Trump, Maduro, and... Bitcoin!

[Kelward]

Questions for discussion:
- What scenarios do you anticipate?
- What impact will they have on the crypto market and Bitcoin?

There have always been seized Bitcoin and a lot that Satoshi hasn't moved including the ones that are being held be institutions still the market is active. I think that if the US were to seize Venezuela's Bitcoin asset it would create more scarcity in the market, and what different is it from the many seized Bitcoin by the US. Bitcoin market has grown huge and except up to 540% to 50%  of Bitcoin in circulation are seized I don't think that their impact will be felt so much. When we can worry is if that number of Bitcoin were to be dumped on the market, it will create a major FUD which can crash the market.

[Ultegra134]

I remember the peak of btc in 2018 was around 20000 USD per BTC, or almost 20000 USD. If that's where they have saved, they can really save a lot. But 600000 pcs seems hard to believe because the price was not very low back then. Maybe it was possible if they saved around 2015-2016, because that was the year when Bitcoin was very cheap. I also want to know how they found out the exact amount right away. It's their secret reserve. The US intel is very good at getting exact news right away. But I have doubts about the numbers given, and maybe they just said that to make their citizens angrier with their president, because the more people revolt, the more it will favor the US, and the faster it will control the country of Venezuela.

Certainly, the number sounds extravagant, especially for an economy like Venezuela, but still even though the country's economy was in a dire state, doesn't mean that its corrupt politicians weren't making sure they have money for another 10 lives. $20,000 was the peak price in 2018, what about the average price? If we try to come up with a number, just like we'd do when DCAing, I'm sure it'll be quite lower. Even if what been mentioned here is true, the likelihood of U.S.A finding (and recovering) those Bitcoins that are likely scattered among numerous wallets and mixers are slim.

[Cheema02]

I believe people are over-estimating the possible holdings of this country (Venezuela) when comes to Bitcoin.
The regime here used their mining power and some secret mining facilities in order to get Bitcoin and store it as part of the theft against the nation, but Venezuela does not have any figure close to 3 percent of the circulating supply of Bitcoin. It is quite unrealistic, at maximum we would only have some thousands of Bitcoins and those would be in private wallets controlled by corrupt politicians, they are not part of the national treasury.

Your point is very solid and its true that Venezuela have almost 3% of Bitcoins supply chain but this chain is not supported by verifiable data. also the government is seemed to operationally for mining Bitcoins and run secret facilities through which may by Bitcoins are obtaining over the years Venezuela can accumulating a few thousand Bitcoins but the shocking thing is that the same Bitcoins likely stored privately which is in hand of courrepted people and organization so they can not considered as an official reserves. If in real time Venezuela has thousands Bitcoins than it would be stronger. If we don't have information about it than we should be treated as speculative than fact.

[Cookdata]

Your point is very solid and its true that Venezuela have almost 3% of Bitcoins supply chain but this chain is not supported by verifiable data. also the government is seemed to operationally for mining Bitcoins and run secret facilities through which may by Bitcoins are obtaining over the years Venezuela can accumulating a few thousand Bitcoins but the shocking thing is that the same Bitcoins likely stored privately which is in hand of courrepted people and organization so they can not considered as an official reserves. If in real time Venezuela has thousands Bitcoins than it would be stronger. If we don't have information about it than we should be treated as speculative than fact.

3% is actually reasonable for Venezuela to hold considering the amount of money they make from crude oil sells and also the confirmation of wallet address with USDT that belongs to Venezuela for oil sell. However, I'm not bother about all of this investigation. Maduros stole money and he is corrupt, he need to be well investigated and any resources stolen through crude oil must be return to the country for the benefits of the common people and the nation.

However, the interest is not what I don't approve. We need some answers with this reserve if it belong to the country treasure reserve or it's a personal reserve. If Maduros has it and refused to let the world knows then it might be for privacy reason. There is nothing wrong in buying Bitcoin and be silent about it, don't be surprised that we have more countries that has Bitcoin reserve but can't speak because of the conflict of interest just the way Venezuela might not want to be involved with crude oil politics.

[DrBeer]

If those 600,000 bitcoins are truly Venezuela's national asset reserves, then it's a little hard to understand. Why would the government collect so many bitcoins when its citizens are facing so many economic problems? Even when we look at the country's inflation data, I personally can't believe the inflation rate there, which is not in the hundreds or thousands of percent, but even higher than that.

