Halving: What about Bitcoin's network security in 20, 50, 100 years?

[tiffy]

What I don't understand. Everyone is talking about fictional quantum computers that may not exist for another 100 years. But real problems aren't being discussed at all, are they?

Bitcoin is threatened by very real computers. The miners protect the network from this. Right? But their reward in Bitcoin is halved every four years. Consequently, the price of Bitcoin must double in the same period to maintain mining in the usual way.

The 200 SMA was around $50,000 in February 2022. It is currently at $100,000. So everything still seems intact. But the price increase seems to be flattening out. Economically, this is completely normal in my view. But if the reward still halves every four years, it will eventually become a problem.

I'm just surprised that so little is being said about this. In my view, the reward issue is becoming more of a problem than quantum computers, as the fees currently don't even begin to offset the reward.

Quantum computers on the other hand are a theoretical concept. No real threat at present. I don't presume to judge or belittle efforts in the field of quantum security. But it unsettles me that many perceive such a curiosity as the greatest threat, while real threats are clearly looming on the horizon. Bitcoin is threatened every day by very real computers. It must continue to be prepared for this threat in the future.

Sorry for chiming in here as a newbie. But when you look at the Bitcoin system from the outside and evaluate it economically, this problem is the first thing you notice. Apart from that, Bitcoin is super interesting. With a stable reward system, it could run forever and eventually replace gold.

I don't know how to solve this problem. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this.

[BlackHatCoiner]

If future generations find bitcoin useful, they will use it to transact. If they use it to transact, then we can assume that there will be volume.

The average block revenue from fees is 0.015 BTC in the last 144 blocks. It is very low to sustain the network, with current purchasing power. At $10 million per bitcoin, 0.015 BTC is $150k. That makes sense to mine it, but then we have to ask ourselves another question: will the average block revenue be 0.015 BTC in the years 2050+?

To get an approximate answer, we can look on history, when bitcoin was less valuable than it is today, and see how much BTC previous generations were paying on fees. Below is the average block revenue from fees since genesis:

Code:

$ python3 fee_revenue.py 
Chain tip  : block 937285
Epochs     : 464  (2016 blocks each)
Sampling   : every 50 block(s) per epoch
Cache file : epoch_fees_cache.json

