The gold thread

[_act_]

And yes, the country that is accumulating gold at the fastest rate is China, which is simultaneously reducing its positions in US bonds.

Not only China. I do not think China is the first but it is one of the countries that is actively buying gold. Poland, Turkey, India, Azerbaijan and China were among the leading buyers last year according to the news I read on BBC when gold surpassed $4000 recently. Also the Middle East Asian countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar bought huge amount of gold since 2022.

[leonair]

And yes, the country that is accumulating gold at the fastest rate is China, which is simultaneously reducing its positions in US bonds.

Not only China. I do not think China is the first but it is one of the countries that is actively buying gold. Poland, Turkey, India, Azerbaijan and China were among the leading buyers last year according to the news I read on BBC when gold surpassed $4000 recently. Also the Middle East Asian countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar bought huge amount of gold since 2022.

All countries are keeping a separate eye on gold and are actively buying gold due to which the price of gold is increasing very rapidly in the stock market and accordingly new records are being set in the global market for gold. I am really surprised to see the speed of increase in gold price. Every two days I get news that the price of gold is increasing. Especially in the last two months, the price of gold has increased a lot which had not increased even in the entire year before. The rapid rise in gold prices seems positive in some ways and negative in others.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Decreasing value, at a fast pace, which partly explains why most assets keep going up in nominal terms.

Inflation, exactly--most people don't understand that most assets priced in terms of fiat will keep going up in price over time, all things being equal.  That isn't true for everything, but I know exactly what you're saying and was going to mention that myself (I swear).

Bitcoin might be one of those assets that doesn't just keep going up, however.  It's driven by supply and demand and even the best analyst wouldn't be able to tell you what 1BTC ought to be worth right now, a week, or a year from now because it's not like there's an underlying business to analyze as in the stock market.  It's all supply and demand, and the current and future supply aren't really up for debate, trying to predict the price of bitcoin at any point in the future is guessing at what the demand for it is going to be.  Does that make sense?

For some people, it might just be too volatile.  That isn't something to criticize, because different people have different tolerances for risk.  If I'm a 60-year old person, do you think I'd want to shift my retirement money into something like bitcoin?  You might have already thought about that at some point, but if not, I'd like to know what your opinion is after you have.

I don't quite understand why you're asking me that in a thread about gold. I'm not going to give financial advice for retirement, but I can tell you what I have: a mix of Bitcoin, gold, investment funds, retirement accounts, and stocks.

That was a rhetorical question.  I wasn't asking you for advice on retirement but a general question about what a person closer to retirement than you are would probably think of bitcoin as an investment.  And I'm not talking about someone who's wealthy and can afford to lose their savings.

[beveryu778]

And yes, the country that is accumulating gold at the fastest rate is China, which is simultaneously reducing its positions in US bonds.

Not only China. I do not think China is the first but it is one of the countries that is actively buying gold. Poland, Turkey, India, Azerbaijan and China were among the leading buyers last year according to the news I read on BBC when gold surpassed $4000 recently. Also the Middle East Asian countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar bought huge amount of gold since 2022.

All countries are keeping a separate eye on gold and are actively buying gold due to which the price of gold is increasing very rapidly in the stock market and accordingly new records are being set in the global market for gold. I am really surprised to see the speed of increase in gold price. Every two days I get news that the price of gold is increasing. Especially in the last two months, the price of gold has increased a lot which had not increased even in the entire year before. The rapid rise in gold prices seems positive in some ways and negative in others.

Even if the price of gold increases rapidly, its price will never decrease rapidly. There has never been a major price crash in the history of gold. Now the demand for gold in the market is very high and different countries are buying a lot of gold, due to which the price of gold is increasing rapidly. Meanwhile, the bearishness of the crypto market will start very quickly, due to which many people are withdrawing their investments from crypto. In this way, the investment pressure on gold is increasing in various ways and there is a lot of demand, the price of gold is gradually increasing. Yes, I also agree that the price is mainly raised through the stock market and the gold association of each country sets a price for the physical market. However, I cannot see any negative signal to increase the price of gold.