However, is there any news confirming that it belongs to the state or is it actually owned by the president? It seems unclear at this point. But if those assets are indeed seized by the US, it would certainly shake the bitcoin market. Because 600,000 bitcoins is not a small amount. It is close to the bitcoin assets owned by Microstrategy.   

The problem is that these assets do not belong to the PEOPLE of Venezuela, but have been appropriated by Maduro personally for himself and his inner circle.
 As I mentioned above, there are sufficient grounds to believe that since 2018, numerous illegal transactions have been carried out to sell the oil, the proceeds from which were then converted into bitcoins through front men. These assets ended up in Maduro's pocket, not in the pockets of the country's population or any state funds.

[Smack That Ace]

I think more than the oil Venezuela has, is the Bitcoin and crypto asset that the U S is after, just to hold in their own strategic reserve and remove that amount from the supply chain for decades to come.
This might just be a forced liquidation in right terms and another scenario is that the seized Bitcoin can be sold to pay off Venezuela's creditors and such a volume might pose a potential severe market crash for the Bitcoin market.

Only if the pass phrases is ever found because I believe the phrases aren't in the hands of one person because it might just be one of Venezuela's biggest secret to unmask yet.

I know we are all Bitcoin investors and we always put it first, considering it the most important thing. But if we are objective and look at the bigger picture of the global economy and politic. Bitcoin is not currently a major concern or a significant enough factor for the US to include it on its geopolitical agenda, let alone launch a war over it. Bitcoin has not yet reached the stage where the whole world falls into conflict solely to compete for it.

Everything the US is doing, from its intervention in Venezuela to its upcoming actions in Greenland or Iran, is aimed at controlling oil, sea lane, geostrategic locations, and energy supply chain. These are strategic assets for reshaping their superpower status and for containing China.

IMO, if Venezuela actually possesses that bitcoin and the US attempts to seize it. It is just a coincidence because we all know the nature of the US, they will take everything from that country and treat it as spoils of war.

[BALIK]

So far, many people are still naive enough to and believe that what is happening in Venezuela is simply Trump fighting drug trafficking. Many people believe this is good for the Venezuelan people. Honestly, I can not understand what they are thinking when they say that.

Update: Not only that, the US even demanded that Venezuela sever ties with China, Russia, and Iran. At the same time, they established exclusive partnerships with the US in the production and export of oil.

And this is what they call democracy and freedom

The US media brainwashed them.
It is not rocket science. Everyone should understand why Trump kidnapped Maduro. The US wants the oil from Venezuela, and that's it. I would say it is not the US, but it is the Dicktator Trump. I think I have heard that he said "We don't need international laws", which is correct, actually. The International Court cannot do anything against the Dictator Trump. Do you think the US have the right to run Venezuela? Do they have rights over Venezuela's oil? The answer is, they do not. However, since the US is the most powerfull country, they are just doing whatever they want. World War 3 is loading.

Conversely, I believe that intervening in and controlling oil in Venezuela is one of the top priorities on the USs' agenda. Trump simply completed the unfinished part of their plan.

If this were just the Trump administration's own idea, the Democrats and Congress would have made a huge fuss about it already. But so far nothing seems to have happened. This suggests that both the intervention in Venezuela and the idea of ​​annexing Greenland were meticulously planned in advance.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/07/politics/us-greenland-trump-denmark-history-hnk?
https://apnews.com/article/us-greenland-denmark-history-trump-b5e10babd57ae8ab4069e52df09d91df?

[God Of Thunder]

Conversely, I believe that intervening in and controlling oil in Venezuela is one of the top priorities on the USs' agenda. Trump simply completed the unfinished part of their plan.

If this were just the Trump administration's own idea, the Democrats and Congress would have made a huge fuss about it already. But so far nothing seems to have happened. This suggests that both the intervention in Venezuela and the idea of ​​annexing Greenland were meticulously planned in advance.

Yeah. I have heard that Trump isn't the only president who has expressed interest to acquiring Greenland. Trump even wanted to buy Greenland in his previous term. But long before that, other presidents were also interested to taking over Greenland. As for the Venezuela case, I think all the political parties in the US agree with Trump. I haven't seen anything negative about Trump from other U.S. political parties. So you are probably right about it.