[c] epoch    1/464 (  0.2%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch    2/464 (  0.4%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch    3/464 (  0.6%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch    4/464 (  0.9%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch    5/464 (  1.1%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch    6/464 (  1.3%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch    7/464 (  1.5%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch    8/464 (  1.7%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch    9/464 (  1.9%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   10/464 (  2.2%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   11/464 (  2.4%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   12/464 (  2.6%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   13/464 (  2.8%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   14/464 (  3.0%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   15/464 (  3.2%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   16/464 (  3.4%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   17/464 (  3.7%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   18/464 (  3.9%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   19/464 (  4.1%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   20/464 (  4.3%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   21/464 (  4.5%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   22/464 (  4.7%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   23/464 (  5.0%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   24/464 (  5.2%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   25/464 (  5.4%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   26/464 (  5.6%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   27/464 (  5.8%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   28/464 (  6.0%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   29/464 (  6.2%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   30/464 (  6.5%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   31/464 (  6.7%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   32/464 (  6.9%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   33/464 (  7.1%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   34/464 (  7.3%):  0.000488 BTC
[c] epoch   35/464 (  7.5%):  0.000244 BTC
[c] epoch   36/464 (  7.8%):  0.001220 BTC
[c] epoch   37/464 (  8.0%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   38/464 (  8.2%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   39/464 (  8.4%):  0.000732 BTC
[c] epoch   40/464 (  8.6%):  0.000244 BTC
[c] epoch   41/464 (  8.8%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   42/464 (  9.1%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   43/464 (  9.3%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   44/464 (  9.5%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   45/464 (  9.7%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   46/464 (  9.9%):  0.000000 BTC
[c] epoch   47/464 ( 10.1%):  0.002439 BTC
[c] epoch   48/464 ( 10.3%):  0.000244 BTC
[c] epoch   49/464 ( 10.6%):  0.000976 BTC
[c] epoch   50/464 ( 10.8%):  0.000244 BTC
[c] epoch   51/464 ( 11.0%):  0.000393 BTC
[c] epoch   52/464 ( 11.2%):  0.010012 BTC
[c] epoch   53/464 ( 11.4%):  0.003686 BTC
[c] epoch   54/464 ( 11.6%):  0.002195 BTC
[c] epoch   55/464 ( 11.9%):  0.000244 BTC
[c] epoch   56/464 ( 12.1%):  0.011483 BTC
[c] epoch   57/464 ( 12.3%):  0.045122 BTC
[c] epoch   58/464 ( 12.5%):  0.027563 BTC
[c] epoch   59/464 ( 12.7%):  0.022683 BTC
[c] epoch   60/464 ( 12.9%):  0.031220 BTC
[c] epoch   61/464 ( 13.1%):  0.036122 BTC
[c] epoch   62/464 ( 13.4%):  0.049999 BTC
[c] epoch   63/464 ( 13.6%):  0.054039 BTC
[c] epoch   64/464 ( 13.8%):  0.125578 BTC
[c] epoch   65/464 ( 14.0%):  0.229631 BTC
[c] epoch   66/464 ( 14.2%):  0.094081 BTC
[c] epoch   67/464 ( 14.4%):  0.097830 BTC
[c] epoch   68/464 ( 14.7%):  0.094680 BTC
[c] epoch   69/464 ( 14.9%):  0.034874 BTC
[c] epoch   70/464 ( 15.1%):  0.058748 BTC
[c] epoch   71/464 ( 15.3%):  0.044218 BTC
[c] epoch   72/464 ( 15.5%):  0.029688 BTC
[c] epoch   73/464 ( 15.7%):  0.027950 BTC
[c] epoch   74/464 ( 15.9%):  0.061026 BTC
[c] epoch   75/464 ( 16.2%):  0.022474 BTC
[c] epoch   76/464 ( 16.4%):  0.020411 BTC
[c] epoch   77/464 ( 16.6%):  0.038116 BTC
[c] epoch   78/464 ( 16.8%):  0.016222 BTC
[c] epoch   79/464 ( 17.0%):  0.035217 BTC
[c] epoch   80/464 ( 17.2%):  0.066813 BTC
[c] epoch   81/464 ( 17.5%):  0.029062 BTC
[c] epoch   82/464 ( 17.7%):  0.062940 BTC
[c] epoch   83/464 ( 17.9%):  0.028088 BTC
[c] epoch   84/464 ( 18.1%):  0.033770 BTC
[c] epoch   85/464 ( 18.3%):  0.024572 BTC
[c] epoch   86/464 ( 18.5%):  0.027914 BTC
[c] epoch   87/464 ( 18.8%):  0.060592 BTC
[c] epoch   88/464 ( 19.0%):  0.025256 BTC
[c] epoch   89/464 ( 19.2%):  0.054821 BTC
[c] epoch   90/464 ( 19.4%):  0.092361 BTC
[c] epoch   91/464 ( 19.6%):  0.130027 BTC
[c] epoch   92/464 ( 19.8%):  0.116050 BTC
[c] epoch   93/464 ( 20.0%):  0.088381 BTC
[c] epoch   94/464 ( 20.3%):  0.405748 BTC
[c] epoch   95/464 ( 20.5%):  0.102178 BTC
[c] epoch   96/464 ( 20.7%):  0.123238 BTC
[c] epoch   97/464 ( 20.9%):  0.155246 BTC
[c] epoch   98/464 ( 21.1%):  0.157712 BTC
[c] epoch   99/464 ( 21.3%):  0.125173 BTC
[c] epoch  100/464 ( 21.6%):  0.122195 BTC
[c] epoch  101/464 ( 21.8%):  0.120122 BTC
[c] epoch  102/464 ( 22.0%):  0.121475 BTC
[c] epoch  103/464 ( 22.2%):  0.164255 BTC
[c] epoch  104/464 ( 22.4%):  0.150931 BTC
[c] epoch  105/464 ( 22.6%):  0.118700 BTC
