2026 Difficulty Thread

[philipma1957]

~~

But for printing money to work, he would have to sell the shares. Otherwise, it's money that can't be moved.
Or am I wrong?

This thing about high finance is really complicated sometimes..

there are around 8 billion shares he has control of about 60% of them.

so 4.8 billion shares.

shares are 170 so

4800,000,000 x 170 =8.16×10¹¹=  816 billon dollars.


he can pledge 10,000,000 shares at 150 to be transferred the day after the release date.

that is 1,500,000,000 billion bucks.

he future pledged them at a discount to a bank willing to take a shot.

and he can sweeten that with a 2% contingency.

ie if shares are under 150 he gives the bank 200,000 more shares.


i use smaller numbers above.

if he did that. here is the worst 10,200,000 shares are gone

he still has 816,000,000,000-10,200,000=815.9 billion shares

he would be foolish to not do a few pledges since it gives him cash now and hedges if the stock drops way low to 85 dollars.  

Latest Block:   956156  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.1822%  (573 / 583.61 expected, 10.61 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 131481793851789 and 132694531954891
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7839% and -0.8780%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 11, 2026 at 1:00 AM  (in 10d 1h 45m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 11, 2026 at 4:11 AM  (in 10d 4h 57m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 2m 1s and 14d 6h 13m 15s

[joker_josue]

he would be foolish to not do a few pledges since it gives him cash now and hedges if the stock drops way low to 85 dollars.  

But do you really think the banks will be willing to buy those shares like that?
As soon as the market finds out he did that, panic sets in and the price starts to fall.

Now, perhaps he won't even need to do that to ask the banks for money. Because he's at a level of market recognition where banks will always trust him to pay his bills.

I think these tycoons, who have millions, end up getting trapped in their own system in order to continue "having" all of that.

None of them can really say, "I'm going to sell everything and retire to a deserted island." Because nobody is going to buy everything they have at this price, and as soon as they start doing that, what is now worth millions will be worth very little.

[FP91G]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

It is no longer about profit for big miners. It is about future mined coin control.

2012 10,500,000 coins left
2016   5,250,000 coins left
2020   2,625,000 coins left
2024   1,312,500 coins left

maybe 982,000 coins left  right now

2028     656,250.00
2032     328,125.00
2036     164,062.50
2040       82,031.25

so from today to 2040 1/2ing  900,000 coins will be mined

We are watching large miners looking to really dial in on these coins and they do not care is they lose some money in the short run getting them.

I don't understand it, Bitcoin is currently worth less than 60,000. Many miners are mining their Bitcoins for more than that.
Mining competition is high, and the difficulty isn't decreasing much. It's more profitable to buy coins now than equipment that won't pay for itself before the halving and will be unprofitable after.

That is because you live in Russia and you do not have a lot of capitalism training.

This means you are not aware of all the convoluted mind games capitalists do about money.

Much like I am not aware of the inner workings of Russia.

But like I said earlier Musk basically printed money with his IPO for spcx

1.2 trillion dollars of which 700 billion is his stock.

Do you think he looks at money like you or I do? hell no he just created 1.2 trillion worth of stock which based on company earnings of 18.7 billion last year while it spent 23.7 billion

Stop to think about that. 1.2 trillion stock value for a company that lost 5 billion dollars.

It is more like religion and faith than sound business.

this is what is being done with mining.

we all know the coins will drop from 980,000 to 80,000 by 2040

and these companies are willing to lose money fighting for fresh coins and control of them.

Hell like I said Musk printed 700 billion for himself on a company that lost 5 billion last year.

he can buy most of Saylor's coins say 600,000 for 48 billion which bails out Saylor
he can buy 500eh for around 15 billion which give himself 1/3 of the miners.

so 15+48=63

and he just printed 700

so 700-63=637

I am not saying musk will do any of it but others do ipos which is essentially printing money

and they can toss it at both mining and Ai if they want.

look at this list of ipo's for last 2 years or so

https://www.tipranks.com/calendars/ipo/pricing?

851 IPO's for last 2 years  all printed money:

Orient Technologies Ltd ORIC BSE Aug 27, 2024 ₹303.50 6.92M ₹2.10B
―
PERSHING SQUARE INC. PS NYSE Apr 29, 2026 $50.00 40.52M $2.03B -34.60%

_

As Partners Co Ltd160AJPXApr 03, 2024 ¥1,920.00 1.10M ¥2.00B 1.25%
―

L is B Corp 145A JPX Mar 25, 2024 ¥1,190.00 1.68M ¥2.00B -35.71%
―
Fervo Energy Co FRVO NASDAQ Global Select May 13, 2026 $27.00 70.00M $1.89B11.37%

-

Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.BXDCNYSEMay 14, 2026 $20.00 87.50M $1.75B7.50%
-




just a few of the 851 on the list they all got free money to play with and they toss darts hoping to get a bullseye.

