The myths and reality about tipsters

[dimonstration]

I feel like anyone can get on a hot streak now n then, but eventually get cocky n can't hit water if they fell out of a boat. So if you're following a tipster, don't start betting with them until their hot streak comes IMO. Hard to judge right? Well wait til they hit 3 or 4 in a row and follow for games 5 n 6 to see how you do.

There's so many tipsters out there is another issue, then there's the paid tipsters. I think those are the worst because as the OP said, "you don't know if tommorow or 2 months from now he won't go fully retard and sprout only non-sense".

I call this testing the water and I frequently doing this on my blackjack strategy before I start increasing my bet per to ride my hot streak.

I believe too that everyone has this kind of streak which I like the idea to apply this when copying to someone bet or tipster. Some gambler are too excited to ride thinking that it’s a guaranteed win.

But right now, finding the legit tipster is the main challenge. 

[stompix]

So if you're following a tipster, don't start betting with them until their hot streak comes IMO.

So isn't this a gambler's fallacy?
Since professional tipsters make daily bets trying to beat the average, waiting for a moment after x losses or x wins will have just a random result anyhow.

Here's the thing. To get the same results as him, you would have to bet exactly the same way he does, which nobody does. It's true that if the tipster is good, legitimate, and you don't catch him on a bad streak, the trend will be to make a profit, but if a professional bettor and tipster makes 200 bets a week and you make 20 basing on his tips, your results may be very different from what he achieves.

But that doesn't make him inaccurate, nor does it make him a bad tipster, it's you that's the problem!

The actual (real!) problem with tipsters in my case (horse racing) are the odds, the guys usually make their tips when the odds come in, then the market takes over and when you're opening the site you see different numbers as odds are far more volatile than in other sports.
Take the last day Newcastle winner Abduction, it started the day at 25:1, it was 14:1 when the race started! At $10 that's $110 even with the right tip but bad timing.

[Outhue]

Tipsters are more closer to winning than those who aren't, but unfortunately they also lose their bets too, I don't have any reasons to be a tipster because I don't gamble to make money by all means, been a tipster means turning gambling into a business, that's too much for me as gambling was never meant to be taken this seriously.

I don't bother myself with "must win", I just want some good time spent, it is not a must for me to make money when gambling and this is why I don't always gamble, I have my business and other ways of making money, gambling isn't one of them, if I don't have spare money for gambling I won't gamble, because it's certain that I will lose the money.

[Rashlyowl]

I never believe in tipsters, they are just people who make analysis from surface data, we can also do the same as them, just spend time & we will get it. I can remember exactly the time when I followed what the tipsters said in their posts, out of the 10 matches they gave insight on, only 2 matches were won, that was a total loss in my opinion.

With the bad experiences I had with tipsters, I started choosing bets with the smallest odds, it didn't matter how small they were as long as I had a big chance. In fact, I make money from it, well at least so far it's still profitable.

[libert19]

As always, I open a topic when I'm fed up with thousands of nonsensical posts about a subject

I read title. I was like, another post about tipsters, then I open thread, and I realize it's from the great Stompix, and I thought, this should be worth it and well it was...decent, I rate your comedic posts better.

...You see, odds when released are made by people, it doesn't matter what algorithm you have, the data for it is made and inserted by human beings, there is no godlike creature of universal knowledge creating those bets, all you have to do /s is just be better than those who make the odd and take advantage of the odds!

I liked this point though.


I don't follow any tipsters, and I don't think I ever will.

[Eternad]

I never believe in tipsters, they are just people who make analysis from surface data, we can also do the same as them, just spend time & we will get it. I can remember exactly the time when I followed what the tipsters said in their posts, out of the 10 matches they gave insight on, only 2 matches were won, that was a total loss in my opinion.

A good tipster analyze data much deeper compared to the typical H2H analysis and so on. They carefully analyze even the individual players performance and other factors which is time consuming for average user.

If you are just a casual bettor, you will have no time on this kind of deeper analysis. Not all tipster are scam there’s still some that exist but in my opinion it’s not worth it to follow if you just want to have fun betting.

It’s more fun to DIY analysis.

[Betwrong]

~
4) There are no 100% accurate tipsters! True!
Real tipsters are losing bets too, it's the 5-10% difference between what you lose and what you make that differentiates between a good tipster and a bad one!

