About 20% of all Bitcoin are owned by dead people or are unrecoverable.

[Nothingtodo]

The exact figure of dead Bitcoin is 20%, how do I know if it is correct? However, it could be more or less than that. I don't know the exact ratio, you and I, it's all based on assumptions. The supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, or 1.1 million Satoshis. If you assume that wallets with dead wallets are dead, then the statistics could be more than twenty percent. However, as the world becomes more familiar with Bitcoin and its popularity spreads among people, the price of Bitcoin will increase. However, dead wallets cannot be directly said to be dead because they can wake up at any time.

[Btcdeybodi]

More than 93% of the 21 million bitcoins total supply has already been mined which means if we are to go by the statistics you presented, it will be about 73% bitcoins that are circulation and let us assume that people who lost access to their wallet by losing their seed and passphrases are among the 20%, it could be true, maybe not but if it true that means that they will be included with Satoshi's bitcoins that may not be touched forever. However, since some wallets are just dormant and maybe reactivated in the future, we can't just assume that those wallets belongs to dead people.

[Pumpsta]

You’ve got a blockchain where pseudonymity is the norm. Yes there are a few wallets known to belong to dead people or to specific people/companies (eg Binance wallets) but there’s no way any of us can know how much of it is dead/stagnant Bitcoin. And any prediction is as precise as these other threads where some people are betting on Satoshi’s return.

[DiMarxist]

More than 93% of the 21 million bitcoins total supply has already been mined which means if we are to go by the statistics you presented, it will be about 73% bitcoins that are circulation and let us assume that people who lost access to their wallet by losing their seed and passphrases are among the 20%, it could be true, maybe not but if it true that means that they will be included with Satoshi's bitcoins that may not be touched forever. However, since some wallets are just dormant and maybe reactivated in the future, we can't just assume that those wallets belongs to dead people.

It’s actually true that a large portion of Bitcoin has already been mined, and while some of it is definitely lost forever, it’s hard to say exactly how much. Many wallets might actually be inactive for now, but maybe the owners are waiting for the right time to move their coins, or maybe they forgot about them. And as for Satoshi bitcoins, those are most likely never going to be touched, which does make the circulating supply even smaller. But just like you said, we can’t assume every dormant wallet is gone for good. Some could still come back to life oneday.

[Ishicryptic]

More than 93% of the 21 million bitcoins total supply has already been mined which means if we are to go by the statistics you presented, it will be about 73% bitcoins that are circulation and let us assume that people who lost access to their wallet by losing their seed and passphrases are among the 20%, it could be true, maybe not but if it true that means that they will be included with Satoshi's bitcoins that may not be touched forever. However, since some wallets are just dormant and maybe reactivated in the future, we can't just assume that those wallets belongs to dead people.

I don't think that there can be an accurate data to determine how many Bitcoin that are actually lost forever so we shouldn't assume without facts about any amount and if they belonged to the living or dead people. Like the Satoshi stash there are people who haven't seen a good reason to move their Bitcoin and we cannot assume that their Bitcoin are lost or stolen. Bitcoin is decentralized if it's held through none custodial wallets and we shouldn't be surprised if a dormant Bitcoin wallet comes to life and the coins inside were moved. Despite the amount of Bitcoin that will be lost forever and becomes donation to the network I hope that the remaining amount in circulation will keep it going strong m

[Fiatless]

This is just an estimate because nobody can ascertain the accurate figure. There used to be occasional reports of perceived lost coins being moved to an exchange or another wallet. Such threads are also common in this forum. Some of these coins might still be under the control of their owners. However, I think many coins have been lost since some early owners lost their coins, as they never knew the coin would go this far.

[Renampun]

Bitcoin is not a token, it's a coin, you need to distinguish between coins and tokens. and regarding what you said, we simply don't know the exact amount of lost Bitcoin, what you heard might just be an estimate or speculation from people, because there's no definitive data about the total amount of lost coins, what people are doing is simply estimating that a certain number of wallets haven't moved for several years, even though those wallets could simply be holding Bitcoin long-term. but lost coins do effectively reduce the amount of Bitcoin available in the market, and that makes Bitcoin even more valuable.

[sana54210]

Not might be, but it is surely in accurate, and we only don't know how in acurate it is.

Don't feel confused, I say it is certainly in accurate because on chain transactions, whale alerts as well as media shown us many times that very old bitcoins were moved while those coins considered as lost bitcoins. It's enough evidence for inaccuracy of any figure on lost bitcoins, it's inaccurate forever as you can not control actions of the others so they can have access to their coins, just have no need to move those coins even in many years.

Yes, we have no idea how many people exactly are dead, that is the "good" thing about bitcoin because we do not know who owns which wallet. Most famously, bitcoin itself was created by satoshi and god knows how much he has, we know "some" of his bitcoins but not all, there isn't like a single wallet address with all his money that we can check. Some say he has 1 million bitcoins, some say it's more logical to assume it would be near half a million of them. We do not know even him, so it's impossible to know others as well.

