The $97K Fakeout: Why Bitcoin’s Path to $100K is Blocked

[philipma1957]

@philipma1957. Why are you triggered? I am not a bear agenda person, I am a reality person. If you remember from the information I was sharing before, I was very much bullish on bitcoin because I have always speculated that government support from America will arrive. It arrived, however, we have witnessed the weakest pump compared to the pumps of before. Why is this?

We might be witnessing the beginning of the bear market and you say that trillions of inflows from silver and gold profits will arrive in bitcoin? Hheheheh this is hopium, I reckon. Those traders will wait for a better entry similar that they have waited for a better entry on silver and gold from years before.

Like I said bearish bias.


Tell me where to park the 18 trillion in profits.

It is not hoping it all based on past performance of metals .

Unless you want to argue silver just goes up past 180 bucks an oz and gold goes to 8000 an Oz.

Now maybe the world goes gold and silver 2x from today's number.

[goldkingcoiner]

A fakeout? Maybe.

But Bitcoin is headed beyond $100K and the lack of selling pressure is making me quite confident on this.

Bears are hoping on a bubble to pop. Meanwhile the yearly candles as well as the 2022 bear trap have been bullish signals. We see a strong support and careful pumps, as if though testing a trap... Once sentiment turns into greed rather than fear, we will see an interesting development.

The question is where is the next ceiling? 200K? 300K?




 

[Alpen]

@Alpen. It also appears that the weaknesses are appearing on the support of the government on the cryptospace. The politicians that are arguing on this market structure bill and the clarity act are closing all advantages for the companies in the cryptospace to maintain the advantage of the banks.

I predict that if these bills are signed into law, they might be considered a failure and this might cause another big dump on bitcoin and the whole cryptospace. It will be sell the rumor and sell the news hehehehehehehe.



Coinbase’s (COIN) decision to walk away from the U.S. Senate's crypto market structure bill could spell the end of any meaningful legislation this Congress, according to financial policy analyst Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen.

“We see this as potentially derailing market structure legislation in this Congress,” Seiberg wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. He said the move is often a sign that backers believe a bill is no longer fixable through negotiation. “We view delay as negative for crypto and positive for banks,” Seiberg added.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/01/14/coinbase-pulled-support-for-key-crypto-bill-here-s-what-it-means-for-the-industry

As I see it, we are witnessing a real tug-of-war between the crypto industry and the banking sector. I wonder if the U.S. Senate is even capable of passing a crypto regulation bill at this point. Beyond the economic war, there’s an intense political struggle between Democrats and Republicans that makes any consensus seem unlikely.

[bbc.reporter]

@philipma1957. Why are you triggered? I am not a bear agenda person, I am a reality person. If you remember from the information I was sharing before, I was very much bullish on bitcoin because I have always speculated that government support from America will arrive. It arrived, however, we have witnessed the weakest pump compared to the pumps of before. Why is this?

We might be witnessing the beginning of the bear market and you say that trillions of inflows from silver and gold profits will arrive in bitcoin? Hheheheh this is hopium, I reckon. Those traders will wait for a better entry similar that they have waited for a better entry on silver and gold from years before.

Like I said bearish bias.


Tell me where to park the 18 trillion in profits.

It is not hoping it all based on past performance of metals .

Unless you want to argue silver just goes up past 180 bucks an oz and gold goes to 8000 an Oz.

Now maybe the world goes gold and silver 2x from today's number.

Are you saying that I am very much mistaken on assessing that bitcoin might be bearish this year and that you are very much correct that bitcoin will pump to another all time high this year?

Why are you triggered if someone will disagree on your bullish hopium and storyline? Is your bullish storyline a certainty? Is it not being revealed in your mind that if silver and gold markets will begin dumping in panic, this might cause another dump on the cryptospace market also?

We will wait for this hehehehehhe. There might also be the AI bubble pop.

[aylabadia05]

<snip>

But if we keep on just bouncing around $90k'ish and moving sideways, then it means that there are no movement, and there are a constant battle inside between buyers and sellers. So let's see what awaits us in the remaining two weeks of this month.

