
In previous bear markets bitcoin capitalization fell to 40 %. Why in this crypto bear market bitcoin capitalization doesn't fall to 40 % again? Will it fall in the coming months or it will never fall so deep again?
Cap +1% , нo -28 for year.
Prices have been trading sideways for several days, and sentiment remains in the extreme fear zone, largely due to uncertainty.
Negative funding rates, rising BTC inflows to exchanges.
After a significant decline in open interest in derivatives last week, traders are again increasing leverage, which, given this sentiment, makes the market sensitive to negative news.
Binance added another 4,545 BTC to the SAFU fund and closed the $1 billion transition from stablecoins to BTC. SAFU now holds 15,000 BTC (approximately $1 billion at a price of $67,000).
Standard Chartered lowered its Bitcoin price forecast for the end of 2026 from $150,000 to $100,000, warning of additional risks.
The market is in the process of capitulation. Short-term risk of further decline, but such levels often mark local/global bottoms.
The current weakness in the crypto market is a combination of internal cycle exhaustion and high uncertainty in external markets:
After a powerful ETF rally, institutions began reducing their positions.
Major exchange flows (Binance & Bitfinex) initially increased selling pressure, and after the dump, they squeezed spot liquidity.
A trend reversal is possible with stable ETF inflows, a new powerful buyer, and strong narratives within the industry itself that attract external capital flows.
Key drivers:
February 13th, monthly/weekly options expiration and US inflation data.