An analysis of analysing. Is speculation on crypto markets worthwhile?

[Dogedegen]

Speculation in bitcoin is basically gambling on what you think will happen without really controlling anything, people spend hours on charts and indicators trying to predict the next move but the truth is the market doesnt care about lines on a screen. speculation can give a short win but over time most traders get drained because the game is stacked against them, fees, emotions, leverage and bigger players who move the market at will.

You get it! The reason that some people get things correctly sometimes is simply because pretty much every single possible movement was predicted by someone. This does not mean that their indicators worked, it only means that they were lucky. For indicators to really work they have to work consistently, and in that case people would be getting extremely rich from them all the time. This practically never happens with perhaps a few outliers in the entire history of market analysis.

Holding is different because you are not trying to outsmart every candle, you are simply betting on the long term value of bitcoin as a whole. every time someone posts hype or panic, the crowd reacts and that alone pushes the price one way or another, and the cycle repeats. the big holders know this and they use speculation and noise to shake out smaller players. So the real question is not if speculation works, because sometimes it does, the real question is if it’s worth all the stress compared to just holding through cycles and letting bitcoin do what it has always done. when you zoom out, speculation looks like noise, holding looks like the signal.

Reading Bitcoin books would be much better than spending every day watching charts.

I don’t think technical analysis is useless I just think too many people do it incorrectly. Technical analysis and indicators such as moving averages work well when you zoom out.

Try using a moving average or even simple horizontal support/resistance lines and see if you have more success on the lower or higher timeframes? You will see that the higher time frames are more accurate and there is more profit to be made.

These days too many people day trade and it’s what causes them to lose money while trading stocks or crypto. Or pretty much any other commodity asset.

Did you read my thread fully? It does not matter what analysis you use or what indicators you use, the same arguments apply. Even if you are quite skilled in using them all it does is slightly improve your chances. All the negative consequences still remain.

[Webetcoins]

I don’t think technical analysis is useless I just think too many people do it incorrectly. Technical analysis and indicators such as moving averages work well when you zoom out.

Try using a moving average or even simple horizontal support/resistance lines and see if you have more success on the lower or higher timeframes? You will see that the higher time frames are more accurate and there is more profit to be made.

These days too many people day trade and it’s what causes them to lose money while trading stocks or crypto. Or pretty much any other commodity asset.

Those who might say technical analysis does not work will be the ones doing it wrong. Technical analysis is the base of trading not only with cryptos but with stocks and forex as well. Technical analysis will teach us how to understand the market momentum and when and where to exit or enter the markets. Basic support and resistance levels are quite common but they still work for me.

Yes, we can't expect the same for lower timeframes as there will be a lot of manipulation and wick formations but for higher timeframes, the levels have never stopped amusing me.

Day trading is getting more riskier as a number of people are thinking of it as a get rich quick scheme. This will only swallow there portfolios and end up being left with nothing. Long term or mid term traders are the ones who are making profits after properly analysing the markets.

[Dogedegen]

Those who might say technical analysis does not work will be the ones doing it wrong. Technical analysis is the base of trading not only with cryptos but with stocks and forex as well. Technical analysis will teach us how to understand the market momentum and when and where to exit or enter the markets. Basic support and resistance levels are quite common but they still work for me.

It can't work because it is flawed in the idea. How could it work? For it to work it means that it if you use it correctly it must always anticipate the right result. If someone can anticipate the market movements consistently they would be the richest person in the whole world. Either technical analysis does not work for markets or nobody in the world knows how to do it correctly. Which is it?

Yes, we can't expect the same for lower timeframes as there will be a lot of manipulation and wick formations but for higher timeframes, the levels have never stopped amusing me.

You want to say that analysis on longer timeframes is more accurate than lower timeframes? I agree, but I have also seen charts break TA on those too at least temporarily. It can't be the case that every time the chart does not correspond to the analysis that the analysis was wrong. It must also mean that the methodology that is the process of analysis is flawed too.

[JayJuanGee]

Those who might say technical analysis does not work will be the ones doing it wrong. Technical analysis is the base of trading not only with cryptos but with stocks and forex as well. Technical analysis will teach us how to understand the market momentum and when and where to exit or enter the markets. Basic support and resistance levels are quite common but they still work for me.

It can't work because it is flawed in the idea. How could it work? For it to work it means that it if you use it correctly it must always anticipate the right result. If someone can anticipate the market movements consistently they would be the richest person in the whole world. Either technical analysis does not work for markets or nobody in the world knows how to do it correctly. Which is it?

Yes, we can't expect the same for lower timeframes as there will be a lot of manipulation and wick formations but for higher timeframes, the levels have never stopped amusing me.

You want to say that analysis on longer timeframes is more accurate than lower timeframes? I agree, but I have also seen charts break TA on those too at least temporarily. It can't be the case that every time the chart does not correspond to the analysis that the analysis was wrong. It must also mean that the methodology that is the process of analysis is flawed too.

If traders can admit that their analysis only provides them answers about which outcomes are more probable, then surely overtime more of them should profit rather than not, yet it is likely true that mistakes are many times made so that a decent number of traders are either getting their analysis wrong or they are applying their own trading wrong.

There is a bit of a problem to proclaim that attempting to trade and/or analyze shitcoins is the same as doing so in bitcoin, even though shitcoins are correlated to bitcoin, so it is a bit problematic to be proclaiming that they are all the same, and to suggest that there is such a thing as "crypto" without differentiating bitcoin from shitcoins.

Many of us also have assessed bitcoin as likely to be trending up in the long term, yet it remains problematic to trade it in the short term without accounting for that it is most likely to be ongoingly trending up.  So, perhaps that the best that a bitcoin trader is to do is to attempt to hedge himself against some of the upside while mostly staying in bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade... Maybe 90%-ish investment and then perhaps fucking around with 10% or less in trading, and not necessarily to get a profit, but just to hedge the downside within reasonable parameters.

It seems difficult for any trader to beat the performance of investing into bitcoin, especially over a couple of cycles or more, and sure there could be some exceptions where a trader has done better than the long term bitcoin investor, but not too likely.

Let me give an example, and say that in late 2013 and early 2014, a person may have had assessed bitcoin as a good investment, inspite of not knowing if the BTC price was at the top of the price range or not, so this person started investing into bitcoin at $200 per week, and so he invested for 11 years at that rate and ended up investing $118k and accumulating about 91.5 BTC.  I have a hard time considering that a trader with the same budget could have had beaten the guy's performance by merely accumulating $200 per week of bitcoin for 11 years.

Sure there could have been at some point that even the accumulator might have had identified that bitcoin moves in approximately 4 year price waves, so then there might have had been some consideration of selling some in 2017 when the BTC price was going crazy and also in 2021 when the BTC price was going up a lot.  Whether the selling of BTC on the way up was with an intention to buy back cheaper or maybe just with an intention to hedge, just in case the BTC price dropped...

Even an investment of $200 per week would have resulted in most of the BTC stash already accumulated by January 1, 2017, with $31.5k invested and about 81k bitcoin accumulated.  So perhaps there could have had been some desire to prepare to sell some of the bitcoin in 2017 if there was any ability to contemplate that the BTC price would go from less than $1k per coin and up to $19,666 in 2017... so there could have had been opportunties to sell and buy back, but also difficulties in assessing since so many folks were not really sure how far the 2017 price was going to go, even many of the analyzers had failed in that year, but those who mostly hung onto their coins did O.k. so long as they could get through the UP of 2017 and the down movements in 2018 and the other arguably ambiguous up and down price moves that took place in 2019 and 2020.

My point is that even if short term trading may be too risky, maintaining a view that the BTC price was mostly trajectored upwards was not a bad way of making sure to continue to accumulate bitcoin and/or to hold on to any bitcoin accumulated with thoughts of long term time horizons in mind.

[davis196]

My conclusion is that DCA is impossibly superior to speculation and trading. Sure, your chances of making big money are diminished but for that tradeoff you forego all the costs that come with speculation and trading. With DCA you set it up and you can go and live your life peacefully. Remember, the most valuable currency that you have is time.

Some people have high risk tolerance, while others have low risk tolerance. Risk lovers would never prefer a peaceful life.
I don't believe that DCA is some sort of long term financial panacea. DCA comes with the implication that the BTC price will keep growing forever(which might be true, at least in the next 5 years or more). Nobody knows how Bitcoin will perform after 10 years.
Yes, there are speculators on the crypto markets and most of them lose money. We also know that most gamblers lose money, but the gambling industry is thriving and the amount of new gamblers is growing. The same applies to the financial markets. Most newbie traders believe that they will succeed at timing the market and making a ton of money in no time. The amount of greedy and delusional people around the world can never be underestimated.
Dollar cost averaging is the safe and boring option, but day trading is anything else but boring.

[Iron Fist]

My conclusion is that DCA is impossibly superior to speculation and trading. Sure, your chances of making big money are diminished but for that tradeoff you forego all the costs that come with speculation and trading. With DCA you set it up and you can go and live your life peacefully. Remember, the most valuable currency that you have is time.

Some people have high risk tolerance, while others have low risk tolerance. Risk lovers would never prefer a peaceful life.
I don't believe that DCA is some sort of long term financial panacea. DCA comes with the implication that the BTC price will keep growing forever(which might be true, at least in the next 5 years or more). Nobody knows how Bitcoin will perform after 10 years.
Yes, there are speculators on the crypto markets and most of them lose money. We also know that most gamblers lose money, but the gambling industry is thriving and the amount of new gamblers is growing. The same applies to the financial markets. Most newbie traders believe that they will succeed at timing the market and making a ton of money in no time. The amount of greedy and delusional people around the world can never be underestimated.
Dollar cost averaging is the safe and boring option, but day trading is anything else but boring.

