Chart Comparison: March 2013 - July 2013 VS. December 2013 - April 2014

[delaro]

Hello Everyone,

Sometimes the most obvious things are the things that are overlooked the most.
Take a look at this chart.



http://i61.tinypic.com/2nsulo3.png



Yeh, so you've seen this chart before. Big deal. Actually, it is a really big deal. Take this chart and compare it with this February 2013 - August 2013 chart.


http://i62.tinypic.com/1zdlkj4.png

Notice any similarities? If this pattern plays out, which I'm betting money on that it will, we should be seeing a reversal starting anytime in the next month. From the looks of the chart, April 15th - 20th is the most probable time for this to begin.

Note that when this happens, it is likely it won't be a sudden reversal but actually a steady uptrend for another 3 months before taking off. As you can see the second chart, this is about what happened in August and September. Of course, new positive news being released could speed this process up, but without this extreme catalyst, a slow and steady 3 month uptrend to 775 is the most likely scenario in my opinion.

The math that I used to calculate this is based on the fact that the 2013 chart shows a run up from its low of $63 in July to about $130 in September. This $130 is about 2/3 of the price $190 that our trend line was at in the pattern that began around the beginning of April 2013. . Therefore, if you expect trends to stay the same, we should be returning to about 2/3's of our previous trend line high of $1163 in December. This is  about $775.

I also believe that these two charts can be used to set a future price target after the $775 mark that we should see in June-July 2014. By dividing bitcoin's current high of $1163 (Bitstamp) by the $125 price in September-October 2013 that formed as a result of slow increase after the early 2013 crash, we can calculate about a 9.3x run up. Therefore, if past results are any indicator of the future, we should expect a run up from $775 to about $7,200. However, I would caution people not to expect this $7200 figure because I believe we should start to slowly see the law of large numbers taking effect on future gains. Therefore, a more reasonable estimate, based entirely on my gut feeling, might be $5,000-$6000.

After this, the panic stage that we have been in for the last several months is likely to repeat itself and drop the price back down to sub $3,000. I found this number by dividing the 2014 low of about $400 by the high of $1163. This gave me about 0.344 which I multiplied by the future high of $7,000.

I tried to show my math as much as possible in order to try and prove my logic.

Let me know if you agree or disagree with my findings.

[1715067595]

1715067595

[1715067595]

1715067595

[eboard10]

Well, the April spike saw a circa 25x increase in bitcoin's price while the last spike only had an 18x rise so the next wave up should increase by a smaller degree. I would guess no more than 10x if we have now bottomed so we'd be looking at a max of $4000.

[dyland]

I see so much more relative volume in the second chart.

The low volume worries me most, but I hope that you're right.

[suchnoob]

Well, the April spike saw a circa 25x increase in bitcoin's price while the last spike only had an 18x rise so the next wave up should increase by a smaller degree. I would guess no more than 10x if we have now bottomed so we'd be looking at a max of $4000.

I'd say max 2500-3000. So it probably will be 4000.

[Cyberlight]

Well, the April spike saw a circa 25x increase in bitcoin's price while the last spike only had an 18x rise so the next wave up should increase by a smaller degree. I would guess no more than 10x if we have now bottomed so we'd be looking at a max of $4000.

We had 760 on 1 jan 2013, so a 10 x increase would bring us to 7600 dollars

[dyland]

Well, the April spike saw a circa 25x increase in bitcoin's price while the last spike only had an 18x rise so the next wave up should increase by a smaller degree. I would guess no more than 10x if we have now bottomed so we'd be looking at a max of $4000.

I'd say max 2500-3000.

Yes, I'm more conservative and would even say 1000-1500.

Truth is Bitcoin can surprise you either way. It's likely to be a wild ride for the next five years, and I'm not sure where the price will stabilize.

I think the main question is value. In terms of the remittance market, where it might make its first significant mark, it should stabilize at 2000 or so within two years just based on that.

In the near term >=6 months, I see a VC run in concert with some good apps and simple tech solutions taking us to that 1500-2000 mark.

But I think it's going to take longer for this to gain mass adoption.

What we have is a paradigm shift. Before now, we didn't have a way to give strangers money without the (tacit or not) need of a human actor / human-driven entity at some point needing to be involved. Math is doing that now, and we can put more faith in it, and at an order of magnitude more cheaply so.

With respect to paradigmatic shift, the problem we have is that the financial industry and the world at-large are trying to understand BTC through a lens that doesn't really register its true potential or or if it does, distorts its image. I really would invoke Kuhn (1962-The Structure of Scientific Revolutions) in this context: "it is not possible to understand one paradigm through the conceptual framework and terminology of another rival paradigm". Clearly, that's what's happening here.

Intervening in the normal course of the paradigm shift are the oil smudges of corruption, greed, and power brokering/jostling on our collective prosaic lens, if you will: Gox, rampant and manipulative speculation, etc. Therefore, everybody is just a little scared of the technology and that fear leads most of them to not want to try and understand it. The fear results in more time to adoption.