Great post overall, but I especially like this part. This is so true, and it seems to me that it relates to professional poker too: The difference between a good and a bad poker player is that a good one wins 10% more often. It’s impossible to be winning all the time, no matter how good you are.

I liked these parts too: "you don't have to believe the guy, you have to believe hard numbers", "you just have to beat the other guys!"

[wozzek23]

A good tipster analyze data much deeper compared to the typical H2H analysis and so on. They carefully analyze even the individual players performance and other factors which is time consuming for average user.

If you are just a casual bettor, you will have no time on this kind of deeper analysis. Not all tipster are scam there’s still some that exist but in my opinion it’s not worth it to follow if you just want to have fun betting.

It’s more fun to DIY analysis.

Mostly tipsters always rely on data and track record because they have best options to keep themselves fit in this while they are having no other way to check things and having positive about giving their own tips and this always works for people those wants to be quick rich.

If someone wants to have better results always need to be working on for few things which will help him for taking better results and good profiting in the end. Check data and H2H things are always useful but with them having players analyses and checking their performance definitely will provide better view. I agree that all tipsters are never been scamming because many are doing good job while things are still been never staying on one level forever.

[Oasisman]

Here's the thing. To get the same results as him, you would have to bet exactly the same way he does, which nobody does. It's true that if the tipster is good, legitimate, and you don't catch him on a bad streak, the trend will be to make a profit, but if a professional bettor and tipster makes 200 bets a week and you make 20 basing on his tips, your results may be very different from what he achieves.

But that doesn't make him inaccurate, nor does it make him a bad tipster, it's you that's the problem

Yeah, I guess people can see his betting history, right? but timing is still a big issue. Matching a tipster’s betting frequency and stake size isn’t easy. You’re basically waiting for the very next tip and need to act fast before the odds move. Especially if the tipster has a lot of followers.

For anyone cherry picking tips, it’s probably better not to follow blindly. Making some adjustments on your end, especially with staking and odds makes more sense than copying everything 100%.

[blomen]

why would i trust a tipster when i can do the job myself? if you think you're not good enough to bet based on your own ideas, you should stay away from betting anyway. it's not someone else's advice that will save you, it's your own choices. when you choose your bets on your own, at least you know who's responsible. when you take a tipster's advice and lose, you never blame yourself, but when you win, you'll consider yourself successful because you followed the right tipster.

they can publish their statistics on their own website and try to convince me that they “make money.” no one feels the need to share their own money making method with others. if tipsters could really make money, they would just stick to their own business.

[joeperry]

Does anyone still believe on tipster? Is there a lot of people believe in this? Personally, when I was new to gambling someone told me tipster were people that knows a fix match and give tips to people in exchange for money, lately I've learned that there are tipster who just basically give tips. Honestly, a lot of people claimed that they are tipster and they have good track record but they just basically doing statistical research and use data which is available freely by the way. Although, I realize lately that there are some people who share tips not for profit but they let people critic their analysis and actually I'm getting also new perspective in those kind of tips, I would rather use those in my analysis rather than just following their tips alone.

[Botnake]

he only part of your post I really agree with is that it’s possible to be profitable in sports betting.

When it comes to tipsters though, I still have my doubts. It’s hard enough to find a truly reliable one, and if someone actually has a real edge, chances are they won’t be cheap or affordable for most bettors.

Still, that alone already proves an important point. There are a lot of people here who believe sports betting is no different from slots or other pure house-edge games. Some even treat a sportsbook like a casino, which I think is just wrong. Sports betting isn’t guaranteed money, but it’s also not pure luck. There’s a difference, and a lot of folks seem to miss that.

[danherbias07]

Yes, I agree with all of that.

I believe they do exist. Those with in-depth knowledge of one sport or two can make the right prediction, though it's not 100%. Now, some have an insider who can tell who or what will win, and the odds are just sometimes a trap.
A regular sports bettor will have a hard time finding them, but I do think some have connections to reach them and be part of their group. I bet it's not free, and it's probably expensive, but the accuracy will be higher than just doing it ourselves or using other means.
Still, I do enjoy predicting games, and I feel better if a bet comes from my own analysis. The satisfaction of winning on your own is great.