Yeah. You got it.  So, the thing is, most folks lose money because they are after that thrill, not really the profit. It's why gambling is such a big deal, even if the odds are always against you and you're probably gonna lose. I think it's the same with day trading.  You are not just trading to earn, you are doing it for that buzz. When you win a bit, you get that happy feeling, making you think you're clever. It's addictive! But when you lose, you just wanna make up for it, so you take bigger chances.  It's a psychological trap, really.

[Gozie51]

If they can keep low amount of money for trading and mantain DCA. I'm sure they will be successful easy.

With a working strategy. If you are careful with low amount in risk but you got no winning strategy, it will get to a point where you will be stocked in losses because you will definitely enter a wrong trade that will drain your capital and get you confused. But with a good strategy, you will understand the waters and the volatility areas. Trading isn't just about using low amount because you are afraid to lose because loses will surely come and then DCA will be difficult when you are not making consistent profit.

[AVE5]

My conclusion is that DCA is impossibly superior to speculation and trading. Sure, your chances of making big money are diminished but for that tradeoff you forego all the costs that come with speculation and trading. With DCA you set it up and you can go and live your life peacefully. Remember, the most valuable currency that you have is time.

Some people have high risk tolerance, while others have low risk tolerance. Risk lovers would never prefer a peaceful life.
I don't believe that DCA is some sort of long term financial panacea. DCA comes with the implication that the BTC price will keep growing forever(which might be true, at least in the next 5 years or more). Nobody knows how Bitcoin will perform after 10 years.
Yes, there are speculators on the crypto markets and most of them lose money. We also know that most gamblers lose money, but the gambling industry is thriving and the amount of new gamblers is growing. The same applies to the financial markets. Most newbie traders believe that they will succeed at timing the market and making a ton of money in no time. The amount of greedy and delusional people around the world can never be underestimated.
Dollar cost averaging is the safe and boring option, but day trading is anything else but boring.

With the point of this discussion, all the features in the talk are relevant and have their own attributes to how it influences the markets and also the peripherals to how traders and investors can benefit out of it. Where the challenges lies is individuals risks management and greeds because if you're not getting it right, the outputs will always result to lost. We also can't associate trading to gambling even though price are unpredictable. Perhaps if you're well studied to understand the areas that influence the market price in the real world and also adheres to your risks managements, you'll be in the most chances to make profits after on than your looses because trading itself has strategies that can bring success while risks can't be buried beneath.
I'd say speculations might not be relevant to drive investors accumulating plans, instead, speculations would rather optimize your foresight and awakens your anticipations or drives your emotions towards what's possibly to occur in the future.

[Dogedegen]

If traders can admit that their analysis only provides them answers about which outcomes are more probable, then surely overtime more of them should profit rather than not, yet it is likely true that mistakes are many times made so that a decent number of traders are either getting their analysis wrong or they are applying their own trading wrong.

From my observations very few talk about it like this which I would consider very nuanced and correct. Most just say the kind of stuff that I responded to, either the analysis gives you the right answer or you did it wrong. Others which are perhaps fewer in numbers like me say that analysis does not work but I mean in the same sense as you. It does not tell you what is going to happen at all, it gives you probabilities if you did it correctly and one must always remember that things can go wrong because of external events.

There is a bit of a problem to proclaim that attempting to trade and/or analyze shitcoins is the same as doing so in bitcoin, even though shitcoins are correlated to bitcoin, so it is a bit problematic to be proclaiming that they are all the same, and to suggest that there is such a thing as "crypto" without differentiating bitcoin from shitcoins.

You could see it a bit differently. If the analysis does not work for Bitcoin it for sure won't work on shitcoins, so from that I say wider crypto market. Shitcoins are extremely manipulated even the top ones but it gets worse and worse as you go down the ranking list.

Many of us also have assessed bitcoin as likely to be trending up in the long term, yet it remains problematic to trade it in the short term without accounting for that it is most likely to be ongoingly trending up.  So, perhaps that the best that a bitcoin trader is to do is to attempt to hedge himself against some of the upside while mostly staying in bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade... Maybe 90%-ish investment and then perhaps fucking around with 10% or less in trading, and not necessarily to get a profit, but just to hedge the downside within reasonable parameters.

Yes and I am trying to argue against this day trading. I attempted it a few times in the past and whenever I bought the price went down and whenever I sold the price went up. Inversely correlated as if by magic, I was worse than Jim Cramer. 

It seems difficult for any trader to beat the performance of investing into bitcoin, especially over a couple of cycles or more, and sure there could be some exceptions where a trader has done better than the long term bitcoin investor, but not too likely.

Let me give an example, and say that in late 2013 and early 2014, a person may have had assessed bitcoin as a good investment, inspite of not knowing if the BTC price was at the top of the price range or not, so this person started investing into bitcoin at $200 per week, and so he invested for 11 years at that rate and ended up investing $118k and accumulating about 91.5 BTC.  I have a hard time considering that a trader with the same budget could have had beaten the guy's performance by merely accumulating $200 per week of bitcoin for 11 years.

Probably less than 0.01% of traders managed that and there was a huge luck factor involved. Exactly my point! Day trading takes so much time and since you are very unlikely to beat the DCA why waste your life away at this futile quest?

My point is that even if short term trading may be too risky, maintaining a view that the BTC price was mostly trajectored upwards was not a bad way of making sure to continue to accumulate bitcoin and/or to hold on to any bitcoin accumulated with thoughts of long term time horizons in mind.

Long term trend speculation is fine with me, that does not require so much time and is less likely to cause errors. I mean everyone who speculated that gold and Bitcoin would continue a long term upward trajectory at any point of time was correct.

[justdimin]

So, the thing is, most folks lose money because they are after that thrill, not really the profit. It's why gambling is such a big deal, even if the odds are always against you and you're probably gonna lose. I think it's the same with day trading.  You are not just trading to earn, you are doing it for that buzz. When you win a bit, you get that happy feeling, making you think you're clever. It's addictive! But when you lose, you just wanna make up for it, so you take bigger chances.  It's a psychological trap, really.

I disagree, it's not the same with day trading. I can understand getting some shitcoin low cap token could be same as gambling, but day trading isn't. Not knowing anything about day trading is the problem, it's the ignorance and confidence somehow combining.

For some weird reason, people who have no idea about charts, about indicators, about patterns, think they can make so much from it because they saw some influencer on instagram and they think they can do the same. What happens as a result? They end up losing, and that's the problem. We have to realize this isn't okay, because if you have no idea about how to do this, then it's not gambling, it's ignorance, wilful ignorance. Learn how to do it properly, and it would be a good thing, not a gambling.

[JayJuanGee]

My conclusion is that DCA is impossibly superior to speculation and trading. Sure, your chances of making big money are diminished but for that tradeoff you forego all the costs that come with speculation and trading. With DCA you set it up and you can go and live your life peacefully. Remember, the most valuable currency that you have is time.

Some people have high risk tolerance, while others have low risk tolerance. Risk lovers would never prefer a peaceful life.
I don't believe that DCA is some sort of long term financial panacea. DCA comes with the implication that the BTC price will keep growing forever(which might be true, at least in the next 5 years or more). Nobody knows how Bitcoin will perform after 10 years.

You are exaggerating a bit, davis196.

There is a bit of a presumption within DCA that the general BTC price trajectory is up, yet there is not a need for BTC prices to go up forever in order for DCA to be a prudent and/or practical approach to getting and/or maintaining a BTC position.

DCA allows an adjustment of how much position to take based on a persons cashflow situation and other personal particulars that surely involve incrementalism, yet can still be designed as whimpy or aggressive or some personally tailored point in the middle.

So for example if a person is DCA investing on a fairly regular basis over 4 years, then the average cost per BTC is likely to be in the ballpark of the 200-WMA, yet so far in bitcoin's history, the BTC spot price has been spending an overwhelming majority of the time in the ballpark, of 25% or more greater than the 200-WMA, so in that sense, so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has been moving  up yet the spot price has continued to mostly stay at least 25% above the 200-WMA.

Sure, a person can invest into bitcoin longer than 4 years and keep buying and/or holding for longer than 4 years, so there is also a bit of a presumption that an investor would be (or should be) coming into bitcoin with a 4-10 year time horizon or longer in order to consider bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade, so in that sense bitcoin investors would not necessarily become overly focused on price, even though everyone gets into investing in order to improve their life position by investing as compared with if he had not invested or if he had chosen to invest into something other than what he had chosen to invest into.

Yes, there are speculators on the crypto markets and most of them lose money. We also know that most gamblers lose money, but the gambling industry is thriving and the amount of new gamblers is growing. The same applies to the financial markets. Most newbie traders believe that they will succeed at timing the market and making a ton of money in no time. The amount of greedy and delusional people around the world can never be underestimated.
Dollar cost averaging is the safe and boring option, but day trading is anything else but boring.

