Never underestimate the power of compounding..$2k to $16 million

[traderethereum]

I wish that were as easy as it says but that will not be easy. Whether that calculation is perfect, we will not win easily. We are in a gambling situation where the chance of winning is not very high. Not to mention that we need to have luck to win so achieving that calculation is difficult.

But if they want to try it, they should understand the risks and stop if the situation changes. The win rate will change but that will not give you a big chance to win. Yes, the math is blowing our minds because we see if that is easy. But the fact is not.

Be careful if you decide to try. No guarantee you can win as expected. No need to keep playing if you think you are far away from that result.

[Samahabosa]

On paper, with all the scribbles about compounding, everything seems possible, but in reality, it's hard to achieve. Whether gambling or trading futures, compounding with a strategy that says you'll get this much and end up with that much is very easy to write. But the reality is that it is very difficult and challenging.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Never underestimate the nonsense you can read on this forum.

Too much theory.

Have you learn from actual experience? TBH, I don't really taking serious are mosthly in theory. But, more prefer from someone experience in real field like you actually do these in gambling and explained with us based on real result.

Not theory.

Agreed.

I have just one question. Do you have $16mln?

No, he doesn't. And that's the main issue here. Apart from other objections that have been raised, and even considering the most favorable scenario, no one in their right mind who starts with a bankroll of $2K is going to hold out until they reach $16M without making a single cashout.

[Vaculin]

I don’t see any condition like you stated. What I read is compounding on the bet.

Meaning if a bet loses , the 2% initial bet will be lower but still you will need to compound it to 2% of the lowered bankroll. The only decrease on the bet is due to the total bankroll size decrease due to losses but the compounding is continued.

And risk of ruined is not computed like a simple 2% x 50 on this case due to the compounding effect.

Anyway only OP can clarify this and RoR is always a crucial factor on any simulation of bet considering it’s a 55% WR only.

It’s always a fixed 2% of your bankroll. The “compounded” part I mentioned is only when I’m in profit, because eventually the amount per stake will grow since it’s based on your bankroll.

Agreed.

I can see you’re not really into sports-betting discussions based on your posts history, so I get why you said that. You probably don’t have experience with this or maybe you didn’t read the OP. Just chill.

I have just one question. Do you have $16mln?

No, he doesn't. And that's the main issue here. Apart from other objections that have been raised, and even considering the most favorable scenario, no one in their right mind who starts with a bankroll of $2K is going to hold out until they reach $16M without making a single cashout.

Again, these comments don’t understand the context of the OP.

[tygeade]

Thats so good to see that this can be win via gambling. But no matter what we think, this still so hard to do in real life. I can only imagine how hard it is to go at that particular gains. I can only say wow for this he already got a money for lifetime. You think it's possible to lose these money again? Or he gonna quit now? If its me I already set in for good.

Believe it or not, some people will actually earn life-changing amounts of money from gambling or lotteries, but then they lose that money again in the same thing. It's crazy but it's true. I have heard of so many stories of people winning lotteries and jackpots, but then gambling all or at least most of it back in gambling because of the urge to gamble, and the thought process of making more money with what they already have. We all know how a gambler thinks, if they have a lot of money, they feel they can easily win more money with it.

A person who gambles with a small bankroll will always have the thought that if they had a big bankroll, they would be able to make constant profits from gambling, and such gamblers are the ones who if wins a jackpot, will spend all the money on gambling again with high rolls, and will eventually end up losing everything back and then regret doing it. So yeah, people who are impatient and have no self-control could also lose such an amount back.

[Natalim]

A person who gambles with a small bankroll will always have the thought that if they had a big bankroll, they would be able to make constant profits from gambling, and such gamblers are the ones who if wins a jackpot, will spend all the money on gambling again with high rolls, and will eventually end up losing everything back and then regret doing it. So yeah, people who are impatient and have no self-control could also lose such an amount back.

For me, if I ever manage to grow my small bankroll into serious money, I would never lose it all in gambling again. One thing I learned from crypto is how to diversify investments. I see sports betting  when the goal is profit as a form of sports investment ( investing on your skills). So maybe I’d put a portion of that money into something less risky. I’m thinking real estate.

[stadus]

I wish that were as easy as it says but that will not be easy. Whether that calculation is perfect, we will not win easily. We are in a gambling situation where the chance of winning is not very high. Not to mention that we need to have luck to win so achieving that calculation is difficult.

It’s never easy to maintain a 55% win rate, especially long term, so you’re right about that. But knowing those figures helps because if you ever reach that level, assuming the same bankroll, number of bets, and win rate you already know how big your winnings can accumulate.

But if they want to try it, they should understand the risks and stop if the situation changes. The win rate will change but that will not give you a big chance to win. Yes, the math is blowing our minds because we see if that is easy. But the fact is not.

