Before Bitcoin hits 1 000 000 usd, it falls below 10 000 usd

[d5000]

First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).

Interesting theory, although a bit underdeveloped perhaps (a bit of a poor man's Total Addressable Market analysis). But fortunately this one can be debunked quite easily with "hard facts".

There are several studies that imply that the public "Bitcoin acceptance" is even higher than 10% in many important countries, including the US, and about 5-10% in many countries in Europe, Africa and Latin America.

- Crypto.com: 337 million Bitcoin users for late 2024 (there are no newer figures)
- Triple A: Their last report is from 2023, but even back then there were already >10% crypto users in big countries like the US, Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines.

Of course their stats may be inexact but I think the general order of magnitude should be correct.

And of course: We may have a population of 8.x billion. But that includes children, the elderly, and people in rural areas who will probably never need Bitcoin. A 100% penetration would be thus in my opinion more close to 2-3 billion: one main user per family.

Our marketcap also means that every family on Earth owns, on average, about $1000 in Bitcoin. (if we say there are 2 billion families in the world, then the a 2T market cap means exactly that). Yes, the median is probably still 0 but it nevertheless is remarkable.

[philipma1957]

First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).

Interesting theory, although a bit underdeveloped perhaps (a bit of a poor man's Total Addressable Market analysis). But fortunately this one can be debunked quite easily with "hard facts".

There are several studies that imply that the public "Bitcoin acceptance" is even higher than 10% in many important countries, including the US, and about 5-10% in many countries in Europe, Africa and Latin America.

- Crypto.com: 337 million Bitcoin users for late 2024 (there are no newer figures)
- Triple A: Their last report is from 2023, but even back then there were already >10% crypto users in big countries like the US, Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines.

Of course their stats may be inexact but I think the general order of magnitude should be correct.

And of course: We may have a population of 8.x billion. But that includes children, the elderly, and people in rural areas who will probably never need Bitcoin. A 100% penetration would be thus in my opinion more close to 2-3 billion: one main user per family.

Our marketcap also means that every family on Earth owns, on average, about $1000 in Bitcoin. (if we say there are 2 billion families in the world, then the a 2T market cap means exactly that). Yes, the median is probably still 0 but it nevertheless is remarkable.

if 1billion people had at least 1000 worth of btc .

btc would be worth well over 300k.

at this point in time there are around 56 to 65 million btc addresses with money in them.

so 2,000,000,000,000/65,000,000= $30,769.23  is the current average in an address

hard to believe that is true, but pretty sure that is the right average.

as per this thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254914.0


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5254914.msg65753481#msg65753481


so there are only 56 million funded addresses. holding around 20 million coins.

myself I have at least 10 addresses with smaller amounts of coins.

my point is if only 56 million addresses have a part of a coin or more.  and many have 2 or my addresses.

only 56/2=28  million or less own some coin.

or almost no real penetration into the world.


Lets say 5 billion are kids are monster poor and 2 billion are fuck that shit.

this leaves 1 billion that may buy some and only 28 million have do so.

at the absolute most 56 million currently have some and that is certainly way to high as lots of us have multiple addresses .

so 28,000,000/1,000,000,000= only 2.8% own it if the owners all have 2 addresses

or 56,000,000/1,000,000,000=only 5.6% own it if the owners all have 1 address

if your guess of 2 billion is better than my guess of 1 billion

1.4% to 2.8% own it.


Frankly   I think under the 1.4% may be true.

At based on my funded addresses (8 or so). which means 1 million a coin is likely.

[traderethereum]

The market can stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent. What if BTC price goes even to 130 000 or 150 000 before the crash?
If I am right, I need not to take such risk. 

I would love to see that

I will sells Bitcoin and wait for the crash. That will be the best moment to buy using my profit. My Bitcoin amount will be bigger than before because the crash could be deeper.

If the price now suddenly falls below $10,000 and rises to $1,000,000, that will be the best time to accumulate more and hodl it. Then, we will make a big profit especially for those who buy at a low price.

