2026 Difficulty Thread

[joker_josue]

It has the potential presently to drive the diff way down, especially if BTC value drops even further.

Perhaps stopping adding hashes to the network could be a good idea. But, driven by the desire to obtain more and more, the large miners are constantly looking to increase their power.

[Nexus9090]

It has the potential presently to drive the diff way down, especially if BTC value drops even further.

large miners are constantly looking to increase their power.

Unfortunately for large mining and corporate mining set-ups, there is no way for them to increase their power without incurring debt at the moment.

There's not a mining rig available that is genuinely profitable presently unless you have completely free energy.

That's why things are being switched off and the diff is going down.

[joker_josue]

It has the potential presently to drive the diff way down, especially if BTC value drops even further.

large miners are constantly looking to increase their power.

Unfortunately for large mining and corporate mining set-ups, there is no way for them to increase their power without incurring debt at the moment.

There's not a mining rig available that is genuinely profitable presently unless you have completely free energy.

That's why things are being switched off and the diff is going down.

What I meant was that perhaps two years ago they shouldn't have increased their hashing capabilities.

I see the constant need to increase the hash rate, something that should have stopped or slowed down by now. But, hey, those who can will always want to earn more and more.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   953102  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   89.0679%  (1551 / 1741.37 expected, 190.37 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                            
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 123828850682102 and 124550178270445
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.8859% and -10.3668%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 9:23 PM  (in 3d 12h 49m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 11:35 PM  (in 3d 15h 0m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 15h 2m 46s and 15d 17h 14m 25s


looks like we drop 8-10%

to about 123t -125t

the numbers are not as steep as the price drop.

@ nexus9090  yeah buying new liquid miners that do 9.5 watts is super costly

so most gear is at 13 watts or worse ie the s21xp

realistically  a sale on the s21xp say 3k means you need 4 watt power

which is 0.04 x 3.6x24=3.456

 $3.46 power cost

and 0.027 x 270 =7.29  income

7.29-3.46= 3.83  a day or

3000/3.83=783.29 days for payoff is you have 4 cent power most don't have 4 cent power.

and ai offers more $$ for you watts used.

I see the diff going to 95-105t and price to 49k

and maybe we turn around then

[joker_josue]

and ai offers more $$ for you watts used.

In other words, perhaps the biggest reason for shutting down machines is the profitability of AI, rather than the drop in Bitcoin's value.

[philipma1957]

and ai offers more $$ for you watts used.

In other words, perhaps the biggest reason for shutting down machines is the profitability of AI, rather than the drop in Bitcoin's value.

no both

 some mines can not switch to ai or sell their power off to ai. and they are not making worthwhile on mining so they shut down.


some mines can pivot to ai and it makes  more money so they switched.

some mines are making just enough and are hanging in there.


 my setup is either 100usd a month up or 100 usd a month down.

i can do that for the whole year and I will

[Nexus9090]

-SNIP-
and ai offers more $$ for you watts used.

I see the diff going to 95-105t and price to 49k

and maybe we turn around then

I agree totally. I think the diff is going to drop and continue to drop. Especially if the price dumps further we could see a massive switch-off

Great for the solo miners of the world. I welcome it. Too much corporate greed going on.

[philipma1957]

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   953174  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.1310%  (1623 / 1820.92 expected, 197.92 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                            
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 123913737086993 and 124425575669740
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.8248% and -10.4564%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 9:45 PM  (in 2d 23h 55m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 11:19 PM  (in 3d 1h 29m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 15h 24m 58s and 15d 16h 58m 23s

Latest Block:   953236  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.5686%  (1685 / 1881.24 expected, 196.24 behind)


Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                         
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 124520201305636 and 124869887777938
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.3883% and -10.1367%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 8:25 PM  (in 2d 12h 32m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 9:28 PM  (in 2d 13h 35m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 14h 4m 35s and 15d 15h 7m 52s



So a 15 day 12 hour adjustment vs 14 days

a steep drop m for sure. But the gear is out there.

Myself I could add 520th in an hour if prices went up.

I would go from 2500th to 3000th.

A lot of smaller miners could do this.

I would run 3 t21s at full speed in my garage if we were at a 250k price and it was the winter.

That is 10kwatts so  10x24= 240 a day and 7200 a month at 20 cents power cost a 1400  dollar power bill.


570x10=57 earned a day or 1710 coin earned a month that is 310 profit and free heat from Nov 1 to April 1

So the hash and the diff would go way way up if we hit a 250k price.

[joker_josue]

570x10=57 earned a day or 1710 coin earned a month that is 310 profit and free heat from Nov 1 to April 1

So the hash and the diff would go way way up if we hit a 250k price.

Could we see an increase in hash rates during winter (in the Northern Hemisphere), even if the price of Bitcoin doesn't rise much?

[philipma1957]

570x10=57 earned a day or 1710 coin earned a month that is 310 profit and free heat from Nov 1 to April 1

So the hash and the diff would go way way up if we hit a 250k price.

Could we see an increase in hash rates during winter (in the Northern Hemisphere), even if the price of Bitcoin doesn't rise much?