[c] epoch  106/464 ( 22.8%):  0.221698 BTC
[c] epoch  107/464 ( 23.1%):  0.180253 BTC
[c] epoch  108/464 ( 23.3%):  0.273601 BTC
[c] epoch  109/464 ( 23.5%):  0.247008 BTC
[c] epoch  110/464 ( 23.7%):  0.332507 BTC
[c] epoch  111/464 ( 23.9%):  0.275846 BTC
[c] epoch  112/464 ( 24.1%):  0.358758 BTC
[c] epoch  113/464 ( 24.4%):  0.248917 BTC
[c] epoch  114/464 ( 24.6%):  0.311687 BTC
[c] epoch  115/464 ( 24.8%):  0.212644 BTC
[c] epoch  116/464 ( 25.0%):  0.232797 BTC
[c] epoch  117/464 ( 25.2%):  0.258286 BTC
[c] epoch  118/464 ( 25.4%):  0.306749 BTC
[c] epoch  119/464 ( 25.6%):  0.242208 BTC
[c] epoch  120/464 ( 25.9%):  0.190653 BTC
[c] epoch  121/464 ( 26.1%):  0.153051 BTC
[c] epoch  122/464 ( 26.3%):  0.125026 BTC
[c] epoch  123/464 ( 26.5%):  0.204223 BTC
[c] epoch  124/464 ( 26.7%):  0.345364 BTC
[c] epoch  125/464 ( 26.9%):  0.315267 BTC
[c] epoch  126/464 ( 27.2%):  0.208635 BTC
[c] epoch  127/464 ( 27.4%):  0.162414 BTC
[c] epoch  128/464 ( 27.6%):  0.112562 BTC
[c] epoch  129/464 ( 27.8%):  0.280064 BTC
[c] epoch  130/464 ( 28.0%):  0.141480 BTC
[c] epoch  131/464 ( 28.2%):  0.101559 BTC
[c] epoch  132/464 ( 28.4%):  0.094213 BTC
[c] epoch  133/464 ( 28.7%):  0.100392 BTC
[c] epoch  134/464 ( 28.9%):  0.126767 BTC
[c] epoch  135/464 ( 29.1%):  0.149837 BTC
[c] epoch  136/464 ( 29.3%):  0.093293 BTC
[c] epoch  137/464 ( 29.5%):  0.087715 BTC
[c] epoch  138/464 ( 29.7%):  0.076409 BTC
[c] epoch  139/464 ( 30.0%):  0.104787 BTC
[c] epoch  140/464 ( 30.2%):  0.087808 BTC
[c] epoch  141/464 ( 30.4%):  0.083843 BTC
[c] epoch  142/464 ( 30.6%):  0.077983 BTC
[c] epoch  143/464 ( 30.8%):  0.065497 BTC
[c] epoch  144/464 ( 31.0%):  0.087274 BTC
[c] epoch  145/464 ( 31.2%):  0.076361 BTC
[c] epoch  146/464 ( 31.5%):  0.068630 BTC
[c] epoch  147/464 ( 31.7%):  0.095832 BTC
[c] epoch  148/464 ( 31.9%):  0.085372 BTC
[c] epoch  149/464 ( 32.1%):  0.072360 BTC
[c] epoch  150/464 ( 32.3%):  0.061204 BTC
[c] epoch  151/464 ( 32.5%):  0.062881 BTC
[c] epoch  152/464 ( 32.8%):  0.055319 BTC
[c] epoch  153/464 ( 33.0%):  0.072363 BTC
[c] epoch  154/464 ( 33.2%):  0.085314 BTC
[c] epoch  155/464 ( 33.4%):  0.081748 BTC
[c] epoch  156/464 ( 33.6%):  0.067729 BTC
[c] epoch  157/464 ( 33.8%):  0.069226 BTC
[c] epoch  158/464 ( 34.1%):  0.068668 BTC
[c] epoch  159/464 ( 34.3%):  0.060910 BTC
[c] epoch  160/464 ( 34.5%):  0.055043 BTC
[c] epoch  161/464 ( 34.7%):  0.088424 BTC
[c] epoch  162/464 ( 34.9%):  0.096959 BTC
[c] epoch  163/464 ( 35.1%):  0.081917 BTC
[c] epoch  164/464 ( 35.3%):  0.088014 BTC
[c] epoch  165/464 ( 35.6%):  0.096823 BTC
[c] epoch  166/464 ( 35.8%):  0.090115 BTC
[c] epoch  167/464 ( 36.0%):  0.101978 BTC
[c] epoch  168/464 ( 36.2%):  0.069416 BTC
[c] epoch  169/464 ( 36.4%):  0.081440 BTC
[c] epoch  170/464 ( 36.6%):  0.091458 BTC
[c] epoch  171/464 ( 36.9%):  0.092512 BTC
[c] epoch  172/464 ( 37.1%):  0.099058 BTC
[c] epoch  173/464 ( 37.3%):  0.101322 BTC
[c] epoch  174/464 ( 37.5%):  0.097132 BTC
[c] epoch  175/464 ( 37.7%):  0.107638 BTC
[c] epoch  176/464 ( 37.9%):  0.103984 BTC
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[c] epoch  179/464 ( 38.6%):  0.113873 BTC
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[c] epoch  181/464 ( 39.0%):  0.219105 BTC
[c] epoch  182/464 ( 39.2%):  0.156343 BTC
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[c] epoch  186/464 ( 40.1%):  0.207321 BTC
[c] epoch  187/464 ( 40.3%):  0.139018 BTC
[c] epoch  188/464 ( 40.5%):  0.174216 BTC
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[c] epoch  190/464 ( 40.9%):  0.216407 BTC
[c] epoch  191/464 ( 41.2%):  0.149068 BTC
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[c] epoch  193/464 ( 41.6%):  0.217409 BTC
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[c] epoch  196/464 ( 42.2%):  0.257189 BTC
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[c] epoch  210/464 ( 45.3%):  0.549876 BTC
[c] epoch  211/464 ( 45.5%):  0.462283 BTC
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[c] epoch  214/464 ( 46.1%):  0.426573 BTC
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[c] epoch  216/464 ( 46.6%):  0.551966 BTC
[c] epoch  217/464 ( 46.8%):  0.526425 BTC
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[c] epoch  219/464 ( 47.2%):  0.631776 BTC
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[c] epoch  232/464 ( 50.0%):  2.193335 BTC
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[c] epoch  308/464 ( 66.4%):  0.119547 BTC
[c] epoch  309/464 ( 66.6%):  0.450324 BTC
[c] epoch  310/464 ( 66.8%):  0.172817 BTC
[c] epoch  311/464 ( 67.0%):  0.125822 BTC
[c] epoch  312/464 ( 67.2%):  0.336057 BTC
[c] epoch  313/464 ( 67.5%):  0.743867 BTC
[c] epoch  314/464 ( 67.7%):  0.805886 BTC
[c] epoch  315/464 ( 67.9%):  0.152039 BTC
[c] epoch  316/464 ( 68.1%):  0.245071 BTC
[c] epoch  317/464 ( 68.3%):  0.302946 BTC
[c] epoch  318/464 ( 68.5%):  0.666441 BTC
[c] epoch  319/464 ( 68.8%):  1.084556 BTC
[c] epoch  320/464 ( 69.0%):  0.800581 BTC
[c] epoch  321/464 ( 69.2%):  0.724113 BTC
[c] epoch  322/464 ( 69.4%):  0.493065 BTC
[c] epoch  323/464 ( 69.6%):  0.529117 BTC
[c] epoch  324/464 ( 69.8%):  0.514920 BTC
[c] epoch  325/464 ( 70.0%):  1.286468 BTC
[c] epoch  326/464 ( 70.3%):  0.867154 BTC
[c] epoch  327/464 ( 70.5%):  0.510621 BTC
[c] epoch  328/464 ( 70.7%):  0.595763 BTC
[c] epoch  329/464 ( 70.9%):  0.760863 BTC
[c] epoch  330/464 ( 71.1%):  0.594204 BTC
[c] epoch  331/464 ( 71.3%):  0.783269 BTC
[c] epoch  332/464 ( 71.6%):  0.716215 BTC
[c] epoch  333/464 ( 71.8%):  1.021176 BTC
[c] epoch  334/464 ( 72.0%):  1.038640 BTC
