AI: the treadmill that never stops!!

[slapper]

Companies want to stay relevant with the new technology, or they will end up like Nokia.

Do these AI servers require that much hardware? Because I thought it was still developed and old hardwares can be used too but if they want to increase the computational power and beat the competitors then they have to go with the most powerful ones. And we also need to accept that this is the new normal and in future we have more complete system like AGI that will be capable of doing more thing effectively at little cost.

Just for the comparison the first ever working computer size around 1800sq.foot and needed 150KW power to operate but with the limitation of around 35 calculations but if we didn't had that one now we won't be using what we all are using so it's not just burning electricity but a way to find more savings in the future.

yes, nobody wants to be the giant that was left behind by the next wave. And you are correct, competition makes these companies always demand the latest and most powerful hardware. That part is natural in tech. In the case of Nokia failure, shareholders and phone users were mostly the victims. In AI, the stakes are significantly larger. These servers are not in laboratories. They are attached to the pensions, to the power systems, to the GDP itself. When the cycle proves to be slower than anticipated, the entire economy is affected not just a single company on stock prices

I agree with you that the initial computers were also wasteful, and turned out to be stepping stones. Perhaps, the same can be said about AI hardware today. But the variance is magnitude and velocity. First computers never used 3-5% of national electricity or compelled utilities to borrow billions within a single decade. And they did not need $320B in a single year to make ends meet. Now the treadmill is moving much faster

[NeuroticFish]

I agree with you that the initial computers were also wasteful, and turned out to be stepping stones. Perhaps, the same can be said about AI hardware today. But the variance is magnitude and velocity. First computers never used 3-5% of national electricity or compelled utilities to borrow billions within a single decade. And they did not need $320B in a single year to make ends meet. Now the treadmill is moving much faster

Keep in mind that - because of the amount of complexity and also because of inflation - the things/technologies/tests are getting increasingly ever more expensive, making "the treadmill move faster".
Also, since the analogy with old computers has already started, consider the "waste" of energy actually an investment in development and research (models getting better, learning more; maybe better chips being also built in the process). And I see it as a good thing that people and companies are willing to pay for this.

I also think that looking at electricity consumption is not the best way to think (remember the days people were pointing at bitcoin mining because of consumption?). I think that obtaining electricity has become easier (of course, consumption rose too) in the past couple of years. And I hope that getting electricity from nuclear fusion will also become reality in the not too far future.

Back to AI: the models are becoming better over time, but for a while that will not matter as costs and consumption because now the companies are already splitting them per targeted audience to keep costs down. With every step of models becoming more efficient, they will probably become more generic before becoming "small" in the similar way the computers have evolved from entire room to today laptops, tablets and cell phones.


PS. Since I consider - especially with the huge changes in the world and businesses in the past 5 years - the stock market an advanced gambling I fail to comprehend, I can't tell whether the pension funds getting into AI is a good or a bad thing. I would like to see more of them also investing into Bitcoin (not Bitcoin companies, since that's still old style stock market), but as long as there's still the 4-years cycle in play, I am not surprised they are afraid.

[WillyAp]

Back to AI: the models are becoming better over time, but for a while that will not matter as costs and consumption because now the companies are already splitting them per targeted audience to keep costs down. With every step of models becoming more efficient, they will probably become more generic before becoming "small" in the similar way the computers have evolved from entire room to today laptops, tablets and cell phones.

out of about 900 million users about 3% pay into some kind of subscription.
The numbers are similar to the dot com bubble.

Now the biggest beneficiarios of a non bubble burst, or the chances are high they survive the bubble bursting, are trying their best sales pitches on the UK government,

[NeuroticFish]

out of about 900 million users about 3% pay into some kind of subscription.

Does this take into account the companies (especially tech companies) paying big bucks to AI providers for "safe access" of their employees to all these goodies?
Because I expect that's the revenue model, else OpenAI/MS and many others would go down so fast, even I would notice.

[STT]

The main difference with the dotcom bubble is the utility, we should have a focus on that and efficiency of the product to improve results for users.    The one thing I do think AI makes a difference is the current inefficiency of usage of existing technology, AI doing radically new tasks is something different & probably harder to achieve.

   Lots of people don't or cant use tools already available for five years, its like having a solid V8 in your car but you only know how to start it in first gear.   If someone can invent a way to unlock potential already waiting, its going to be well used and profitable for all involved.

This dynamic of usability being so important isn't new, I thought the same when Windows was still new.  I don't especially appreciate Microsoft or their founder but the product itself did tilt the world via enabling its users.  All AI has to do is enable people now in a similar way and its gigantic, its off the scale at least in potential.
    Ironically AI as a bubble or a real phenomena, its about the people.

[Synchronice]

I think it's not about AI, but technology creators create this system to make us forced to get rid from old devices, then buy the new one.