I cannot disagree with you about any of these points.  Many normal folks might feel that they are forced into some kind of a trading and/or gambling approach to their money, since their money is not holding value, so they become more desperate to figure out where to put their money to either increase value or at least to stop their money from losing value as quickly as it would lose value if it were kept in fiat.  So, when the money is not holding value, people become more desperate and status quo rich, financial/government institutions seem to get pleasure in keeping normal folks in such vulnerable statuses.  That is not to say that there are not good people working within various status quo systems, so in that regard many of us can come to feel that we are trapped into not knowing what to do, except something like bitcoin does seem to provide some ways in which some hope can be found, even though not even bitcoin is guaranteed to help any of us escape from already existing problematic fiat and debt based systems.

If traders can admit that their analysis only provides them answers about which outcomes are more probable, then surely overtime more of them should profit rather than not, yet it is likely true that mistakes are many times made so that a decent number of traders are either getting their analysis wrong or they are applying their own trading wrong.

From my observations very few talk about it like this which I would consider very nuanced and correct. Most just say the kind of stuff that I responded to, either the analysis gives you the right answer or you did it wrong. Others which are perhaps fewer in numbers like me say that analysis does not work but I mean in the same sense as you. It does not tell you what is going to happen at all, it gives you probabilities if you did it correctly and one must always remember that things can go wrong because of external events.

I understand that you are likely attempting to criticize folks for their over reliance and bad use of technical analysis, yet I doubt that it is helpful to reinforce the negative aspects of technical analysis and act as if everyone is failing/refusing to account for their technical analysis as probabilities, since an overwhelming majority of the population is not trained in figuring out probabilities, and even in the real world layman's way of speaking we tend to communicate in terms of absolutes rather than probabilities.  Frequently it is more convenient to just give our base case view as if it were going to happen rather than going into nuances, even though surely, if we sit most people down, they are likely going to agree that an overwhelming majority of future outcomes are based on probabilities rather than absolutes, even though some of the probabilities are more guaranteed, such as the sun coming up tomorrow has a very high likelihood of happening, even though it is not guaranteed, yet it still seems to be better to talk about it as a certainty so that we don't get too bogged down in minority scenarios that are not likely to happen anyhow.

There is a bit of a problem to proclaim that attempting to trade and/or analyze shitcoins is the same as doing so in bitcoin, even though shitcoins are correlated to bitcoin, so it is a bit problematic to be proclaiming that they are all the same, and to suggest that there is such a thing as "crypto" without differentiating bitcoin from shitcoins.

You could see it a bit differently. If the analysis does not work for Bitcoin it for sure won't work on shitcoins, so from that I say wider crypto market. Shitcoins are extremely manipulated even the top ones but it gets worse and worse as you go down the ranking list.

Fair enough.

Many of us also have assessed bitcoin as likely to be trending up in the long term, yet it remains problematic to trade it in the short term without accounting for that it is most likely to be ongoingly trending up.  So, perhaps that the best that a bitcoin trader is to do is to attempt to hedge himself against some of the upside while mostly staying in bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade... Maybe 90%-ish investment and then perhaps fucking around with 10% or less in trading, and not necessarily to get a profit, but just to hedge the downside within reasonable parameters.

Yes and I am trying to argue against this day trading. I attempted it a few times in the past and whenever I bought the price went down and whenever I sold the price went up. Inversely correlated as if by magic, I was worse than Jim Cramer. 

It is very tempting to trade, just because we can.  Some folks will move their coins from exchanges so that it makes it difficult for them to sell in order to purposefully put a barrier up for themselves.

It seems difficult for any trader to beat the performance of investing into bitcoin, especially over a couple of cycles or more, and sure there could be some exceptions where a trader has done better than the long term bitcoin investor, but not too likely.

Let me give an example, and say that in late 2013 and early 2014, a person may have had assessed bitcoin as a good investment, inspite of not knowing if the BTC price was at the top of the price range or not, so this person started investing into bitcoin at $200 per week, and so he invested for 11 years at that rate and ended up investing $118k and accumulating about 91.5 BTC.  I have a hard time considering that a trader with the same budget could have had beaten the guy's performance by merely accumulating $200 per week of bitcoin for 11 years.

Probably less than 0.01% of traders managed that and there was a huge luck factor involved. Exactly my point! Day trading takes so much time and since you are very unlikely to beat the DCA why waste your life away at this futile quest?

You keep mentioning day traders, but there are day traders and swing traders. I have not been differentiating, since trading can happen on a variety of levels, so for example some folks try to catch the cycle wave, or maybe some folks invest into bitcoin because they are saving up on a down payment on a house, and so there can be levels in which trading might overlap with investment, and we might argue about if someone is trading or investing.

I personally like to suggest that a person needs to have at least more than a 4 year time horizon to not be a trader, but also I even like to proclaim that even a 4-10 year time horizon for the investment might turn it into a trade unless the reason to have a 4-10 year time horizon is for age and/or health reasons, so even my own definition of investment has become a bit strict in terms of how most people are thinking about the reason that they are in bitcoin and/or how they might get out of bitcoin, since I am largely devolving into framing bitcoin as a life time investment, with a suggestion that once a person is into bitcoin there is likely no reason to get out of it, so then either price based or time based sustainable withdrawal becomes the way to deal with a bitcoin investment in order to mostly keep bitcoin as a lifetime investment rather than as something that is got into and/or out of unless there is some solid reason such as health or age that might cause some need to deplete the principle and to spend all of the bitcoin prior to death and/or incapacitation.

My point is that even if short term trading may be too risky, maintaining a view that the BTC price was mostly trajectored upwards was not a bad way of making sure to continue to accumulate bitcoin and/or to hold on to any bitcoin accumulated with thoughts of long term time horizons in mind.

Long term trend speculation is fine with me, that does not require so much time and is less likely to cause errors. I mean everyone who speculated that gold and Bitcoin would continue a long term upward trajectory at any point of time was correct.

Fuck gold.

Bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch, and is likely to continue to eat gold's lunch, even though gold has been experiencing some recent bounce in its price..

https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/

Bitcoin is in the neighborhood of 1,000x better than gold, even though currently bitcoin's market cap it ONLY in the ballpark of 1/9th that of gold's.

Sure, there could be some folks who are already accustomed to investing in gold (even physical gold), yet I see no justification to keep any more than 10% the size of one's bitcoin allocation in gold, and even 10% might be too generous.

So, the thing is, most folks lose money because they are after that thrill, not really the profit. It's why gambling is such a big deal, even if the odds are always against you and you're probably gonna lose. I think it's the same with day trading.  You are not just trading to earn, you are doing it for that buzz. When you win a bit, you get that happy feeling, making you think you're clever. It's addictive! But when you lose, you just wanna make up for it, so you take bigger chances.  It's a psychological trap, really.

I disagree, it's not the same with day trading. I can understand getting some shitcoin low cap token could be same as gambling, but day trading isn't. Not knowing anything about day trading is the problem, it's the ignorance and confidence somehow combining.

For some weird reason, people who have no idea about charts, about indicators, about patterns, think they can make so much from it because they saw some influencer on instagram and they think they can do the same. What happens as a result? They end up losing, and that's the problem. We have to realize this isn't okay, because if you have no idea about how to do this, then it's not gambling, it's ignorance, wilful ignorance. Learn how to do it properly, and it would be a good thing, not a gambling.

You think that normal people can train their way into being able to be profitable in trading and that trading is a good use of time for normies to figure out how to earn an income or to supplement any income that they already have?

What about if normies can figure out how to earn an income, and then to put extra money from their income into bitcoin, like an investment?  Sure, those who are more passionate about bitcoin could try to figure out how to spend more time, energies and value into bitcoin, so that they are also trying to work in areas related to bitcoin, and surely there are folks who are trapped in their own geography and their relations and their jobs (or their lack of abilities to earn more income), so surely there can be limitations and challenges in regards to what might be available (or not available) to some folks in terms of income opportunities and/or possibilities.

[Dogedegen]

For some weird reason, people who have no idea about charts, about indicators, about patterns, think they can make so much from it because they saw some influencer on instagram and they think they can do the same. What happens as a result? They end up losing, and that's the problem. We have to realize this isn't okay, because if you have no idea about how to do this, then it's not gambling, it's ignorance, wilful ignorance. Learn how to do it properly, and it would be a good thing, not a gambling.

Find me one trader who knows these things and has outperformed a DCA strategy in the last decade. If you can't, then I don't get your argument. It is like arguing that rain is always purple but you've never seen purple rain in your life. Why?

I understand that you are likely attempting to criticize folks for their over reliance and bad use of technical analysis, yet I doubt that it is helpful to reinforce the negative aspects of technical analysis and act as if everyone is failing/refusing to account for their technical analysis as probabilities, since an overwhelming majority of the population is not trained in figuring out probabilities, and even in the real world layman's way of speaking we tend to communicate in terms of absolutes rather than probabilities.  Frequently it is more convenient to just give our base case view as if it were going to happen rather than going into nuances, even though surely, if we sit most people down, they are likely going to agree that an overwhelming majority of future outcomes are based on probabilities rather than absolutes, even though some of the probabilities are more guaranteed, such as the sun coming up tomorrow has a very high likelihood of happening, even though it is not guaranteed, yet it still seems to be better to talk about it as a certainty so that we don't get too bogged down in minority scenarios that are not likely to happen anyhow.

You really believe this? My experience is the exact opposite of this. The deeper I go down with a person the more I realize just how superficial their knowledge is. Usually they don't know much, especially people who consider themselves crypto traders or whatever.

It is very tempting to trade, just because we can.  Some folks will move their coins from exchanges so that it makes it difficult for them to sell in order to purposefully put a barrier up for themselves.

Temptation is not an issue if you are a fast experience based learner. Many people can't control themselves at all and in that case the example that you mention does help a lot. In my case I gave up very quickly, it just annoyed me too much.

