Bitcoin is Primed for a Shutdown Rally

[Alpen]

@Alpen. However, how sustainable will be this rally after the shutdown has occurred? The rally that we have witnessed on the last shutdown was on a different mood on the market. Everyone was still very much wishfully waiting for the effect of the change of policy in America. But this year, it appears that we should begin to accept the storyline that is something similar to your other thread. Bitcoin for this year might have lost the allure of investors.

I said from the start that the rally wouldn’t be sustainable. A prolonged U.S. government shutdown is negative for the global economy. Real growth for Bitcoin is only possible with positive developments: peace worldwide, Trump being impeached, and the fall of authoritarian regimes around the world. But that’s unrealistic. Right now, we are closer to nuclear war than to peace.

[free-bit.co.in]

According to the latest news, the Democratic and Republican parties have finalized a deal, which means the government will not have to shut down. Therefore, I think you need to find another reason to help bitcoin  rise.   

Honestly, I do not know if there will be any news big enough to cause Bitcoin to reverse and return to the $100k. But with the Middle East cauldron heating up more than ever and war potentially breaking out at any moment. I think we should prepare for a worse case scenario.

By the way, Bitcoin also dropped below $83k and at one point fell to $81k today.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/29/us/trump-news

[coolcoinz]

I don't think so, there will be no price reaction for Bitcoin this time, which is related with government shutdown in the United States.
Take note that we are already down 30% from the all-time high within 4 months. So for me, your $100,000 target seems still impossible in condition of Bitcoin, just remember what happened recently when we pumped around $95,000 and just got rejected, that's why we are back again below $90,000.

We were not rejected. You're talking like it all happened automatically because there was no one to buy at that level so the price came back to a lower point.
In reality the markets crashed because of the US president who in his typical manner started to threaten other countries.

The price of bitcoin, just like the prices of many other things right now aren't acting on logic but manipulation, panic and chaos. Just like gold 10 days ago was at 4.6k then went to 5.8k and now is down to 4.5k, so it went up 20% and is now down 20% all in less than 2 weeks! This is supposed to be one of the most stable investments, so no wonder bitcoin is reacting to this.

IMO there's very little demand needed for bitcoin to go back to $100k. Its market cap is so small that if just 1% the money that is being played at gold moved to bitcoin we'd be at a new ATH.

[khiholangkang]

According to the latest news, the Democratic and Republican parties have finalized a deal, which means the government will not have to shut down. Therefore, I think you need to find another reason to help bitcoin  rise.   

Honestly, I do not know if there will be any news big enough to cause Bitcoin to reverse and return to the $100k. But with the Middle East cauldron heating up more than ever and war potentially breaking out at any moment. I think we should prepare for a worse case scenario.

By the way, Bitcoin also dropped below $83k and at one point fell to $81k today.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/29/us/trump-news

Yes, I also just read that the government does not need to be closed in this matter, maybe because the problem is not that big and can still be solved so the Democratic Party initiated this, too often being closed will also be very dangerous for political stability and government influence in the US, it is dangerous and especially on financial market indices such as stocks and others, especially Bitcoin which is generally affected by US government actions like this, as long as it still holds at $ 80k, the bad thing is that at $ 78k it should still be safe but if it goes beyond that limit I will be very doubtful about the situation in the next few days, but if it can still be maintained it will face sideways in the area that I have drawn in general until waiting for confirmation that demand will strengthen again on Bitcoin.

[tygeade]

Assuming the cycle just hitting the same time is the wrong move. That's what Americans do, they think the world revolves around them and for that reason they also think bitcoin moves because of them too. They thought because trump won elections the price went up, and they thought because of tariffs it went down, and now they think because of shutdown it will go up.

Believe me, none of us are doing anything because of Americans, it's just that we have a four year cycle that we follow, and that is why there are moves. Could it go up? Maybe ab it, for sure, because it's market movement, but not going to be big deal, and would be temporary at best for sure.

[Johnlomape]

Analysts are expecting a new government shutdown this Friday, with an 80% probability. Democrats will likely derail the budget approval in Congress again, this time due to events in Minneapolis.

The last shutdown is remembered for two things: its duration—it lasted 41 days—and for Bitcoin hitting an all-time high.

I've overlaid the BTC rally from the October shutdown onto the current chart. Just like back then, it was preceded by a correction and a long crypto market sideways period. Just like then and now, the bulls started building positions early, and Bitcoin's rise has already begun.



I expect a breakout above $100K. The rally will be prolonged at first but will end with a sharp drop if the budget isn't passed for a long time. Given the size of US debt and the country's influence on the global economy, a prolonged shutdown will hurt all markets.

