gold to invest in bitcoin unless you can provide credible evidence. Gold is considered the safest asset in the world and with the world geopolitical situation becoming increasingly unstable, they will hoard as much gold as possible instead of selling it. They would not be foolish to sell a stable asset for an unstable and dumped asset. Because it can have serious consequences for the national economy.
Bitcoin is likely in the ballpark of 1,000x or more better than gold in terms of various money properties, such as scarcity, verifiability, transportability, divisibility, costs of holding/transporting, less need for third-party involvement, etc, yet bitcoin is currently ONLY about 10x gold's price, so it is likely that more and more folks, whether individuals, institutions (including banks) and/or governments, are going to continue to gravitate into bitcoin, either buy just buying bitcoin rather than gold, buying bitcoin derivatives, selling gold and/or selling gold derivatives.
Bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch for at least the last 13 years (I like to start my counting from 2012), and will likely continue to eat gold's lunch into the future, even though there has been some recent revival of gold's price. Sure, it might take 50-200 years for bitcoin/gold to reach the correct prices in which bitcoin is 1,000x greater price than gold.
Regarding your reference to shitcoins, and OP's reference to shitcoins, that seems to be largely irrelevant to consider that anyone woudl be using any shitcoins as a gold substitute.
JJG what are you referring to when you say that bitcoin is currently about 10x gold's price? Total market capitalization would be bitcoin = 1/10th of gold, which makes it even more attractive to investors. Since an nounce is a bit more than $3k, did you have a different unit in mind?
You are correct. I made a mistake, since I was referring to bitcoin's market cap as compared with gold's market cap, and I had meant to say that bitcoin is currently about 1/10th of gold's valuation, so relative to gold bitcoin has around 10,000x to go in order to be approximately at a fair market value, which might take 50-200 years to play out, perhaps?
I edited my above post to show the correction
to say 1/10th..
not 10x.But anyway since 2010 or 2011, gold approximately doubled in price, which means it went 2x. In my opinion this is one of the most interesting questions which we can't get a definite answer to. How much of gold's lunch has bitcoin been eating in the last 15 years?
I am not sure how much we need to get into details, since there are likely quite a few ways to measure it, yet even gold's value has been perverted by the various inaccuracies involved with our using the dollar as our measuring stick.
I suppose that we could find a basket of goods and then try to compare at various points in time, and I surely don't even like to measure bitcoin prior to 2012, since I think that is a bit unfair since bitcoin barely had a price at that time. It is llikely even unfair today since bitcoin is still a very immature asset class, yet even if the whole game is unfair, and bitcoin is likely going to continue to grow stupendously based on it being an immature asset, as individuals, we likely should be trying to take advantage of such unfairness and surely one thing that really is fair about bitcoin is that it is available to everyone and anyone as long as they have some kind of a discretionary income that they can muster up to buy some bitcoin... sure gold is available to everyone and/or anyone too, even though surely gold is a lot less liquid than bitcoin and also we can look at the varying other monetary properties (such as scarcity, verifiability, transportability, divisibility, costs/abilities in holding it and other monetary qualities) to see each of the ways that bitcoin is multiples (if not magnitudes?) better than gold and in the aggregate likely in the arena of 1,000x better than gold.
Gold, as I said, only doubled, but where would it be if bitcoin didn't exist?
Similar numbers with the overall stock market. Some of the assets are barely keeping pace with the debasement of the dollar, to the extent that we can even measure the debasement of the dollar accurately. We have so many assets and/or goods and services that are wrongly priced due to various perversions in our measuring stick (to the extent that we accept the dollar as a potentially reliable measuring stick).
I hate to combat you on your hypothetical because the "what if not bitcoin" questions remain more academic than reality, even though sure sometimes there is nothing wrong with speculating abstractions.
