According to this expert, the bottom is in

[d5000]

In a significant shift in bitcoin’s market structure the amount of supply held by “conviction buyers” has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, according to BitGo data cited by Bitfinex on Wednesday.

This indeed looks interesting. I've looked a bit into the article and the Bitfinex post to see what these "conviction buyers" are.

Exact methodology is unclear, but this is the result of onchain analysis, where the coins in this category are owned by entities that:

- are not exchanges
- are not among the "inactive" Bitcoin owners (those sitting without moving for more than 10 years)
- rarely transact, and their transaction patterns aren't influenced by downward price movements
- (own interpretation of the chart) but it's possible they sell in upward movements.

About 5.6 million are "inactive" BTC, so those Bitcoins added to the 4 million "conviction buyers" are 9 million from the current 20 million who will not be easily dumped.

It's also interesting that in 2025 only about a million was held by conviction buyers. However, the 4 current million aren't the absolute record: it were about 4.5 million up to 5 million both in 2014/15 and 2020/21. On the other hand, these 4.5 million BTC were worth much less back then. So in terms of purchasing power we should be close to an ATH of "conviction buyers".

The only little downside is that StrategyBTC is counted among these "conviction buyers", and they alone make up for almost 25% of these.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

If this expert is correct, this might become the shortest bear market of bitcoin and we can be certain it will also be certain that this will be also a short bear market for the whole cryptospace?

Does everyone reckon that he is correct? I would certainly want him to be correct hehehehe, however, is he correct?

Personally I don't really care about the Bitcoin market trajectory analysis predicted by some experts and also we no completely ignore their analysis.. Anyone can speculate about Bitcoin's market trajectory, but I believe it's difficult to predict the accuracy of the price action because this asset may not be the same as other assets. Although we are currently seeing upward price movements after a correction, there's no certainty about how this price consolidation will reach higher levels in the near future considering global conditions which have not yet fully recovered regarding the direction of economic policy.

[bbc.reporter]

In a significant shift in bitcoin’s market structure the amount of supply held by “conviction buyers” has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, according to BitGo data cited by Bitfinex on Wednesday.

This indeed looks interesting. I've looked a bit into the article and the Bitfinex post to see what these "conviction buyers" are.

Exact methodology is unclear, but this is the result of onchain analysis, where the coins in this category are owned by entities that:

- are not exchanges
- are not among the "inactive" Bitcoin owners (those sitting without moving for more than 10 years)
- rarely transact, and their transaction patterns aren't influenced by downward price movements
- (own interpretation of the chart) but it's possible they sell in upward movements.

About 5.6 million are "inactive" BTC, so those Bitcoins added to the 4 million "conviction buyers" are 9 million from the current 20 million who will not be easily dumped.

It's also interesting that in 2025 only about a million was held by conviction buyers. However, the 4 current million aren't the absolute record: it were about 4.5 million up to 5 million both in 2014/15 and 2020/21. On the other hand, these 4.5 million BTC were worth much less back then. So in terms of purchasing power we should be close to an ATH of "conviction buyers".

The only little downside is that StrategyBTC is counted among these "conviction buyers", and they alone make up for almost 25% of these.

This is headshaking because after the good news, we are being given another new which is more negative hehehe. The skeptical me us saying that these people want to make everyone very confused and when everyone is confused, it will be more easier to create fud and cause a panic dump! This is where the market insiders and their friends can buy their bitcoin cheaply!



Why bitcoin’s recent climb to $80,000 might just be a temporary liquidity squeeze

Bitcoin’s onchain metrics are flashing their most constructive signals since early February, but underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning suggest the road to new highs will not be easy, Bitfinex shared in an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday.

Long-term holders, whose bitcoin holdings have increased by 300% since the end of 2025 to nearly 4 million tokens, have started taking $180 million in profits per day since BTC rallied to the over the $82,000 level on May 11 before dropping from $81,000 to the lower $79,000s on Thursday.

Supporting this cautious outlook is a "gamma trap" identified in the derivatives market. Data from Glassnode shows nearly $2 billion in short gamma options positions clustered around the $82,000 strike price. As bitcoin trades within this zone, market makers are forced to hedge their positions, initially amplifying volatility and potentially "squeezing" the price toward $82,000, Bitfinex said in its note.

Jason Fernandes, co-founder at AdLunam, noted that this gamma concentration creates a deceptive environment. “Dealer hedging can accelerate price toward that level, but once the squeeze exhausts itself, the same positioning can suppress momentum and act as resistance,” Fernandes told CoinDesk.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/14/why-bitcoin-s-recent-climb-to-usd80-000-might-just-be-a-temporary-liquidity-squeeze

[Crytohillss]

If this expert is correct, this might become the shortest bear market of bitcoin and we can be certain it will also be certain that this will be also a short bear market for the whole cryptospace?
Does everyone reckon that he is correct? I would certainly want him to be correct hehehehe, however, is he correct?

So many folks speak about Bitcoin like they already understand the next movement but the market has proven so many times that it doesn't follow prediction rightly. Technical analysis can give possible directions but global economic uncertainty regulations and investors sentiment can still play big roles for me patience and risk management matters more than trying to predict every price move.

[STT]

Bitcoin is still an alternate type asset and that's useful in this current landscape of high volatility and uncertain returns in the midst of wars that may continue in their effects for many years even if we do end the conflict.   I agree the bottom price is likely in but longer term predictions are far easier to say then anything short term if you don't restrict yourself to exact time scales.