[c] epoch  335/464 ( 72.2%):  0.822579 BTC
[c] epoch  336/464 ( 72.4%):  0.602806 BTC
[c] epoch  337/464 ( 72.6%):  0.711487 BTC
[c] epoch  338/464 ( 72.8%):  1.445665 BTC
[c] epoch  339/464 ( 73.1%):  0.548671 BTC
[c] epoch  340/464 ( 73.3%):  0.707299 BTC
[c] epoch  341/464 ( 73.5%):  0.279801 BTC
[c] epoch  342/464 ( 73.7%):  0.385335 BTC
[c] epoch  343/464 ( 73.9%):  0.212287 BTC
[c] epoch  344/464 ( 74.1%):  0.107089 BTC
[c] epoch  345/464 ( 74.4%):  0.094589 BTC
[c] epoch  346/464 ( 74.6%):  0.086283 BTC
[c] epoch  347/464 ( 74.8%):  0.076713 BTC
[c] epoch  348/464 ( 75.0%):  0.101581 BTC
[c] epoch  349/464 ( 75.2%):  0.084688 BTC
[c] epoch  350/464 ( 75.4%):  0.114920 BTC
[c] epoch  351/464 ( 75.6%):  0.081455 BTC
[c] epoch  352/464 ( 75.9%):  0.098636 BTC
[c] epoch  353/464 ( 76.1%):  0.074696 BTC
[c] epoch  354/464 ( 76.3%):  0.076094 BTC
[c] epoch  355/464 ( 76.5%):  0.076787 BTC
[c] epoch  356/464 ( 76.7%):  0.097882 BTC
[c] epoch  357/464 ( 76.9%):  0.054489 BTC
[c] epoch  358/464 ( 77.2%):  0.085862 BTC
[c] epoch  359/464 ( 77.4%):  0.079599 BTC
[c] epoch  360/464 ( 77.6%):  0.077209 BTC
[c] epoch  361/464 ( 77.8%):  0.068087 BTC
[c] epoch  362/464 ( 78.0%):  0.053759 BTC
[c] epoch  363/464 ( 78.2%):  0.092279 BTC
[c] epoch  364/464 ( 78.4%):  0.053561 BTC
[c] epoch  365/464 ( 78.7%):  0.097092 BTC
[c] epoch  366/464 ( 78.9%):  0.138690 BTC
[c] epoch  367/464 ( 79.1%):  0.123069 BTC
[c] epoch  368/464 ( 79.3%):  0.114799 BTC
[c] epoch  369/464 ( 79.5%):  0.098183 BTC
[c] epoch  370/464 ( 79.7%):  0.158715 BTC
[c] epoch  371/464 ( 80.0%):  0.104958 BTC
[c] epoch  372/464 ( 80.2%):  0.100480 BTC
[c] epoch  373/464 ( 80.4%):  0.076672 BTC
[c] epoch  374/464 ( 80.6%):  0.112636 BTC
[c] epoch  375/464 ( 80.8%):  0.086237 BTC
[c] epoch  376/464 ( 81.0%):  0.076163 BTC
[c] epoch  377/464 ( 81.2%):  0.086152 BTC
[c] epoch  378/464 ( 81.5%):  0.131191 BTC
[c] epoch  379/464 ( 81.7%):  0.174384 BTC
[c] epoch  380/464 ( 81.9%):  0.195271 BTC
[c] epoch  381/464 ( 82.1%):  0.105087 BTC
[c] epoch  382/464 ( 82.3%):  0.106196 BTC
[c] epoch  383/464 ( 82.5%):  0.075778 BTC
[c] epoch  384/464 ( 82.8%):  0.101233 BTC
[c] epoch  385/464 ( 83.0%):  0.136935 BTC
[c] epoch  386/464 ( 83.2%):  0.133078 BTC
[c] epoch  387/464 ( 83.4%):  0.161844 BTC
[c] epoch  388/464 ( 83.6%):  0.185118 BTC
[c] epoch  389/464 ( 83.8%):  0.187657 BTC
[c] epoch  390/464 ( 84.1%):  0.151888 BTC
[c] epoch  391/464 ( 84.3%):  0.304479 BTC
[c] epoch  392/464 ( 84.5%):  1.485880 BTC
[c] epoch  393/464 ( 84.7%):  0.482842 BTC
[c] epoch  394/464 ( 84.9%):  0.427993 BTC
[c] epoch  395/464 ( 85.1%):  0.275507 BTC
[c] epoch  396/464 ( 85.3%):  0.128182 BTC
[c] epoch  397/464 ( 85.6%):  0.146895 BTC
[c] epoch  398/464 ( 85.8%):  0.156684 BTC
[c] epoch  399/464 ( 86.0%):  0.132113 BTC
[c] epoch  400/464 ( 86.2%):  0.152930 BTC
[c] epoch  401/464 ( 86.4%):  0.225132 BTC
[c] epoch  402/464 ( 86.6%):  0.244242 BTC
[c] epoch  403/464 ( 86.9%):  0.129878 BTC
[c] epoch  404/464 ( 87.1%):  0.158944 BTC
[c] epoch  405/464 ( 87.3%):  0.570341 BTC
[c] epoch  406/464 ( 87.5%):  1.110606 BTC
[c] epoch  407/464 ( 87.7%):  0.885611 BTC
[c] epoch  408/464 ( 87.9%):  2.107176 BTC
[c] epoch  409/464 ( 88.1%):  1.244270 BTC
[c] epoch  410/464 ( 88.4%):  0.829339 BTC
[c] epoch  411/464 ( 88.6%):  0.391303 BTC
[c] epoch  412/464 ( 88.8%):  0.380523 BTC
[c] epoch  413/464 ( 89.0%):  0.253946 BTC
[c] epoch  414/464 ( 89.2%):  0.327948 BTC
[c] epoch  415/464 ( 89.4%):  0.238169 BTC
[c] epoch  416/464 ( 89.7%):  0.277854 BTC
[c] epoch  417/464 ( 89.9%):  1.972608 BTC
[c] epoch  418/464 ( 90.1%):  0.473881 BTC
[c] epoch  419/464 ( 90.3%):  0.168352 BTC
[c] epoch  420/464 ( 90.5%):  0.256359 BTC
[c] epoch  421/464 ( 90.7%):  0.514394 BTC
[c] epoch  422/464 ( 90.9%):  0.131633 BTC
[c] epoch  423/464 ( 91.2%):  0.104082 BTC
[c] epoch  424/464 ( 91.4%):  0.062316 BTC
[c] epoch  425/464 ( 91.6%):  0.056328 BTC
[c] epoch  426/464 ( 91.8%):  0.062110 BTC
[c] epoch  427/464 ( 92.0%):  0.048962 BTC
[c] epoch  428/464 ( 92.2%):  0.051359 BTC
[c] epoch  429/464 ( 92.5%):  0.064794 BTC
[c] epoch  430/464 ( 92.7%):  0.203948 BTC
[c] epoch  431/464 ( 92.9%):  0.095137 BTC
[c] epoch  432/464 ( 93.1%):  0.106403 BTC
[c] epoch  433/464 ( 93.3%):  0.106739 BTC
[c] epoch  434/464 ( 93.5%):  0.101038 BTC
[c] epoch  435/464 ( 93.8%):  0.070889 BTC
[c] epoch  436/464 ( 94.0%):  0.053217 BTC
[c] epoch  437/464 ( 94.2%):  0.049139 BTC
[c] epoch  438/464 ( 94.4%):  0.032875 BTC
[c] epoch  439/464 ( 94.6%):  0.042338 BTC
[c] epoch  440/464 ( 94.8%):  0.049209 BTC
[c] epoch  441/464 ( 95.0%):  0.044376 BTC
[c] epoch  442/464 ( 95.3%):  0.035264 BTC
[c] epoch  443/464 ( 95.5%):  0.037063 BTC
[c] epoch  444/464 ( 95.7%):  0.048347 BTC
[c] epoch  445/464 ( 95.9%):  0.040912 BTC
[c] epoch  446/464 ( 96.1%):  0.039091 BTC
[c] epoch  447/464 ( 96.3%):  0.028212 BTC
[c] epoch  448/464 ( 96.6%):  0.036424 BTC
[c] epoch  449/464 ( 96.8%):  0.024352 BTC
[c] epoch  450/464 ( 97.0%):  0.032018 BTC
[c] epoch  451/464 ( 97.2%):  0.030715 BTC
[c] epoch  452/464 ( 97.4%):  0.023885 BTC
[c] epoch  453/464 ( 97.6%):  0.028718 BTC
[c] epoch  454/464 ( 97.8%):  0.023942 BTC
[c] epoch  455/464 ( 98.1%):  0.016391 BTC
[c] epoch  456/464 ( 98.3%):  0.023399 BTC
[c] epoch  457/464 ( 98.5%):  0.016847 BTC
[c] epoch  458/464 ( 98.7%):  0.019132 BTC
[c] epoch  459/464 ( 98.9%):  0.021166 BTC
[c] epoch  460/464 ( 99.1%):  0.023489 BTC
[c] epoch  461/464 ( 99.4%):  0.020205 BTC
[c] epoch  462/464 ( 99.6%):  0.017200 BTC
[c] epoch  463/464 ( 99.8%):  0.016895 BTC
[c] epoch  464/464 (100.0%):  0.023279 BTC
Done. Scanned 464 epochs.