[d5000]

at this point in time there are around 56 to 65 million btc addresses with money in them.

Thanks for your numbers. You're of course correct: the real Bitcoin holders who follow the "Not your keys not your coins" principle and hold their BTC on their own self-hosted (or at least non-custodial) wallet/addresses are much less than the 337 million calculated by crypto.com.

crypto.com bases its estimations on their own database and chain analisis activity about possible holdings of people on other exchanges, i.e. they include many people who hold only IOUs of BItcoin on one of the big exchanges. If I remember correctly, they explicitly state in their methodology that Bitcoin users who are not exchange users almost do not matter, because it's so few of them.

The 30,000$ average "on an address" does not surprise me. There are a lot of well-funded addresses with several entire BTCs.

And yeah, the $1000 average includes almost 1,7 billion families with an exact holding of 0 BTC (if we part from the number of 2 million families I mentioned). That's the nice thing about averages

There may be some other sources than the on-chain held coins and exchange holdings:

- Lightning nodes are currently negligible (less than 50,000).
- sidechains/L2s idem, I don't think that's more than 1 million or so (including centralized chains like Liquid),
- wBTC and other wrapped coins may be a bit more; above all including platforms like Thorchain, they're at least "on chain" on another cryptocurrency.

Then of course the holders of Bitcoin ETF/ETPs, Strategy bonds and shares, and so on.

I think it remains a big challenge to "convert" those holding BTC on exchanges to move them to their own wallets, so we would have "real Bitcoin owners". Maybe it's easier once a big sidechain gets popular. I may start investigating flows of that kind if I get data sources ...

[philipma1957]

at this point in time there are around 56 to 65 million btc addresses with money in them.

Thanks for your numbers. You're of course correct: the real Bitcoin holders who follow the "Not your keys not your coins" principle and hold their BTC on their own self-hosted (or at least non-custodial) wallet/addresses are much less than the 337 million calculated by crypto.com.

crypto.com bases its estimations on their own database and chain analisis activity about possible holdings of people on other exchanges, i.e. they include many people who hold only IOUs of BItcoin on one of the big exchanges. If I remember correctly, they explicitly state in their methodology that Bitcoin users who are not exchange users almost do not matter, because it's so few of them.

The 30,000$ average "on an address" does not surprise me. There are a lot of well-funded addresses with several entire BTCs.

And yeah, the $1000 average includes almost 1,7 billion families with an exact holding of 0 BTC (if we part from the number of 2 million families I mentioned). That's the nice thing about averages

There may be some other sources than the on-chain held coins and exchange holdings:

- Lightning nodes are currently negligible (less than 50,000).
- sidechains/L2s idem, I don't think that's more than 1 million or so (including centralized chains like Liquid),
- wBTC and other wrapped coins may be a bit more; above all including platforms like Thorchain, they're at least "on chain" on another cryptocurrency.

Then of course the holders of Bitcoin ETF/ETPs, Strategy bonds and shares, and so on.

I think it remains a big challenge to "convert" those holding BTC on exchanges to move them to their own wallets, so we would have "real Bitcoin owners". Maybe it's easier once a big sidechain gets popular. I may start investigating flows of that kind if I get data sources ...

Well loyce made the charts.

And yeah if there are only. 56 million truly funded addresses we both know people that have their own addresses have two or three or more.

So a maybe 56/3= 18.667 million actual owners of coin.

I have coin on PayPal
I have coin on kraken
I have addresses of my own.  most of my not so vast wealth is in my own addresses.

but PayPal could be doing fractional reserve of btc
and kraken could be doing fractional reserve of btc
and Binance could be doing fractional reserve of btc.


and the actual number gets multiplied bigly. to 337 million world wide. which is not possible if there are only 56 million filled addresses. with a Total of 20 million coins.