Anyway, in the background, all the keyed in people are investing time, effort, and money into all sorts of BTC-related stuff because they (rightly IMO) believe in the underlying technology, and they know that the fearful will become fanciful once it works as easily and smoothly as their iPhone. These are the same types of people now as those who pulled up their sleeves and wiped their brows in the 90s with internet, yes--even though this is a tired comparison by now.

So many people are focussed on the value of BTC, and ironically, they don't yet see it.

[suchnoob]

Well, the April spike saw a circa 25x increase in bitcoin's price while the last spike only had an 18x rise so the next wave up should increase by a smaller degree. I would guess no more than 10x if we have now bottomed so we'd be looking at a max of $4000.

We had 760 on 1 jan 2013, so a 10 x increase would bring us to 7600 dollars

You won't see 10x again. The numbers are getting too big for that.

[Cyberlight]

You won't see 10x again. The numbers are getting too big for that.

Based on what ? Science ?

[Cyberlight]

You won't see 10x again. The numbers are getting too big for that.

Based on what ? Science ?

Based on the law of large numbers. However, as you saw in my post, I think we will see it one more time. in a several month span. Here's a link about this law.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawoflargenumbers.asp

So what ? this is about stocks, you can't buy 1 millionth of a stock share.

[Walsoraj]

The pattern will not repeat unless major exchanges freeze fiat withdrawals.

[Torque]

You won't see 10x again. The numbers are getting too big for that.

Based on what ? Science ?

Based on the law of large numbers. However, as you saw in my post, I think we will see it one more time. in a several month span. Here's a link about this law.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawoflargenumbers.asp

Oh rly?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=brk-a+Interactive
Click on 'Max'

[zimmah]

You won't see 10x again. The numbers are getting too big for that.

Based on what ? Science ?

Based on the law of large numbers. However, as you saw in my post, I think we will see it one more time. in a several month span. Here's a link about this law.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawoflargenumbers.asp

Oh rly?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=brk-a+Interactive
Click on 'Max'

nice chart, you'd have to correct for inflation though but still.

Less than 100 in a million people (0.01%) of the world population uses bitcoin. If even 1 in 1000 people in the world would use bitcoin we'd still see a 10x increase in price.

[kireinaha]

Breakout confirmed!

[Torque]

You won't see 10x again. The numbers are getting too big for that.

Based on what ? Science ?

Based on the law of large numbers. However, as you saw in my post, I think we will see it one more time. in a several month span. Here's a link about this law.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawoflargenumbers.asp

Oh rly?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=brk-a+Interactive
Click on 'Max'

nice chart, you'd have to correct for inflation though but still.

Less than 100 in a million people (0.01%) of the world population uses bitcoin. If even 1 in 1000 people in the world would use bitcoin we'd still see a 10x increase in price.

Yes, you get the idea.  There is another thread here somewhere that predicts bitcoin can easily support a 4-5x increase in price for every 3.2x increase in the user base.  If this trend has validity and we are at say ~3M users/consumers now, we should see 16-20x price by the time we are at ~30M users.  Could this happen within a year?  You bet your ass it can, easily.  Exponential growth can happen VERY fast.

[bitcoinsrus]

You won't see 10x again. The numbers are getting too big for that.

Based on what ? Science ?

Based on the law of large numbers. However, as you saw in my post, I think we will see it one more time. in a several month span. Here's a link about this law.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawoflargenumbers.asp

Oh rly?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=brk-a+Interactive
Click on 'Max'

nice chart, you'd have to correct for inflation though but still.

Less than 100 in a million people (0.01%) of the world population uses bitcoin. If even 1 in 1000 people in the world would use bitcoin we'd still see a 10x increase in price.

Yes, you get the idea.  There is another thread here somewhere that predicts bitcoin can easily support a 4-5x increase in price for every 3.2x increase in the user base.  If this trend has validity and we are at say ~3M users/consumers now, we should see 16-20x price at around 30M users.  Can this happen in a year?  You bet your ass it can, easily.  Exponential growth can happen VERY fast.

I thought there were 2 million wallets (assuming 500k-2 million users).  But I guess we are in the same ballpark @low millions.  I agree with your other points as well. 

[Teppino]

Maybe i'm drawing wrong lines, but my upper trendline always come at about 471 which isn't broken, yet

[Dalmar]

The down trend has been broken. Here is a visual that complements my first post.
http://i61.tinypic.com/29fyxcw.png

Charting on linear scale is for noobs who get caught up in fake outs.. on logarithmic scale it's not broken at all.

[kireinaha]

Charting on linear scale is for noobs who get caught up in fake outs.. on logarithmic scale it's not broken at all.

[MatTheCat]

Charting on linear scale is for noobs who get caught up in fake outs.. on logarithmic scale it's not broken at all.

That is what I was thinking.

Might have explained the little flurry of buying activity earlier. Crossover of the 1 day MACD (but only just) and the 'break-out'.

And actually, the 'break out' occurred according the linear scale on April 16th. We have slumped around $100 since that particular 'break out'.

Well, if that was the break out, I certainly amn't looking forward to the correction!