As we can observe, it was noticeably more than it is today. Is this expected behavior? Of course it. Since BTC rises in value, it is expected that people will pay less satoshis in transaction fees. A more useful graph is the following:

As we can see, in terms of USD value, the average block revenue hasn't dropped dramatically, if at any at all, excluding some epochs when the fees went crazy. It has remained pretty steady, at $1,000 to $5,000.

Code:

 Epoch   Avg fee (BTC)     BTC price   Avg fee (USD)
------------------------------------------------------
   144        0.087274  $     553.00  $        48.26
   145        0.076361  $     634.95  $        48.49
   146        0.068630  $     585.58  $        40.19
   147        0.095832  $     452.00  $        43.32
   148        0.085372  $     498.20  $        42.53
   149        0.072360  $     448.00  $        32.42
   150        0.061204  $     442.45  $        27.08
   151        0.062881  $     521.10  $        32.77
   152        0.055319  $     661.48  $        36.59
   153        0.072363  $     608.00  $        44.00
   154        0.085314  $     590.00  $        50.34
   155        0.081748  $     636.18  $        52.01
   156        0.067729  $     602.90  $        40.83
   157        0.069226  $     585.02  $        40.50
   158        0.068668  $     490.00  $        33.65
   159        0.060910  $     478.87  $        29.17
   160        0.055043  $     476.92  $        26.25
   161        0.088424  $     410.19  $        36.27
   162        0.096959  $     363.61  $        35.26
   163        0.081917  $     384.07  $        31.46
   164        0.088014  $     330.23  $        29.06
   165        0.096823  $     374.92  $        36.30
   166        0.090115  $     379.62  $        34.21
   167        0.101978  $     329.84  $        33.64
   168        0.069416  $     311.00  $        21.59
   169        0.081440  $     267.02  $        21.75
   170        0.091458  $     263.52  $        24.10
   171        0.092512  $     219.93  $        20.35
   172        0.099058  $     235.98  $        23.38
   173        0.101322  $     275.00  $        27.86
   174        0.097132  $     267.75  $        26.01
   175        0.107638  $     253.67  $        27.30
   176        0.103984  $     222.61  $        23.15
   177        0.084070  $     239.47  $        20.13
   178        0.101892  $     236.63  $        24.11
   179        0.113873  $     228.34  $        26.00
   180        0.108623  $     231.50  $        25.15
   181        0.219105  $     251.21  $        55.04
   182        0.156343  $     291.64  $        45.60
   183        0.238972  $     288.78  $        69.01
   184        0.179695  $     279.32  $        50.19
   185        0.211936  $     233.49  $        49.48
   186        0.207321  $     227.24  $        47.11
   187        0.139018  $     232.17  $        32.28
   188        0.174216  $     236.17  $        41.14
   189        0.170982  $     252.47  $        43.17
   190        0.216407  $     304.79  $        65.96
   191        0.149068  $     336.29  $        50.13
   192        0.184531  $     323.48  $        59.69
   193        0.217409  $     387.30  $        84.20
   194        0.210102  $     463.00  $        97.28
   195        0.208050  $     428.23  $        89.09
   196        0.257189  $     437.00  $       112.39
   197        0.259158  $     391.66  $       101.50
   198        0.242229  $     375.29  $        90.91
   199        0.333196  $     419.98  $       139.94
   200        0.277600  $     408.40  $       113.37
   201        0.226666  $     418.49  $        94.86
   202        0.656480  $     414.83  $       272.33
   203        0.252270  $     423.87  $       106.93
   204        0.241771  $     445.29  $       107.66
   205        0.367199  $     450.78  $       165.53
   206        0.386631  $     444.10  $       171.70
   207        0.432396  $     578.07  $       249.95
   208        0.436612  $     724.04  $       316.12
   209        0.334481  $     681.98  $       228.11
   210        0.549876  $     673.46  $       370.32
   211        0.462283  $     530.74  $       245.35
   212        0.441093  $     565.69  $       249.52
   213        0.378611  $     571.50  $       216.38
   214        0.426573  $     604.02  $       257.66
   215        0.395978  $     599.33  $       237.32
   216        0.551966  $     614.74  $       339.32
   217        0.526425  $     653.25  $       343.89
   218        0.503505  $     703.48  $       354.21
   219        0.631776  $     736.84  $       465.52
   220        0.655738  $     750.81  $       492.33
   221        0.653687  $     777.09  $       507.97
   222        0.710426  $     975.89  $       693.30
   223        0.627427  $     903.66  $       566.98
   224        0.906864  $     922.33  $       836.43
   225        1.087175  $   1,034.07  $     1,124.22
   226        1.283889  $   1,054.55  $     1,353.93
   227        1.534421  $   1,287.00  $     1,974.80
   228        1.314352  $   1,170.20  $     1,538.05
   229        1.396010  $   1,034.74  $     1,444.51
   230        1.394964  $   1,212.17  $     1,690.93
   231        1.939103  $   1,288.02  $     2,497.60
   232        2.193335  $   1,720.26  $     3,773.11
   233        2.962992  $   2,099.98  $     6,222.22
   234        2.797911  $   2,529.53  $     7,077.40
   235        2.587191  $   2,629.76  $     6,803.69
   236        1.617057  $   2,421.26  $     3,915.32
   237        1.319841  $   2,338.49  $     3,086.44
   238        0.938383  $   2,516.93  $     2,361.84
   239        1.991237  $   3,340.28  $     6,651.29
   240        2.480915  $   4,133.67  $    10,255.28
   241        0.817340  $   4,612.12  $     3,769.67
   242        0.800784  $   3,678.53  $     2,945.71
   243        1.089418  $   4,405.01  $     4,798.90
