CryptoWaves - Elliott Wave Analysis Blog

[prophetx]

just an idea..... this is behaving impulsively.

seems like this may be the one...

[1713291709]

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[CryptoWaves]

Hello everyone! Long absence due to being out of the country for two weeks for work. New post - no EWave count, but I wanted to share this very reliable indicator with you all. Any questions, feel free to shoot and hopefully I'll get some time for an updated EWave count this weekend.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/long-btc-on-daily-momentum-squeeze-indicator/

[prophetx]

I really like this thread hope it comes back alive again soon

[CryptInvest]

Thanks for a great blog. I read constantly.

[CryptoWaves]

Thanks for the comments. I wasn't sure if anyone was still reading.

Here's an update for everyone. Shoot any questions my way in the site comments or in this thread and I'll be sure to address them. Wave count details are on the site!

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-wave-count-july-14th-2014/

[elebit]

Who's Elliott and what's the theory behind this?

You seem to pick out waves by hand, it that not very error prone?

[CryptoWaves]

Who's Elliott and what's the theory behind this?

You seem to pick out waves by hand, it that not very error prone?

Check out the 'Elliott Wave Basics' section on my site.

Applying the wave counts takes a great deal of 'reading' the charts. It's often said that if you get 5 Elliott Wave technicians together, they will all give a different count. Finding the correct count is the difficult part. For example, in my most recent post, theres important price levels that I noted, which if breached, would lead to alternate count variations.

More simply, there's more than one possible wave count at any given time and the one I present on the site is the highest probability based on my view of many indicators.

Before making this thread, I only ever found extremely simplified wave counts with big 1-2-3-4-5, paying no attention to fibonacci ratios or multi level wave degrees. It's very likely that I wasn't looking in the right spots because many other members have shown they know EWave as well.

Check out how well prophetx's count from the top of this thread page worked. 

[CryptoWaves]

Bitcoin price setting up for another directional move. Which way will it break? 

http://www.cryptowaves.com/btc-daily-squeeze-july-18th-2014/

[elebit]

Applying the wave counts takes a great deal of 'reading' the charts. It's often said that if you get 5 Elliott Wave technicians together, they will all give a different count. Finding the correct count is the difficult part.

So the method is never wrong, you just picked the "wrong" waves. Sounds very convienent. It reminds me of astrology. But I will give you the benefit of the doubt. I'll wait a month, and if the results stands I will listen.

[CryptoWaves]

Applying the wave counts takes a great deal of 'reading' the charts. It's often said that if you get 5 Elliott Wave technicians together, they will all give a different count. Finding the correct count is the difficult part.

So the method is never wrong, you just picked the "wrong" waves. Sounds very convienent. It reminds me of astrology. But I will give you the benefit of the doubt. I'll wait a month, and if the results stands I will listen.

Elliott Wave provides a rough roadmap of where price of any instrument may be heading. Looking for critical price levels of previous waves and fibonacci extensions gives a great deal more information than one would have if they just blindly buy or sell their Bitcoin when they have a gut feeling. Going short or long and setting a stop at critical price levels is a great way to use this method.

Look, I've already provided this link on my site that explains a safe way to use EWave to make trades.
http://education.afraidtotrade.com/education/elliott-wave-principle/

From my post last night, I show through my methods that a directional move is coming. It's technical analysis, not EWave work. Combining the two tells us that a wave iii UP or DOWN is coming. If you are unsure about the direction Bitcoin is heading right now then wait for a trend to establish itself and hop on in the direction of that trend once it is more clear, as explained in the link above.

Spelled out even more clearly

• If Bitcoin is in a wave iii down move, price will drop below 608, the wave i down low, before it moves above 642. This is the EWave count from my Thursday post.
• If Bitcoin is in a wave iii up move, price will rise above 642 (an alternate wave i high, if price is finished correcting moving into a new uptrend) before it drops below 608

[CryptoWaves]

Thanks for the comments. I wasn't sure if anyone was still reading.

Here's an update for everyone. Shoot any questions my way in the site comments or in this thread and I'll be sure to address them. Wave count details are on the site!

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-wave-count-july-14th-2014/

The primary count is looking good. No adjustments are needed to the count at this time.

The daily squeeze has not confirmed the breakout to the downside, yet, but it is very close. I will post an update when it triggers.

[prophetx]

Who's Elliott and what's the theory behind this?

You seem to pick out waves by hand, it that not very error prone?

Check out the 'Elliott Wave Basics' section on my site.

Applying the wave counts takes a great deal of 'reading' the charts. It's often said that if you get 5 Elliott Wave technicians together, they will all give a different count. Finding the correct count is the difficult part. For example, in my most recent post, theres important price levels that I noted, which if breached, would lead to alternate count variations.

More simply, there's more than one possible wave count at any given time and the one I present on the site is the highest probability based on my view of many indicators.

Before making this thread, I only ever found extremely simplified wave counts with big 1-2-3-4-5, paying no attention to fibonacci ratios or multi level wave degrees. It's very likely that I wasn't looking in the right spots because many other members have shown they know EWave as well.

Check out how well prophetx's count from the top of this thread page worked. 

that was actually chessnut who did that I PM'ed to see if he was willing to do another

[CryptoWaves]

Bitcoin hourly Elliot Wave count has been updated at the site. Slight modifications were made to the wave count. Still in wave (b) of Minor 2 instead of in wave (c) of Minor 2 as proposed in my most recent update.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-wave-count-august-11th-2014/


Enjoy!