It is hard to read a title like this one from the op as I do not know if it is:

click bait to earn signature.
deliberate distortion to cause a crash
stupidity and people believe it.

well I stack on and I watch coins now at 110k and going up.  glad I got week end dip.

[bitzizzix]

While this question is actually very difficult to answer if Bitcoin drops to $10,000 for any reason, including major events like war, economic crises, and so on, because no one can predict Bitcoin's future with certainty and accuracy, the reality is that Bitcoin has weathered all of them and remains resilient and strong. Therefore, if Bitcoin drops to that price, I would answer that it will never happen. In fact, I would bet it never will. And every drop always presents an opportunity for someone or an investor to buy and accumulate, which will cause the Bitcoin price to rise again.

[Smack That Ace]

Remember we are in the last few months of this year and this is the time when we can expect enthropia in the market for the bull market top, i can expect it will easily go to 150K and beyond and its minimum. 

It depends, and I don't see Bitcoin hitting $150k easily, let alone reaching higher levels, when historically we're only about three months away from the end of the bull run. Bitcoin has been above $100k since January but 8 months have passed and Bitcoin is still trading around $110k, how can we say that the it will easily reach $150k or higher in just 3 short months? This is not an easy task.

The market is driven by many factors, especially macro factors and if unfortunately our economy continues to be unstable for the rest of the year. For example, the Fed doesn't cut interest rates, the tariff war suddenly escalates again, or geopolitical instability flares up. I think forget about bitcoin hitting $150k before the end of the year.

[JaanusRaim]

First reason: Bitcoin price is now clearly overvalued relative the level determined by its public acceptance rate (if 100% acceptance rate means ca one million usd, then nowadays acceptance rate is not clearly 10% but rather something around 1%).

Interesting theory, although a bit underdeveloped perhaps (a bit of a poor man's Total Addressable Market analysis). But fortunately this one can be debunked quite easily with "hard facts".

There are several studies that imply that the public "Bitcoin acceptance" is even higher than 10% in many important countries, including the US, and about 5-10% in many countries in Europe, Africa and Latin America.

- Crypto.com: 337 million Bitcoin users for late 2024 (there are no newer figures)
- Triple A: Their last report is from 2023, but even back then there were already >10% crypto users in big countries like the US, Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines.

Of course their stats may be inexact but I think the general order of magnitude should be correct.

And of course: We may have a population of 8.x billion. But that includes children, the elderly, and people in rural areas who will probably never need Bitcoin. A 100% penetration would be thus in my opinion more close to 2-3 billion: one main user per family.

Our marketcap also means that every family on Earth owns, on average, about $1000 in Bitcoin. (if we say there are 2 billion families in the world, then the a 2T market cap means exactly that). Yes, the median is probably still 0 but it nevertheless is remarkable.

Owning some satoshi in some exchange does not mean that this person accepts BTC at the same rate than (for example) USD. How many there are such persons for whom BTC carries the money functions (medium of exchange, store of value, measure of value and so on) as intensively as fiat money ? Of cause, it is extremely hard to measure, but one thing is sure for me - the percentage is not 10 or even 5. It can be 0.5, 1 or 2.

[d5000]

And yeah if there are only. 56 million truly funded addresses we both know people that have their own addresses have two or three or more.

One shouldn't forget that most members of this forum are in the upper 10% of Bitcoin users when it comes to knowledge about how Bitcoin works. The more knowledge, the more addresses people tend to use, for privacy reasons, the quantum computer topic etc.

Many "small investors" with limited knowledge have a hardware wallet and I would guess they tend to store everything on the same address. So my guess is that the lower 50% of "real" (on-chain) Bitcoin owners could have indeed only one address where they store everything. Many came to BTC from Ethereum and other altcoins where it's even more common to use a single address.

The other 200-300 million (I don't know how exact the crypto.com numbers are, but I would not be surprised that 80-90% of "Bitcoin owners" are only "IOU owners") who "own" only IOUs however also do incide in the market. Either as potential demand or supply, they thicken the order books and thus create liquidity. That's actually what this thread is about I think, although you're of course probably right about the OP's intentions.