   244        1.024424  $   5,825.99  $     5,968.28
   245        1.794168  $   5,889.82  $    10,567.33
   246        2.400988  $   6,569.22  $    15,772.62
   247        1.455064  $   8,212.78  $    11,950.12
   248        3.272678  $  13,843.93  $    45,306.72
   249        5.754424  $  18,911.79  $   108,826.45
   250        4.097274  $  13,796.00  $    56,525.99
   251        2.748043  $  13,791.19  $    37,898.78
   252        1.268688  $  11,392.03  $    14,452.93
   253        0.455787  $   7,712.37  $     3,515.20
   254        0.310170  $  11,171.78  $     3,465.15
   255        0.229110  $  11,516.83  $     2,638.62
   256        0.157731  $   7,885.08  $     1,243.72
   257        0.154968  $   6,937.56  $     1,075.10
   258        0.201031  $   7,895.25  $     1,587.19
   259        0.247390  $   9,294.67  $     2,299.40
   260        0.244565  $   9,015.88  $     2,204.97
   261        0.103215  $   7,576.78  $       782.04
   262        0.128399  $   7,619.43  $       978.33
   263        0.364620  $   6,712.50  $     2,447.51
   264        0.120184  $   6,626.44  $       796.39
   265        0.130133  $   6,732.81  $       876.16
   266        0.147215  $   8,219.92  $     1,210.10
   267        0.156929  $   6,138.96  $       963.38
   268        0.191212  $   6,691.39  $     1,279.48
   269        0.111039  $   6,501.19  $       721.89
   270        0.139563  $   6,496.02  $       906.60
   271        0.171238  $   6,483.73  $     1,110.26
   272        0.132816  $   6,509.61  $       864.58
   273        0.168819  $   6,373.08  $     1,075.89
   274        0.285754  $   5,592.58  $     1,598.10
   275        0.223499  $   4,140.60  $       925.42
   276        0.126504  $   3,714.09  $       469.85
   277        0.115614  $   3,737.91  $       432.15
   278        0.154006  $   3,531.96  $       543.94
   279        0.147328  $   3,554.50  $       523.68
   280        0.165250  $   3,686.29  $       609.16
   281        0.209129  $   3,766.89  $       787.76
   282        0.140182  $   3,928.17  $       550.66
   283        0.446148  $   4,011.92  $     1,789.91
   284        0.579214  $   5,053.52  $     2,927.07
   285        0.493732  $   5,309.28  $     2,621.36
   286        0.919810  $   5,657.14  $     5,203.49
   287        0.973456  $   7,362.22  $     7,166.80
   288        0.942460  $   8,272.46  $     7,796.46
   289        0.674600  $   8,237.88  $     5,557.27
   290        0.633169  $  12,932.55  $     8,188.49
   291        0.366333  $  12,313.08  $     4,510.68
   292        0.286150  $  10,323.62  $     2,954.10
   293        0.368244  $  10,980.23  $     4,043.40
   294        0.279505  $  10,317.60  $     2,883.82
   295        0.247063  $   9,600.90  $     2,372.03
   296        0.161367  $  10,363.90  $     1,672.39
   297        0.261947  $   8,055.64  $     2,110.15
   298        0.147605  $   8,586.90  $     1,267.47
   299        0.277309  $   7,469.56  $     2,071.38
   300        0.183396  $   9,204.24  $     1,688.02
   301        0.160592  $   7,617.07  $     1,223.24
   302        0.173441  $   7,395.97  $     1,282.77
   303        0.099840  $   7,150.86  $       713.95
   304        0.113148  $   7,175.68  $       811.91
   305        0.155304  $   8,842.42  $     1,373.26
   306        0.154168  $   8,895.78  $     1,371.45
   307        0.188858  $   9,854.79  $     1,861.16
   308        0.119547  $   9,663.75  $     1,155.27
   309        0.450324  $   8,039.38  $     3,620.32
   310        0.172817  $   6,698.46  $     1,157.61
   311        0.125822  $   7,205.55  $       906.61
   312        0.336057  $   6,840.24  $     2,298.71
   313        0.743867  $   8,885.93  $     6,609.95
   314        0.805886  $   9,785.74  $     7,886.19
   315        0.152039  $   9,794.56  $     1,489.15
   316        0.245071  $   9,526.00  $     2,334.54
   317        0.302946  $   9,133.97  $     2,767.10
   318        0.666441  $   9,295.90  $     6,195.17
   319        1.084556  $  11,042.40  $    11,976.10
   320        0.800581  $  11,893.03  $     9,521.33
   321        0.724113  $  11,653.02  $     8,438.10
   322        0.493065  $  10,367.74  $     5,111.97
   323        0.529117  $  11,081.43  $     5,863.37
   324        0.514920  $  10,551.77  $     5,433.32
   325        1.286468  $  11,366.51  $    14,622.65
   326        0.867154  $  13,575.17  $    11,771.77
   327        0.510621  $  16,725.15  $     8,540.21
   328        0.595763  $  18,191.60  $    10,837.89
   329        0.760863  $  19,164.48  $    14,581.54
   330        0.594204  $  26,246.58  $    15,595.81
   331        0.783269  $  40,240.72  $    31,519.30
   332        0.716215  $  33,002.38  $    23,636.79
   333        1.021176  $  38,278.61  $    39,089.19
   334        1.038640  $  55,916.50  $    58,077.11
   335        0.822579  $  48,861.38  $    40,192.34
   336        0.602806  $  58,075.10  $    35,008.02
   337        0.711487  $  58,736.92  $    41,790.53
   338        1.445665  $  63,252.63  $    91,442.10
   339        0.548671  $  57,857.50  $    31,744.74
   340        0.707299  $  49,007.09  $    34,662.65
   341        0.279801  $  34,647.67  $     9,694.44
   342        0.385335  $  39,066.82  $    15,053.82
   343        0.212287  $  33,856.86  $     7,187.37
   344        0.107089  $  31,520.66  $     3,375.53
   345        0.094589  $  42,214.15  $     3,992.98
   346        0.086283  $  44,417.78  $     3,832.49
   347        0.076713  $  48,972.09  $     3,756.79
   348        0.101581  $  46,809.17  $     4,754.91
   349        0.084688  $  40,619.27  $     3,439.98
   350        0.114920  $  49,143.95  $     5,647.63
   351        0.081455  $  61,971.59  $     5,047.88
   352        0.098636  $  61,373.44  $     6,053.61
   353        0.074696  $  64,420.94  $     4,812.01