[PostQuantumBTC]

There has never been a major price crash in the history of gold.

The two that I remember were: the first one was in 2011 to 2015 when gold fell from $1850 to $1060. The second one was between 2021 and 2022 when gold fell from $2080 to almost $1600. The central banks increased the gold they are buying in 2022, the price increased further. Trump started trade war, the price increased further. The United States government closed down, the price increased further.

[Ambatman]

I've been thinking about starting this thread for a while, partly because of the rivalry between gold and Bitcoin as a store of value, and specifically this year because of the rise in gold, which has outperformed Bitcoin in terms of profitability.

To be sincere, I don't really see this as a good sign
Due to skirmishes in the past years, I think people are expecting a bigger crisis
Hence why they are rushing on Gold.
Economic war
Geopolitical War
There might be reshuffling of powers. What's a better safe bet than Gold.

So are the dollar bills in my wallet and anything else that's expected to hold at least some value in the future.

Imo dollar bills don't really meet the criteria of being store of value
Especially during crisis.
Store of value means it doesn't loss much purchasing power in the future.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Inflation, exactly--most people don't understand that most assets priced in terms of fiat will keep going up in price over time, all things being equal.  That isn't true for everything, but I know exactly what you're saying and was going to mention that myself (I swear).

Bitcoin might be one of those assets that doesn't just keep going up, however.  It's driven by supply and demand and even the best analyst wouldn't be able to tell you what 1BTC ought to be worth right now, a week, or a year from now because it's not like there's an underlying business to analyze as in the stock market.  It's all supply and demand, and the current and future supply aren't really up for debate, trying to predict the price of bitcoin at any point in the future is guessing at what the demand for it is going to be.  Does that make sense?

It makes sense but Bitcoin is the only asset with a fixed production rate and a total limit on its suppy, which leads me and many others to believe that the price can only go up in the long term.

That was a rhetorical question.  I wasn't asking you for advice on retirement but a general question about what a person closer to retirement than you are would probably think of bitcoin as an investment.  And I'm not talking about someone who's wealthy and can afford to lose their savings.

Ok, I see. I think that someone who is close to retirement and does not have a big stash will be averse to Bitcoin because of its volatility. If you have just enough for retirement, you're not going to risk seeing a 70% drop in one year.. However, if they retire today and expect to live for another 20 years, it is not crazy to invest 5 or 10% of their total assets.

There has never been a major price crash in the history of gold.

The two that I remember were: the first one was in 2011 to 2015 when gold fell from $1850 to $1060. The second one was between 2021 and 2022 when gold fell from $2080 to almost $1600. The central banks increased the gold they are buying in 2022, the price increased further. Trump started trade war, the price increased further. The United States government closed down, the price increased further.

There have been more. Our friend could have done a simple search before making that claim.

Gold & Silver Crashes in History: Severity, Duration, and Recoveries

[d5000]

I think the current situation with inflation and fear about wars is only partially explaining the gold rally. The inflation peak was in 2022/23, and until now the expectations of inflation exploding again in 2025 due to Trump's tariff policy have materialized only to a small extent (inflation reduction in the US is stuck but CPI hasn't really increased significantly).

I would still not say there's peace in the Middle East now, but at least the situation cooled down a bit. So this is another factor that "normally" should also cool down the gold rally, at least from a "fundamental" perspective.

So my take is that these both reasons can explain the start of the rally in early 2025. But then it has become a self-sustaining rally, i.e. people saw the price going up and bought. So I second the idea that it has become a bubble, and a crash or at least a significant correction may be quite close. No idea if it before reaches $5000 or $6000 though, late rally euphoria can be insane.

