2026 Difficulty Thread

[joker_josue]

So with 2 and a half days left to go we are -1.66%

price is 66.1k


diff is still on a downtrend for last 8 months and 2 weeks

I believe it will still take time to rise, even if the value of bitcoin rises.

In this cycle I have the idea that it will take longer to see the hash rise.

[philipma1957]

So with 2 and a half days left to go we are -1.66%

price is 66.1k


diff is still on a downtrend for last 8 months and 2 weeks

I believe it will still take time to rise, even if the value of bitcoin rises.

In this cycle I have the idea that it will take longer to see the hash rise.

I do agree as power has shifted to AI.

I suppose its okay time will tell how this all shakes out.

[FP91G]

I believe that as soon as Bitcoin's price starts to rise, we'll see a renewed increase in hashrate and, consequently, difficulty.

AI data centers are still being built, but it's very difficult to predict their profitability. Nvidia will release new professional graphics card models, and many data centers will need to be upgraded.

[joker_josue]

I believe that as soon as Bitcoin's price starts to rise, we'll see a renewed increase in hashrate and, consequently, difficulty.

AI data centers are still being built, but it's very difficult to predict their profitability. Nvidia will release new professional graphics card models, and many data centers will need to be upgraded.

The question will be whether these centers have already ruled out ASICs or not.

Because they may have removed this equipment to prepare the space for AI equipment. In turn, they may already have contracts to fulfill, which could hinder the reactivation of ASICs.

Will they then have the infrastructure to increase their hash rate while simultaneously allocating space for AI servers?

[philipma1957]

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   959467  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.3956%  (1868 / 1879.36 expected, 11.36 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126583044759066 and 126586196260035
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4619% and -0.4595%
Previous Retarget:   July 11, 2026 at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 5:44 PM  (in 1d 0h 48m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 5:44 PM  (in 1d 0h 48m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 1m 55s and 14d 2h 2m 35s

[FP91G]

I believe that as soon as Bitcoin's price starts to rise, we'll see a renewed increase in hashrate and, consequently, difficulty.

AI data centers are still being built, but it's very difficult to predict their profitability. Nvidia will release new professional graphics card models, and many data centers will need to be upgraded.

The question will be whether these centers have already ruled out ASICs or not.

Because they may have removed this equipment to prepare the space for AI equipment. In turn, they may already have contracts to fulfill, which could hinder the reactivation of ASICs.

Will they then have the infrastructure to increase their hash rate while simultaneously allocating space for AI servers?

Many data centers are scheduled to launch in 2028 or later, so it's not profitable for miners to shut down equipment now. If a data center has a tenant and the rental income is greater than the profit from ASIC mining, then the mining equipment will likely be shut down. However, selling old equipment is very difficult right now.

[joker_josue]

Many data centers are scheduled to launch in 2028 or later, so it's not profitable for miners to shut down equipment now. If a data center has a tenant and the rental income is greater than the profit from ASIC mining, then the mining equipment will likely be shut down. However, selling old equipment is very difficult right now.

They may not sell the old equipment.
But if the space is already occupied by AI machines, they cannot turn the turned-off machines back on.

I think that when Bitcoin starts to appreciate again, we'll see many mining companies regretting the decision they made to migrate part of their capacity to AI.

Because they envision 2028 as the ideal target date, they believe they have time to readjust their capacity to achieve both goals. However, if the upward cycle begins sooner, it will be "complicated."

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   959585  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2025%  (1986 / 2001.97 expected, 15.97 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126326043059378 and 126326228816868
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6640% and -0.6639%
Previous Retarget:   July 11, 2026 at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:24 PM  (in 0d 5h 2m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:24 PM  (in 0d 5h 2m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 42m 2s and 14d 2h 42m 4s



5 hours or so to the next jump

a small decline appears likely

I hope to get -1% and not -0.5%

but either way it allows me to not buy more miners and still get just about the same BTC as I did the last 2 weeks


Latest Block:   959592  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.1150%  (1993 / 2010.80 expected, 17.8 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126213840470742 and 126213964052179
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.7523% and -0.7522%
Previous Retarget:   July 11, 2026 at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:42 PM  (in 0d 3h 52m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:42 PM  (in 0d 3h 52m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 59m 59s and 14d 3h 0m 1s


-.88% and 23 blocks to go.



Latest Block:   959607  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   99.0899%  (2008 / 2026.44 expected, 18.44 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126180663603708 and 126180679069387
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.7784% and -0.7783%
Previous Retarget:   July 11, 2026 at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:47 PM  (in 0d 1h 20m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:47 PM  (in 0d 1h 20m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 5m 9s and 14d 3h 5m 9s


8 blocks left and -1% looks about right




                 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Latest Block:   959610  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   98.9939%  (2011 / 2031.44 expected, 20.44 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126057948973031 and 126057955756673
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.8749% and -0.8748%
Previous Retarget:   July 11, 2026 at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:07 PM  (in 0d 0h 50m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:07 PM  (in 0d 0h 50m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 24m 53s and 14d 3h 24m 53s

just over a 1% drop

with 5 blocks to go.



