2028 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Hispo]

I could be completely wrong about it, but it seems possible the staff of this bookie to be doing this long term betting thing on the presidential election of the United States for the sake of accessing liquidity. It would be a smart way to get money from people which they do not expect them to move in at least three years, which is a considerable period of time.
If the volume is high on that book in pacticular, it could be translated on millions of dollars being given to them and they would not need to worry about settle down things in three long years.

It feels almost as if people are actually giving a loan to whoever is behind this service. Just another reason for us to be careful where we decide to deposit our money on.
If this market was available in a shady bookie with little or not reputation, I would stay as far away as possible from it.

[alani123]

It'll be funny to see gambling sites include a third term for trump eventually.
Or are these markets annulled if the constitution is Trumped? 

I think it's too early but also with all the unprecedented shit going on I wouldn't be surprised at least seeing some delay for the elections taking placeme.

Probably low turnout is still going to be a thing but ideally I'd like some vital third party to shake the system a little bit. This should start in mid terms really.

[cabron]

It'll be funny to see gambling sites include a third term for trump eventually.
Or are these markets annulled if the constitution is Trumped? 

I think it's too early but also with all the unprecedented shit going on I wouldn't be surprised at least seeing some delay for the elections taking placeme.

Probably low turnout is still going to be a thing but ideally I'd like some vital third party to shake the system a little bit. This should start in mid terms really.

Is it even allowed in their constitution to have 3rd term?
But I remember there is a bet on polymarket asking whether Trump is going to declare martial law or not. I think its possible because of the riots happening.

In the last election, people are really waiting for the result in which they also bet ahead of time. Maybe it will also work for the casino after all people are eager to replace Trump.

[stompix]

To bet on the next president long before the election, bookmakers must provide some privileges to players in case of their correct choice. I wonder if anyone wants to wait so long that they can do without the amount of money they bet on the next president?

If you're sure JD Vance will win, you already have your reward in the odds; if he wins the Republican nomination, we won't be 3.5 before that and now ay he will be lwoer than 2.0 if he is seen as a favorite, same as if you think AOC will be nominated, 10x now versus maybe 3.5-4 is she wins the nomanations is already a 2.5x if you cashout even before the voting.

It'll be funny to see gambling sites include a third term for trump eventually.

He's not going to do that, he knows himself there are limtis to the shit he cna get awya with it and then there is the age factor, he would be 87 by the time he finishes his second term, no way he will feel like runnign again and now ay his own people would let him run or try to ammend the cosnituttion for this.

There is a market for this:
https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-repeal-presidential-term-limits
I would have easily buy a NO option on this but it's a win of 2.4 cents for a dollar
https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announce-run-for-3rd-term
This is 5%, but it locks your money for the whole year. I'd be reaching the same gains with a treasury deposit.

[Sithara007]

Is it even allowed in their constitution to have 3rd term?
But I remember there is a bet on polymarket asking whether Trump is going to declare martial law or not. I think its possible because of the riots happening.

In the last election, people are really waiting for the result in which they also bet ahead of time. Maybe it will also work for the casino after all people are eager to replace Trump.

There is no chance that Trump will run for a third term. Already this guy is close to 80 years old and in case he gets elected in 2028, then by the end of his term he will be close to 90 years old. But that is a separate discussion. Trump can't run because as per the constitution of the United States, an individual is only permitted two terms. Barack Obama was very popular by the end of his second term. But he refrained from running for a third term, because he understood that as per the constitution he is not allowed to do so.

[coin-investor]

I do not know why Hulk Hogan, Dana White, Lebron James and other celebrity names landed in the choices but its still unpreductable for me, Trump is on the middle of the middle east campaign and whatever the outcome of his campaign and what he will do in the next four years will give us a clue on the next potential candidates.
If he gets the approval of the majority of Americans, the strong candidate will likely come from his party if not then the nominee of the Democrats is the strong candidate.

[Hispo]

Is it even allowed in their constitution to have 3rd term?
But I remember there is a bet on polymarket asking whether Trump is going to declare martial law or not. I think its possible because of the riots happening.

In the last election, people are really waiting for the result in which they also bet ahead of time. Maybe it will also work for the casino after all people are eager to replace Trump.

There is no chance that Trump will run for a third term. Already this guy is close to 80 years old and in case he gets elected in 2028, then by the end of his term he will be close to 90 years old. But that is a separate discussion. Trump can't run because as per the constitution of the United States, an individual is only permitted two terms. Barack Obama was very popular by the end of his second term. But he refrained from running for a third term, because he understood that as per the constitution he is not allowed to do so.