You keep mentioning day traders, but there are day traders and swing traders. I have not been differentiating, since trading can happen on a variety of levels, so for example some folks try to catch the cycle wave, or maybe some folks invest into bitcoin because they are saving up on a down payment on a house, and so there can be levels in which trading might overlap with investment, and we might argue about if someone is trading or investing.

Of course I have, because this thread is targeting many people who are glued to the screen trying to be traders. I don't think swing traders are relevant to this criticism as long as they are doing this on long horizons such as those trying to catch the cycle waves. Still one must also always recognize that there are risks with that too. One bad cycle trade could wipe out a lot of past gains.

I personally like to suggest that a person needs to have at least more than a 4 year time horizon to not be a trader, but also I even like to proclaim that even a 4-10 year time horizon for the investment might turn it into a trade unless the reason to have a 4-10 year time horizon is for age and/or health reasons, so even my own definition of investment has become a bit strict in terms of how most people are thinking about the reason that they are in bitcoin and/or how they might get out of bitcoin, since I am largely devolving into framing bitcoin as a life time investment, with a suggestion that once a person is into bitcoin there is likely no reason to get out of it, so then either price based or time based sustainable withdrawal becomes the way to deal with a bitcoin investment in order to mostly keep bitcoin as a lifetime investment rather than as something that is got into and/or out of unless there is some solid reason such as health or age that might cause some need to deplete the principle and to spend all of the bitcoin prior to death and/or incapacitation.

Good points and a good view. Bitcoin as a life time investment. I do like how that sounds and it goes along with what I personally plan to do. I don't see a reason to ever get out fully, it just does not make any sense. At $500k or $1m I would like to buy some assets to reduce costs and generate cash flow. Other than that I don't need to sell ever. I think a lot of people will be surprised by Bitcoin's price performance in the future. It has always been underestimated, very few expected it could reach $100k if you go at least 2 cycles back or more. Most people calling any future maximal price are likely to be wrong than not. The power of hard money in a extremely inflating world, the effects compound in so many ways.

My point is that even if short term trading may be too risky, maintaining a view that the BTC price was mostly trajectored upwards was not a bad way of making sure to continue to accumulate bitcoin and/or to hold on to any bitcoin accumulated with thoughts of long term time horizons in mind.

Long term trend speculation is fine with me, that does not require so much time and is less likely to cause errors. I mean everyone who speculated that gold and Bitcoin would continue a long term upward trajectory at any point of time was correct.

Fuck gold.

Bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch, and is likely to continue to eat gold's lunch, even though gold has been experiencing some recent bounce in its price..

https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/

Bitcoin is in the neighborhood of 1,000x better than gold, even though currently bitcoin's market cap it ONLY in the ballpark of 1/9th that of gold's.

Sure, there could be some folks who are already accustomed to investing in gold (even physical gold), yet I see no justification to keep any more than 10% the size of one's bitcoin allocation in gold, and even 10% might be too generous.

I am not advocating for gold though, I just gave an example other than Bitcoin that goes along with what you said. You can pick any other example that you see fit.

[JayJuanGee]

I understand that you are likely attempting to criticize folks for their over reliance and bad use of technical analysis, yet I doubt that it is helpful to reinforce the negative aspects of technical analysis and act as if everyone is failing/refusing to account for their technical analysis as probabilities, since an overwhelming majority of the population is not trained in figuring out probabilities, and even in the real world layman's way of speaking we tend to communicate in terms of absolutes rather than probabilities.  Frequently it is more convenient to just give our base case view as if it were going to happen rather than going into nuances, even though surely, if we sit most people down, they are likely going to agree that an overwhelming majority of future outcomes are based on probabilities rather than absolutes, even though some of the probabilities are more guaranteed, such as the sun coming up tomorrow has a very high likelihood of happening, even though it is not guaranteed, yet it still seems to be better to talk about it as a certainty so that we don't get too bogged down in minority scenarios that are not likely to happen anyhow.

You really believe this? My experience is the exact opposite of this. The deeper I go down with a person the more I realize just how superficial their knowledge is. Usually they don't know much, especially people who consider themselves crypto traders or whatever.

I would rather presume people are intelligent rationale (and even with mixed emotional motivations) actors rather than presuming everyone is retarded - even if they are not able to articulate their motivations or their views or the world or why they are acting in the way that they are acting...  ... Sure, some folks get sucked into wrong theories, and many of us studying bitcoin have come to realize that various aspects of the fiat and debt based systems have created a lot of bad incentives for folks in a game that is rigged - at least rigged in regards to the money being ongoingly debased and also rigged in the way that some players are able to advantage disproportionately as compared with others.. so yeah, a lot of folks are sucked into gambling and trading and even spending their money as soon as they get it on stupid stuff, since the money does not hold value.

A similar thing is true with Gresham's law.  People may well have hardly any clue what the fuck Gresham's law is, but they will likely follow it, which means that they spend the less valuable assets first and they save/guard the more valuable assets, which causes market dynamics in which the money will flow into the most valuable of assets/currencies - even if there might be various ways that governments and/or banks will create false incentives or obstacles to force a choosing of using and/or holding inferior assets/currencies.

It is very tempting to trade, just because we can.  Some folks will move their coins from exchanges so that it makes it difficult for them to sell in order to purposefully put a barrier up for themselves.

Temptation is not an issue if you are a fast experience based learner. Many people can't control themselves at all and in that case the example that you mention does help a lot. In my case I gave up very quickly, it just annoyed me too much.

Sure, there are a lot of folks who will come to believe that trading can get them to a better place as compared with investing, so they may well end up screwing up their own situation by losing focus into a world of trading rather than focusing on persistent, consistent, regular, ongoing and perhaps even aggressive buying of bitcoin within their means.. .and/or realizing that it may well take 4-10 years or more just to build up their bitcoin holdings to a decently large enough place, and that trying to trade is not likely to help them to get to their prefered destination in a quicker way.

You keep mentioning day traders, but there are day traders and swing traders. I have not been differentiating, since trading can happen on a variety of levels, so for example some folks try to catch the cycle wave, or maybe some folks invest into bitcoin because they are saving up on a down payment on a house, and so there can be levels in which trading might overlap with investment, and we might argue about if someone is trading or investing.

Of course I have, because this thread is targeting many people who are glued to the screen trying to be traders. I don't think swing traders are relevant to this criticism as long as they are doing this on long horizons such as those trying to catch the cycle waves. Still one must also always recognize that there are risks with that too. One bad cycle trade could wipe out a lot of past gains.

I might have fallen into the wrong conversation, then, and surely  it can be difficult to figure out where to draw the line between the kind of folks you (or behaviors) that you are criticizing as compared to the kind of portfolio management ideas and/or practices that you might consider acceptable and/or reasonable.. since the longer term traders are not necessarily looking for a short term flip.

I will agree that it becomes more complicated if we start to consider the 4-10 year holder as a trader who might also suffer from merely wanting to flip his bitcoin into dollars (even though he has a longer time horizon.)

I personally like to suggest that a person needs to have at least more than a 4 year time horizon to not be a trader, but also I even like to proclaim that even a 4-10 year time horizon for the investment might turn it into a trade unless the reason to have a 4-10 year time horizon is for age and/or health reasons, so even my own definition of investment has become a bit strict in terms of how most people are thinking about the reason that they are in bitcoin and/or how they might get out of bitcoin, since I am largely devolving into framing bitcoin as a life time investment, with a suggestion that once a person is into bitcoin there is likely no reason to get out of it, so then either price based or time based sustainable withdrawal becomes the way to deal with a bitcoin investment in order to mostly keep bitcoin as a lifetime investment rather than as something that is got into and/or out of unless there is some solid reason such as health or age that might cause some need to deplete the principle and to spend all of the bitcoin prior to death and/or incapacitation.

Good points and a good view. Bitcoin as a life time investment. I do like how that sounds and it goes along with what I personally plan to do. I don't see a reason to ever get out fully, it just does not make any sense.

My sustainable withdrawal thread attempts to address these issues, which is that I largely frame sustainable withdrawal in terms of price based sustainable withdrawal and time-based sustainable withdrawal.

The underlying idea is that none of us should be withdrawing from our bitcoin until we have reached overaccumulation status, and so then if we have reached over accumulation status, then there is nothing wrong with spending from within the overaccumulated amount.

So for example if a guy had been investing for 10 years, and he had a income that started out at around $25k per year 10 years ago, and ended with an income of around $40k per year (currently), so by the time he got to his current income of $40k per year, he started to consider that if he were going to quit his job and completely live off of his bitcoin, then he would prefer his bitcoin to be able to sustain him at an annual income of at least $80k, so that he would consider that he would have enough of a cushion so that he would not be worried about whether he had enough bitcoin or that he had quit his job too soon.

We can look at my bitcoin value assessing tool, and we can see that if a guy had at least 15.1377 bitcoin right now, then he could sustainably withdraw at $80k per year, including that he could give himself a 7% per year raise (in dollar terms).. and so he could do that forever by starting out with a current bitcoin quantity of 15.1377.

We can also see that if our hypothetical guy had started investing into bitcoin around September 2015 at $100 per week, within about 8 years, he would have had invested right around $42k, and he would have had accumulated right around 21 bitcoin, which largely leaves him with close to 6 BTC more than what he had calculatee to be his minimum number of BTC to constitute his desired income of $80k per year.

