What makes a good underdog pick in MMA?

[shanz]

Lately I’ve been thinking about saving a part of my budget just for underdog bets. The odds are really tempting, but in soccer it’s risky since underdogs rarely win. That’s why I feel like MMA might be a better option... one punch can completely change the fight. But I’m still not sure if it’s 100% just chance, or if there are real factors that you are using to pick the right one (beyond the high odds, ofc)… Even if this budget part is affordable to lose, I still prefer to lose it while using a 1% method (I don’t like relying purely on luck) Is there any advice?

[dimonstration]

Lately I’ve been thinking about saving a part of my budget just for underdog bets. The odds are really tempting, but in soccer it’s risky since underdogs rarely win. That’s why I feel like MMA might be a better option... one punch can completely change the fight. But I’m still not sure if it’s 100% just chance, or if there are real factors that you are using to pick the right one (beyond the high odds, ofc)… Even if this budget part is affordable to lose, I still prefer to lose it while using a 1% method (I don’t like relying purely on luck) Is there any advice?

Upset is frequent to happened on physical sports such as MMA especially on the undercard matches since a single can cause a major damage when a solid strike/kick landed.

But on main bout matches this upset is so hard to predict unless there’s clear difference on fighters ability.

I agree on this speculation.

[Agbamoni]

One punch from the underdog will change the outcome, but it is very hard to pick the right one. That settles it all, in regard to selecting underdogs as your favorite; only luck will help you select the right one. And the odds may not be high in MMA sport.

However, in sports, if eventually the underdogs win, the potential win will be high.

[Porfirii]

Odds will be tempting, but usually not enough to compensate you for the losses. Anyway, that's how I like to bet, I find it more exciting to go for the underdogs, no matter the sport, rather that making more boring, conventional picks. But my bets are oriented to leisure only, so my strategy may not be profitable for you.

[Slow death]

Lately I’ve been thinking about saving a part of my budget just for underdog bets. The odds are really tempting, but in soccer it’s risky since underdogs rarely win. That’s why I feel like MMA might be a better option... one punch can completely change the fight. But I’m still not sure if it’s 100% just chance, or if there are real factors that you are using to pick the right one (beyond the high odds, ofc)… Even if this budget part is affordable to lose, I still prefer to lose it while using a 1% method (I don’t like relying purely on luck) Is there any advice?

I haven't been betting on MMA fights, but I've been following MMA. Honestly, it's very difficult for a favorite with odds of @1.15, for example, to lose the fight; most of the time they win.

Now, when it's a title fight, I've seen surprises happen, but in those cases the odds have also been balanced, in the sense that the favorite fighter would have odds of @1.80 and the underdog would have odds of @3.00. In any case, good luck with your plan. I wonder how many wins you would need to be profitable, because I predict you'll have many losses, but how many wins would be necessary to be profitable is the question you need to ask yourself.

[coin-investor]

... I feel like MMA might be a better option... one punch can completely change the fight. But I’m still not sure if it’s 100% just chance, or if there are real factors that you are using to pick the right one (beyond the high odds, ofc)…

It’s rare for an upset to happen in MMA; there’s a saying in any fight event that style makes a fight, so experts can expect what will happen between two protagonists. A technical fighter with power will usually beat a guy who relies solely on his power and aggressiveness.
In MMA, fighters have a mix of skills. If one fighter is good at wrestling, he is good at take-downs and can do submissions, he has a better chance of winning than a Muay Thai fighter with no skills when taken to the floor. You have to be good at assessing a fighter's skill set to predict an upset.

[Jawhead999]

Bro, really?

Betting underdogs in football is easier than in MMA, even one punch can change the result like what you said, but you will realize the match ends soon before the player successfully drop his punch.

On the other hand, underdog in football is more possible because mistake in team play has a higher chance to happen.

[Sandra_hakeem]

Lately I’ve been thinking about saving a part of my budget just for underdog bets. The odds are really tempting, but in soccer it’s risky since underdogs rarely win. That’s why I feel like MMA might be a better option... one punch can completely change the fight.

You talk like you just know the stronger opponent would not punch back huh? Wake up bruh, we're in the Octagon and I know that I have a bigger chance of getting a six-figure contract if I win, you think I'll play around with you? Look, all I'm trying to say is that every sport is still the same. It's the will power for the opposition that decides if they'll win or lose.

But I’m still not sure if it’s 100% just chance, or if there are real factors that you are using to pick the right one (beyond the high odds, ofc)… Even if this budget part is affordable to lose, I still prefer to lose it while using a 1% method (I don’t like relying purely on luck) Is there any advice?