Ended up

-0.73% well here is to the next two weeks. Hoping  for a small drop in hash and diff  to happen again.

[Nexus9090]

The trend is downward and sustained even though this is a small drop.

Looking at the history, I'd estimate a slight rise next time around say 3-5% up and the following perhaps a 7% drop in a months time.

[FP91G]

Many data centers are scheduled to launch in 2028 or later, so it's not profitable for miners to shut down equipment now. If a data center has a tenant and the rental income is greater than the profit from ASIC mining, then the mining equipment will likely be shut down. However, selling old equipment is very difficult right now.

They may not sell the old equipment.
But if the space is already occupied by AI machines, they cannot turn the turned-off machines back on.

I think that when Bitcoin starts to appreciate again, we'll see many mining companies regretting the decision they made to migrate part of their capacity to AI.

Because they envision 2028 as the ideal target date, they believe they have time to readjust their capacity to achieve both goals. However, if the upward cycle begins sooner, it will be "complicated."

Many mining companies are currently unprofitable or not profitable. I've used my own example to explain that before the halving, I'll only just break even on my mining equipment, and then I'll need to find the money to buy more expensive and energy-efficient equipment. If Bitcoin ends up above $150,000 by the end of the year, miners will regret it, but if it's in the $60,000-$80,000 range, there's nothing to regret.

[philipma1957]

Many data centers are scheduled to launch in 2028 or later, so it's not profitable for miners to shut down equipment now. If a data center has a tenant and the rental income is greater than the profit from ASIC mining, then the mining equipment will likely be shut down. However, selling old equipment is very difficult right now.

They may not sell the old equipment.
But if the space is already occupied by AI machines, they cannot turn the turned-off machines back on.

I think that when Bitcoin starts to appreciate again, we'll see many mining companies regretting the decision they made to migrate part of their capacity to AI.

Because they envision 2028 as the ideal target date, they believe they have time to readjust their capacity to achieve both goals. However, if the upward cycle begins sooner, it will be "complicated."

Many mining companies are currently unprofitable or not profitable. I've used my own example to explain that before the halving, I'll only just break even on my mining equipment, and then I'll need to find the money to buy more expensive and energy-efficient equipment. If Bitcoin ends up above $150,000 by the end of the year, miners will regret it, but if it's in the $60,000-$80,000 range, there's nothing to regret.

Yeah 50k makes me a loser unless the diff drops more.

the price today keeps me ahead of the power cost.

and if we jump to a new high (150k) getting new gear will cost big bucks

So never mind new gear or repaired gear. If I do buy a unit it will be this one.

https://www.corexhosting.io/product-page/bitdeer-a3-pro-hydro

looking back to the peak in Nov 2025 we just go down and have a few bounce backs as you can see below:

[FP91G]

Many data centers are scheduled to launch in 2028 or later, so it's not profitable for miners to shut down equipment now. If a data center has a tenant and the rental income is greater than the profit from ASIC mining, then the mining equipment will likely be shut down. However, selling old equipment is very difficult right now.

They may not sell the old equipment.
But if the space is already occupied by AI machines, they cannot turn the turned-off machines back on.

I think that when Bitcoin starts to appreciate again, we'll see many mining companies regretting the decision they made to migrate part of their capacity to AI.

Because they envision 2028 as the ideal target date, they believe they have time to readjust their capacity to achieve both goals. However, if the upward cycle begins sooner, it will be "complicated."

Many mining companies are currently unprofitable or not profitable. I've used my own example to explain that before the halving, I'll only just break even on my mining equipment, and then I'll need to find the money to buy more expensive and energy-efficient equipment. If Bitcoin ends up above $150,000 by the end of the year, miners will regret it, but if it's in the $60,000-$80,000 range, there's nothing to regret.

Yeah 50k makes me a loser unless the diff drops more.

the price today keeps me ahead of the power cost.

and if we jump to a new high (150k) getting new gear will cost big bucks

So never mind new gear or repaired gear. If I do buy a unit it will be this one.

https://www.corexhosting.io/product-page/bitdeer-a3-pro-hydro

looking back to the peak in Nov 2025 we just go down and have a few bounce backs as you can see below:

~

You're right that the price of ASICs usually depends on the price of Bitcoin for small miners. Large companies purchase equipment under contracts with pre-agreed prices, so they have a huge advantage.
I'm looking at my colleagues' experiences with water-cooled ASICs, and they all have homemade cooling systems. It's already clear that air cooling will be less effective.