Yes, fractional reserve is a possibility but I don't believe it to be widespread. It's probably too dangerous for the big players.

Owning some satoshi in some exchange does not mean that this person accepts BTC at the same rate than (for example) USD. How many there are such persons for whom BTC carries the money functions (medium of exchange, store of value, measure of value and so on) as intensively as fiat money ?

I agree somewhat, but would you ask the same question about gold? I think more people are using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange than those using gold, and the value of all gold in the world is vastly higher than BTC's current market cap (7-8 times higher actually).

[philipma1957]

And yeah if there are only. 56 million truly funded addresses we both know people that have their own addresses have two or three or more.

One shouldn't forget that most members of this forum are in the upper 10% of Bitcoin users when it comes to knowledge about how Bitcoin works. The more knowledge, the more addresses people tend to use, for privacy reasons, the quantum computer topic etc.

Many "small investors" with limited knowledge have a hardware wallet and I would guess they tend to store everything on the same address. So my guess is that the lower 50% of "real" (on-chain) Bitcoin owners could have indeed only one address where they store everything. Many came to BTC from Ethereum and other altcoins where it's even more common to use a single address.

The other 200-300 million (I don't know how exact the crypto.com numbers are, but I would not be surprised that 80-90% of "Bitcoin owners" are only "IOU owners") who "own" only IOUs however also do incide in the market. Either as potential demand or supply, they thicken the order books and thus create liquidity. That's actually what this thread is about I think, although you're of course probably right about the OP's intentions.

Yes, fractional reserve is a possibility but I don't believe it to be widespread. It's probably too dangerous for the big players.

Owning some satoshi in some exchange does not mean that this person accepts BTC at the same rate than (for example) USD. How many there are such persons for whom BTC carries the money functions (medium of exchange, store of value, measure of value and so on) as intensively as fiat money ?

I agree somewhat, but would you ask the same question about gold? I think more people are using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange than those using gold, and the value of all gold in the world is vastly higher than BTC's current market cap (7-8 times higher actually).

I do not like mocking thread titles but If BTC drops to 10,000 it is not making 1,000,000 ever.

The real question is has Wall Street tamed it a bit and is not looking for a four year cycle.

I know many believe in a four year cycle but

in 2013-2014. did we stay in a 1000-1300 dollar slot for 9 months -no
in 2017-2018 did we stay in a 17000-19500 slot for 9 months-no
in 2021-2022 did we stay in a 55000-69000 slot for 9 months-no

in 2024-2025 are we in a 106000-124000 slot for 9 months-almost but not quite as we did dip in feb-Mar-april

but it is a different pattern then any of the older bulls.

So since Wall Street managed a long streak since 2008 to 2025

can crypto give us the longest up streak say dec 2024- jan 2027

breaking the cycle.

I am certain it is far more likely than btc dropping to 9999 and going over 1,000,000

[JaanusRaim]

 

Owning some satoshi in some exchange does not mean that this person accepts BTC at the same rate than (for example) USD. How many there are such persons for whom BTC carries the money functions (medium of exchange, store of value, measure of value and so on) as intensively as fiat money ?

I agree somewhat, but would you ask the same question about gold? I think more people are using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange than those using gold, and the value of all gold in the world is vastly higher than BTC's current market cap (7-8 times higher actually).
[/quote]


Yes, this function (money function) - gold as the medium of exchange -  is remarkable weak nowadays. It is so weak that it is indeed possible that BTC is stronger is this segment. But both are very low (may-be because BTC has so high transaction cost for everyday small payments) relative to fiat. I admit that BTC (and other cryptocurrencies) have strong competitive advantage in large payments between different countries. This is an excellent opportunity for crypto.

 

[bhadz]

Second reason: if the economic crises will emerge, then Bitcoin falls much more than major stock indexes (just as during corona crises March 2020).