It's not necessary to introduce new iPhone every year. Instead, produce one, very high quality smartphone once ever 5 year or so. We receive new iPhone every year and there is literally zero change in the smartphone, the same and same smartphone released every year. It's an internet meme of what iPhone designers do in Photoshop. A few click, resize shape, rotate and your iPhone is already designed. It's funny that some people are getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for 5 minute work. It's as crazy as Xiaomi paying $300000 in rounded logo.

[Alone055]

All these things have been happening for decades, even before AI had entered the space. How do think were big tech firms were doing their operations before AI? Weren't they buying new equipment, upgrading their servers and everything, and using the same amount of energy even before because they need to run supercomputers and very large servers for their customers to have uninterrupted services? So, there is no point in pointing fingers on AI and saying that it is causing problems or making the world a worse place by making companies do extra things.

It's an understandable thing that when new technologies enter the scene, there will be both pros and cons of their usage, if something is created to provide more convenience to the humankind, it will also have its consequences, and we will have to understand that, and we will also have to understand and accept that these things can't be stopped, the world will keep progressing, new technologies will emerge and so will some problems with them, because as i said, there will always be pros and cons.

[Veenie]

What's the difference with cellphone which exist before AI boom?

Someone create a cellphone, but they only give 3x OS update, in fourth year we no longer able to update the OS. Our cellphone is getting slower from time to time and in the next few years our cellphone no longer support the apps we installed before.

I think it's not about AI, but technology creators create this system to make us forced to get rid from old devices, then buy the new one.

That is a sharp point. This is how I feel when my phone becomes slow after a couple of years and the apps become inactive. It is annoying, and, indeed, tech companies make it that way. It keeps the money flowing

Yet, I believe that the AI treadmill is even larger compared to the cellphone cycle. It is only my little personal cost when my phone runs out of life. In the case of AI, servers do not go to "waste" when servers expire every 3-5 years, but the whole economies. It is too big to a level that it already supports U.S. GDP growth. To construct power lines, utilities take billions of loans. Pensions invest in these companies. And when AI hardware gets disposed, the "coerced upgrade" strikes everyone simultaneously, be it retirees or families with more energy bills to pay

Partly, you are correct: the system conditions us to embrace waste and unlimited substitution. But with AI the scale is different. Cellphones are burning our wallets; AI might burn the grid, the pensions, and possibly even even the stability in markets

Thank you! I think the term for it is "planned obsolescence"
The scale of this is now super charged, creating an artificial demand for a product just to supply a solution no one asked for.

The pandora's box is open, there's no closing it now and some of the cost is already subtly slid into the end consumer's electricity bill even though they have no business with it, just because they find themselves in the same town with one of their precious data centers.

[Haunebu]

It's definitely a huge bubble which will blast sometime later inevitably and I hope it won't leave a lasting impact on the global economy. Normies like us paying for everything is a never ending story regardless of whether it's AI or something else.

Thankfully, I am one of those people who feels that the bubble blasting won't happen anytime soon for various reasons.

[dezoel]

I don't think of AI as a bubble that can burst. AI seems to be the future of technology and yes companies are spending billions in building their servers but they are also able to make profits out of it right? They would never spend billions if there was no profit for themselves or their clients. E-waste will be a major crisis in future but still there are few companies who can recycle this e-waste and turn it into something useful so we do not really have to worry about it until and unless we see profits coming out of these AI supporting firms.

Somewhere yes, we might be paying from our pension funds but our money will always be safe because at the end these giants will turn profits out of AI and will return the pension funds so I don't think this is something to worry about.

[summonerrk]

Each day I see individuals praising AI. New models, new data centers, new "revolutions". At first I felt excited too. However, as I started to learnt more closely, I began to grow uncomfortable

The entire system is a running treadmill  Hundreds of billions are being spent by big companies to construct AI servers and yet, these machines are not durable. They become "old" in as short as 3-5 years. The cycle does not end since Nvidia releases new chips with each passing year. In order to keep up with it, they have to continue purchasing again and again

This is not similar to railroads or fiber-optic cables which lasted decades. By the time that these bubbles burst, society was not left without useful networks. Where are we going to be left with these AI hardware. Largely e-waste and large power bills

And these tech stocks are held by some elderly' pension fund. Your savings might too. When this treadmill slow down, it is not only the people of Silicon Valley who lose. Everywhere it is retirees, workers, families. I do not want the future of my family to be tied to the number of servers Amazon or Microsoft are going to purchase next year

Also think about energy. Data centers continue consuming huge amounts of electricity on an annual basis. To build new power lines which are used by AI only, utilities borrow money. When the demand reduces, they are still carrying with that debt and normies may pay the prices. That is us

We're faced with a phenomenon we can only silently accept and try to extract at least some benefit from. No one asks us whether further progress in this direction is necessary or whether it will benefit everyone. Corporate giants are simply developing AI, afraid of being overtaken by their rivals, while jobs are being lost. All this leads to AI development becoming a race. I believe this is not good, because progress is blind and not always a blessing. Sometimes, this can lead to a crisis.