Frequently scrolling through your social media feed can increase uncertainty. Or frequently visiting the market just to look at price charts can have a negative effect.

The chart is starting to move sideways again from $95k. As I mentioned, I hesitate to say the sideways era is over because there hasn't been a significant response yet that would cause the chart to change based on people's actions.
We just want our target to be reached in due time. But without taking action that impacts the price chart, change is inevitable—even if it's just a small step. Bitcoin has never let us down. Trust it?

[As-Soon-As]

The price of Bitcoin will rise and there is a high possibility of touching $100k again. There are many reasons for the increase in the price of Bitcoin at the present time, but the price of Bitcoin has not increased based on these few reasons alone. Different people are holding Bitcoin for a long time and there are a lot of transactions in Bitcoin, Bitcoin is gaining wide popularity all over the world, due to which there is a huge demand for Bitcoin. Due to these positive aspects, the price of Bitcoin is likely to increase gradually.

[Moreno233]

I have also been wondering while Bitcoin have refused to reach $100k again after it dipped below it several months ago. There have been many attempts by Bitcoin to break that $100k resistance but all of that failed and that is what I find very difficult to understand even when there were supporting fundamentals. I think what is happening is classical market manipulation, the market is being manipulated for whatever reason. Maybe the market is really testing the patience of those who are waiting to sell at $100k thinking that market is entering bear season this year.

[philipma1957]

I have been annoyed with the titling that bbc.reporter uses for his threads.


but to defend his bearishness in this thread here is the single best hard evidence I can find.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5570168.msg66270967#msg66270967
______________________________________________________________

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   932523  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.6413%  (1132 / 1196.09 expected, 64.09 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   148258433855481.3                           
Current Difficulty:   146472570619930.8                           
Next Difficulty:   between 138760272043839 and 140179445049803
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.2654% and -4.2965%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2026 at 2:53 AM  (-1.2046%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 6:15 PM  (in 6d 8h 1m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 9:55 PM  (in 6d 11h 40m 31s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 15h 22m 0s and 14d 19h 1m 28s

this is the best evidence that thing may turn down and not up.

why the drop in hash when price has past 90k?

it could be ai growth
it could be a leading indicator of a large drop in BTC price.

it could be a clever manipulation to drop BTC price before they pump it late in 2026 .

[Ndabagi01]

The options skew remains around 4%, showing sustained demand for downside protection and doubt about any further rise above $100,000. The bulls didn't catch the bears off guard. The price rise only triggered about $370 million in short liquidations. Many sell orders also had their stop-loss levels raised, which hints at an expectation of an imminent BTC drop.

The nature of the market is not convincing enough to actually show the real direction of the market even though the market is showing a more movement towards the bearish market than the bullish trend. A fake out may have actually happened because the momentum to which the market broke to $97K makes an argumentative statement of where the market will go next. Everyone throws their opinion of the market but a more technical view of the market can clearly tell you where we should expect the direction of the market to go. I’m more bearish on Bitcoin now but when a bull eventually happens, we will align again and make the best out of the market.

[EFS]

Even if it can't break through right now, in my opinion every Bitcoin below 100k is cheap. If you use this as a guideline, long-term planning becomes easier. This doesn't mean much for daily traders, but for those planning 5-10 years ahead, BTC can be bought at any price below 100k, it's cheap.

I wasn't expecting a rally this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens. With wars going on in many parts of the world, money is looking for a safe haven. Even if a small portion of the money flowing into precious metals moves into Bitcoin, that alone can prevent the price from falling. Maybe that's exactly what we're experiencing right now.

[STT]

Metals has no yield, it requires giant investment and is heavily reliant on energy costs and discovery.   Many mines are vulnerable to political turmoil in countries they reside in, there are lots of reasons why not to be afraid of a rise in metals.
  Its all part of the same game which is a probable decline in the dollar which peaked massively in overuse and far too much of a western bias when alot of growth exists outside of the western economic system.    I think gold going to five figures is quite likely to happen, its not a recent prediction and it might not occur within five years but it will be amazing when it gets there as its so incredibly high people dont believe it.
  Just like BTC being this high is beyond belief, BTC at 100k was just a meme yet now people complaining because we sold off some.