He can spend within the overaccumulated quantity of nearly 6 bitcoin, and never go below being in overaccumulated status as long as he is spending within the overaccumulated bitcoin so that the value of his bitcoin is on average going up faster than the rate that he is spending from it, which means that he can accomplish such sustainable withdrawal perpetually....

Even if he were to want to use the 21 bitcoin as his base valuation of his BTC holdings, then he will see that with that quantity of bitcoin, he is able to perpetually withdraw at $111k per year, including 7% per year increases in the cash value.

At $500k or $1m I would like to buy some assets to reduce costs and generate cash flow. Other than that I don't need to sell ever.

Sure, we sell at spot price, but we can figure out systems to sustainably withdraw in either or both of the price based and time based sustainable withdrawal systems that I discuss in my thread.. and yeah, for sure, each of us has to make sure that we are making our calculations correct so that we do not end up withdrawing our stash down below overaccumulation status, and I use the 200-
WMA to make such measurements, and so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has only been going up, yet if we are worried about the valuation of our stash and if we might be withdrawing too much, we can withdraw at lower levels to make sure that our bitcoin continues to grow at least at the rate that we are withdrawing from it.
 

I think a lot of people will be surprised by Bitcoin's price performance in the future. It has always been underestimated, very few expected it could reach $100k if you go at least 2 cycles back or more. Most people calling any future maximal price are likely to be wrong than not. The power of hard money in a extremely inflating world, the effects compound in so many ways.

Since BTC spot price is quite variable, I project the 200-WMA out with an expectation that it is going to continue to diminish in its  rate of upward growth, and since we cannot really determine the future, I have been plugging updated numbers into my projection of the 200-WMA every 6 months, and of course if the spot price goes  up more then it will have an upward dragging effect on the 200-WMA, and then same is true if the BTC spot price does not go up as much then the 200-WMA will not move up as much, either...

My point is that even if short term trading may be too risky, maintaining a view that the BTC price was mostly trajectored upwards was not a bad way of making sure to continue to accumulate bitcoin and/or to hold on to any bitcoin accumulated with thoughts of long term time horizons in mind.

Long term trend speculation is fine with me, that does not require so much time and is less likely to cause errors. I mean everyone who speculated that gold and Bitcoin would continue a long term upward trajectory at any point of time was correct.

Fuck gold.
Bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch, and is likely to continue to eat gold's lunch, even though gold has been experiencing some recent bounce in its price..
https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/

Bitcoin is in the neighborhood of 1,000x better than gold, even though currently bitcoin's market cap it ONLY in the ballpark of 1/9th that of gold's.
Sure, there could be some folks who are already accustomed to investing in gold (even physical gold), yet I see no justification to keep any more than 10% the size of one's bitcoin allocation in gold, and even 10% might be too generous.

I am not advocating for gold though, I just gave an example other than Bitcoin that goes along with what you said. You can pick any other example that you see fit.

Bitcoin is a paradigm changing technology, so there is nothing really to compare it to.. unless we take into account the s-curve exponential curve.  Gold is a mature asset, and even if we pick some commodities or property or rare paintings, we cannot use some of those items as currencies, so there are no comparisons, unless we want to compare shitcoins, which shitcoins are inadequate comparisons, too.

[EluguHcman]

I understand that you are likely attempting to criticize folks for their over reliance and bad use of technical analysis, yet I doubt that it is helpful to reinforce the negative aspects of technical analysis and act as if everyone is failing/refusing to account for their technical analysis as probabilities, since an overwhelming majority of the population is not trained in figuring out probabilities, and even in the real world layman's way of speaking we tend to communicate in terms of absolutes rather than probabilities.  Frequently it is more convenient to just give our base case view as if it were going to happen rather than going into nuances, even though surely, if we sit most people down, they are likely going to agree that an overwhelming majority of future outcomes are based on probabilities rather than absolutes, even though some of the probabilities are more guaranteed, such as the sun coming up tomorrow has a very high likelihood of happening, even though it is not guaranteed, yet it still seems to be better to talk about it as a certainty so that we don't get too bogged down in minority scenarios that are not likely to happen anyhow.

You really believe this? My experience is the exact opposite of this. The deeper I go down with a person the more I realize just how superficial their knowledge is. Usually they don't know much, especially people who consider themselves crypto traders or whatever.

I would rather presume people are intelligent rationale (and even with mixed emotional motivations) actors rather than presuming everyone is retarded - even if they are not able to articulate their motivations or their views or the world or why they are acting in the way that they are acting...  ... Sure, some folks get sucked into wrong theories, and many of us studying bitcoin have come to realize that various aspects of the fiat and debt based systems have created a lot of bad incentives for folks in a game that is rigged - at least rigged in regards to the money being ongoingly debased and also rigged in the way that some players are able to advantage disproportionately as compared with others.. so yeah, a lot of folks are sucked into gambling and trading and even spending their money as soon as they get it on stupid stuff, since the money does not hold value.

A similar thing is true with Gresham's law.  People may well have hardly any clue what the fuck Gresham's law is, but they will likely follow it, which means that they spend the less valuable assets first and they save/guard the more valuable assets, which causes market dynamics in which the money will flow into the most valuable of assets/currencies - even if there might be various ways that governments and/or banks will create false incentives or obstacles to force a choosing of using and/or holding inferior assets/currencies.

It is okay if dogmatism could light your paths in the crypto worid since we all have our unique form of reacting to the markets emotionally and of course our approaches of trying to actualize some valuables in the space since banks had failed and countries geographically and geopolitical economy sentiments has also drawn boundaries across. So the fiats are quite fading out while individuals haven the opportunity to hold their funds in the Bitcoin which has since of origin bren proven worth haven.

Infact, the system has been testnet and realistically reliable while it require risk bearers to go by its preferences on uncertainty.
So if you are optimistic, definitely your optimisms would serve as encouragement tool while anticipating regularly/irregularly towards what is likely to occur in the future leaving it "hopeful" for adoptors.

Therefore, if becomes obstinate, then must always be close-minded to fit-n the awakened era to foresee Bitcoin as a likelihood to restore our monetary values that is being shrink by economy sentiments.

[Dogedegen]

I would rather presume people are intelligent rationale (and even with mixed emotional motivations) actors rather than presuming everyone is retarded - even if they are not able to articulate their motivations or their views or the world or why they are acting in the way that they are acting...  ... Sure, some folks get sucked into wrong theories, and many of us studying bitcoin have come to realize that various aspects of the fiat and debt based systems have created a lot of bad incentives for folks in a game that is rigged - at least rigged in regards to the money being ongoingly debased and also rigged in the way that some players are able to advantage disproportionately as compared with others.. so yeah, a lot of folks are sucked into gambling and trading and even spending their money as soon as they get it on stupid stuff, since the money does not hold value.

Actually I agree with you, that kind of world view is optimistic and overall better than the alternative. Maybe I should have phrased my question a bit differently. Despite your belief in this, is this really what you have experienced in live? That more people are intelligently rational than retarded as you put it? Or have you had a different experience, but still hold to your view?

I might have fallen into the wrong conversation, then, and surely  it can be difficult to figure out where to draw the line between the kind of folks you (or behaviors) that you are criticizing as compared to the kind of portfolio management ideas and/or practices that you might consider acceptable and/or reasonable.. since the longer term traders are not necessarily looking for a short term flip.

Maybe the mistake is mine, I could have adjusted the title before posting it. It would be more accurate to make it more focused on some types of speculation. The problem is that there are many subtypes to get a nice title that covers it with precision without it being too long. I tried to imply throughout the first post that my target is day traders and speculators. A lot of retail people did this in the last cycle because they were mostly at home because of the COVID stuff. If you think about it, the downsides that I mention are most strongly found with that kind of speculator. Those that trade based on overall trends like the cycle do not need to spend that much time on it when compared to this.

My sustainable withdrawal thread attempts to address these issues, which is that I largely frame sustainable withdrawal in terms of price based sustainable withdrawal and time-based sustainable withdrawal.

The underlying idea is that none of us should be withdrawing from our bitcoin until we have reached overaccumulation status, and so then if we have reached over accumulation status, then there is nothing wrong with spending from within the overaccumulated amount.

So for example if a guy had been investing for 10 years, and he had a income that started out at around $25k per year 10 years ago, and ended with an income of around $40k per year (currently), so by the time he got to his current income of $40k per year, he started to consider that if he were going to quit his job and completely live off of his bitcoin, then he would prefer his bitcoin to be able to sustain him at an annual income of at least $80k, so that he would consider that he would have enough of a cushion so that he would not be worried about whether he had enough bitcoin or that he had quit his job too soon.

We can look at my bitcoin value assessing tool, and we can see that if a guy had at least 15.1377 bitcoin right now, then he could sustainably withdraw at $80k per year, including that he could give himself a 7% per year raise (in dollar terms).. and so he could do that forever by starting out with a current bitcoin quantity of 15.1377.

We can also see that if our hypothetical guy had started investing into bitcoin around September 2015 at $100 per week, within about 8 years, he would have had invested right around $42k, and he would have had accumulated right around 21 bitcoin, which largely leaves him with close to 6 BTC more than what he had calculatee to be his minimum number of BTC to constitute his desired income of $80k per year.

He can spend within the overaccumulated quantity of nearly 6 bitcoin, and never go below being in overaccumulated status as long as he is spending within the overaccumulated bitcoin so that the value of his bitcoin is on average going up faster than the rate that he is spending from it, which means that he can accomplish such sustainable withdrawal perpetually....

