Supercycle or Shakeout?

[intrader]

I’ve been involved in crypto since 2014, so I’ve experienced several bull and bear markets. Still, I have to admit that the current situation feels more confusing than usual.
Just a few weeks ago at Davos, CZ spoke about the possibility of a “supercycle” in 2026, suggesting that institutional adoption and pro-crypto policies in the US could finally break the traditional 4-year cycle. According to this view, the market might enter a longer period of sustained growth instead of repeating the usual boom-and-bust pattern.
However, recent price action tells a different story. Bitcoin has dropped sharply from around $126k to near $60k in a very short time. Even CZ now appears to be more cautious about the supercycle narrative due to increasing FUD and macro uncertainty.
From my experience, the 4-year cycle has been the most consistent pattern in this market so far. But with ETFs, institutional capital, and government involvement, the structure of the market is clearly changing.
Do you think the traditional cycle is finally breaking down, or is this just a large shakeout before another major rally toward a possible 2026 supercycle?

[Biodom]

I’ve been involved in crypto since 2014, so I’ve experienced several bull and bear markets. Still, I have to admit that the current situation feels more confusing than usual.
Just a few weeks ago at Davos, CZ spoke about the possibility of a “supercycle” in 2026, suggesting that institutional adoption and pro-crypto policies in the US could finally break the traditional 4-year cycle. According to this view, the market might enter a longer period of sustained growth instead of repeating the usual boom-and-bust pattern.
However, recent price action tells a different story. Bitcoin has dropped sharply from around $126k to near $61k in a very short time. Even CZ now appears to be more cautious about the supercycle narrative due to increasing FUD and macro uncertainty.
From my experience, the 4-year cycle has been the most consistent pattern in this market so far. But with ETFs, institutional capital, and government involvement, the structure of the market is clearly changing.
Do you think the traditional cycle is finally breaking down, or is this just a large shakeout before another major rally toward a possible 2026 supercycle?

The simple math of diminishing returns each cycle (the last one was slightly less than X2 peak-to-peak) coupled with very slowly changing plunges (last one was 77%, this one is still counting) mathematically suggests that it is "break the cycles" or "wither and die" situation.

I prefer the former and if bitcoin would break the cycles and start doing what usual assets do: 20% up or down in a year with an occasional 40% up or down, then, I believe, it would not only survive, but thrive. The opposite to this is the eventual death of btc as it would "cycle" itself to oblivion.

[Moreno233]

I prefer the former and if bitcoin would break the cycles and start doing what usual assets do: 20% up or down in a year with an occasional 40% up or down, then, I believe, it would not only survive, but thrive. The opposite to this is the eventual death of btc as it would "cycle" itself to oblivion.

You know as much as I do that the bolded part is not possible, not now and not in the near future. Beyond the price tag on Bitcoin, it is still solving a major problem that the conventional payment systems are unable to solve. All that will not go into oblivion, so when is happening now will not lead to the end. It is just a test of faith of those who claim to believe in Bitcoin and I believe that the greatest transfer of wealth is happening before our very eyes.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

It's confusing because CZ managed to confuse you, but anyone who didn't overthink this through expected it to happen.
I think for now we are still with our traditional cycle narrative until maybe one day we may not be. Even after a lot of institutional players joined the game, Bitcoin failed to go further past the all-time high set in October last year. Most people thought it was an accumulation phase, and then off to $200K we would go, but bears have won.
I guess it is time for the lengthy, boring bear market until Bitcoin halving is around the corner.

[el kaka22]

CZ was wrong, and it's that simple. I know sometimes the big names being wrong comes as a surprise to some people, but he was wrong and there is no other need for another explanation. It is the four year cycle doing it's work just like as always and it is going to be same in the future as well.