I think in previous years, presidents of the United States used to have the possibility to get elected indefinitely and not restricted to two terms as they are today.
If I recall correctly, that was a constitutional amendment which was passed in order to secure the western democracy model of the United States and avoid presidents from becoming kings, who may want to govern until their death. Something which is  common in third world countries where a president gets used to being in power and make sure to stay in power by legal and illegal means, here in Venezuela we have suffered from those situations in which presidents are constitutionally elected but after so many years on power, they get corrupted and don't want to abandon power, becoming tyrants.
In that sense, I believe the constitutional amendment in the USA was the right call to preserve democracy in that country.

[mv1986]

Yup, no reason to think you've seen it wrong, we actually have bookies taking odds on the next president election!!!
And if you can't think of a name right off the bat, don't worry... you do have a lot of choices, and when I say a lot, it is a LOT!

~

First of all, who says there will be any elections at all in 2028? And secondly, why is Donald Trump not on the list? On some days he says he will change the constitution and on other days he says he will be done after his second term. For fun reasons, he should have been on that list too

Anyway the list stirs an interesting discussion. JD Vance @3.75, I think that is too optimistic. I think 3.75 would be too optimistic for any candidate unless it would be a president in charge with a second term still being possible.

It's like Kanye West @100.00 is ridiculous although it is still America and everyone can do it as we now know. Many of the odds don't make sense.

@stompix which bookie is this list from?

[stompix]

@stompix which bookie is this list from?

Betfair
https://www.betfair.ro/sport/politics

And in case people think it's still early, there is a bit of betting goign on, odds have started to move

11 June

26 June


So, about two weeks since the first screenshot and Vance is easing into 3.5. all the rest are going up..
Well, who knows, maybe a die-hard Republican thinks making a 3.5x in 3 years from now is better than  ETFs.

First of all, who says there will be any elections at all in 2028?

The bet is voided, simple as this!
And no, Trump will not run, nor will he crown himself dictator or king or Sith Lord or anything.

[KTChampions]

Betfair
https://www.betfair.ro/sport/politics

And in case people think it's still early, there is a bit of betting goign on, odds have started to move

11 June

26 June


So, about two weeks since the first screenshot and Vance is easing into 3.5. all the rest are going up..
Well, who knows, maybe a die-hard Republican thinks making a 3.5x in 3 years from now is better than  ETFs.

First of all, who says there will be any elections at all in 2028?

The bet is voided, simple as this!
And no, Trump will not run, nor will he crown himself dictator or king or Sith Lord or anything.

I think it's better to track the dynamics on the polymarket.
Vance looks like a favorite (even though he's an asshole) simply because he has people behind him who nominated Trump. If the elections were in a month, I'd bet on Vance even with 1.1 odds. In the long term, even with such a high coefficient, this bet is hardly justified - Trump managed to screw up so much in the first 5 months that I'm not at all confident in the future of the Republicans.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Without a doubt this is the betting house business, it is logical, right now in the USA they are going through many things , Mixed Feelings and changes that generate anger in some and other things that is why now I have no Doubt that these surveys are already there , if they Ask me to make a Prediction I would not do it for anything , there is still time for Trump to continue Doing things where they elevate or condemn him in order to be Elected again or not.

[justinlamode]

there is still time for Trump to continue Doing things where they elevate or condemn him in order to be Elected again or not.

The pool is favoring JD Vance based on the odd, but I agree with you that there is still a long time ahead and the success of JD Vance is tied to the success of this present administration under Donald Trump. If Donald Trump flexes his muscle so well as someone that is not running again, he might be so tough that he will be seen as a dictator which is something American do not won. Guess who will face the music, any candidate that secures the Republican ticket.

[imamusma]

Without a doubt this is the betting house business, it is logical, right now in the USA they are going through many things , Mixed Feelings and changes that generate anger in some and other things that is why now I have no Doubt that these surveys are already there , if they Ask me to make a Prediction I would not do it for anything , there is still time for Trump to continue Doing things where they elevate or condemn him in order to be Elected again or not.

I don't think Donald Trump can run for a third term in 2028, even though he has expressed his desire, I think it's just to please his base. It's not easy to change the constitution, it's almost impossible. I don't know all the names on the list, but some of them seem like jokes, such as Taylor Swift and LeBron James. I think the Democratic candidate will get more sympathy and support in the upcoming election, especially because of Trump's often controversial policies. As time goes by, I'm sure the list will be updated and only a few of them will be successful as presidential candidates.