[Rabata]

Questions for discussion:
- What scenarios do you anticipate?
- What impact will they have on the crypto market and Bitcoin?

All of this is still just anticipation that I don't think has any basis. Because various kinds of false allegations can be made to bring a country under control. There is no evidence yet that the country has invested the money from sales oil and buy Bitcoin. However, if such speculation is true, then that Bitcoin can be seized. And that seized money will be used for the US Reserve. 3% of the total Bitcoin circulating supply is certainly not less. For this reason, the US government will definitely pay special attention to that. However, if this Bitcoin is deposited with someone, then it is easy to understand that the holding will definitely be long-term. Venezuela will not bring that Bitcoin out quickly. Again, if the US government takes control of it, they will also hold it for the long term.

[justdimin]

There have always been seized Bitcoin and a lot that Satoshi hasn't moved including the ones that are being held be institutions still the market is active. I think that if the US were to seize Venezuela's Bitcoin asset it would create more scarcity in the market, and what different is it from the many seized Bitcoin by the US. Bitcoin market has grown huge and except up to 540% to 50%  of Bitcoin in circulation are seized I don't think that their impact will be felt so much. When we can worry is if that number of Bitcoin were to be dumped on the market, it will create a major FUD which can crash the market.

While I still think there were no bitcoins seized by any of this maduro or any government official ones etc, and I think that's a lie, in case that it's even true (it's not) it's a good thing for us. USA is not selling bitcoins, whatever they seize, before today, they just saved it and put it aside and they will do the same in this case as well.

While I know this is just media pumping and nothing more, the fact that they would seize it means that they are going to take more out of the market and just keep hold of it so the price of bitcoin will rise from that. But the impact won't be quick, it's going to be long term, and with low liquidity the volatility of the price could go up a lot more because there will be less  to buy and sell.

[DrBeer]

Questions for discussion:
- What scenarios do you anticipate?
- What impact will they have on the crypto market and Bitcoin?

All of this is still just anticipation that I don't think has any basis. Because various kinds of false allegations can be made to bring a country under control. There is no evidence yet that the country has invested the money from sales oil and buy Bitcoin. However, if such speculation is true, then that Bitcoin can be seized. And that seized money will be used for the US Reserve. 3% of the total Bitcoin circulating supply is certainly not less. For this reason, the US government will definitely pay special attention to that. However, if this Bitcoin is deposited with someone, then it is easy to understand that the holding will definitely be long-term. Venezuela will not bring that Bitcoin out quickly. Again, if the US government takes control of it, they will also hold it for the long term.

I agree that there is no real evidence yet—it's all just speculation or theory. But as recent years have shown, many immoral and criminal regimes use cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions, conceal and appropriate huge assets obtained at the expense of the countries they rule.   Therefore, let's wait and see how this all ends, and where these bitcoins stolen from the Venezuelan people will “appear.”

[WillyAp]

I know we are all Bitcoin investors and we always put it first, considering it the most important thing.

hodling is not investing.
If you wish to know more how bitcoin was done
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/04/20/bitcoin-miners-trapped-in-alleged-20-billion-corruption-scheme-in-venezuela/

[Iranus]

While I still think there were no bitcoins seized by any of this maduro or any government official ones etc, and I think that's a lie, in case that it's even true (it's not) it's a good thing for us. USA is not selling bitcoins, whatever they seize, before today, they just saved it and put it aside and they will do the same in this case as well.

While I know this is just media pumping and nothing more, the fact that they would seize it means that they are going to take more out of the market and just keep hold of it so the price of bitcoin will rise from that. But the impact won't be quick, it's going to be long term, and with low liquidity the volatility of the price could go up a lot more because there will be less  to buy and sell.

It should be noted that the US has no intention of selling any bitcoin under the Trump administration. However, they never said they would never sell Bitcoin in the future, nor did they say that policy would be maintained permanently under succeeding administration. Therefore, the US holding a large portion of the bitcoin supply is not a good thing in the long run.

I want to reiterate that the US strategic bitcoin reserve is merely an executive order, not a "Act" That means they can sell it whenever they want.