That Bitcoin hasn't capitalized from the same fears in the same way than gold is a sign that its risk profile is still perceived by the markets closer to a stock than to gold. This may change, but I wouldn't like to predict when. As I wrote elsewhere though, my own guess is that this can happen once the Bitcoin bear markets become less pronounced (not more than 50% since the previous ATH, which is comparable to gold's crashes).

[She shining]

I would still not say there's peace in the Middle East now, but at least the situation cooled down a bit. So this is another factor that "normally" should also cool down the gold rally, at least from a "fundamental" perspective.

it's More like a calm before. The storm. Us still remains the dominant country in majority eyes and we can tell from the action of the president that the coming months wouldn't be favorable to government bond or the stock market. The

[AirtelBuzz]

The prices of all cryptocurrencies, starting with Bitcoin, are in a slump in the market but the price of gold is now making history by increasing because we saw that gold touched a market cap of $30.238 Trillion for the first time. It really is huge. In fact it appears that tensions are increasing unplannedly between the United States and China, meaning that these two countries are now engaged in a tariff war, which is resulting in an increase in gold acquisitions, on the other hand, the volume of purchases of these assets has increased due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this month. I would say that due to the recent tariffs on China in various areas, many may be entering the gold market now instead of volatile assets like Bitcoin.

[ancafe]

On the other hand, with the rise in gold prices this year, I am seeing more and more talk about gold everywhere. Metaphorically speaking, and following the phrase attributed to Rockefeller, I have even heard shoe shiners talking about buying gold. Or people thinking about taking out loans to buy it. This may indicate overheating, a bubble that should burst at some point and reverse the explosive growth that gold is experiencing this year.

For my part, I have a couple of gold pieces purely for diversification. I don't have more because I believe that in the future Bitcoin will take over much of the current gold market.

I've read some online news or watched some videos, and most people start talking about gold after it reaches its peak price. I also thought a bubble bursting would cause panic, even though gold tends to be stable and not as volatile as bitcoin. A few days ago, my older sister called me and asked me to accompany him to sell gold. On the way home, she said, "If only we had bought more gold earlier, we might be rich now." It just came out of my mouth, "If only we had bought a lot of bitcoin earlier, we might be billionaires today."

I also have some gold stored by my wife, and most women prefer gold to bitcoin. I believe that in the future, bitcoin will dominate the majority of the current gold market. The growth is already evident, as bitcoin's capitalization continues to grow, and its increasingly widespread adoption will position it as a potential asset for the future.

[Bitcoin_people]

Yes, we can see that the price of gold has been increasing a lot compared to Bitcoin for the past few days. Moreover, the price of gold in the world market has reached a very high position, I constantly watch the news and there I can see that the price of gold is continuously increasing. Especially in my country, it is much higher than in other countries. The price of gold in our country is being sold at a high price, no one imagined that the price of gold would suddenly increase so much. To be honest, I did not expect the price of gold to increase so quickly, basically I think most people are investing their money in gold. Maybe people want to invest their money in gold with their money due to the fear of inflation, which is why the price of gold is increasing rapidly in the world market. Moreover, I have seen some predictions where they said that there is a possibility of the price of gold increasing further in 2026, I do not know how true this is, but maybe the price of gold will increase further.
I see that the price of 1 kg of gold is showing $140k in mid-October.
And where the price of Bitcoin touched $126k in October.

[NewRanger]

I'm not surprised that seeing how gold is rising because recent activities in global politics suggest that there will be a shift from the US dollar. The rivalry between the west and the east is shifting things in a bipolar order and no one wants to leave anything to chance hence institutions are looking for a safe haven of which gold will be the greatest beneficiary because the old money and traditional businesses are yet to fully come to terms with Bitcoin. Nevertheless, Bitcoin will catch up but it will take some time and we should be patient with the process to see Bitcoin gain that level of trust.