Maybe.  What i find interesting is what will gear builders do?

A shift to bitmains 5700 watt s23 hydro costs a lot of money.


https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s23-hydro-bitcoin-miner/  

this is 14,000 usd it is efficient  but if you have all  air gear. It costs over 3k in cooling gear.

Plus 3 phase power so maybe 20k to setup one piece..

Or buy 3 s21xps for 11k get 810 th hash and burn 11k power save 9k setup  cost

810th 11k power 11k cost
550th   5.5k power 20k cost

It takes a really long time to make back the 9k out lay. And if price goes up a lot the s21xps are better for year and years.


Remember  we are going way down in coins left.

[Nexus9090]

-snip-

Remember  we are going way down in coins left.

At the next halving I expect many of the larger mining farms to just quit. Its closer than everyone thinks, just under 2 years away.

If BTC hasn't hit record highs by then its pretty much game over for mining.

I can't see any of the corporate miners sticking around just to mine for fees. The whole thing could very well collapse.

[philipma1957]

Newhedge.io
Latest Block:   953373  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.7034%  (1822 / 2031.14 expected, 209.14 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                            
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 124703157072295 and 124821711874610
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.2567% and -10.1714%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 8:33 PM  (in 1d 11h 41m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 8:54 PM  (in 1d 12h 2m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 14h 12m 37s and 15d 14h 34m 3s

Some time Saturday  new adjustment.

My gut tells me trouble is coming.

newhedge.io
Latest Block:   953516  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   90.3298%  (1965 / 2175.36 expected, 210.36 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                           
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Next Difficulty:   between 125570293791115 and 125578035166242
Next Difficulty Change:   between -9.6326% and -9.6271%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:17 PM  (in 0d 9h 23m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:18 PM  (in 0d 9h 24m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 11h 56m 49s and 15d 11h 58m 12s

later today

[Nexus9090]

Newhedge.io
Latest Block:   953373  (21 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.7034%  (1822 / 2031.14 expected, 209.14 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                            
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 124703157072295 and 124821711874610
Next Difficulty Change:   between -10.2567% and -10.1714%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 8:33 PM  (in 1d 11h 41m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 8:54 PM  (in 1d 12h 2m 40s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 14h 12m 37s and 15d 14h 34m 3s

Some time Saturday  new adjustment.

My gut tells me trouble is coming.

I agree, I think with the price pressure and the diff drop BTC now sits at a tipping point.

I can't see a rapid recovery in BTC price, so this is likely to go only one way.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/


Latest Block:   953425  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   89.9624%  (1874 / 2083.09 expected, 209.09 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   136607070854775.1                            
Current Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 125061842321072 and 125123911038923
Next Difficulty Change:   between -9.9985% and -9.9539%
Previous Retarget:   May 29, 2026 at 6:20 AM  (+1.7190%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:38 PM  (in 1d 2h 7m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:50 PM  (in 1d 2h 18m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 13h 18m 11s and 15d 13h 29m 21s

a bit more than a day. to go

[Nexus9090]

So, OK down 10.09% to 124.93T

Pretty much what we were expecting.

[philipma1957]

And for my hosted gear 9x s21xps

9x270=2,430 th

2430 x 0.032=77.76  usd a day

77.76x30.4=2,363.904

and 1 L9 which is 8.57 a day

30.4x8.57=260.528

2363.90+260.53=


2,624.43  earnings
2,331.43  power bill
   297.00  profit

which is very tight.

I need about 80k a coin to be in decent shape

or a bigger drop in the diff.

[Nexus9090]

And for my hosted gear 9x s21xps

9x270=2,430 th

2430 x 0.032=77.76  usd a day

77.76x30.4=2,363.904

and 1 L9 which is 8.57 a day

30.4x8.57=260.528

2363.90+260.53=


2,624.43  earnings
2,331.43  power bill
   297.00  profit

which is very tight.

I need about 80k a coin to be in decent shape

or a bigger drop in the diff.

Is that 2.43PH/s all pushed onto PPLNS?

How much are you running solo, if you don't mind my asking?

[philipma1957]

And for my hosted gear 9x s21xps

9x270=2,430 th

2430 x 0.032=77.76  usd a day

77.76x30.4=2,363.904

and 1 L9 which is 8.57 a day

30.4x8.57=260.528

2363.90+260.53=


2,624.43  earnings
2,331.43  power bill
   297.00  profit

which is very tight.

I need about 80k a coin to be in decent shape

or a bigger drop in the diff.

Is that 2.43PH/s all pushed onto PPLNS?

How much are you running solo, if you don't mind my asking?

Sure 40th and 1th and soon 10th.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   953673  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.7022%  (106 / 113.12 expected, 7.12 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Current Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 118244225234538 and 124213414482347
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.3538% and -0.5759%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 8:12 PM  (-10.0914%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 27, 2026 at 10:31 PM  (in 13d 7h 27m 29s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 28, 2026 at 6:47 PM  (in 14d 3h 43m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 18m 44s and 14d 22h 34m 58s

We are very early but a 6% drop would help. Say 117t