Every four years we have a bull run and after every bull run we have a bear run. Just because some people didn't like the size of the bull run, doesn't mean it didn't happen. We had a 16k bottom and a 125k up at bitcoin, that is a bull run, and now we are half way down from that top and tat is the bear run and it will continue to go down some more. I am expecting under 60k to happen during sometime this year. It will only stop going down by this year end or next year.

[Biodom]

CZ was wrong, and it's that simple. I know sometimes the big names being wrong comes as a surprise to some people, but he was wrong and there is no other need for another explanation. It is the four year cycle doing it's work just like as always and it is going to be same in the future as well.

Every four years we have a bull run and after every bull run we have a bear run. Just because some people didn't like the size of the bull run, doesn't mean it didn't happen. We had a 16k bottom and a 125k up at bitcoin, that is a bull run, and now we are half way down from that top and tat is the bear run and it will continue to go down some more. I am expecting under 60k to happen during sometime this year. It will only stop going down by this year end or next year.

What kind of fatalistic bs is this?
Bitcoin issuance is microscopic right now aka negligible for trading.
The only people who halving affect are miners and the rest are just "hallucinating" along, hypnotized by the nonexisting 'cycles" ...woooooo.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Nah, just because CZ talks about super cycle that it will come to fruition this year. Even here in our community, I see some proponents of it, we believed that there will be no bear market as we will have a second run this 2026.

But right now, it looks like this is not the case. The 4 year cycle is going to hold true again as obviously, this is what a cycle is. No one can break it even if some personality like CZ believed otherwise or even if there is a huge money that has been entering the market since ETF.

[JeffBrad12]

Hard to predict, we don't even have the data about how impactful the institutional investment and ETF were and how much it could influence the market, what data we got so far is just institutional buyings.
4 year cycle is looking more real than ever when you're looking at the price action and market structure, such as the recent dump that resembles the end of distribution phase.

It's wildly following the bearish structure of bitcoin in the year of 2021. On the other hand, if we already lost 50% from ATH maybe whether we are in supercycle or the 4 year cycle is repeating again, is not a question anymore.

[Biodom]

Hard to predict, we don't even have the data about how impactful the institutional investment and ETF were and how much it could influence the market, what data we got so far is just institutional buyings.
4 year cycle is looking more real than ever when you're looking at the price action and market structure, such as the recent dump that resembles the end of distribution phase.

It's wildly following the bearish structure of bitcoin in the year of 2021. On the other hand, if we already lost 50% from ATH maybe whether we are in supercycle or the 4 year cycle is repeating again, is not a question anymore.

maybe to you, but not to me (so far), but it would take a few more months (until the EOY) to have a final verdict.

[SUPERSAIAN]

Bitcoin has seemed consistent over the past four years. I've seen this cycle a few times myself. But with all the uncertainty in the world, it seems that cycle has been broken, in my opinion. Bitcoin now moves in sync with global finance. It's sensitive to interest rates, dollar liquidity, and affected by geopolitical tensions. The market used to be quieter now there are many investors and many voices.

[Zaguru12]

Bitcoin has seemed consistent over the past four years. I've seen this cycle a few times myself. But with all the uncertainty in the world, it seems that cycle has been broken, in my opinion. Bitcoin now moves in sync with global finance. It's sensitive to interest rates, dollar liquidity, and affected by geopolitical tensions. The market used to be quieter now there are many investors and many voices.

I actually understand perfectly the angle you’re trying to look at this and many have agreed that bitcoin is actually been affected with global economic crisis and this shouldn’t be a surprise because bitcoin price is naturally about demand and supply, this two are attached to how investors react and global situations are factors to which triggers their reaction either negatively or positively. So the sensitivity to interest rates will definitely be on bitcoin because once there is interest rates or war the investors actually get affected too which means they turn to their assets and the most volatile ones are the most expected.

As for the normal cycle been broken I don’t see it that because history can not happen exactly the same way it use to be, come to think of it why don’t we view this dump as coincidence because ideally we are supposed to actually be in bearish trend at this period.

