CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog

[fr33d0miz3r]

If you think 450-470 is iv/III then I think that's a pretty good reading.

yep. So, if it works out, we gonna have a weekend pump, which is pretty good for closing the weekly candle  




Also, every EW count should be compatible with important EMAs' support/resistance levels. It works very well for me.

[1713581962]

1713581962

[chessnut]

Nice chart. But now something to consider, bottom of wave iv is then very close to top of wave one. we should not expect pin point accuracy, so maybe in this case, we should prepare for a breach of 440. That would be very bearish. I would be wary of this only if 480 is broken.

[fr33d0miz3r]

Nice chart. But now something to consider, bottom of wave iv is then very close to top of wave one. we should not expect pin point accuracy, so maybe in this case, we should prepare for a breach of 440. That would be very bearish. I would be wary of this only if 480 is broken.

But we should now have a great support at $464 (300 EMA), and going to $450 is not mandatory.

But if we break the $464 support, bear is our friend again.

[chessnut]

Nice chart. But now something to consider, bottom of wave iv is then very close to top of wave one. we should not expect pin point accuracy, so maybe in this case, we should prepare for a breach of 440. That would be very bearish. I would be wary of this only if 480 is broken.

But we should now have a great support at $464 (300 EMA). If we break it, then yes, bear is our friend now again.

yes we should, but our analysis will be tested within $20 range. if it hits 440 we should be prepared for that, it is not far away.

[fr33d0miz3r]

How about this possible trendline? We are sitting on it right now   Pump in 3... 2... 1...

[chessnut]

  I like the way you are thinking  

Pimped up my chart lol

[fr33d0miz3r]

How about this: pump to $667 and then a correction to $540 which would be a 200 EMA support test and a 0.382 fib level.

[fr33d0miz3r]

a blow out fifth wave would make me a happy chappy  

Sorry, we also have a 100-day EMA at 567. So, the projection below would be more correct, I guess.
Also, the end of 4th wave would be at 0.618 fib level in this case  




AND: Pump to $700 and then a correction to 567 or 540 would draw us a big inverted H&S pattern on the daily, which would cause a massive panic buy  

Something like this:

[fr33d0miz3r]

hey, 1k wall on Stamp, 

which wall?

[fr33d0miz3r]

... LOL its at $202.... ages ago. nvm.

Oh bitcoin you so crazy 

[RyNinDaCleM]

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.

It would be what is known as a leading diagonal. It can be an A or a 1. It has a structure similar to an impulse (5-3-5-3-5) except it usually has overlapping 1 and 4 waves.

I deleted my post because it's not technically a wedge by EW standards since the 1 makes a lower low than the 3

Also, it's not a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
But the daily candle of the end of the wave 1 closed exactly on the lower trend line.

That's what invalidates it! All waves must touch the line without breaking it. The only wave that can break the line is 5. That's called a throw-over. The same rules apply with triangles. The E wave can fall short or it can break the line as long as it doesn't go beyond the C.

[fr33d0miz3r]

If our bullish counts become invalidated, then we could see a wedge which acts as a wave C:



So, there could be a $266 retest.

[chessnut]

After a quiet and stagnant day, the bidding begins as expected  I dont think we will need to worry about a 266 retest. I don't think that can happen.

[fr33d0miz3r]

After a quiet and stagnant day, the bidding begins as expected   I dont think we will need to worry about a 266 retest. I don't think that can happen.

But don't trade until we break the 200-day EMA. There is another huge bearish possibility:

[chessnut]

After a quiet and stagnant day, the bidding begins as expected  I dont think we will need to worry about a 266 retest. I don't think that can happen.

But don't trade until we break the 200-day EMA

thats not my style  i buy low with leading indicators. I would never buy into a fifth wave using a lagging indicator.

[fr33d0miz3r]

The same bullish count for LTC is already invalidated.
Prepare for dump.

[chessnut]

Our bullish counts are already invalidated on LTCUSD.
Prepare for dump.

I noticed that  let go of my long and shorting to 465

[CryptoWaves]

Our bullish counts are already invalidated on LTCUSD.
Prepare for dump.

I noticed that   let go of my long and shorting to 465

Hourly bitstamp MACD just made a bullcross. Needs confirmation with another histogram bar above zero. Going to see if this produces a bounce.

Based on the fib ratios of the move up, I am still looking for a wave v move up to complete wave (1). The uptrend channel on the 15 minute chart was broken so I extended it with another. If it falls out of this new channel then I will revise the count.

Someone mentioned not buying for fifth waves earlier - I agree with this. It is better to try to catch a third wave move in either direction instead of playing a fifth wave.

Edit: Also note the positive divergence on the 15 min MACD with respect to (wrt for short) Bitcoin price.
Edit2: Had some incorrect calculations on my first 15 min chart. Updated.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/L4xrVkEv/

[chessnut]

fr33d0miz3r this was a good analysis. Im not worries about LTC so much, Im still bullish.

Cryptowaves, Im a scalper, I just took 490-480 and Im thinking of going long again. nice chart!

[fr33d0miz3r]

Another long-term possibility: