2026 Difficulty Thread

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   952069  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   95.8709%  (518 / 540.31 expected, 22.31 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 133440904753753 and 136430279960755
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.9685% and -1.8172%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 12, 2026 at 12:49 PM  (in 10d 12h 25m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 12, 2026 at 8:49 PM  (in 10d 20h 25m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 28m 52s and 14d 14h 28m 16s


Terrible prices and the diff is heading down

Plenty early maybe we pick it up

[joker_josue]

Terrible prices and the diff is heading down

Plenty early maybe we pick it up

That's because summer is coming to the northern hemisphere.
People are starting to turn off their machines because of the heat. 

The price of energy has also been increasing, making it more difficult to secure good contracts.

[philipma1957]

crashing burning down down down we go oh no.


Latest Block:   952153  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.6743%  (602 / 642.65 expected, 40.65 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 130348684880676 and 134445282380545
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.1938% and -3.2457%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 12, 2026 at 5:52 PM  (in 10d 0h 25m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 13, 2026 at 5:02 AM  (in 10d 11h 34m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 31m 39s and 14d 22h 41m 22s

[Nexus9090]

crashing burning down down down we go oh no.


Latest Block:   952153  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.6743%  (602 / 642.65 expected, 40.65 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 130348684880676 and 134445282380545
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.1938% and -3.2457%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 12, 2026 at 5:52 PM  (in 10d 0h 25m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 13, 2026 at 5:02 AM  (in 10d 11h 34m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 31m 39s and 14d 22h 41m 22s

Personally I'd welcome a huge crash in the diff. Give some of us solo miners a little more chance. It'd be nice if it fell about 100T 

[philipma1957]

crashing burning down down down we go oh no.


Latest Block:   952153  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.6743%  (602 / 642.65 expected, 40.65 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 130348684880676 and 134445282380545
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.1938% and -3.2457%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 12, 2026 at 5:52 PM  (in 10d 0h 25m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 13, 2026 at 5:02 AM  (in 10d 11h 34m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 31m 39s and 14d 22h 41m 22s

Personally I'd welcome a huge crash in the diff. Give some of us solo miners a little more chance. It'd be nice if it fell about 100T 

do you mean drop from 139t to  39t

Or 155th to 55t

Or  drop to  100t?

At this point any of those 3 work for me.

[Nexus9090]

crashing burning down down down we go oh no.


Latest Block:   952153  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.6743%  (602 / 642.65 expected, 40.65 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 130348684880676 and 134445282380545
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.1938% and -3.2457%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 12, 2026 at 5:52 PM  (in 10d 0h 25m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 13, 2026 at 5:02 AM  (in 10d 11h 34m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 31m 39s and 14d 22h 41m 22s

Personally I'd welcome a huge crash in the diff. Give some of us solo miners a little more chance. It'd be nice if it fell about 100T 

do you mean drop from 139t to  39t

Or 155th to 55t

Or  drop to  100t?

At this point any of those 3 work for me.

I was joking, but yes just -100T would do down to about 39T. might be in with a slim chance then 

[philipma1957]

crashing burning down down down we go oh no.


Latest Block:   952153  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.6743%  (602 / 642.65 expected, 40.65 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 130348684880676 and 134445282380545
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.1938% and -3.2457%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 12, 2026 at 5:52 PM  (in 10d 0h 25m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 13, 2026 at 5:02 AM  (in 10d 11h 34m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 31m 39s and 14d 22h 41m 22s

Personally I'd welcome a huge crash in the diff. Give some of us solo miners a little more chance. It'd be nice if it fell about 100T 

do you mean drop from 139t to  39t

Or 155th to 55t

Or  drop to  100t?

At this point any of those 3 work for me.

I was joking, but yes just -100T would do down to about 39T. might be in with a slim chance then 

We may go to 125 or 126t

Frankly I can see us down to 111t

[Nexus9090]

-snip-

We may go to 125 or 126t

Frankly I can see us down to 111t

Yes, its dropping quite quickly. I wonder what's driving that.

[philipma1957]

-snip-

We may go to 125 or 126t

Frankly I can see us down to 111t

Yes, its dropping quite quickly. I wonder what's driving that.

S21xp

3 cents a th

Comes to 3x270 or $8.10 prior to power cost.

Power is 3.5kwatts an hour or 84 kwatts

So 84x9=   7.56 power cost with 9 cent power

So everyone over 8 cent power cost can't mine with the most efficient gear.

Now think of all the shitty gear

 s21 pro loser at 7 cent
s21+ loser at 6 cent
s21 loser at 5 cent

Mine are shutting off

[Nexus9090]

-snip-

We may go to 125 or 126t

Frankly I can see us down to 111t

Yes, its dropping quite quickly. I wonder what's driving that.

S21xp

3 cents a th

Comes to 3x270 or $8.10 prior to power cost.

Power is 3.5kwatts an hour or 84 kwatts

So 84x9=   7.56 power cost with 9 cent power

So everyone over 8 cent power cost can't mine with the most efficient gear.

Now think of all the shitty gear

 s21 pro loser at 7 cent
s21+ loser at 6 cent
s21 loser at 5 cent

Mine are shutting off

Yeah, I hadn't thought of it in those terms. That goes a long way to explain it.

Just too expensive to run; that trend will only get worse with the increasing risk to fuel supplies.

In Europe and UK they're already threatening blackouts and reduced gas supplies so if that happens the diff could well fall off a cliff-edge.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   952270  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   88.9063%  (719 / 808.72 expected, 89.72 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                            
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 123678152039610 and 129574556112911
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.9943% and -6.7509%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 13, 2026 at 6:55 AM  (in 9d 9h 47m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 14, 2026 at 12:16 AM  (in 10d 3h 8m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 0h 34m 22s and 15d 17h 55m 34s

we could go under 111t a 20% diff drop

price looks certain to go into the 50's

[alh]

Right now, BTC is at $62K. That seems like a dramatic decline in the last two weeks.

[Nexus9090]

Right now, BTC is at $62K. That seems like a dramatic decline in the last two weeks.

Holy crap!

I wasn't expecting that. 10K drop in 3 days. I must admit I've not been watching the price; its somewhat irrelevant for solo mining until you hit the block!

Mine on!!!

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   952611  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   90.7849%  (1060 / 1167.60 expected, 107.6 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 126248104559033 and 128898800846458
Next Difficulty Change:   between -9.1448% and -7.2373%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 13, 2026 at 8:46 AM  (in 6d 23h 50m 13s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 13, 2026 at 4:27 PM  (in 7d 7h 30m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 2h 26m 10s and 15d 10h 6m 20s

[Nexus9090]

Well,

If this drop keeps going we may well see a drop in excess of 10 or 11%

There doesn't seem to be much slowing it down. Perhaps it'll fall even further, who knows!

Not that it changes much for the solo miner I've yet to see one of my miners get anywhere remotely close to the network diff.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   952892  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.5115%  (1341 / 1498.13 expected, 157.13 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 124456098281883 and 125929168094739
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.4345% and -9.3744%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:18 PM  (in 5d 1h 16m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 9:42 PM  (in 5d 5h 40m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 10h 57m 25s and 15d 15h 22m 14s


yeah a lot of time on board to go  we are very close to the right numbers so i do not see a drop to -15%

but -8 or 9 or -10 look very possible