[fuguebtc]

CZ was wrong, and it's that simple. I know sometimes the big names being wrong comes as a surprise to some people, but he was wrong and there is no other need for another explanation. It is the four year cycle doing it's work just like as always and it is going to be same in the future as well.

Every four years we have a bull run and after every bull run we have a bear run. Just because some people didn't like the size of the bull run, doesn't mean it didn't happen. We had a 16k bottom and a 125k up at bitcoin, that is a bull run, and now we are half way down from that top and tat is the bear run and it will continue to go down some more. I am expecting under 60k to happen during sometime this year. It will only stop going down by this year end or next year.

In fact, CZ is not making prediction, he is trying to create a new pattern to break the old market cycle. And to make that a reality, there is no other way than to leverage one's influence to spread the word and draw in the crowd, thereby creating FOMO. It can be said that CZ was not wrong, but rather that he failed in his attempt to break the old pattern

This is not the first time, every market cycle has some people who believe in and promote the view that "this time will be different" But unfortunately, they never succeed.

[dansus021]

"suggesting that institutional adoption and pro-crypto policies in the US could finally break the traditional 4-year cycle" as people from 2015 and still brokie hahahha adn hoping this is my last cycle and get lambo hehehe.

You might notice that today bitcoin price is already breaking the 4 year cycle, and the supercycle for the altcoin seems gone back then there is also a Altseason but this year and 2024-2025 we didnt see it even altcoin like ETH didnt perform well.

the bad news is when so many Government and other institutional joined crytpto or buy BTC made bitcoin price more volatile with real world news and geopolitic issue and somehow have a great correlation with the US stock and gold

Im still wait and see whether this a Supercycle or Shakeout?

[philipma1957]

I prefer the former and if bitcoin would break the cycles and start doing what usual assets do: 20% up or down in a year with an occasional 40% up or down, then, I believe, it would not only survive, but thrive. The opposite to this is the eventual death of btc as it would "cycle" itself to oblivion.

You know as much as I do that the bolded part is not possible, not now and not in the near future. Beyond the price tag on Bitcoin, it is still solving a major problem that the conventional payment systems are unable to solve. All that will not go into oblivion, so when is happening now will not lead to the end. It is just a test of faith of those who claim to believe in Bitcoin and I believe that the greatest transfer of wealth is happening before our very eyes.

ltc/doge would be better than btc at solving the issues are unable to solve.

but i do think the best thing is the end of the four year cycle and a strong rally past 130k by sept 2026 would really help quite a bit.

[ancafe]

However, recent price action tells a different story. Bitcoin has dropped sharply from around $126k to near $60k in a very short time. Even CZ now appears to be more cautious about the supercycle narrative due to increasing FUD and macro uncertainty.
From my experience, the 4-year cycle has been the most consistent pattern in this market so far. But with ETFs, institutional capital, and government involvement, the structure of the market is clearly changing.
Do you think the traditional cycle is finally breaking down, or is this just a large shakeout before another major rally toward a possible 2026 supercycle?

It's still quite relevant and the cycle is real, although there are occasional slight shifts as in previous cycles. To test whether this is still valid, we can only look at history as we can see Bitcoin's movement based on the candlestick. I also see CZ trying to find a new formula to break the dominance of the cycle that has always existed in Bitcoin and perhaps his narrative isn't or hasn't been accepted by anyone because it hasn't been proven. I personally don't see the traditional cycle collapsing because demand and market structure are clearly still operating as usual, despite changes in institutional movements or government involvement.

[philipma1957]

CZ was wrong, and it's that simple. I know sometimes the big names being wrong comes as a surprise to some people, but he was wrong and there is no other need for another explanation. It is the four year cycle doing it's work just like as always and it is going to be same in the future as well.

Every four years we have a bull run and after every bull run we have a bear run. Just because some people didn't like the size of the bull run, doesn't mean it didn't happen. We had a 16k bottom and a 125k up at bitcoin, that is a bull run, and now we are half way down from that top and tat is the bear run and it will continue to go down some more. I am expecting under 60k to happen during sometime this year. It will only stop going down by this year end or next year.