Just like when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the market has dropped a lot, and it's very low. But it's been tested again when the market has gone through another series of global issu,es and that's with the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that Bitcoin has survived that. While we cannot be confident to say that it's too high to fall that much, its volatility says that every possible higher and lower price has always been there. With the percentage of how low the prices were from the ATHs like, an 80% - 90% drop. Yeah, numbers could say same but I don't think it will be that low.

[Kagaru]

Second reason: if the economic crises will emerge, then Bitcoin falls much more than major stock indexes (just as during corona crises March 2020).

Just like when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the market has dropped a lot, and it's very low. But it's been tested again when the market has gone through another series of global issu,es and that's with the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that Bitcoin has survived that. While we cannot be confident to say that it's too high to fall that much, its volatility says that every possible higher and lower price has always been there. With the percentage of how low the prices were from the ATHs like, an 80% - 90% drop. Yeah, numbers could say same but I don't think it will be that low.

I agree that you are right in pointing out that Bitcoin has already proved to be resilient when faced with significant global shocks, but you should also remember that its reaction is not always linked to the same factors, as traditional markets. It plummeted even more than stocks in March 2020, and has since rebounded much quicker, and in the war in Russia Ukraine actually performed better than most people anticipated. That volatility also works both ways because Bitcoin lacks earnings or balance sheets to value the way equities do. It is rather a liquidity, sentiment and adoption trade. So we may not have another 90 percent down like the initial days, but we will always have sharp downturns in the cycle, and likely always will.

[bhadz]

Second reason: if the economic crises will emerge, then Bitcoin falls much more than major stock indexes (just as during corona crises March 2020).

Just like when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the market has dropped a lot, and it's very low. But it's been tested again when the market has gone through another series of global issu,es and that's with the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that Bitcoin has survived that. While we cannot be confident to say that it's too high to fall that much, its volatility says that every possible higher and lower price has always been there. With the percentage of how low the prices were from the ATHs like, an 80% - 90% drop. Yeah, numbers could say same but I don't think it will be that low.

I agree that you are right in pointing out that Bitcoin has already proved to be resilient when faced with significant global shocks, but you should also remember that its reaction is not always linked to the same factors, as traditional markets. It plummeted even more than stocks in March 2020, and has since rebounded much quicker, and in the war in Russia Ukraine actually performed better than most people anticipated. That volatility also works both ways because Bitcoin lacks earnings or balance sheets to value the way equities do. It is rather a liquidity, sentiment and adoption trade. So we may not have another 90 percent down like the initial days, but we will always have sharp downturns in the cycle, and likely always will.

You're right, there could be some solid downturns in the cycle. But let's just hope that it won't be as solid as 90% like what he has said. So if something big in the global scene that will turn the markets down, we don't know yet what it could be. It won't be another pandemic, and hopefully not another war. And when that happens, everyone should be prepared for that. If you're a long term guy, no problem and only need to firmly hold until we see the market recovers again. However, there could also be some changes that we won't have to see such painful bears anymore.

[M47AK16]

I do not like mocking thread titles but If BTC drops to 10,000 it is not making 1,000,000 ever.

The real question is has Wall Street tamed it a bit and is not looking for a four year cycle.

I know many believe in a four year cycle but

in 2013-2014. did we stay in a 1000-1300 dollar slot for 9 months -no
in 2017-2018 did we stay in a 17000-19500 slot for 9 months-no
in 2021-2022 did we stay in a 55000-69000 slot for 9 months-no

in 2024-2025 are we in a 106000-124000 slot for 9 months-almost but not quite as we did dip in feb-Mar-april

but it is a different pattern then any of the older bulls.

So since Wall Street managed a long streak since 2008 to 2025

can crypto give us the longest up streak say dec 2024- jan 2027

breaking the cycle.