Gold's movement is indeed extraordinary at the moment, and it also appears to have temporarily fallen some time ago, coinciding with the BTC correction. Many newly wealthy people are currently able to maintain their holdings and haven't sold their gold in a hurry until today and what Adaseb said is also interesting. While this increase is still reasonable considering the current situation, it also signals a specific, negative sign that if sentiment changes, those with large supplies will take quick profits. Nevertheless, I still believe in BTC's performance, and even if gold does experience a temporary sell-off, more or less money will flow into BTC as well, and Bitcoin will catch up, just as you said.

[bettercrypto]

Honestly, I don't hold any physical Gold, but I do have Gold digitally, which I use for trading activity through spot, and I'm able to save up somewhat,
which is a good thing I'm doing right now.

But as for whether it's a good time to buy Gold right now, in my personal opinion, I think I would still wait for a little confirmation because I believe it will go down further for now.
This is just my assumption. However, Bitcoin is also a good opportunity right now to take advantage of and buy it, provided we have extra money for it.

[khiholangkang]

What could be the cause of this?

Dedollarisation!

As the world spirals down into chaos and as US regime continues starting new wars of different types, the world continues dumping the dollar. They instead start accumulating gold to beef up their economy, specially if the next World War begins they'll need to back their fiat with anything they can.
This is why the central banks have been on a crazy gold buying spree over the past 3 years.

Each time the rogue regime in Washington does something nasty, the gold price jumps. Recently they intensified the economic war with China and China retaliated hard, therefore gold jumped another $200-$300.
Next they are eying Venezuela and could invade this oil rich country to steal its natural resources. We could then see gold jump another level of two.

Broadly speaking, there are two factors that can be observed: global geopolitics are heating up and the world has come to understand that the dollar does not have real and stable value. Global geopolitics have a greater influence, including the recent trade war between Trump and Jinping, as well as other tensions that have arisen with the military in its implementation, the heating up of tensions between the West and the East, NATO-Russia, and so on. The current political situation is indeed at a state of alert, Therefore, we will be drawn back to a time when gold was still valuable in the eyes of the world and in the eyes of everyone, both old and young, wherever they were. Gold will be accepted, unlike fiat or other currencies. Therefore, in anticipation of continuing global political tensions, several banks and countries that understand this situation are buying gold as their reserves and discarding the dollar. This is a form of anticipation, because the dollar or other currencies could become worthless tomorrow if America collapses and experiences hyperinflation, and also because of America's large debt, which will become a bubble that could burst at any time and wreak havoc on the American economy.

If America continues to intervene in small countries in this way, then the price of gold will definitely increase again, because this will cause anxiety for other countries, who are aware that it is possible that their country will be exploited next when Venezuela runs out of oil and this will make other countries join certain allies/blocs so as not to be touched by the US, to save themselves.

I personally am slowly accumulating gold, although not much I think it is better to have a little than nothing.

[fuguebtc]

Honestly Gold going up this much, in such a short order is worry-some. Why is everyone buying Gold all of a sudden? Its not a good sign.

Means the smart money is buying Gold because they see inflation going higher or they see some catastrophic event. Everything is over-leveraged and over-priced these days. Look at all those stocks with 500 PE ratios. Look at all these useless meme tokens worth billions. Eventually it will break but nobody knows when.

The price of gold in the global market has been increasing rapidly recently and a big FOMO has now been created in the gold market. The price of gold has never increased at such a fast pace in its history. But this year, gold is growing as fast as crypto. However, gold is a strong metal which is also kept as a country's reserve. And its price remains at a stable level and increases gradually. But such a sudden rapid increase is not a positive sign. At any time, the price of gold can fall which will shake the whole world. People consider investing in gold as the safest investment but what is happening with gold suddenly can break this confidence of people. I am a little scared about this.

Many people see the sharp rise in gold prices and seem afraid, and think that the gold bubble will soon burst but in my opinion that will not happen. Because the surge in demand for gold is due to growing geopolitical uncertainty globally, not speculation like what is happening in the crypto market. So it is very unlikely that gold prices will suddenly drop like crypto assets.