Ths market is not really favourable for the traders and those that are opportunistic investors that are always active trying to make small profit from the market immediately price goes up or down. There are traders that like taking opportunity that will favour them whether the price of Bitcoin is either going down or going up.  Although those that are traders have broader views about the entire  crypto market that someone that is only after buying and holding with no attempt to trade. We need to continue hoping for the influence of the United States in the crypto market not to crumble the entire financial market.

[JeffBrad12]

According to the latest news, the Democratic and Republican parties have finalized a deal, which means the government will not have to shut down. Therefore, I think you need to find another reason to help bitcoin  rise.  

Honestly, I do not know if there will be any news big enough to cause Bitcoin to reverse and return to the $100k. But with the Middle East cauldron heating up more than ever and war potentially breaking out at any moment. I think we should prepare for a worse case scenario.

By the way, Bitcoin also dropped below $83k and at one point fell to $81k today.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/29/us/trump-news

Another reason for bitcoin rise if the shutdown is invalidated which is pretty obvious would be Trump's recent announcement of new Fed chair and since Trump is pretty insistence on making Jerome Powell to cut the interest rate.
I bet another interest cut is near and will be a good news for stock and crypto. Though at this point, we're just speculating but this could be very impactful if Trump decided to push another interest cut.

The market will be interesting again very soon.

[free-bit.co.in]

Another reason for bitcoin rise if the shutdown is invalidated which is pretty obvious would be Trump's recent announcement of new Fed chair and since Trump is pretty insistence on making Jerome Powell to cut the interest rate.
I bet another interest cut is near and will be a good news for stock and crypto. Though at this point, we're just speculating but this could be very impactful if Trump decided to push another interest cut.

The market will be interesting again very soon.

As far as I remember, we have had 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, and the price of Bitcoin hasnt increased after each one. Since then, I have not cared about interest rates anymore

Furthermore, Powell's term will end in May 2026, meaning there are still more than 4 months before Kevin Warsh is appointed. And remember that interest rate cut and other Fed policies are decided by voting, not unilaterally by the Fed Chair. Therefore, it is still too early to talk about lowering interest rates at this time.

[LogitechMouse]

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I expect a breakout above $100K. The rally will be prolonged at first but will end with a sharp drop if the budget isn't passed for a long time. Given the size of US debt and the country's influence on the global economy, a prolonged shutdown will hurt all markets.

The government shutdown has been confirmed already, and it's weekend so we don't see any significant moves towards the market since there's not that much volume during the weekends.

I understand the optimism, but right now, I don't see Bitcoin reaching as high as $100,000 anymore after the rejection on it a few days ago where it only went to as high as $98,000 before it reversed towards the downwards. Because of that, I don't see Bitcoin reaching $100,000 anymore at least this year, but I could be wrong just like my previous 10 predictions. Point is, the past performance of Bitcoin doesn't mean it will be the same this time. We might've seen an increase in price in Bitcoin during the first shutdown, but we might see a different move this time.

While there are still some investors that are still optimistic towards the market, I'm looking at the opposite already that's why I converted my Bitcoin into stablecoins already. I still believe that the 4-year cycle is still intact and if that's the case then 2026 will be the year where the bear market starts. We just don't know when, but it might happen anytime soon so just be ready folks.

[Cryptohygenic]

I don't think so, there will be no price reaction for Bitcoin this time, which is related with government shutdown in the United States.
Take note that we are already down 30% from the all-time high within 4 months. So for me, your $100,000 target seems still impossible in condition of Bitcoin, just remember what happened recently when we pumped around $95,000 and just got rejected, that's why we are back again below $90,000.

Our opinions on bitcoin price predictions should not be something to take in too serious because in matter of times it usually turns out the unexpected. That is where we just get it wrong to think the ordinary economy and political news activities we hears has all the keys to predict the volatility.
30% lost couple with no significant whether we can still see further bullishness to see further Ath literally seems impossible but hold, $ir was less than $3,000 to fit-in the that figure $100,000 in just two weeks ago.

[STT]

Not sure about primed but I can see how it might recover from here and do far better then expected.  Not all prices are equal or even accurate, I dont especially believe in a downside move here more a range bound price which is neutral.

Theres a pin candle earlier today which is far higher volume then the rest of the month or even in December.  Its significant probably and its showing reversal in a small way; however just a small move has to be confirmed and I think during the working week this week that might happen.  Alongside news it might register for alot more and move somewhere.
   I'll believe it better when we trade and hold above 86k which is the weekly average and a pretty low mark to achieve imo.