  Todays candlestick was bullish and I meant to say this earlier but its confirmed right now in the close as such.   The spinning top or pin formation is a classic, I would not restrict myself to one day in an outlook but the candle today matches the wider picture anyway.   We trading both near the 50 day moving average but also the long term price with volume significant at this price level for BTC long term, going back to early March 2024; if we keep above this level now gains will accumulate on this long term view.

[M47AK16]

Bitcoin is still an alternate type asset and that's useful in this current landscape of high volatility and uncertain returns in the midst of wars that may continue in their effects for many years even if we do end the conflict.   I agree the bottom price is likely in but longer term predictions are far easier to say then anything short term if you don't restrict yourself to exact time scales.

  Todays candlestick was bullish and I meant to say this earlier but its confirmed right now in the close as such.   The spinning top or pin formation is a classic, I would not restrict myself to one day in an outlook but the candle today matches the wider picture anyway.   We trading both near the 50 day moving average but also the long term price with volume significant at this price level for BTC long term, going back to early March 2024; if we keep above this level now gains will accumulate on this long term view.

You mean alternate type of 'currency' because even on times of volatility like now, we can skip that part and switch to its asset form for a while, so that we can still take advantage of it. Investing is always like that anyways (uncertain). Some events like the Wars can only fuel the uncertainty though.

But as long as we had made a research and found out the usefulness of the asset that we are investing in, then it always has a reason to bounce back. The price keeps on declining lately. I think there are still more to come from it. But if we can't wait, we can always buy now. That also ensures that we may not miss this dip if in case the price recovers suddenly and the season switch to a bull run instead.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears this Samson Mow has bought bitcoin already heheheeh. Similar to much of us in this forum who buy and repeatedly become wishful that this is the bottom, declaring this every day by posting in the forum and hope that this will become real! Similar to @EarnOnVictor's reply to me in my prediction on Michael Sellor, humans are cool heheheheeh.



Samson Mow says bitcoin bottom is in

The bitcoin bottom is in, said Samson Mow in an X post on Sunday, arguing that the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated.

“I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in four months because of ‘cycles,’” said Mow, who is best known his $1 million prediction and his work with El Salvador’s bitcoin initiatives, as well as his work promoting nation-state bitcoin adoption worldwide.

“But we had an (all-time high) ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles, you should reason out that the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in,” said Mow, former chief strategy officer at Adam Back’s Blockstream.

Mow said he believes that bitcoin reaching a then-all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving suggests the traditional four-year cycle has accelerated, making historical cycle comparisons less reliable.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/28/samson-mow-says-bitcoin-bottom-is-in-but-analysts-remain-divided

[bbc.reporter]

It very much appears that Samsung Mow was correct heheheh. On June 29 when I shared the news about his declaration might be the day of the bottom of this bear market. This was very good timing for the Chinaman!

Also, this is another good news! There is beginning to be more inflows on bitcoin through the ETF. This certainly makes it appears that institutional investors bullishness is returning!



Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. saw the largest single-day net inflows since mid-January on Thursday following anticipation of an improving macroeconomic environment.

According to SoSoValue data, the funds saw a total net inflow of $730.9 million, largely driven by roughly $454 million moving into BlackRock's IBIT. Six other funds, including ones from Fidelity and Grayscale, also reported inflows.

Thursday's amount marks the largest net inflow day since January 14, and comes after the ETFs had their strongest month since September 2025. Last month, the U.S. bitcoin funds attracted a total of $3.5 billion.

Read in full https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-04-us-bitcoin-etfs-largest-inflow-day-since-january-413515

[#CapsLOck]

That's not enough to make me say the bottom is finding. What I find more interesting is if Bitcoin will maintain that level following the initial recovery or if they will immediately lose the support and continue to fall. Sometimes. A big downtrend can lead to a sharp bounce. Particularly after the liquidation-driven pullback. I believe that's a reasonable thought on the part of Duong. But a too premature bottom call can be as bad as a too premature top call. To me the confirmation would be more important than the prediction.

[Emeraldo]

If this expert is correct, this might become the shortest bear market of bitcoin and we can be certain it will also be certain that this will be also a short bear market for the whole cryptospace?

Does everyone reckon that he is correct? I would certainly want him to be correct hehehehe, however, is he correct?

I have seen some posts like this before about this bear market being one of the shortest bear market.
Perhaps the institutional traders may have changed the outlook of the market making everything change it cores. If this current bear market becomes one of the shortest bear market that will not last up to 3.5 years, this means the bull market that will come next will be shorter than what we have been seeing it with the bull cycle. The bear market started last year and it could end this year or next year which is going to be a good experience for all Bitcoin holders.

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that we have again different experts who are telling everyone different speculations hehehehe. This expert tells us that there will be another pump, however, I read another article yesterday where an expert mentioned that there will be another dump.

Who is correct ehehehehe. The bullish expert or the bearish expert?



Bitcoin’s rebound may have further to run as institutional investors caught on the wrong side of volatility trades are forced to cover their positions, according to Alexander Blume, founder and CEO of crypto asset manager Two Prime.

Investors have repeatedly sold bitcoin calls, suppressing implied volatility and leaving themselves exposed when prices rise sharply, Blume told CoinDesk in an interview. Further gains could force those traders to hedge or close positions, adding fuel to the rally.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/03/bitcoin-rally-has-more-room-as-volatility-shorts-unwind-two-prime-ceo-says