Be careful if you decide to try. No guarantee you can win as expected. No need to keep playing if you think you are far away from that result.

Well, if someone actually tries it and starts with a $2k bankroll, the only real time to stop is either when you hit the target or when you lose the entire bankroll. whichever comes first.

[mak013]

I have just one question. Do you have $16mln?

No, he doesn't. And that's the main issue here. Apart from other objections that have been raised, and even considering the most favorable scenario, no one in their right mind who starts with a bankroll of $2K is going to hold out until they reach $16M without making a single cashout.

Again, these comments don’t understand the context of the OP.

I can`t understand the context of the OP too. You want to show how you can use exponentiation? Your calculations has nothing common with real situation.
Ok, it is easy enough to get win rate 52% - the only thing i agree with you. You can catch lose streak from the beginning, on every win you will get lose next game, etc. And you have to make 3 bets every day if you wants to get 10.000 bets in 10 years.

Theory costs nothing without practice.

[KTChampions]

~
but let’s look at the numbers for a second.
say you make around 10,000 bets in your whole run, you start with a bankroll of $2,000, and you somehow keep a 55% win rate, which honestly is not impossible if you’re really disciplined.
~

This is a completely fucked-up idea. Why haven't you done this yet if it's so easy? Even if you lack discipline, you can formalize your rules and act in a way that makes discipline irrelevant... but for some reason you don't.
As for the calculations, they are absolutely fucking idiotic 
Why don't you check what kind of garbage the AI ​​gives you? The calculations there are completely incorrect, as if every bet is a win, which completely misrepresents the way compound interest works. In reality, there will be losing streaks of 5-10 bets, which can easily wipe out 10-20% of your deposit in one go.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

It can be achieved by just a few bettors but the possibility that the person will reach the target of $16 million is very small, it sound very simple in theory but the reality is very difficult, I have been trying a strategy like this on futures trading but it's very difficult to arrive at my target meanwhile from the guide where I'm learning from, it looked so simple.

The best way to find out if this simple method or these guidelines is to try it by someone, I don't really have confidence whenever there is an AI involved , and we are tackling profits on gambling, when everything is just potential, and the uncertainty is high, even on bets where you are so sure of the outcome, bad things pop up.
I have already seen threads here by members posting their gambling methods and results, and the projected profit they hoped to reach did not materialize.

This one doesn't involve AI because OP is just talking about human ability to stick with your strategy and be able to hit such a high target but even with human or AI, it will be difficult to reach such a target because like you said, which is true, "the uncertainty is high." Gambling is just not guaranteed of any big success like that, it can be possible but the chance is low because of how difficult the obstacles are to overcome before arriving at a great success.

[Russlenat]

In reality, there will be losing streaks of 5-10 bets, which can easily wipe out 10-20% of your deposit in one go.

20% is the correct number since OP mentioned it’s 2% of the bankroll. So 2% × 10 = 20%.

This one doesn't involve AI because OP is just talking about human ability to stick with your strategy and be able to hit such a high target but even with human or AI, it will be difficult to reach such a target because like you said, which is true, "the uncertainty is high." Gambling is just not guaranteed of any big success like that, it can be possible but the chance is low because of how difficult the obstacles are to overcome before arriving at a great success.

The AI part here, from what I understand, is only about computing the potential winnings based on the figures in the OP. The ability to hit a 55% win rate can’t be relied on with AI, that’s something we have to work on ourselves if we try this experiment.

We don’t even need $2k if we can’t afford it. Even $200 could work, and that would turn into $1.6 million if the calculation is correct.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

This one doesn't involve AI because OP is just talking about human ability to stick with your strategy and be able to hit such a high target but even with human or AI, it will be difficult to reach such a target because like you said, which is true, "the uncertainty is high." Gambling is just not guaranteed of any big success like that, it can be possible but the chance is low because of how difficult the obstacles are to overcome before arriving at a great success.

The AI part here, from what I understand, is only about computing the potential winnings based on the figures in the OP. The ability to hit a 55% win rate can’t be relied on with AI, that’s something we have to work on ourselves if we try this experiment.

We don’t even need $2k if we can’t afford it. Even $200 could work, and that would turn into $1.6 million if the calculation is correct.

Yes, that's the only part that featured AI, it was easy to do the mathematical calculations and make up the figures accurately but the reality of making such profits will still be impossible even if an AI was given the task to only make predictions of how to utilize this money and build such profit, it will be possible to make the prediction but there are going to be losses, many losses.

You are right, even with $200, one can assume such figure but the duration of time will be longer.