I am certain it is far more likely than btc dropping to 9999 and going over 1,000,000

Just because there are differences, doesnt mean it can't happen. For example in 2017 we did not have 2 huge icnreases, but in 2021 we did, one in april and one in october. Does that mean it was different? Yes. Does that mean bull didn't happen? No. It is obvious that we are looking at different versions, but doesn't mean the cycle is broken yet.

If we can grow higher in this coming few months, and reach a big level, then that means we have done well enough. I am sure not a lot of people will agree on this, and as I can see you do not neither, but I have the utmost belief that we are going to get there. Plus there is no reason why wall street wouldn't want bitcoin to go up and d o a lot better because that would help them as well.

[Odusko]

Bitcoin heading to 1 million dollars price, yes possible, but Bitcoin to fall back to ten thousand dollars price is somewhat unpredictable to achieve at this point in time, alot have to be done to bring Bitcoin back to that range of $10k the time for such possibilities have gone and it will take a lot of things to bring Bitcoin to it kneels near that price, Best thing to do is to buy the amount you can afford to for now.

[Iranus]

Bitcoin heading to 1 million dollars price, yes possible, but Bitcoin to fall back to ten thousand dollars price is somewhat unpredictable to achieve at this point in time, alot have to be done to bring Bitcoin back to that range of $10k the time for such possibilities have gone and it will take a lot of things to bring Bitcoin to it kneels near that price, Best thing to do is to buy the amount you can afford to for now.

As we often say, anything is possible, and if we believe it is possible to reach 1 million, that is x10 from now. We should not deny that it could also fall to $10k, which would be a loss of about 90% of its value. Anything can happen and this has happened many times in previous bear seasons, why can't it happen again?

I wouldn't rule out any scenario because the nature of bitcoin is unpredictable. If history repeats itself, a brutal bear market is coming, a bitcoin price drop of more than 80-90% is normal, nothing too surprising.

[Free Market Capitalist]

I was already missing trolls like proudhon on the forum. In the end, they manage to generate traffic by talking nonsense, and I think that's something this forum is missing: people who have a pessimistic view of Bitcoin. As for what you say, and as many of you have commented, obviously, the probability of it returning to $10K with BlackRock Fidelity, MSTR, and a bunch of other companies, plus the US government legislating in its favor, is minimal. Meanwhile, the possibility of it reaching a million is more of a future certainty.

[luckyspirit]

And of course: We may have a population of 8.x billion. But that includes children, the elderly, and people in rural areas who will probably never need Bitcoin. A 100% penetration would be thus in my opinion more close to 2-3 billion: one main user per family.

Maybe even less like that. Anyway, what does penetration even mean here? Owning any amount at all? Owning a significant amount? Using it regardless of how much you own?

at this point in time there are around 56 to 65 million btc addresses with money in them.

This is an irrelevant metric. Most people don't have an address at all, that does not mean that they don't have Bitcoin. I know that it is wrong, but people will use things how they want to use them.

I was already missing trolls like proudhon on the forum. In the end, they manage to generate traffic by talking nonsense, and I think that's something this forum is missing: people who have a pessimistic view of Bitcoin.

Just go to the buttcoin subreddit if you want those people, but sadly you will get banned very soon regardless of how good your arguments are. 

[NewRanger]

As we often say, anything is possible, and if we believe it is possible to reach 1 million, that is x10 from now. We should not deny that it could also fall to $10k, which would be a loss of about 90% of its value. Anything can happen and this has happened many times in previous bear seasons, why can't it happen again?

I wouldn't rule out any scenario because the nature of bitcoin is unpredictable. If history repeats itself, a brutal bear market is coming, a bitcoin price drop of more than 80-90% is normal, nothing too surprising.

It's certainly possible, but looking ahead, major pump-ups will likely become rarer than they once were, perhaps due to the presence of large institutions. Beyond this, I, and others also would like to see how BTC performs during major events, such as the upcoming World Cup. Whether it will survive or experience further corrections, as you mentioned, is unpredictable.