So it is not going to be a big deal, we should be considering this as irregular data at best. Obviously, one thing we know, the number will not go down, it will go up, we will have more and more people dead and irrecoverable addresses will grow.

[Stalker22]

~
I would like to know if folks here think this statistics is actually correct and pros and cons if true

Okay, so it really boils down to how these numbers are figured out.  It is a common, widely quoted estimate that around 3.7 to 4 million BTC are gone for good.  That number usually comes from companies like Chainalysis or other researchers, who keep an eye on wallets that havent been touched since Bitcoin was just starting out.  But the thing is, you cant really know if a private key is lost/destroyed or not; all you can tell is that the coins havent moved for a long time.  So, just because they are sitting there doesnt mean they are actually out of the picture for good.

[batang_bitcoin]

Yes, just think of them that they're all permanently burn and they have lessened the total supply of Bitcoin and even in the circulation in the economy. And that makes it more scarce as satoshi said, it will be treated as a donation to the community as it preserves wealth and value of it. Satoshi did initiated it and those who have bitcoin that either forgotten or no longer with us, they have served it with the same purpose. It will continue to grow the number of bitcoins that are gone forever which is in favor of the ones that are left here.

[irhact]

While it sound tragic, I think it is actually bullish for Bitcoin’s price or maybe not, not really sure!!!. But what I think is that those coins acts like a permanent burn, thus helps increase scarcity and making btc even more valuable.

I would like to know if folks here think this statistics is actually correct and pros and cons if true

This also means those coins will never be in used and that means nobody will be able to spend those coins in buying things or paying for services and that isn't good. Bitcoin isn't all about scarcity but about adoption and we need every Bitcoin to be available for spending to achieve full adoption. People are getting carried away about hodling Bitcoin and and not spending it and I think that's a weird mindset. Bitcoin should be spend more and this will create more awareness about Bitcoin instead of most people just holding Bitcoin without it doing anything for years in our wallets. I think the statistics isn't true but what the statistics is trying to prove isn't a lie that alot of Bitcoin will never be spend.

[Katrinewilliams]

Few bitcoin owners are dead no doubt,
But many are effectively lost and some got trapped in wallets with unrecoverable passkeys.
This artificial scarcity exacerbated by neglectful owners who dismissed bitcoin potential, fuels long time price stability.
Millions of coins that are being abandoned in blockchain graveyards, reducing circulating supply and amplifying the asset deflationary nature
The irony: what was once an oversight e.g(“I will get back to it later “) now shapes bitcoin economy future.

[tread93]

You should drop a link to where that stamen were made from that other forum or quote the place. Let's check if there was the actual data used to draw that conclusion. 

Many just conclude that some wallets which have not moved their coins since their first transaction have either lost access to them or they are no more not until some wallets which have been dormant for more than a decade recently wake up and move millions of dollars worth of bitcoin. 

I don't consider any bitcoin entirely lost unless they are sent to a burn address where there is no private key to access them.

You know im sure that we will see some crazy stories pop up in the future with treasure hunts and everything to find the long lost keys of so and so. There will be movies about it and stuff , because I agree one day someone could find those keys somehow even if they are dead even though the odds do seem slim

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Saw this on a reply to a thread on another forum, I don't know how true it is, and I wasn't sure the exact feeling or reaction I should have towards it, but it made me wonder how dangerously 'immutable and self-custodian' btc is.

These coins are probably locked in wallets whose keys are forgotten, destroyed, or owned by people who have passed away. That’s about 3.7 to 4 million BTC, even higher than the amount in Satoshi's wallet. This definitely impacts on the circulating supply of btc and reducing it far below the 21 million hard cap.

While it sound tragic, I think it is actually bullish for Bitcoin’s price or maybe not, not really sure!!!. But what I think is that those coins acts like a permanent burn, thus helps increase scarcity and making btc even more valuable.

I would like to know if folks here think this statistics is actually correct and pros and cons if true

Well, for me, I think your stats are correct but this does not mean we should actually be comfortable with the fact that there are dead people whose stash of bitcoin remain on the blockchain while their families may not even know that their dead son or daughter, father or mother, sibling, relative has a number of bitcoin stashed online and it's worth millions of dollars (probably), while they (the family of the dead) are there in the real world probably struggling with poverty..

This is one fear I've always had about crypto in general and not just bitcoin, I don't want to hustle of this finish, hold a number of bitcoins which my family isn't aware of, and neither do they have the keys to the wallet, then one day, something happens to me unexpectedly which lead to my passing on, maybe an accident or simply sleeping and not waking up, then all the bitcoins I've struggled to accumulate will remain online forever with absolutely no means of family getting access to it, this is absolutely heartbreaking and it's another reminder for us all to think about things like this and plan accordingly..

[Lida93]

....
For example I myself have some small amount of coins I've acquired back in 2014 (11 years ago) that I have not touched to this day and have no plans to do so. These speculators count them as "lost" and count me as "dead"

So by speculative you and other Satoshi era bitcoin holders with untouched wallets are dead . And so the only time it would be confirmed untrue that such coins categorised as coins of people who are dead as a result of their wallet remaining untouched is when the coins get moved?! Hmmm I see now.