Instead of thinking that the sudden increase in gold prices is not a positive sign and fearing that gold will be sold off will affect gold investors. We should have a financial plan because such an unusual increase in gold prices usually signals something bad is about to happen to our economy.

Contrary to you, I even believe that gold will soon reach $5k to $5k2 and will soon reach $10k if geopolitical instability increases in the coming years.

[Coyster]

But as for whether it's a good time to buy Gold right now, in my personal opinion, I think I would still wait for a little confirmation because I believe it will go down further for now.

If you want to get in and make returns before the rally is over, then the best time to buy gold was yesterday and the next best time is now. Because there is going to be a price crash or correction sooner or later. But if you are looking at hodling whatever you buy for a very long time, then it is not a bad idea to wait out the rally and buy when the price corrects, so you do not purchase on a high.

That Bitcoin hasn't capitalized from the same fears in the same way than gold is a sign that its risk profile is still perceived by the markets closer to a stock than to gold.

Yes, i believe BTC is a store of value, but not necessarily a safe haven asset yet. Its volatility has to reduce before we can really call it that. Most of my funds are in bitcoin, but that's because i really believe in its potential, but with the geopolitical tension around the world, most investors would choose precious metals over crypto.

[Free Market Capitalist]

That Bitcoin hasn't capitalized from the same fears in the same way than gold is a sign that its risk profile is still perceived by the markets closer to a stock than to gold.

Yes, i believe BTC is a store of value, but not necessarily a safe haven asset yet. Its volatility has to reduce before we can really call it that. Most of my funds are in bitcoin, but that's because i really believe in its potential, but with the geopolitical tension around the world, most investors would choose precious metals over crypto.

I agree with this, but I would add that it is not usually considered a safe haven but specifically in the sort term, and we can see this in the market. In the long term, and to combat currency devaluation, it has proven to be the best option. I think it will be a matter of time, and perhaps not much time, as d5000 points out, before Bitcoin is accepted as a safe haven.

[BALIK]

But as for whether it's a good time to buy Gold right now, in my personal opinion, I think I would still wait for a little confirmation because I believe it will go down further for now.
This is just my assumption. However, Bitcoin is also a good opportunity right now to take advantage of and buy it, provided we have extra money for it.

Similar to bitcoin, gold is an asset that appreciates in value over time. So if you don't mind buying bitcoin now regardless of the price because you believe its price will increase in the long term despite the short term volatility. You can do the same with gold.
You fear its price will suddenly drop and think this is not the right time to buy, simply because you have no interest in it, nothing more.

Honestly, if we are being fair and objective, with the current geopolitical uncertainty, buying gold is safer than buying bitcoin right now. But most of us are bitcoin investors so we disagree with that because of the love we have for bitcoin.

[ultrloa]

That Bitcoin hasn't capitalized from the same fears in the same way than gold is a sign that its risk profile is still perceived by the markets closer to a stock than to gold.

Yes, i believe BTC is a store of value, but not necessarily a safe haven asset yet. Its volatility has to reduce before we can really call it that. Most of my funds are in bitcoin, but that's because i really believe in its potential, but with the geopolitical tension around the world, most investors would choose precious metals over crypto.

I agree with this, but I would add that it is not usually considered a safe haven but specifically in the sort term, and we can see this in the market. In the long term, and to combat currency devaluation, it has proven to be the best option. I think it will be a matter of time, and perhaps not much time, as d5000 points out, before Bitcoin is accepted as a safe haven.

If they want to preserve their capital for short term I guess BTC is not good to be their safe haven due to its price swings. We have seen the movement of Bitcoin for past few days and provably this could make some people to lose their money.

It can be a safe haven if the economy of their country is weak also during bank instability.

There's still many debate about this and some might agree that Bitcoin is good to be their safe haven and some may not.

Gold is undeniably in that state due to its store value and dominance, but I have strong confidence that Bitcoin would also reach in that status. Given its limited supply and rapidly growing adoption.