Even if he were to want to use the 21 bitcoin as his base valuation of his BTC holdings, then he will see that with that quantity of bitcoin, he is able to perpetually withdraw at $111k per year, including 7% per year increases in the cash value.

This is quite something and I have said this already in another thread where we are conversing. I have not encountered this strategy before and actually have not even heard anything similar from the people I have talked to over the years. That part in the middle proves the power of the DCA strategy and when combined with the strategy of withdrawing as you propose the situation becomes amazing. This is so much better than any of those Bitcoin-backed loans schemes because those tend to have a high interest rate even if you ignore all the risks that come with the potential bankruptcy of the credit provider.

Bitcoin is a paradigm changing technology, so there is nothing really to compare it to.. unless we take into account the s-curve exponential curve.  Gold is a mature asset, and even if we pick some commodities or property or rare paintings, we cannot use some of those items as currencies, so there are no comparisons, unless we want to compare shitcoins, which shitcoins are inadequate comparisons, too.

I am sorry but it seems that we have completely misunderstood each other at this point. I was not making a comparison of anything. You were talking about a long term upwards speculation being a good move. I agreed and mentioned that basically everyone who speculated on Bitcoin this way at any point of time was correct. To this I added the example of gold too, but you can cherry pick many stocks or SP500 or whatever else you want. This does not mean I am making a comparison, I am merely giving examples where long term upwards speculation was proven to be correct.

[JayJuanGee]

I would rather presume people are intelligent rationale (and even with mixed emotional motivations) actors rather than presuming everyone is retarded - even if they are not able to articulate their motivations or their views or the world or why they are acting in the way that they are acting...  ... Sure, some folks get sucked into wrong theories, and many of us studying bitcoin have come to realize that various aspects of the fiat and debt based systems have created a lot of bad incentives for folks in a game that is rigged - at least rigged in regards to the money being ongoingly debased and also rigged in the way that some players are able to advantage disproportionately as compared with others.. so yeah, a lot of folks are sucked into gambling and trading and even spending their money as soon as they get it on stupid stuff, since the money does not hold value.

Actually I agree with you, that kind of world view is optimistic and overall better than the alternative. Maybe I should have phrased my question a bit differently. Despite your belief in this, is this really what you have experienced in live? That more people are intelligently rational than retarded as you put it? Or have you had a different experience, but still hold to your view?

What am I supposed to do?  Survey everyone?  I think that I am talking from experience, as far as I know.

Sure people do all kinds of dumb shit, and when I might be observing others, I might not understand why they do such dumb things, yet bitcoin gives us some remedies in terms of helping to create sound money and potentially better incentives, yet ONLY about 1% or perhaps slightly more of the world's population own any significant amount of bitcoin or understand what it is. 

Yes.  People have heard the word bitcoin, but they hardly have any clue what it is, even if we talk about bitcoin with them, including people who buy bitcoin might ONLY know bitcoin as number go up technology, and if number doesn't go up, then they might get discouraged in holding it.

So yeah people tend to want to gamble and to take chances when they should be more prudent, and part of the reason that they go down such paths is because the fiat and money based system is broken and sending out bad signals in regards to the rewarding of proof of work and/or proof of merit.

I might have fallen into the wrong conversation, then, and surely  it can be difficult to figure out where to draw the line between the kind of folks you (or behaviors) that you are criticizing as compared to the kind of portfolio management ideas and/or practices that you might consider acceptable and/or reasonable.. since the longer term traders are not necessarily looking for a short term flip.

Maybe the mistake is mine, I could have adjusted the title before posting it. It would be more accurate to make it more focused on some types of speculation. The problem is that there are many subtypes to get a nice title that covers it with precision without it being too long. I tried to imply throughout the first post that my target is day traders and speculators. A lot of retail people did this in the last cycle because they were mostly at home because of the COVID stuff. If you think about it, the downsides that I mention are most strongly found with that kind of speculator. Those that trade based on overall trends like the cycle do not need to spend that much time on it when compared to this.

People tend to be busy attempting to lead a normal life, such as raising kids or whatever might be the case based on their life trajectory and choices that they make, and many folks do not have time to try to day trade, especially if they might be making a living in their regular job or maybe working towards getting into a job if they happen to be in their younger years and learning about the world or learning their trade.

Of course, if a young person comes up without very many resources and unable to find work, then he might get sucked into more desperate actions, and surely folks who lose their ability to earn might get sucked into trying to trade, too.

Just because we see a lot of traders in forums like this, it does not mean that trading is necessarily representative of what people do or want to do, even though it gets a lot  of hype and there are even "influencers" trying to train folks to be better traders (for a fee of course).

My sustainable withdrawal thread attempts to address these issues, which is that I largely frame sustainable withdrawal in terms of price based sustainable withdrawal and time-based sustainable withdrawal.

The underlying idea is that none of us should be withdrawing from our bitcoin until we have reached overaccumulation status, and so then if we have reached over accumulation status, then there is nothing wrong with spending from within the overaccumulated amount.

So for example if a guy had been investing for 10 years, and he had a income that started out at around $25k per year 10 years ago, and ended with an income of around $40k per year (currently), so by the time he got to his current income of $40k per year, he started to consider that if he were going to quit his job and completely live off of his bitcoin, then he would prefer his bitcoin to be able to sustain him at an annual income of at least $80k, so that he would consider that he would have enough of a cushion so that he would not be worried about whether he had enough bitcoin or that he had quit his job too soon.

We can look at my bitcoin value assessing tool, and we can see that if a guy had at least 15.1377 bitcoin right now, then he could sustainably withdraw at $80k per year, including that he could give himself a 7% per year raise (in dollar terms).. and so he could do that forever by starting out with a current bitcoin quantity of 15.1377.

We can also see that if our hypothetical guy had started investing into bitcoin around September 2015 at $100 per week, within about 8 years, he would have had invested right around $42k, and he would have had accumulated right around 21 bitcoin, which largely leaves him with close to 6 BTC more than what he had calculatee to be his minimum number of BTC to constitute his desired income of $80k per year.

He can spend within the overaccumulated quantity of nearly 6 bitcoin, and never go below being in overaccumulated status as long as he is spending within the overaccumulated bitcoin so that the value of his bitcoin is on average going up faster than the rate that he is spending from it, which means that he can accomplish such sustainable withdrawal perpetually....

Even if he were to want to use the 21 bitcoin as his base valuation of his BTC holdings, then he will see that with that quantity of bitcoin, he is able to perpetually withdraw at $111k per year, including 7% per year increases in the cash value.

This is quite something and I have said this already in another thread where we are conversing. I have not encountered this strategy before and actually have not even heard anything similar from the people I have talked to over the years. That part in the middle proves the power of the DCA strategy and when combined with the strategy of withdrawing as you propose the situation becomes amazing. This is so much better than any of those Bitcoin-backed loans schemes because those tend to have a high interest rate even if you ignore all the risks that come with the potential bankruptcy of the credit provider.

I am not saying anything new, even though I am attempting to tailor the situation towards bitcoin.

Investment consultants have talked about sustainable withdrawal for decades, and they tend to use a 4% withdrawal matter, yet after I built my own tool I found that it is likely that bitcoin can sustain a 10% withdrawal rate as long as valuation is based on the 200-WMA.

Of course if we are withdrawing bitcoin based on spot price, then the calculations might end up going all over the place.

Part of the key is getting to a status in which you have enough bitcoin and/or more than enough bitcoin, and so once you get to that status, then bitcoin is likely going to continue to be a great way to live off of your investment, whether bitcoin is the primary source of income or if bitcoin supplements other income sources that a guy might have.

It can still take a guy a couple of cycles, even if he were to be investing 25% of his income into bitcoin, to be able to reach a status where he can start to live off of his bitcoin at either the rate of his current income or at a rate that might be at a higher target level.  Guys have to engage in some calculations to make sure that they are not withdrawing too much too soon and that they are staying within sustainable withdrawal amounts.

And of course, there is an ongoing expectation that the BTC price (even the 200-WMA) will continue to slow down or lessen in terms of its CAGR (compound annual growth rate), so we should be attempting to account for these kinds of matters when we are working towards building our bitcoin holdings and/or once we might start to expect to be able to live on the income (the appreciation) of our bitcoin.

Bitcoin is a paradigm changing technology, so there is nothing really to compare it to.. unless we take into account the s-curve exponential curve.  Gold is a mature asset, and even if we pick some commodities or property or rare paintings, we cannot use some of those items as currencies, so there are no comparisons, unless we want to compare shitcoins, which shitcoins are inadequate comparisons, too.

I am sorry but it seems that we have completely misunderstood each other at this point. I was not making a comparison of anything. You were talking about a long term upwards speculation being a good move. I agreed and mentioned that basically everyone who speculated on Bitcoin this way at any point of time was correct. To this I added the example of gold too, but you can cherry pick many stocks or SP500 or whatever else you want. This does not mean I am making a comparison, I am merely giving examples where long term upwards speculation was proven to be correct.

Then that means that we largely agree on this point, even if we might express our agreement in different ways, no?

Accordingly we may well agree that:

1) Historically bitcoin has been the best performing asset.

2) There is no evidence that bitcoin is not going to continue to be the best performing asset, so it likely is good to stay invested in bitcoin.

and perhaps 3)  The future is not guaranteed, so even though bitcoin is and has been the best performing asset, there are still uncertainties in the world (and even in bitcoin's future), yet that does not mean we should not invest into bitcoin, but instead the uncertainty might justify that we don't pu all of our eggs in one basket.

