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Author Topic: AI Stocks now 44% of S&P 500 (x12 of bitcoin marketcap)  (Read 40 times)
tsaroz (OP)
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Today at 01:32:55 AM
 #1

AI related companies now make up about 44% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization Valuations for many are extremely high with median forward P/E ratios near 31x, similar to dotcom bubble levels. The total valuation is near $2.5 Trillion for the 38 AI related companies most of it comes from debt. 12 times more than bitcoin and over 7 times the price of all cryptocurrencies, just talking about the 38 AI companies in S&P 500. As for utility, there are limited and with fierce competition, the prices of the actual products and services would be low.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2025/all-chips-in-ai-related-asset-valuations-financial-stability-consequences

It's not about would it burst but when would it. People investing in S&P 500 or those index funds are not diversifying their investment but putting their money straight into the bubble. This also endangers 401(k) retirement plan in the US with a subsequent AI bubble burst taking US and the whole world in long recession. Are you prepared for the bubble burst? What effects would it have on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole?

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Today at 02:22:52 AM
 #2

A lot of bubbles don't really burst with long lasting effects imo. If you're invested in something during a bubble and it's somewhat diversified, they've still retained the knowledge and talent they've developed in that corporation and they are still a leader in that.

The AI stocks being only $2.8 trillion I'm guessing ignores Microsoft's, Nvidia's and AMD's stakes in OpenAI and each other (because OpenAI has weird shares that aren't publicly traded).
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Today at 02:40:31 AM
 #3

Many economists are already writing about the AI bubble. There is no doubt that when the bubble bursts, it is guaranteed to bring down the cryptocurrency market. However, the collapse of the AI bubble will affect all markets and the global economy too. I read several reputable economists. One of them predicts the collapse of the bubble this fall. Well, so far, his prediction, fortunately, has not come true. By the way, Yann LeCun, a well-known AI scientist, recently made a good point that AI technology itself is not a bubble. A bubble is an inflated expectation from AI (I'm not conveying it verbatim, but the meaning is something like this).

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Today at 04:42:49 AM
 #4

People investing in S&P 500 or those index funds are not diversifying their investment but putting their money straight into the bubble.

You were doing fine until you said that nonsense. Before the launch of AI, most of the weight of the S&P 500 was already concentrated in those companies. What a coincidence that the ones with the greatest weight in AI are the ones that have been called the “magnificent seven.” To say that investing in them plus all the others in the index is not diversifying is bullshit, even if some valuations are obviously too high.

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Today at 07:28:49 AM
 #5

Many economists are already writing about the AI bubble. There is no doubt that when the bubble bursts, it is guaranteed to bring down the cryptocurrency market. However, the collapse of the AI bubble will affect all markets and the global economy too. I read several reputable economists. One of them predicts the collapse of the bubble this fall. Well, so far, his prediction, fortunately, has not come true. By the way, Yann LeCun, a well-known AI scientist, recently made a good point that AI technology itself is not a bubble. A bubble is an inflated expectation from AI (I'm not conveying it verbatim, but the meaning is something like this).

It will seem obvious in hindsight with the valuations being so high which is unlikely to be matched by future profitability because the numbers simply don't work. Combined with the fact there is so much circular financing between these companies that contribute the the lofty valuation and you have a recipe for disaster, it's looking like the dotcom bubble all over again. I've found benefits from using AI but it still produces a lot of bad responses and really needs a an intelligent human interpreter in order for it to be used successfully.

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