[Sanitough]

Also yes, you can bet on:
- James Lebron
- Taylor Swift
- Hulk Hogan  

LOL, this is insane. Why would a bookie include these names in the betting line? Isn’t that kind of misleading?

They already have odds listed even when official filings haven’t even started yet. That’s why you really need to follow politics closely  or else you’ll fall into the trap of those tempting high odds. I think it’s still too early to bet on this kind of market, but thanks anyway for giving us an early look at who might run in the next election.
By the way, if people are already not satisfied with Trump, I doubt his son has any real shot at winning if he decides to run.

[Julien_Olynpic]

The wonderful animated series The Simpsons, which is famous for its predictions that come true, once predicted that Trump would win for the third time and that he would have a third presidential term. To be honest, I am a little confused because The Simpsons give contradictory predictions. Either Ivanka Trump will follow Donald Trump, or Donald Trump himself will run for a third term. In addition, even The Simpsons can be wrong. For example, in the current election, they predicted the victory of a woman similar to Kamala Harris, but this did not happen. Obviously, many of their predictions come true, but, of course, not all of them. Nevertheless, if someone from the Trump family wins the election after Donald Trump, it will be a small sensation.

[kotajikikox]

Also yes, you can bet on:
- James Lebron
- Taylor Swift
- Hulk Hogan  

LOL, this is insane. Why would a bookie include these names in the betting line? Isn’t that kind of misleading?

Anyone who bets on any of the three probably are just fooling around. But in case it actually happens, they will also be the ones to be the happiest. Anyway, we have heard of Elon Musk gearing up to make his own political party he says but then it occurred to me that he is not even a natural born US citizen and neither are his parents. So he is not eligible to run for presidency.

[Sithara007]

I think it's better to track the dynamics on the polymarket.
Vance looks like a favorite (even though he's an asshole) simply because he has people behind him who nominated Trump. If the elections were in a month, I'd bet on Vance even with 1.1 odds. In the long term, even with such a high coefficient, this bet is hardly justified - Trump managed to screw up so much in the first 5 months that I'm not at all confident in the future of the Republicans.

Vance maybe the favorite as of now. But a lot will depend on the future of the America Party. If this party, which was launched by Elon Musk a few hours ago can get around 20% of the votes (opinion polls suggest that it would get ~8% of the votes, but I am sure that it will change in the coming weeks and months), then it will pose a challenge to the GOP. There is no doubt that vast majority of the votes for AP will come from the former GOP supporters, while Democrats have a solid vote base with their core demographic groups such as African Americans, Hispanics and LGBTQ. 

[alani123]

Through history there have been 4 vice presidents that were later elected to hold office as president.

It's rare but not impossible. I'd say out of this entire list JD is the only person with some significance to likely run for this position.
We have a long time since then but I feel like since both parties will be holding primaries it's going to be an interesting process. Bets this eun will be more complicated because both parties will have to go through the election process.

In the meantime it's important to also observe the midterms to see if democrats can get ahead or not.

[Ishicryptic]

I guess that this is a next level for prediction bet, although I think that it is quite early to start betting on who becomes the next president of America, but here it is people can actually stake their money earlier. I suppose that the prediction site will hold bettors prediction stakes till after the election before they can credit the winners, if it's so that means that it is a good business plan for the prediction site, they have enough time to invest the funds. I don't have a favorite on the list but Vance, could have a higher chance if he contest and that will depend on how Trump, administration succeeds because he is an integral part of it.

[Smartprofit]

2028 is not soon. After all, it is only 2025 now and there are still 3 years until the new US presidential elections. In addition, extraordinary events, the so-called black swans, may occur. As a result, such scenarios as the collapse of the United States, early US presidential elections, or the abolition of the post of US president are possible. The probability of these scenarios is not very high, but it is not zero. In any case, we still have a lot of time to think about our decision regarding betting on this political event. For now, I believe that the current US vice president will be the next US president. The Democrats currently do not have any bright candidates for the post of US president. However, I repeat that 3 years is a huge period of time. During this time, new candidates for the post of US president may appear who are not yet on the list. Now Elon Musk has announced the creation of a new political party. Perhaps Elon Musk's supporters will also nominate their candidate.  Also, the Democrats will probably take advantage of all the mistakes of the Republicans and prepare a young and promising candidate for the US presidency during this time. Thus, in my opinion, it makes sense to wait at least until 2027 and then plan bets on this political event.