I am likely taking you away from your thread since I am largely wanting to talk about bitcoin as an investment, and I give few shits about others wanting to trade or inclined to trade or gamble on either trading bitcoin or playing around with shitcoins, even though they do it, I would rather talk about best practices in regards to investing in bitcoin, and perhaps anyone who has inclinations to either trade bitcoin or gamble or involve themselves in shitcoins, then they should attempt to limit their exposure to such inferior practices to less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin investment.

[Dogedegen]

What am I supposed to do?  Survey everyone?  I think that I am talking from experience, as far as I know.

Survey everyone, I'll wait here for you to complete the survey.  Just kidding, I wanted to know. Sometimes people stick to their beliefs contrary to their observations. Sometimes this makes very good sense, other times it is very bad. I just wanted to get your take on it and now it is clear.

Sure people do all kinds of dumb shit, and when I might be observing others, I might not understand why they do such dumb things, yet bitcoin gives us some remedies in terms of helping to create sound money and potentially better incentives, yet ONLY about 1% or perhaps slightly more of the world's population own any significant amount of bitcoin or understand what it is. 

I wonder if we have really cracked the 1% mark. I mean retained 1%. Surely based on exchange registrations we have cracked this number but I am interested in the retained number of users. Those who have not registered in the last run, bought, sold after the price was going down and ran away.

Yes.  People have heard the word bitcoin, but they hardly have any clue what it is, even if we talk about bitcoin with them, including people who buy bitcoin might ONLY know bitcoin as number go up technology, and if number doesn't go up, then they might get discouraged in holding it.

Things can be funny during peak bull run euphoria on this subjects. Locally people emerge who proclaim themselves to be Bitcoin experts or know someone who has always an Bitcoin expert. It could even be your taxi man. These people are among the group that knows the last.

People tend to be busy attempting to lead a normal life, such as raising kids or whatever might be the case based on their life trajectory and choices that they make, and many folks do not have time to try to day trade, especially if they might be making a living in their regular job or maybe working towards getting into a job if they happen to be in their younger years and learning about the world or learning their trade.

I try to make the case here that these kinds of activities are much more worthwhile that losing your life glued to a screen, for most people anyway.

Of course, if a young person comes up without very many resources and unable to find work, then he might get sucked into more desperate actions, and surely folks who lose their ability to earn might get sucked into trying to trade, too.

Sadly this is also why so many scams of all kinds work. Their desperation and lack of education relating to scammers and their methods pushes them into believing that they have found the next Bitcoin.

I am not saying anything new, even though I am attempting to tailor the situation towards bitcoin.

Investment consultants have talked about sustainable withdrawal for decades, and they tend to use a 4% withdrawal matter, yet after I built my own tool I found that it is likely that bitcoin can sustain a 10% withdrawal rate as long as valuation is based on the 200-WMA.

Perhaps not but I have not really seen this strategy being advocated in Bitcoin or crypto circles. With so many alleged investment and trading gurus around one would expect at least 1 of them to dig up an actually good strategy. 

Of course if we are withdrawing bitcoin based on spot price, then the calculations might end up going all over the place.

Part of the key is getting to a status in which you have enough bitcoin and/or more than enough bitcoin, and so once you get to that status, then bitcoin is likely going to continue to be a great way to live off of your investment, whether bitcoin is the primary source of income or if bitcoin supplements other income sources that a guy might have.

I also see that there is a huge difference between withdrawing based on spot price and the 200-WMA when I click the button in the tool that you linked. I really want to see some data after the fact from someone. Let's say a person who has been following this strategy consistently for 5 or 10 years. It is very nice that the website offers you a historical simulation but still I would like to hear someone's personal story with data.

Further I would like to see a chart that kind of tries to estimate the future, like the depletion rate of your balance even though it would have a big speculative elements since we can't be sure of the 200-WMA values in advance. But it could also have cases like this one, so perhaps a bearish, bullish and conservative estimation of 200-WMA and then simulate BTC balance depletion and total money withdrawal in USD through time. It would be very interesting for me!

Then that means that we largely agree on this point, even if we might express our agreement in different ways, no?

Accordingly we may well agree that:

1) Historically bitcoin has been the best performing asset.

2) There is no evidence that bitcoin is not going to continue to be the best performing asset, so it likely is good to stay invested in bitcoin.

and perhaps 3)  The future is not guaranteed, so even though bitcoin is and has been the best performing asset, there are still uncertainties in the world (and even in bitcoin's future), yet that does not mean we should not invest into bitcoin, but instead the uncertainty might justify that we don't pu all of our eggs in one basket.

We are in agreement indeed, on all three points. On the third one I would like to add that in general I see that argument as deeply flawed. That the future is not guaranteed is not a valid excuse for not investing in Bitcoin because that argument can be used against anything. Why invest in anything at all since the future is not guaranteed? Very weak argument that has been historically used against it but it does not directly apply to Bitcoin. It could perhaps only be added as a caveat or a note when talking about these things.

I am likely taking you away from your thread since I am largely wanting to talk about bitcoin as an investment, and I give few shits about others wanting to trade or inclined to trade or gamble on either trading bitcoin or playing around with shitcoins, even though they do it, I would rather talk about best practices in regards to investing in bitcoin, and perhaps anyone who has inclinations to either trade bitcoin or gamble or involve themselves in shitcoins, then they should attempt to limit their exposure to such inferior practices to less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin investment.

Well yes we are diverging a bit, but I don't mind. It is much better to engage with posts like this than with some generic responses that I see in threads. I hope to see more content like yours from different users. Anyway you can make a case that any kind of strategy involves some degree of speculation even if it is a very tiny amount, so even this discussion can be argued to be fully on topic.

[GeorgeJohn]

You gotta trade for a side hustle not main income.
DCA is the only solid way to build your wealth. Trading is to scalp some money from the market and add it to your DCA weight.
Majority of people are losing in trading because majority of people aren't disciplined with their trades.

If they can keep low amount of money for trading and mantain DCA. I'm sure they will be successful easy.

The problem some of us have today is greediness and without greediness I don't think that most of us won't know when invest large and small, for the aspect of DCA, an experience person will invest what it can afford to lose so that when the market goes against expectations it will not really affect the invest...but the problem that affect us that much is greediness, whenever you invest in cryptocurrency what we expect is huge profit and that is applicable to trading, especially someone who has not understand the scenario's of trading very well will think that the best option to invest in trading is to put whatever you have in it, my advice is that invest on what you can afford to lose even in DCA, ensure that you invest on what you can afford to lose, do not because of the nature of the market at the moment and invest above your plans.

[JayJuanGee]

What am I supposed to do?  Survey everyone?  I think that I am talking from experience, as far as I know.

Survey everyone, I'll wait here for you to complete the survey.  Just kidding, I wanted to know. Sometimes people stick to their beliefs contrary to their observations. Sometimes this makes very good sense, other times it is very bad. I just wanted to get your take on it and now it is clear.

Sure people do all kinds of dumb shit, and when I might be observing others, I might not understand why they do such dumb things, yet bitcoin gives us some remedies in terms of helping to create sound money and potentially better incentives, yet ONLY about 1% or perhaps slightly more of the world's population own any significant amount of bitcoin or understand what it is. 

I wonder if we have really cracked the 1% mark. I mean retained 1%. Surely based on exchange registrations we have cracked this number but I am interested in the retained number of users. Those who have not registered in the last run, bought, sold after the price was going down and ran away.

Yeah... it can be difficult to measure the extent to which we might be over or under 1% of world-wide adoption, and even those who own bitcoin, might not really have self-sovereignty over it if it is on an exchange or owned through an ETF.. but it still might count for something of owner-like - especially to the extent that it is backed by actual bitcoin that is not being fractionally reserved and/or double/triple (or more) counted.

And, yeah, there are questions regarding the quantity that anyone holds and if it might be a meaningful part of their wealth and questions about if they hold it for any duration of time.. so surely if someone might be a current holder of 0.1 BTC, but then any kind of scare or temporary glitch in the market and such person sells - so in that sense number of holders based on any snapshot would be changing and yeah, maybe they don't count if they have not held for a long enough period of time.

Yes.  People have heard the word bitcoin, but they hardly have any clue what it is, even if we talk about bitcoin with them, including people who buy bitcoin might ONLY know bitcoin as number go up technology, and if number doesn't go up, then they might get discouraged in holding it.

Things can be funny during peak bull run euphoria on this subjects. Locally people emerge who proclaim themselves to be Bitcoin experts or know someone who has always an Bitcoin expert. It could even be your taxi man. These people are among the group that knows the last.

A few years ago (it may have been in the summer of 2021), i was talking to one of my relatives, and he had become a recent entrant into bitcoin and shitcoins (mostly shitcoins) and he was calling himself a crypto influencer, and he had not even been involved more than a year.  I asked him about one of his shitcoins, and he said that he was planning on holding it "for life," and I was quite surprised, since I was trying to let him know that he is not investing, but instead trading if he is not willing to hold for many years, perhaps a cycle or two.

The next summer when I saw him, he had sold all of his shitcoins and bitcoin, and he was being a bit coy about whatever he was doing.. like he was not involved in any of it anymore.. so surely he did not have any stamina, and a bit embarrassing to try to talk with him, since he acts a bit like a know it all type, and that did not really work out for him very well in regards to whatever he was trying to do in "crypto," and he did not seem to understand the difference (in any experiential sense) between investing and trading.

