Bitcoin Failed Its Ultimate Test

[Alpen]

Regardless of how I try to look at it, attributing the success or failure of bitcoin to the actions of one man no matter who he is right now is really short sighted, how bitcoin closed the year isn't anyone fault or decision, things happen and just because it closed the year in the red doesn't mean it's never going towards the green again, it might be an important time for us seeing as it's the end of the year and all that but if bitcoin was sentient then the end of the year wouldn't really be all that different from any other day, it's all just dates and numbers.

What’s stopping Bitcoin from staying in the red for another year? Or the year after that? Crypto can trend downward for years, much like gold has done historically. If the Democrats sweep Congress and eventually the White House, and the US joins China’s anti-crypto stance, where does that leave us? If the world's two largest economies turn their backs on it, where exactly are we supposed to trade?

[philipma1957]

Regardless of how I try to look at it, attributing the success or failure of bitcoin to the actions of one man no matter who he is right now is really short sighted, how bitcoin closed the year isn't anyone fault or decision, things happen and just because it closed the year in the red doesn't mean it's never going towards the green again, it might be an important time for us seeing as it's the end of the year and all that but if bitcoin was sentient then the end of the year wouldn't really be all that different from any other day, it's all just dates and numbers.

What’s stopping Bitcoin from staying in the red for another year? Or the year after that? Crypto can trend downward for years, much like gold has done historically. If the Democrats sweep Congress and eventually the White House, and the US joins China’s anti-crypto stance, where does that leave us? If the world's two largest economies turn their backs on it, where exactly are we supposed to trade?

Btc bites the dust oh well.

Been there done that.

[Alpen]

So what if Trump was wrongly called the "first crypto president"? Does that mean he can "save BTC from closing the year in the red"? What makes you think he has that power?

If you come to assess Bitcoin's safe haven label when it's at the bottom, it surely failed. If you do it some other time, it easily passes the test with flying colors. To be fair, perhaps we should take a few steps back and take a look at Bitcoin's overall performance, not just short time frames.

Okay first of all bitcoin don't depends on title or controlled by politicians so you saying or they call trump crypto president, that do not mean that one person can control bitcoin, it's all about how demands , supply and also confidence on the way the global market or events goes.

And again this safe heaven label this don't mean that the price of bitcoin won't drop even when it comes to gold the price still fall sometimes, the thing is that even if it drops can the assets recover from it and holds value as the years pass by because instead of you focusing it if bitcoin is on red or green in a year it's just okay to ask because with this alone it has proven that no matter how the market seems it can still survive and in the terms of a long run bitcoin still holds its value or bitcoin is makes sense as an asset and solid reason to stand strong.

It takes very little for one person to tank Bitcoin by 60% if that person is the head of a major global power. Just look at the Chinese mining ban; those miners only survived because they found a safe haven in the US.

What happens if they are kicked out of the States by a Trump executive order? Or if the DOJ, under presidential direction, goes after Tether again? Remember 2018: Bitcoin plummeted 50% simply because Tether was caught up in US legal proceedings. Political decisions have massive consequences.

[Alpen]

Gold is rising ONLY because the world is dumping the dollar as reserve currency and is replacing it with gold. So when the central banks of more than half the world with the larges total economies (ie. BRICS for example) are buying gold, its price is bound to shoot up like this.

When gold goes up like this while the world is in a worsening recession, the capital tends to go toward gold and exit bitcoin. That has nothing to do with the pedophile POTUS and his nonsense show put up during the installation campaign.

Although it's disappointing to watch bitcoin perform poorly during this global recession and geopolitical turmoil but bitcoin's test was going from $0.001 to $100,000 in only 17 years. In the next 17 years things will be more or less the same.

Your conclusions actually contradict your own premises. You admit that Central Banks and major investors don't need Bitcoin—they choose gold. Bitcoin failed to hold its ground above $100k precisely because it lacked sustained institutional backing. As soon as that capital rotated back into gold, the price crashed to $60k, returning to the very levels where the institutional rally originally began.

Meanwhile, the US President and his family simply cashed out on the crypto hype and are now laughing all the way to the bank.

[davis196]

From 2010 to 2020, BTC straight-up ate gold's lunch. We all got comfortable calling it a safe haven. Then 2025 hit. Cold shower.

Here's what actually happened:

Gold: An unprecedented rally on the back of Trump's arrival and global chaos. +60% for the year.
Bitcoin: Despite being the "first crypto president," Trump didn't save BTC from closing the year in the red.