   354        0.076094  $  54,801.15  $     4,170.04
   355        0.076787  $  47,137.46  $     3,619.56
   356        0.097882  $  50,814.92  $     4,973.87
   357        0.054489  $  41,528.04  $     2,262.82
   358        0.085862  $  40,684.42  $     3,493.23
   359        0.079599  $  37,092.40  $     2,952.52
   360        0.077209  $  43,948.81  $     3,393.26
   361        0.068087  $  42,464.40  $     2,891.29
   362        0.053759  $  40,946.78  $     2,201.27
   363        0.092279  $  47,064.16  $     4,343.04
   364        0.053561  $  41,148.06  $     2,203.93
   365        0.097092  $  39,249.28  $     3,810.79
   366        0.138690  $  31,003.93  $     4,299.93
   367        0.123069  $  29,518.59  $     3,632.84
   368        0.114799  $  31,117.83  $     3,572.28
   369        0.098183  $  19,953.71  $     1,959.11
   370        0.158715  $  20,545.61  $     3,260.90
   371        0.104958  $  23,154.09  $     2,430.20
   372        0.100480  $  22,608.30  $     2,271.69
   373        0.076672  $  23,332.09  $     1,788.91
   374        0.112636  $  19,793.02  $     2,229.41
   375        0.086237  $  20,172.56  $     1,739.63
   376        0.076163  $  19,104.89  $     1,455.08
   377        0.086152  $  19,441.88  $     1,674.95
   378        0.131191  $  19,565.91  $     2,566.87
   379        0.174384  $  20,920.33  $     3,648.17
   380        0.195271  $  16,260.41  $     3,175.18
   381        0.105087  $  16,967.02  $     1,783.01
   382        0.106196  $  16,439.89  $     1,745.85
   383        0.075778  $  16,671.54  $     1,263.34
   384        0.101233  $  20,880.99  $     2,113.85
   385        0.136935  $  23,032.23  $     3,153.93
   386        0.133078  $  21,861.84  $     2,909.32
   387        0.161844  $  23,192.02  $     3,753.48
   388        0.185118  $  20,224.85  $     3,743.98
   389        0.187657  $  28,332.42  $     5,316.78
   390        0.151888  $  28,039.94  $     4,258.93
   391        0.304479  $  28,829.57  $     8,778.00
   392        1.485880  $  28,851.84  $    42,870.38
   393        0.482842  $  27,398.27  $    13,229.04
   394        0.427993  $  27,213.71  $    11,647.28
   395        0.275507  $  25,921.42  $     7,141.53
   396        0.128182  $  30,083.59  $     3,856.19
   397        0.146895  $  30,622.70  $     4,498.31
   398        0.156684  $  29,344.56  $     4,597.83
   399        0.132113  $  29,565.82  $     3,906.02
   400        0.152930  $  26,036.91  $     3,981.83
   401        0.225132  $  25,785.30  $     5,805.11
   402        0.244242  $  26,763.76  $     6,536.82
   403        0.129878  $  27,532.51  $     3,575.87
   404        0.158944  $  27,167.87  $     4,318.16
   405        0.570341  $  34,532.39  $    19,695.25
   406        1.110606  $  37,058.98  $    41,157.93
   407        0.885611  $  37,800.94  $    33,476.94
   408        2.107176  $  43,709.41  $    92,103.40
   409        1.244270  $  43,996.78  $    54,743.86
   410        0.829339  $  44,181.10  $    36,641.10
   411        0.391303  $  41,659.40  $    16,301.46
   412        0.380523  $  43,183.04  $    16,432.12
   413        0.253946  $  51,946.01  $    13,191.50
   414        0.327948  $  61,172.49  $    20,061.37
   415        0.238169  $  73,094.37  $    17,408.85
   416        0.277854  $  69,446.79  $    19,296.06
   417        1.972608  $  70,561.73  $   139,190.64
   418        0.473881  $  64,271.73  $    30,457.13
   419        0.168352  $  61,182.24  $    10,300.13
   420        0.256359  $  69,133.73  $    17,723.04
   421        0.514394  $  71,083.68  $    36,565.00
   422        0.131633  $  64,960.21  $     8,550.89
   423        0.104082  $  57,034.05  $     5,936.22
   424        0.062316  $  63,968.61  $     3,986.24
   425        0.056328  $  66,180.00  $     3,727.79
   426        0.062110  $  58,727.43  $     3,647.53
   427        0.048962  $  59,024.11  $     2,889.93
   428        0.051359  $  57,636.19  $     2,960.13
   429        0.064794  $  63,138.80  $     4,090.98
   430        0.203948  $  62,124.37  $    12,670.14
   431        0.095137  $  67,368.20  $     6,409.18
   432        0.106403  $  67,809.49  $     7,215.14
   433        0.106739  $  90,540.98  $     9,664.28
   434        0.101038  $  95,857.16  $     9,685.22
   435        0.070889  $ 104,342.21  $     7,396.68
   436        0.053217  $  93,536.42  $     4,977.76
   437        0.049139  $  94,478.37  $     4,642.57
   438        0.032875  $ 102,592.63  $     3,372.77
   439        0.042338  $  96,486.54  $     4,085.07
   440        0.049209  $  96,274.79  $     4,737.58
   441        0.044376  $  80,669.31  $     3,579.82
   442        0.035264  $  83,813.07  $     2,955.57
   443        0.037063  $  83,500.22  $     3,094.77
   444        0.048347  $  84,466.72  $     4,083.70
   445        0.040912  $  95,895.74  $     3,923.25
   446        0.039091  $ 103,158.51  $     4,032.56
   447        0.028212  $ 104,027.67  $     2,934.85
   448        0.036424  $ 106,121.85  $     3,865.42
   449        0.024352  $ 107,334.13  $     2,613.80
   450        0.032018  $ 117,562.14  $     3,764.08
   451        0.030715  $ 117,648.33  $     3,613.61
   452        0.023885  $ 116,676.54  $     2,786.82
   453        0.028718  $ 116,866.95  $     3,356.19
   454        0.023942  $ 110,732.71  $     2,651.18
   455        0.016391  $ 117,128.97  $     1,919.86
   456        0.023399  $ 118,617.71  $     2,775.50
   457        0.016847  $ 110,784.88  $     1,866.39
   458        0.019132  $ 112,923.91  $     2,160.41
   459        0.021166  $ 101,659.07  $     2,151.68
   460        0.023489  $  90,517.55  $     2,126.16
   461        0.020205  $  91,985.09  $     1,858.52
   462        0.017200  $  87,607.78  $     1,506.81
   463        0.016895  $  91,272.61  $     1,542.05
   464        0.023279  $  89,461.76  $     2,082.59