There is no wall built before 100k, its a door the hinges are a bit rusty it might need some time to free up that seemingly stuck door but we'll be above 100k again pretty sure

[As-Soon-As]

The longer you wait to buy Bitcoin, the more expensive it will be for you, because at any time the Bitcoin price is more likely to rise but the Bitcoin price is less likely to fall. Because I think the Bitcoin price is much cheaper below $100k and it is easier for investors to invest. Those who will hold Bitcoin for a long time and hold more Bitcoin can create the possibility of buying Bitcoin in the market at any time and under any circumstances.
However, you should not plan to invest according to the Bitcoin price, but rather plan to hold Bitcoin according to the long term, then it will be the best.

[pawel7777]

Some are still expecting a new, much higher ATH, quoting that the usual Bitcoin peak indicators have not yet shown that the market is overheated, but this can be deceptive.
If we look at (probably) the most popular metric, CBBI index, which itself combines 9 different metrics, we will see that the actual ATH of the 2021 cycle (the 2nd peak) also didn't show much signs of "overheating", with the CBBI index value of only 81. In the current cycle, the index already went up to 83 (including at the time the current ATH was reached). So it's not by any mean a guarantee that it has to go close to 100 this cycle.



This doesn't mean that we can't go up anymore. But if we do go up, it probably won't be due to the same factors that we had in the past cycles. If we believe in the repetition of historical patterns, then all signs point to the bull market being over.

[Zanab247]

I don't think this current move of the price of BTC will make it to hit $100k, because there are still some signs that will make the price to fall down below $60k to allow some people to buy and add to their BTC. Seen the recent moved of the price of BTC make me to doubt if the $100k will still happen in this month of January, because we have experienced that price last two months and early last month but we have not experience $100k in this month of January to show that bear season is not far from investors.

I guess this $97k will be the highest in this new year before the price of BTC will switch to bear market where people will start using what they can afford to lose in BTC to buy and hodl for long years.

[philipma1957]

I don't think this current move of the price of BTC will make it to hit $100k, because there are still some signs that will make the price to fall down below $60k to allow some people to buy and add to their BTC. Seen the recent moved of the price of BTC make me to doubt if the $100k will still happen in this month of January, because we have experienced that price last two months and early last month but we have not experience $100k in this month of January to show that bear season is not far from investors.

I guess this $97k will be the highest in this new year before the price of BTC will switch to bear market where people will start using what they can afford to lose in BTC to buy and hodl for long years.

hey if it falls to 60k it is proof it is simply a toy for big people to pump and dump

which it could be.

at some point it needs to leave the 75-80% drop/crash/bear issues it has had.

1300 in 2013
 99 or so in 2014 over 90%

19500 in  2017
   3900 in 2018 about 80% this was better than cycle before

69000 in 2021
 15900 in 2022 about 77% this was better than cycle before

126000 in  2025
   81000 in 2025 about 36% this is better than ever but who know how low it goes.

now if we recover and 81k in Nov 2025 was it we have a new an improved investment product for sure.

but if we drop to 50.4k it is a 60% drop which is a bit better than the 77% drop.

all the drops have improved

90% in 2014
80% in 2018 and covid flash crash in 2020
77% in 2022

36% so far this time. if we never go under 81k  again and we are going up as I type to a 2026 ATH things would be really good.

remember there is about 18trillion in silver and gold profits for 2025 sitting in silver and gold as I type

btc only needs 2 trillion of that for 2026 to be at 190k which would be very sweet.

silver and gold never went up 18trillion in a year until 2025


So BTC can go up 2 trillion in 2026

Just shift a little of the gold and silver profit to it this year.

10% means 190k for BTC
20% means 285k for BTC