2025? I do believe that 2025 was a pretty good year for BTC. Do you mean 2026? Do you really believe that the current price drop was shocking? I can assume that you don't remember 2022, when the BTC price dropped from 40-50K to 17K in a matter of months or the 2018 crypto winter, when the BTC price dropped from 17K back in December 2017 to somewhere around 3K in 2018. What about the 2013 price crash? Are you really familiar with the history of Bitcoin? I don't think that anyone considered Bitcoin to be a "safe heaven" asset back in the 2010-2020 era. Yes, some people were calling BTC "digital gold" back then, but the perception of Bitcoin as a "safe heaven" asset has gained popularity after 2021.

[escrow.ms]

Regardless of how I try to look at it, attributing the success or failure of bitcoin to the actions of one man no matter who he is right now is really short sighted, how bitcoin closed the year isn't anyone fault or decision, things happen and just because it closed the year in the red doesn't mean it's never going towards the green again, it might be an important time for us seeing as it's the end of the year and all that but if bitcoin was sentient then the end of the year wouldn't really be all that different from any other day, it's all just dates and numbers.

What’s stopping Bitcoin from staying in the red for another year? Or the year after that? Crypto can trend downward for years, much like gold has done historically. If the Democrats sweep Congress and eventually the White House, and the US joins China’s anti-crypto stance, where does that leave us? If the world's two largest economies turn their backs on it, where exactly are we supposed to trade?

I'll tell you what's stopping it from staying red for another year.

1. Limited supply and less number of coins in circulation.
2. Worldwide adoption and national crypto reserves.
3. A huge network that's spreading after each cycle.
4. It's use case shifting from transfer of value to store of value.

[Sticky Bomb]

From 2010 to 2020, BTC straight-up ate gold's lunch. We all got comfortable calling it a safe haven. Then 2025 hit. Cold shower.

When the uncertainty index went parabolic, capital chose good old-fashioned gold over the "digital" stuff. Looks like BTC failed the "safe haven" test. At least for now. Or am I missing something in this cycle?

Bitcoin safe heaven test was against Fiat and not necessarily against gold. I would not want to go into the details of how government favors gold but fights Bitcoin since they cannot exert direct control over it.

Do the safe heaven test this way:
Get the dollar value value of 1BTC in 2010 which was $0.01and compare with the value of 1BTC today which is $70k and convince me that it failed the safe heaven test for it's investors.

Bitcoin has done well historically in just 17 years than gold has done in the last 17 years. It's still a safe heaven assets for me.

[asriloni]

When the uncertainty index went parabolic, capital chose good old-fashioned gold over the "digital" stuff. Looks like BTC failed the "safe haven" test. At least for now. Or am I missing something in this cycle?

Yup, you're not missing the point. I know you meant BTC was being supposed to be a safe heaven asset during the crisis, but it can't survive when the crisis happened. However, it's happening not only bitcoin but gold too.

In fact, both of assets were not survived during the Covid era or Ukraine war against russia. Basically, there is no safe haven asset. No asset can survive during any crisis. Any investment instrument will always be volatile since it was speculative asset. Yet i admit how gold is less fluctuate compared to Bitcoin, which may give us lesser risk than btc. However, the risk also determine the reward.

[tygeade]

In 2024, we started around 40k and ended in 90k give or take, and in 2025 we peaked toward 125k as well. That's not really small and it broke out a lot and if you really want to think Gold was better, then you have not followed up what happened with bitcoin. I get that we are lower than, I get that we are in the bear market and the price will fall, but just because we are not doing good NOW, that doesn't mean we didn't do good, we did alright.

Secondly and probably more importantly, the higher we go in price, the more money will be required from investors to keep bitcoin going higher, and that is not going to happen that easily, we are going to end up losing a lot more % when going up and won't go up like old days.

[BRINIRHA]

Bitcoin is only entering a bearish cycle, which is normal. And despite all the recent declines in bitcoin, it does not mean that Bitcoin will continue to weaken in the long term. Bitcoin is just taking a breather before the bullish market returns.
Gold will always continue to rise as people's confidence in fiat currencies weakens in maintaining their value. Inflation is the cause.

Remember that currently, more fiat money is flowing into gold because, amid the current uncertain economy, we must realize that gold is still the most widely recognized asset by everyone on this planet. Therefore, it is not surprising that more people will continue to invest their money in gold. The comparison between those who already know about gold and Bitcoin is quite different. However, the situation will be very different in the future when almost everyone also understands and knows about Bitcoin.