What kind of fatalistic bs is this?ith meds
Bitcoin issuance is microscopic right now aka negligible for trading.
The only people who halving affect are miners and the rest are just "hallucinating" along, hypnotized by the nonexisting 'cycles" ...woooooo.

Unfortunately  the us has 275 million adults 18 or older.

And as many as 20% of them are on Medication for mental illness.it.

Some estimate another 10% need to be on psychiatric meds.

That would be 30% of 275 million or 82.5 million people that need help with meds to cope with reality.

It is easy see how false beliefs can happen.  Worse yet millions are sick enough to believe false unreal ideas like bitcoin cycles.

And making it worse if enough do that can make false ideas seem to happen.

The belief in 4 year cycle affecting btc price with boom and bust is possible to make happen if enough people believe it and act on it.

[pooya87]

I’ve been involved in crypto since 2014, so I’ve experienced several bull and bear markets. Still, I have to admit that the current situation feels more confusing than usual.

This is confusing while feeling familiar at the same time. The familiarity is because we have all seen similar big crashes that happen suddenly, but the confusion is because we always had a big rally leading to a big bubble first and then after the bubble couldn't grow any larger, the price got dumped (bubble pop).

We haven't had any major bubbles for a long time to see any kind of pop but we have had crashes!
If we look at the global economy, we can see the reason for these drops though. We are in recession years globally and that destroys the economy and crashes the markets.

and pro-crypto policies in the US could finally break the traditional 4-year cycle.

That's actually one of the main reasons for this drop. The US economy is in a bad shape that is getting worse every day. With bad decisions by the pedophile POTUS, the global dedollarisation, the wars they keep starting, the tariff war US lost against China,... all have made things worse. That will not only discourage people from making any kind of investment, but will also force them to liquidate what they already have.

According to this view, the market might enter a longer period of sustained growth instead of repeating the usual boom-and-bust pattern.

I don't think the market is yet mature enough for that.

Do you think the traditional cycle is finally breaking down, or is this just a large shakeout before another major rally toward a possible 2026 supercycle?

I don't think this is just a simple shakeout, the recession is a serious matter. But I still believe there is a high chance that we see a decent rise in 2026 (not a supercycle though).

[Catenaccio]

This is confusing while feeling familiar at the same time. The familiarity is because we have all seen similar big crashes that happen suddenly, but the confusion is because we always had a big rally leading to a big bubble first and then after the bubble couldn't grow any larger, the price got dumped (bubble pop).

We haven't had any major bubbles for a long time to see any kind of pop but we have had crashes!
If we look at the global economy, we can see the reason for these drops though. We are in recession years globally and that destroys the economy and crashes the markets.

The term super cycle does not only exist and is spread in this market cycle but it existed years ago, at least according to searching result, there was news and speculations on Bitcoin super cycle in 2021.
2021-12-28 Bitcoin and the possibility of a super cycle.

People in the market mostly don't change and even they are fooled with Bitcoin super cycle possibility in 2025, 2026 years, they will repeat this big mistake in next market cycles. They are easily to be fooled as they quickly forgot their past mistakes while speculations on something bright and profitable are always very attractive and likely convincing.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Do you think the traditional cycle is finally breaking down, or is this just a large shakeout before another major rally toward a possible 2026 supercycle?

Naaa. I've been hearing about a supposed supercycle since at least 2020. If it hasn't happened by now, I don't think it's going to happen in 2026

People who discover Bitcoin and its limited nature tend to believe that increased demand and decreasing supply should lead to an explosion in price. However, if we look at the price behavior since the beginning, the price of Bitcoin has followed that of any other successful asset: exponential growth at the beginning and moderation later on. I'm not saying that we can't have a great year in the future, but the way 2026 has started, it doesn't look like it.