People tend to be busy attempting to lead a normal life, such as raising kids or whatever might be the case based on their life trajectory and choices that they make, and many folks do not have time to try to day trade, especially if they might be making a living in their regular job or maybe working towards getting into a job if they happen to be in their younger years and learning about the world or learning their trade.

I try to make the case here that these kinds of activities are much more worthwhile that losing your life glued to a screen, for most people anyway.

People are in differing stages of their lives, and surely some attend university or trade school and others go straight into working with something lucrative jobs and other times with dead end jobs that are not always known to be dead end jobs, so sometimes there can be challenges for guys to get themselves into situations where they can save and/or invest.

Accordingly there is a difference between earning a living outside of investing or believing that you are going to earn a living (or gain income) from trading when there may or may not be a good income source to supplement that trading behavior, that might not work as well if money is needed to draw out of it to be able to pay for living expenses.

There could be ways to set up an income fund that just pays expenses (so takes a bit of capital), and then have other funds that are traded without touching the income fund... So like right now, if a guy wanted to have an income fund of $20k per year, [b=https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy?U2FsdGVkX19pDL0+w8ot4pLkZ3KWZ+eGgl7Tw5eUdp2pysTVcyvTr9+xhPxI/dZTkJvMBRbo+j35iPVTdj619w==]he would likely need to have something like 3.79 BTC in such account in order to be able to draw $20k per year or  $1,666 per month from such account[/b].

There can be ways to make trading sustainable, but frequently there needs to be some way of supporting oneself with a fund that is not put at risk and then figure out ways to build the trading fund separately.  Like you suggest, it might not be a very good quality of life to be trying to build up a trading account.

Of course, if a young person comes up without very many resources and unable to find work, then he might get sucked into more desperate actions, and surely folks who lose their ability to earn might get sucked into trying to trade, too.

Sadly this is also why so many scams of all kinds work. Their desperation and lack of education relating to scammers and their methods pushes them into believing that they have found the next Bitcoin.

I am not saying anything new, even though I am attempting to tailor the situation towards bitcoin.

Investment consultants have talked about sustainable withdrawal for decades, and they tend to use a 4% withdrawal matter, yet after I built my own tool I found that it is likely that bitcoin can sustain a 10% withdrawal rate as long as valuation is based on the 200-WMA.

Perhaps not but I have not really seen this strategy being advocated in Bitcoin or crypto circles. With so many alleged investment and trading gurus around one would expect at least 1 of them to dig up an actually good strategy. 

I have heard some strategies that are similar to my own.. and some folks complain that mine is overly complicated since it focuses on bottom prices (such as the 200-WMA) to valuate holdings and action versus focusing on spot prices.

So surely guys use the spot price and use something like a 4% withdrawal rate, and I was doing something similar until I realized that using the 200-WMA was much more useful, and stock to flow (plan B) likes to use the 200-WMA too... but yeah, I might have come up with my own way of framing of the matter that can resonate, even though I still claim that it is not completely original, since it is a spin off from other  approaches that I have come across over the years.

Of course if we are withdrawing bitcoin based on spot price, then the calculations might end up going all over the place.

Part of the key is getting to a status in which you have enough bitcoin and/or more than enough bitcoin, and so once you get to that status, then bitcoin is likely going to continue to be a great way to live off of your investment, whether bitcoin is the primary source of income or if bitcoin supplements other income sources that a guy might have.

I also see that there is a huge difference between withdrawing based on spot price and the 200-WMA when I click the button in the tool that you linked. I really want to see some data after the fact from someone. Let's say a person who has been following this strategy consistently for 5 or 10 years. It is very nice that the website offers you a historical simulation but still I would like to hear someone's personal story with data.

Further I would like to see a chart that kind of tries to estimate the future, like the depletion rate of your balance even though it would have a big speculative elements since we can't be sure of the 200-WMA values in advance. But it could also have cases like this one, so perhaps a bearish, bullish and conservative estimation of 200-WMA and then simulate BTC balance depletion and total money withdrawal in USD through time. It would be very interesting for me!

Then that means that we largely agree on this point, even if we might express our agreement in different ways, no?

Accordingly we may well agree that:
1) Historically bitcoin has been the best performing asset.
2) There is no evidence that bitcoin is not going to continue to be the best performing asset, so it likely is good to stay invested in bitcoin.
and perhaps 3)  The future is not guaranteed, so even though bitcoin is and has been the best performing asset, there are still uncertainties in the world (and even in bitcoin's future), yet that does not mean we should not invest into bitcoin, but instead the uncertainty might justify that we don't pu all of our eggs in one basket.

We are in agreement indeed, on all three points. On the third one I would like to add that in general I see that argument as deeply flawed. That the future is not guaranteed is not a valid excuse for not investing in Bitcoin because that argument can be used against anything. Why invest in anything at all since the future is not guaranteed? Very weak argument that has been historically used against it but it does not directly apply to Bitcoin. It could perhaps only be added as a caveat or a note when talking about these things.

It is likely that we hedge our future in various ways, and yeah when it comes to investing, we also likely hedge... since we can have base case scenarios and then various back up scenarios, and sometimes some version of our base case scenario plays out and other times we might enter into realms of our hedge.

You are right though that we have to take action, and we might have a lot of mediocre choices, yet surely many of us have concluded that bitcoin is not a mediocre choice, so in the sense that bitcoin has come along, we may well have gotten lucky to have such a choice in front of us, and still some folks still either remain on zero or way underallocated to bitcoin.  There is ONLY so much that any of us can do to convince others to include bitcoin in their path forward, whether their initial allocation is 5% to 25% or some other amount that they deem suitable.. .and for years, staying on zero has seemed to have not been a very good path forward, even though something like 99% of the world's population remain at zero or somewhere close to zero allocation into bitcoin.

I am likely taking you away from your thread since I am largely wanting to talk about bitcoin as an investment, and I give few shits about others wanting to trade or inclined to trade or gamble on either trading bitcoin or playing around with shitcoins, even though they do it, I would rather talk about best practices in regards to investing in bitcoin, and perhaps anyone who has inclinations to either trade bitcoin or gamble or involve themselves in shitcoins, then they should attempt to limit their exposure to such inferior practices to less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin investment.

Well yes we are diverging a bit, but I don't mind. It is much better to engage with posts like this than with some generic responses that I see in threads. I hope to see more content like yours from different users. Anyway you can make a case that any kind of strategy involves some degree of speculation even if it is a very tiny amount, so even this discussion can be argued to be fully on topic.

Some people might start in bitcoin with a very timid approach, yet their timid approach could incentivize them to investigate more, and as they investigate more they become more and more aggressive with their bitcoin investment.. so even if these days I am recommending that guys try to get to 5% to 25% allocation into bitcoin, prior to 2020, I used to recommend that newbies shoot to get to a 1% to 10% allocation into bitcoin.  I upped my recommendation of an initial bitcoin investment target based on changed circumstances in the world, and sure bitcoin has grown since 2020, yet still bitcoin has not seemed to have had grown anywhere near the levels that it could have had grown.. It just takes time for growth to happen, even when world events seem to justify greater and faster growth, yet bitcoin remains a bit of a niche, even though the word bitcoin is better known since 2020 as compared to before 2020.

You gotta trade for a side hustle not main income.
DCA is the only solid way to build your wealth. Trading is to scalp some money from the market and add it to your DCA weight.
Majority of people are losing in trading because majority of people aren't disciplined with their trades.

If they can keep low amount of money for trading and mantain DCA. I'm sure they will be successful easy.

The problem some of us have today is greediness and without greediness I don't think that most of us won't know when invest large and small, for the aspect of DCA, an experience person will invest what it can afford to lose so that when the market goes against expectations it will not really affect the invest...but the problem that affect us that much is greediness, whenever you invest in cryptocurrency what we expect is huge profit and that is applicable to trading, especially someone who has not understand the scenario's of trading very well will think that the best option to invest in trading is to put whatever you have in it, my advice is that invest on what you can afford to lose even in DCA, ensure that you invest on what you can afford to lose, do not because of the nature of the market at the moment and invest above your plans.

Several years ago (it might have had been around 2018 or 2019, after our 2017 price run up), I let a relative know that my holdings had gone up something like 78x and then corrected back down to ONLY around 25x, depending on the then ongoing price fluctuations between upper $3ks and $8k-ish.  My relative's response was a suggestion that I was being too greedy, and I should donate to the church, which I thought was ridiculous, since I had not even put a large amount of my networth (or my investment into bitcoin), yet still even if I did not put large amounts into bitcoin, the size of the holdings ended up growing quite outrageously... which caused me to be perceived as being greedy since I did not give the money away (such as giving to the church).

We have to find our own balances, even though some folks are going to make presumptions about us and/or about the purity of  (or lack thereof) our motivations.

[Stablexcoin]

With a working strategy. If you are careful with low amount in risk but you got no winning strategy, it will get to a point where you will be stocked in losses because you will definitely enter a wrong trade that will drain your capital and get you confused. But with a good strategy, you will understand the waters and the volatility areas. Trading isn't just about using low amount because you are afraid to lose because loses will surely come and then DCA will be difficult when you are not making consistent profit.

There are greedy traders who want to use small capital to achieve large profits. When you trade bitcoin there is possibility of not making profits from it, people do believe that trading is far better than gambling with your funds, in attempt to end the say that trading is like gambling but the truth remains, trading comes with a probability of losing or winning, meanwhile bitcoin investors don't incur any loss even the dip is an opportunity.