Should this worry us? I think so. But, we still have 20 to 30 years since the block subsidy becomes insignificant. In that period, second layer solutions will be developed that allow for batched payments and off-chain transactions, which will inevitably lead to more on-chain volume. The future is interesting, but it is indeed concerning how current security incentive will continue beyond 2050.

[gmaxwell]

fees pay for security, already bitcoin reliably generates more in fees alone than *several* other competing blockchains combined produce from both fees and inflation.  So Bitcoin without inflation is no less viable than those systems are today.

That said, it may be the case in the future that one needs to wait for more confirmations to consider transactions settled--  inflation provides a constant incentive to move the chain forward which is only imperfectly replicated by anti-fee-sniping behavior with fees.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Bitcoin is threatened by very real computers. The miners protect the network from this. Right? But their reward in Bitcoin is halved every four years. Consequently, the price of Bitcoin must double in the same period to maintain mining in the usual way.

It's not a must, not a mandate.

Bitcoin miners might join Bitcoin mining industry more or abandon and capitulate from this mining industry. The more or less Bitcoin miners in this industry will contribute to more or less mining hashrate that affects Bitcoin blockchain difficulty. So their mining cost might increase or decrease with time, that explains to you why what you thought is not a mandate at all.

Bitcoin blockchain was created by Satoshi Nakamoto that has two sources of mining income for Bitcoin miners. One is from Bitcoin block subsidy that halves very 210,000 blocks. Another one is Bitcoin transaction fees that can increase or decrease with time and this mining income is not depended on Bitcoin halving.

[tromp]

fees pay for security, already bitcoin reliably generates more in fees alone than *several* other competing blockchains combined produce from both fees and inflation.  So Bitcoin without inflation is no less viable than those systems are today.

The security budget for protecting an asset has to be proportional to its value.

With the rampant bike theft in most parts of the world, it's not unwise for those wishing to protect their bike
that they have to leave on the street overnigh, to spend as much on the locks as they did on the bike.

You can protect a $50 bike very well with a $50 lock, but you wouldn't use that lock on a $5000 bike.

So your comparison with other blockchains, whose combined daily total tx worth is only a fraction of Bitcoin's,
is not as relevant as it seems.

That said, it does look like many of those other blockchains are not going to be viable after 5 more halvings, as their very low fee levels won't be able to compensate.

[ABCbits]

I don't know how to solve this problem. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this.

From past discussion, it's common to see people hoping for much higher Bitcoin price (to offset lower mining reward) or on-chain TX volume (so miner earn more from TX fee). But the latter require block size increase, which receive little support from Bitcoin community. It's also worth to mention that some mining pool refuse to include TX with fee rate lower than 1 sat/vB[1].

So your comparison with other blockchains, whose combined daily total tx worth is only a fraction of Bitcoin's,
is not as relevant as it seems.

It's also worth to mention that other cryptocurrency pay the block creator in different way. For example, giving percentage of total coin they hold/stake. So making comparison become more difficult.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5565739.msg66063663#msg66063663