I don't have Elon Musk's experience with capitalism, but SpaceX's divisions and subsidiaries look interesting from a future technology perspective.
US presidents change, but Elon Musk and his companies receive massive government support.

Now I'll tell you about capitalism in Russia. With Bitcoin's current price level, mining companies are losing money. Therefore, Russian authorities are preparing to ban mining in Moscow and the surrounding region. Official miners there consume over 1 gigawatt per hour, but there are also many illegal miners. So the government is telling miners that if you don't pay taxes, we'll give that electricity to more profitable businesses.

[philipma1957]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

It is no longer about profit for big miners. It is about future mined coin control.

2012 10,500,000 coins left
2016   5,250,000 coins left
2020   2,625,000 coins left
2024   1,312,500 coins left

maybe 982,000 coins left  right now

2028     656,250.00
2032     328,125.00
2036     164,062.50
2040       82,031.25

so from today to 2040 1/2ing  900,000 coins will be mined

We are watching large miners looking to really dial in on these coins and they do not care is they lose some money in the short run getting them.

I don't understand it, Bitcoin is currently worth less than 60,000. Many miners are mining their Bitcoins for more than that.
Mining competition is high, and the difficulty isn't decreasing much. It's more profitable to buy coins now than equipment that won't pay for itself before the halving and will be unprofitable after.

That is because you live in Russia and you do not have a lot of capitalism training.

This means you are not aware of all the convoluted mind games capitalists do about money.

Much like I am not aware of the inner workings of Russia.

But like I said earlier Musk basically printed money with his IPO for spcx

1.2 trillion dollars of which 700 billion is his stock.

Do you think he looks at money like you or I do? hell no he just created 1.2 trillion worth of stock which based on company earnings of 18.7 billion last year while it spent 23.7 billion

Stop to think about that. 1.2 trillion stock value for a company that lost 5 billion dollars.

It is more like religion and faith than sound business.

this is what is being done with mining.

we all know the coins will drop from 980,000 to 80,000 by 2040

and these companies are willing to lose money fighting for fresh coins and control of them.

Hell like I said Musk printed 700 billion for himself on a company that lost 5 billion last year.

he can buy most of Saylor's coins say 600,000 for 48 billion which bails out Saylor
he can buy 500eh for around 15 billion which give himself 1/3 of the miners.

so 15+48=63

and he just printed 700

so 700-63=637

I am not saying musk will do any of it but others do ipos which is essentially printing money

and they can toss it at both mining and Ai if they want.

look at this list of ipo's for last 2 years or so

https://www.tipranks.com/calendars/ipo/pricing?

851 IPO's for last 2 years  all printed money:

Orient Technologies Ltd ORIC BSE Aug 27, 2024 ₹303.50 6.92M ₹2.10B
―
PERSHING SQUARE INC. PS NYSE Apr 29, 2026 $50.00 40.52M $2.03B -34.60%

_

As Partners Co Ltd160AJPXApr 03, 2024 ¥1,920.00 1.10M ¥2.00B 1.25%
―

L is B Corp 145A JPX Mar 25, 2024 ¥1,190.00 1.68M ¥2.00B -35.71%
―
Fervo Energy Co FRVO NASDAQ Global Select May 13, 2026 $27.00 70.00M $1.89B11.37%

-

Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.BXDCNYSEMay 14, 2026 $20.00 87.50M $1.75B7.50%
-




just a few of the 851 on the list they all got free money to play with and they toss darts hoping to get a bullseye.

I don't have Elon Musk's experience with capitalism, but SpaceX's divisions and subsidiaries look interesting from a future technology perspective.
US presidents change, but Elon Musk and his companies receive massive government support.

Now I'll tell you about capitalism in Russia. With Bitcoin's current price level, mining companies are losing money. Therefore, Russian authorities are preparing to ban mining in Moscow and the surrounding region. Official miners there consume over 1 gigawatt per hour, but there are also many illegal miners. So the government is telling miners that if you don't pay taxes, we'll give that electricity to more profitable businesses.

So your $ guide lines are vastly different from "free" world ipo created money
guidelines.

In some ways saner and realistic.

BTW I am in my guide lines more like yours.

As I can not make IPO money