Sure it is possible that gold would have had done better, and there are so many regular folks who may well have had lost a lot of hope if it were not for bitcoin bringing some hope that our various monetary systems and society might have some kind of a life boat.. but yeah, the "what ifs" still are difficult to answer since bitcoin has also affected our current hisorical trajectory, even though bitcoin still seems like such a small sized asset as compared to verymany of the worlds assets and even bitcoin's current addressable market is around $1 quadrillion.. and some of us (Including yours truly) believe that bitcoin is likely going to facilitate the growth in its own addressable market beyond $1 quadrillion.. since many times inventions/discoveries/paradigm shifts allow extra value to be created thinking about electricity, the automobile, the refrigerator, the internet and a bunch of other technologies that changed the way value was expanded..
I believe the market share that bitcoin took away from gold is massive. Bitcoin has disrupted this standard routine for those who are seeking value preservation and therefore just bought gold. Those times are over, not for everyone obviously, but the interest in bitcoin is growing and if something out of nowhere at that speed can make it to $2 trillion market cap, I think it is more likely it will grow to $20 trillion market cap than it will drop to $0.2 trillion market cap. There is a reason for its sustainable rapid growth and I call it sustainable because if anything, volatility could not spread enough fear to stop its ascent.
These are all reasonable speculations.
As for the shit coins that were brought up here, there is probably a lot of lobbying and insider things going on when institutions or governments announce that they will be looking into bitcoin and shit coins. Surprise surprise that MSTR is bitcoin only...
There are always going to be various kinds of shitcoins, and sometimes good people will get sucked into losing their money through such scams, and they sometimes might even make money and get deluded into thinking that the shitcoins are the real thing blah blah blah... so there are going to aways be differings of opinion about value and where to invest value, time and energies... and sometimes the less valuable assets will win in short-term timelines. .. .. and sure even with bitcoin, it is not guaranteed to concur, even though it seems several multiples, magnitudes, even 1,000x greater than any possible current competitors.
The biggest secret is that banks buying crypto a lot not gold the gold is for retail buyers.
How do you know if it's such a huge secret? Do you have a private channel where bankers talk to you about their plan or something? I don't know, it sounds like you're just seeing what you want to see. It doesn't make sense for them to abandon gold even if they're going to buy more crypto, because it has a good record for a hundred years now. Most people still don't think crypto is as safe as gold, so there's a huge chance they'll just withdraw their money from the bank if they know about this.
I would think that some banks will move over to bitcoin more quickly than others, and sure some of the laggards will stay with gold.. and end up being losers.. but they can do what they like if they think that gold is superior to bitcoin merely because it has a longer history and a lot of in trenched network systems around it, but bitcoin is going to continue to eat gold's lunch and continue to attract movement into it... so you can live in a fantasy all that you like in regards to considering that gold has any meaningful chance against bitcoin, including that we have already seen bitcoin gaining market share while gold is largely stagnant.. and the value will continue to flow into bitcoin, the superior and the more sound of monies... compared to any monies, including gold.
By the way joniboini, on a personal level hopefully you are not allocating any more than 10% of your bitcoin size to gold, and even 10% may well be too much, but if you cannot help but to be in love with such shiny relic metal, then that is your choice, and also in regards to your forum registration date, you have been here nearly 2 whole cycles, so hopefully you have stacked up enough bitcoin during that time and you are not stuck in bitcoin denial ways, whether you are considering gold or any of the other traditional investment areas (or even shitcoins) rather than making sure that you have enough (or more than enough) bitcoin.. which it can take a while to build up a decently sized bitcoin stack, even if you are focused on bitcoin, yet if you don't really understand bitcoin and you think that there is value in gold (relative to bitcoin - meaning holding more than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment in gold) then you may well just have to end up learning the hardway, and of course, each of us has to live with the consequences of our own investment choices to the extent that we have discretionary income and we are able to invest into bitcoin as compared with assessing other places that we might choose to allocate time, energy and/or value. Hopefully, in your nearly 2 cycles of being registered on the forum, you have figured out the value of bitcoin and you are not overly distracted by shiny metal relics or otherwise distracted into inferior places to put your time, energies and value.