[RyNinDaCleM]

Bitcoin hourly Elliot Wave count has been updated at the site. Slight modifications were made to the wave count. Still in wave (b) of Minor 2 instead of in wave (c) of Minor 2 as proposed in my most recent update.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-wave-count-august-11th-2014/


Enjoy!

I could see this as another possible count!
Still, I have a problem with the major 1. My Bullish count uses it, too, but I just can't get past the clear(er) 3 wave structure up from $339. I have to give it the benefit of the doubt, and accept that the 4 you have labeled in it, though very disproportionate to the 2, might be the count.

Just as an aside; My Bearish count easily counts that as a zig-zag abc (5-3-5 for those not paying attention ) which is why I can't get full-on Bullish yet.  

Good work, CW!

[CryptoWaves]

I have to give it the benefit of the doubt, and accept that the 4 you have labeled in it, though very disproportionate to the 2, might be the count.

Just as an aside; My Bearish count easily counts that as a zig-zag abc (5-3-5 for those not paying attention ) which is why I can't get full-on Bullish yet.  

Good work, CW!

Thanks! I mentioned my issues with the short wave (4)-1 in the July 14th wave count post. Ideally, wave (4) should be the one that drifts sideways and burns time while wave (2) would be impulsive.

The bearish count is great to keep an eye on, though I will not make that a primary or consider it as a high probability option until the 78% retrace of Minor 1 at $415 is lost. I would expect a tremendous amount of buying power to step in that that level. In the short term, the 1-2 bull count and the bearish count both show price moving down.

Just jumped over to my daily squeeze chart that I've highlighted previously. The daily squeeze is setting up again, which is very exciting. I'll update on that as price settles a bit.

[onlyu]

Where is the wave pointing now? Is this a good buy or good sell?

[CryptoWaves]

Where is the wave pointing now? Is this a good buy or good sell?

Please read the last post at my site or my last post in this thread.

[vuduchyld]

CryptoWaves and Ryan, you guys make TA look so damn easy!

I've never been a huge fan for the markets in which I trade.  Information asymmetry, earnings, and events have always seemed to drive price action in my world...it just makes sense to me.  But with BTC, underlying fundamentals are truly less obvious. 

I haven't been watching your work long enough to say for certain that you're market oracles or anything, but you both have a great style of writing about what you are watching that is helpful.

I'm a grown ass man and I'm going to do what I think is right to do, but I think it's interesting that you guys are both looking at some upcoming opportunities if one keeps one's powder dry.  Ryan, as I recall, you're looking at a probably retrace to $540 by late August (which matches a smaller wave that Crypto also has mapped out as possible), and CryptoWaves has us going sub $500 ($415-470 range in September).  You both, as I recall, have $607 as invalidating that count?

I think it's definitely worth watching and maybe keeping a little powder dry.  Thanks for sharing!!!

[RyNinDaCleM]

CryptoWaves and Ryan, you guys make TA look so damn easy!

I've never been a huge fan for the markets in which I trade.  Information asymmetry, earnings, and events have always seemed to drive price action in my world...it just makes sense to me.  But with BTC, underlying fundamentals are truly less obvious. 

I haven't been watching your work long enough to say for certain that you're market oracles or anything, but you both have a great style of writing about what you are watching that is helpful.

I'm a grown ass man and I'm going to do what I think is right to do, but I think it's interesting that you guys are both looking at some upcoming opportunities if one keeps one's powder dry.  Ryan, as I recall, you're looking at a probably retrace to $540 by late August (which matches a smaller wave that Crypto also has mapped out as possible), and CryptoWaves has us going sub $500 ($415-470 range in September).  You both, as I recall, have $607 as invalidating that count?

I think it's definitely worth watching and maybe keeping a little powder dry.  Thanks for sharing!!!

Thanks for the kind words! I don't know about an oracle, but....

I don't want to take over CW' thread as  I have done in the past... He was a good sport about it and I appreciate that! That's why I started my own. But I will field this question since it was toward both of us.
According to his most recent update, CW has invalidation of $607.20 to the top-side and $555.90 to the lower. This is because he has a triangle and if either recent price extremes are broken (wave-b or wave-c), the triangle becomes invalid. His main Bullish invalidation is at $420.27 as is mine (the beginning of the minor wave-(1)). However, since I have an impulsive count taking us down a bit sooner than the triangle scenario, my invalidation is at the wave-1 low which is $607.90. This is because of the rule stating that wave-4 cannot enter the price territory of wave-1 (unless it's a diagonal which it clearly is not).

I hope this clears it up!?

I don't rule out a drop into the $400's, myself, but I wasn't going to post that until the time calls for such a projection. My wave-(C)/wave-1 (Bullish/Bearish respectively) count is just a projection using Fibo based off the currently formed waves and typical targets, so nothing too drastic until the waves decide to start extending. At which time I will revise targets and counts as necessary.

[CryptoWaves]

Bitcoin price moved below the bottom trendline of the triangle that I showed in the previous post. There was no final wave e as I projected, but the triangle is still valid. Price should continue heading lower for wave (c)-2.


Supporting this argument is a daily Squeeze that fired short, meaning downward price action should continue for 6-10 days. The signal is finished once the Momentum (14) indicator goes up for two bars (two days).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q4fWZ9FT/