There are people who want bitcoin and people who want to trade bitcoin without regard to the important characteristics of it. And the ones with futures etc can end up being burned.
You're making an important observation.
When there's huge open interest in Bitcoin futures, it means a lot of capital is tied up in contracts rather than the underlying Bitcoin itself. If the same capital were actually used to buy physical (spot) Bitcoin instead of derivatives:
Spot Demand Surge → Buying spot Bitcoin would directly push up demand, reducing available supply on exchanges. That would likely drive the price much higher, especially since Bitcoin supply is capped at 21M.
Futures vs. Spot Dynamics → Futures allow traders to speculate without touching real Bitcoin. They can go long or short, often with leverage, and the contracts can be cash-settled (no Bitcoin ever changes hands). This creates what you call “fake futures” — exposure to Bitcoin's price without actual BTC backing it.
Price Discovery Distortion → Heavy futures trading can sometimes suppress or amplify volatility without a proportional move in the spot market. Some critics argue that this “paper Bitcoin” dilutes true price discovery, similar to how “paper gold” futures are said to affect gold markets.
Impact if Converted to Spot → If even a fraction of that open interest moved into physical Bitcoin, liquidity could thin quickly and spark a sharp supply shock. That's why analysts often say, "It only takes a small shift from derivatives to spot to trigger massive upside in BTC."
👉 In short: huge futures OI reflects trader speculation, but if that capital flowed into spot, Bitcoin's price could react explosively due to its limited supply.