With all that said, your conclusion is correct though. Any coins lost is contributing to the scarcity of bitcoin, which makes the rest that much more valuable.

This brings in mind the topic of quantum computers speculated to be built with a powerful tech that it can brute force into bitcoin wallets. Besides what I was thinking that it could serve as a threat to bitcoin holders being vulnerable of losing their coins with the existence of such tool assuming this was feasible. But on the other hand I want to know, if the machine being put into good use in recovery of lost bitcoins, wouldn't it help slowdown  that bitcoin scarcity we're looking forward in future?

Because for me, I think it's better we have access to all 21 millions bitcoin because even as that there's still going to be a scarcity in the distant future considering the total world population to the total cap supply of bitcoin.

[Mahiyammahi]

These coins are probably locked in wallets whose keys are forgotten, destroyed, or owned by people who have passed away. That’s about 3.7 to 4 million BTC, even higher than the amount in Satoshi's wallet. This definitely impacts on the circulating supply of btc and reducing it far below the 21 million hard cap.

Yeah it's sad to learn that a huge amount of bitcoin has been lost. It's cause of earlier stage mining bitcoin was easy , lot's of people started mining for fun, maybe one or two day or couple of week mined bitcoin and gets busy with life. Didn't checked anymore , those are the bitcoin lost. They forgot or their device got banned. If you go through our forum technical section you would probably found bunch of thred/topic with title that they lost password help for recover. Some found lost bitcoin.dat file on their father's/relatives old computer.

It's teaches us how important it is to manage your wallet security properly. You would never know even a penny could make you millionaire.

[BlackHatCoiner]

A couple of things regarding this "concern":

• We have no clue how many people self-custody bitcoin, and thus, absolutely no idea how many of them are dead.
• Even if we did know how many people own bitcoin, there's still no reputable estimation on how many bitcoin they own.
• Even if 90% of the supply was unrecoverable, it'd change nothing about the underlying economics and its functionality as peer-to-peer cash.

So don't worry.

[Localhostspeed]

The exact figure of dead Bitcoin is 20%, how do I know if it is correct? However, it could be more or less than that. I don't know the exact ratio, you and I, it's all based on assumptions. The supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, or 1.1 million Satoshis. If you assume that wallets with dead wallets are dead, then the statistics could be more than twenty percent. However, as the world becomes more familiar with Bitcoin and its popularity spreads among people, the price of Bitcoin will increase. However, dead wallets cannot be directly said to be dead because they can wake up at any time.

People just make assumptions base on what they think, they didn't even make an attempt to make it related with maybe utxo that has not been spent in many years, they just assumed that 20% are unspend able, that's billions of dollars that I refused to believe. The owners of those coins will be laughing in one side by the time they are ready to sell their coins, it doesn't make sense to assume as market speculation. Some coins in the last 14 years are been moved recently.

What if the people they thought are dead are not dead, maybe the people they have behind are holding the coins base on the promise the onwer said to them. What if it's their will to leave the coin for some years until a particular time is reach. You never can tell because how old is even Bitcoin that we are making different speculations over something that is just 15 years old, that's a short time compared to the likes of Gold and steal.

[AsiaHODL]

While it sound tragic, I think it is actually bullish for Bitcoin’s price or maybe not, not really sure!!!. But what I think is that those coins acts like a permanent burn, thus helps increase scarcity and making btc even more valuable.

I would like to know if folks here think this statistics is actually correct and pros and cons if true

This also means those coins will never be in used and that means nobody will be able to spend those coins in buying things or paying for services and that isn't good. Bitcoin isn't all about scarcity but about adoption and we need every Bitcoin to be available for spending to achieve full adoption. People are getting carried away about hodling Bitcoin and and not spending it and I think that's a weird mindset. Bitcoin should be spend more and this will create more awareness about Bitcoin instead of most people just holding Bitcoin without it doing anything for years in our wallets. I think the statistics isn't true but what the statistics is trying to prove isn't a lie that alot of Bitcoin will never be spend.

Understand the pizza example. Makes no difference what BTC is no longer usable. The remaining accessible amount continues to serve the exact same purpose. And indeed, any demand for BTC will be reflected in an even higher price, due to an absence of available sellers.

By the way, Michael Saylor has said he will, when he dies, not pass on the keys to his privately held BTC, thus essentially donating value to every other existing holder.

[LDL]

Here is an estimated allocation for a total supply of 21 million Bitcoins, with 17.6% of Bitcoins being lost forever. Now the question is, if Satoshi is alive, his Bitcoins will have to be kept separately, but if he is dead, his Bitcoins will be directly added to the lost Bitcoins. If the total Bitcoin in Satoshi's wallet is 5.2% and all the Bitcoins lost combined are 17.6%, then the loss becomes approximately 22.8%. So the total remaining Bitcoin is 87.2% of the total supply, meaning that excluding the lost Bitcoins, the total supply of Bitcoins stands at 18.312 million.

https://x.com/saylordocs/status/1980543577320222986?t=2Ls5--czHGfkefvK4r9sVg&s=19