[Hispo]

Of course legitimate tipsters exist, and there are ways to track their accuracy with cold hard numbers. That being said, I have always thought it was kind of silly how those legitimate tipsters go around internet and social media offering their slightly privileged information for the sake of clout.

If they would have a significantly higher accuracy rate than what they currently hold, they would rather not to share such tips and keep them to themselves, so they can profit further from it.

I don't follow any of those tipsters and I would not pay for tips.

[Slow death]

Of course legitimate tipsters exist, and there are ways to track their accuracy with cold hard numbers. That being said, I have always thought it was kind of silly how those legitimate tipsters go around internet and social media offering their slightly privileged information for the sake of clout.

If they would have a significantly higher accuracy rate than what they currently hold, they would rather not to share such tips and keep them to themselves, so they can profit further from it.

I don't follow any of those tipsters and I would not pay for tips.

Many of the tipsters I know charge a membership fee and make money from each person who signs up for their service. To convince people to use their service, they use games where the favorite has odds of @1.40 to @1.60 because they know that with this choice they will have more wins in the long run. However, their clients will suffer losses in the long run, but they won't realize it; they will only be focused on the number of wins they have.

[Davidvictorson]

There are tipsters who are legit and there are tipsters who are scams. The problem is that the scammer tipsters are more in numbers, they are the loudest on the internet, the easiest to get access to the cheapest compared with the legit ones. That’s one of my contributions to this thread. Another contribution is the second section which I agree to that, past track records doesn’t equate to future accuracy and those who cannot handle the pressure any are forced to dwell on their past records instead of trying to make efforts to improve themselves and by extension their accuracy. These are the ones that would later create telegram groups to attract people based on their past records instead of present records. And people will fall for them because of the slips.

[rachael9385]

There are tipsters that are actually legit and there are those that are fraudulent, personally I don't really want to find out if a tipster is legit or not because I don't rely on other people's predictions. One thing a lot of people need to know is that no one can predict sports games accurately not even the so called experts. it is better to learn how to predict and analyse sports by yourself.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

There are tipsters that are actually legit and there are those that are fraudulent, personally I don't really want to find out if a tipster is legit or not because I don't rely on other people's predictions. One thing a lot of people need to know is that no one can predict sports games accurately not even the so called experts. it is better to learn how to predict and analyse sports by yourself.

It's good to know that you don't rely on other people's prediction but I think if one have the available means, it doesn't hurt to want to know the so called experts and follow their predictions for a while and ascertain if indeed they are good in what they do or not, a knowledge like this could come in handy some time in the future.

But also yeah, the so called expert are same humans with one head like everyone else, what ever they know and has helped them to predict most matches correctly over the years is something any body else can learn as well, the only currency to pay might be to simply dedicate time to studying and research, nothing beats being at peace with oneself after losing money in a match which the person betted based on his own personal research and decision, for atleast, the person won't be blaming any body for his lose but himself.

[AmoreJaz]

There are tipsters that are actually legit and there are those that are fraudulent, personally I don't really want to find out if a tipster is legit or not because I don't rely on other people's predictions. One thing a lot of people need to know is that no one can predict sports games accurately not even the so called experts. it is better to learn how to predict and analyse sports by yourself.

Most tipsters are fraudulent because what I am thinking here is that if they are really doing good with their tips, they should already be exhausting its potential for their own gain. Why is it that they need to ask from other to join their group and later on ask for some compensation.
So yes, the reality for me is if the tipster is indeed very good with his tips, he will surely use it to his own benefit and not bother other people. He may ask for some funds from his close family or friends but not from strangers over the net. That is, if he knows that his tips are quite true and will happen.

[0x000369]

Yeah man, the Reptilian Overlods Mafia of Tipsters is manipulating the records and nobody has yet to find a clear case of that...

lol @stompix come on man

reptilian overlords manipulating records it ain't some grand conspiracy it's just how the game works for these "tipsters"

you think those "tracked records for decades" are somehow immune to editing or selective showcasing

i've seen every scam under the sun here since 2015 and the "legit tipster" is always the same song and dance

they make their money selling the dream not from actually being good at betting

the crypto space is full of these "signal groups" and "vip channels" same exact scam just with tokens instead of horse racing

always remember if they were so good at beating the odds they wouldn't be selling tips to you they'd be rich on their own bets