Maybe previous records of whoever is getting in the ring and who's really thirsty for the belt the most? It could be anybody, this is where an experienced mind is needed.

[aioc]

I have been picking underdogs in boxing and MMA, and it's the easiest way to lose money. It's hard to predict; it's a real gamble, but that's why bettors who won from upsets made a lot of money. It's rare, and it's like winning a lottery.
If you're betting for profit, forget about betting for underdogs; if for fun, then go ahead, even the best MMA analyst can't predict an upset, what more for someone who will shift from football to MMA.

[TopTort777]

Bro, really?

Betting underdogs in football is easier than in MMA, even one punch can change the result like what you said, but you will realize the match ends soon before the player successfully drop his punch.

On the other hand, underdog in football is more possible because mistake in team play has a higher chance to happen.

Cant deny that one punch changes fight 180 degrees, but if take some light guys from flyweight or bantamweight, then they can throw and eat punches like M&M candies Bettor can build his analysis on heavyweight is more likely to KO opponent, when flyweight fight will go full distance or opponent will be submitted. Build prediction on taking that one style guy will never be good in MMA (pure boxer will never win, guy with wrestling/grappling background will win with a bit high chance than striker). Or if we take UFC, then any other champ that was signed from other promotion wont necessary be a top fighter in UFC. Tough guys from Bellator (second or third biggest promotion after UFC) are a bit higher than average UFC guy or champion from Bellator equals bottom of UFC top15.

[Patikno]

Lately I’ve been thinking about saving a part of my budget just for underdog bets. The odds are really tempting, but in soccer it’s risky since underdogs rarely win. That’s why I feel like MMA might be a better option... one punch can completely change the fight. But I’m still not sure if it’s 100% just chance, or if there are real factors that you are using to pick the right one (beyond the high odds, ofc)… Even if this budget part is affordable to lose, I still prefer to lose it while using a 1% method (I don’t like relying purely on luck) Is there any advice?

I think I agree with you, one devastating punch, or one submission can change the course of a fight, which means we can expect that from an underdog in MMA. I haven't been following MMA much lately, but I have seen an underdog win, and he was a fighter who had just debuted in the UFC at the time. So, maybe you could try finding some MMA fighters like that to bet on, but I recommend sticking with money you are willing to risk, so you don't get too worked up when things go wrong. By the way, in soccer you can actually find several matches where underdog teams managed to win, maybe you can check previous matches to see, or see the news on google search.

[mcdouglasx]

Your 1% method for allocating a betting budget is a good risk management strategy. In MMA, although luck plays a role, you can base your underdog bets on an analysis that doesn't require much effort on your part: review fighting style, history, fight context, and metrics.

We know that chance can influence fights, but be very careful with that, as it's not all about luck.

Besides, I'm not sure this is easier than winning in soccer; I don't know if that comparison is entirely accurate.

[Alphakilo]

Lately I’ve been thinking about saving a part of my budget just for underdog bets. The odds are really tempting, but in soccer it’s risky since underdogs rarely win. That’s why I feel like MMA might be a better option... one punch can completely change the fight. But I’m still not sure if it’s 100% just chance, or if there are real factors that you are using to pick the right one (beyond the high odds, ofc)… Even if this budget part is affordable to lose, I still prefer to lose it while using a 1% method (I don’t like relying purely on luck) Is there any advice?

Every kind of gamble we bet on usually have its own strategy to look out for.
 While some like sportsbetting may require previous player statistics and team data, others may require the gambler to be able to understand the advantages in styles of each opponent and other current fighting factors as it concerns the MMA in this case.
This is how to know the value of each fighting underdog opponent you intend to bet on.

[Doan9269]

Lately I’ve been thinking about saving a part of my budget just for underdog bets. The odds are really tempting, but in soccer it’s risky since underdogs rarely win. That’s why I feel like MMA might be a better option... one punch can completely change the fight. But I’m still not sure if it’s 100% just chance, or if there are real factors that you are using to pick the right one (beyond the high odds, ofc)… Even if this budget part is affordable to lose, I still prefer to lose it while using a 1% method (I don’t like relying purely on luck) Is there any advice?

Honestly there is none i know for now than just the risk factor under luck.

There are no factors to consider for taking such bets on underdogs than the risk on winning chances, because we stand to lose the more if we are playing on sport bets as the chances are very low, not that they don't occur, but are rare to see the underdogs winning, this is just a game of being able to interpret and make the right prediction over a bet.