[0x000369]

your math checks out on paper and compounding is legit powerful ive seen it work wonders in investing but gambling man thats a whole different beast like everyone says theory sounds sweet until reality hits with those losing streaks that wipe you out before you even hit 1000 bets let alone 10k

i tried something similar last year started with 500 bucks aiming for conservative 1% stakes on sports picks i thought i had an edge around 52% win rate from tracking but after a rough patch of 15 losses in 20 bets my bankroll was down 25% and i got tilted chased a bit and boom half gone emotions are the real killer here no ai can account for that human factor

still props for running the numbers it does show if you could somehow stay robotic and disciplined over years maybe it works but for most of us nah id say aim smaller like turn 2k into 10k over a year thats more realistic without going bust

check this out kinda sums it up



from https://www.leadingsapiens.com/small-bets-vs-single-big-bet/ you should check it out

anyway good thread makes you think but dont bet the farm on it  

[stompix]

I love these things!



The question is, why stop at 16 million after 10,000 bets?
This is for 10 bets a day, so 3 years, why not play for at least 45 since you're young and you can retire with it!

Now let's do the math for 150,000 bets, so 45 years, so 15 cycles:
You will win $80,244,907,761,649,213,151,698,210,160,036,202,631,113,800,966,683,968,416,956,012

Assuming every person in the world buys a Buggati Noire every second it will still take 15,892,548,023,623,708,758,678,181,890,232,418,304 years!

So let's stick with just 5 more cycles, that's: 547,749,301,087,474,000,000,000,000!

So if you play for 50 000more bets, you will be able to gift a Bugatti Noire to everyone on this planet every second for 110 years!

[Patikno]

It is easy to imagine, but difficult to realize. If there were a truly effective gambling theory or strategy, countless people would experience wealth through it, but what is the reality? Not all strategies are profitable every time, because gambling is all about luck, and luck doesn't happen all the time. You can use any strategy you feel comfortable with, but you must be aware of the risk of a losing streak that could lead to a bankroll depletion before you can reach your ultimate goal. Essentially, do whatever you want to do when gambling, but the most important thing is to use safe money, meaning money you are willing to lose.

[AVE5]

It's always feasible when you do thr calculations until when it is time to actually do it, 2k 5o 16 million is not impossible don't get me wrong but the problem about compounding is the risks involved, you end up losing a lot of money. I have tried rollover before and they don't always go as expected, at some point you might end up losing all the money you have been compounding, there are no guarantees

Very true, before we should even think about compounding such amount of $2,000 to actualize $16,000,000, we should be asked, are we going to win more in the long term? And with how we should have come to understand gambling as a game of luck, every single bets can never be guaranteed to be relied on to keep rolling over and keep winning until reaches such a huge peak.
It's very difficult to imagine it possibility while chances to get it successful maybe very minimal. And at some worst time a single lost could ruin it all and we should know we can't keep winning in the long term.

[Hispo]

It works of paper but there are problems within this calculation which would be translated in massive losses in the real life. For example, you are assuming the bettor can guarantee to have a fixed winning rate of fifty five percent, which in reality that is very hard to get, what most people get is an average (has it is very impossible to be completely consistent in the long term), that means that even getting an average winning rate of fifty five percent, the bettor could experiment repetitive losses which could negatively affect his bankroll.

Within the real of reality winning rate varies with time and it is not a fixed value. If getting money out of betting was so easy than it is on paper, when there will be million of people living off it.

[Natalim]

It works of paper but there are problems within this calculation which would be translated in massive losses in the real life. For example, you are assuming the bettor can guarantee to have a fixed winning rate of fifty five percent, which in reality that is very hard to get, what most people get is an average (has it is very impossible to be completely consistent in the long term), that means that even getting an average winning rate of fifty five percent, the bettor could experiment repetitive losses which could negatively affect his bankroll.

Within the real of reality winning rate varies with time and it is not a fixed value. If getting money out of betting was so easy than it is on paper, when there will be million of people living off it.

All your fears can happen in real life, sure, but what I understand from the OP is that the presentation is only based on if we can achieve that win rate with that huge number of bets. It’s not hard to understand if you read it carefully as the formula is already there. I’m not even good at math, but since it was calculated by AI, it might really accumulate that high if everything lines up.

[Vaculin]

The question is, why stop at 16 million after 10,000 bets?

Did I ever say you have to stop? The 10k bets is just an example. If you want to go for 1 million bets, go ahead. The point is simple here bro, hit that 55% win rate. The more bets you make at that rate, the bigger your money will grow.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Most people are familiar with compounding in the context of interest payments. If you’ve ever taken a loan or held a long term investment then you know just how much your principal can grow over time.

I don’t know how applicable this concept is in gambling. Compounding growth usually requires consistency. In gambling, you can be hot one minute and cold the next. A volatile bankroll will not be able to compound over a long period of time.