[imthegreat]

Each day I see individuals praising AI. New models, new data centers, new "revolutions". At first I felt excited too. However, as I started to learnt more closely, I began to grow uncomfortable

The entire system is a running treadmill  Hundreds of billions are being spent by big companies to construct AI servers and yet, these machines are not durable. They become "old" in as short as 3-5 years. The cycle does not end since Nvidia releases new chips with each passing year. In order to keep up with it, they have to continue purchasing again and again

This is not similar to railroads or fiber-optic cables which lasted decades. By the time that these bubbles burst, society was not left without useful networks. Where are we going to be left with these AI hardware. Largely e-waste and large power bills

And these tech stocks are held by some elderly' pension fund. Your savings might too. When this treadmill slow down, it is not only the people of Silicon Valley who lose. Everywhere it is retirees, workers, families. I do not want the future of my family to be tied to the number of servers Amazon or Microsoft are going to purchase next year

Also think about energy. Data centers continue consuming huge amounts of electricity on an annual basis. To build new power lines which are used by AI only, utilities borrow money. When the demand reduces, they are still carrying with that debt and normies may pay the prices. That is us

We're faced with a phenomenon we can only silently accept and try to extract at least some benefit from. No one asks us whether further progress in this direction is necessary or whether it will benefit everyone. Corporate giants are simply developing AI, afraid of being overtaken by their rivals, while jobs are being lost. All this leads to AI development becoming a race. I believe this is not good, because progress is blind and not always a blessing. Sometimes, this can lead to a crisis.

There have been plenty of articles for a long time now claiming that AI will trigger the next crisis, which is already in full swing and gaining momentum. Investors are throwing too much money at any project related to AI.
I don't want to say it's like with ICOs, because that's different. With ICOs, money was just swirling around in the crypto space, but now things are much worse, because this topic involves technologies and Nvidia chips that the whole world needs. And in general, all areas where AI has become involved—from programming to design—could be destroyed.

[XOOMBOX]

I don't think of AI as a bubble that can burst. AI seems to be the future of technology and yes companies are spending billions in building their servers but they are also able to make profits out of it right? They would never spend billions if there was no profit for themselves or their clients. E-waste will be a major crisis in future but still there are few companies who can recycle this e-waste and turn it into something useful so we do not really have to worry about it until and unless we see profits coming out of these AI supporting firms.

Somewhere yes, we might be paying from our pension funds but our money will always be safe because at the end these giants will turn profits out of AI and will return the pension funds so I don't think this is something to worry about.

AI technologies is now at the middle point of a technological revolution where people are not only dreaming about AI but also looking for ways to make real money from this AI technology. However, I think it is not that simple because big companies are making profits now but behind this profit there is also a huge energy consumption, environmental impact and data dependency risk they have. And you are right about e-waste recycling but that process is still very limited. And regarding pension funds, yes, it may seem safe at the moment but if the market balance is shaken then the impact will fall on all of us. So, for my opinion I think that instead of blindly trusting about AI, there should be an open discussion about it where conscious investment and the sustainability of the technology are considered.

[doomloop]

It's definitely a huge bubble which will blast sometime later inevitably and I hope it won't leave a lasting impact on the global economy. Normies like us paying for everything is a never ending story regardless of whether it's AI or something else.

Thankfully, I am one of those people who feels that the bubble blasting won't happen anytime soon for various reasons.

AI revolution has just began and it might take decades for this bubble to burst. We are safe as of now and we can continue enjoying the perks. Every single thing which costs billions in development has potential to impact the global economy. Not only one single country but all countries will join the race because they do not want to feel left out and to join this race, they will start investing billions and billions so they can cope up with their competitor. I hope these companies have a solid blueprint of what they actually are doing.

I feel the money invested into AI will be useful somehow because AI seems to decrease human work hence maximizing profits and reducing expenses. The same amount of money which was supposed to be utilized for paying the employees is used to build the servers which in long term will pay for itself.

[Hispo]

I have seen many people on the internet claiming this Artificial intelligence trend is a bubble and it is going to burst when people do not get so interested in this technology and move onto the next trend, but I am not sure if this is something which is going to be replaced or taken the spot off, after all AI has just started and there is a lot of potential for it to take the jobs and the production from people, in five years AI will continue to be in the mouths of people and also it is going to be the central debate, as companies start to develop their humanoid robots to join labor force.

It is true this is a technology which uses a lot of resources, like electricity and water, but if there is something to learn from human technology is that it becomes more efficient as time passes by, in the future Ai will be more affordable for both companies and users alike.