Vegas foot traffic as a predictor of economic crisis

[alani123]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lJcyDOjFLwQ

I watched the above video and there's some talk that based on the statistics of Las Vegas visits, the only time when visits had dropped so much other than COVID was before the great depression.

Could this be a reliable predictor to an upcoming economic crisis?

[Mhizlove]

From what I see I can tell that it's would be just a warning sign but I don't think it's that strong to proof con it's own because with entertainment or luxury spending like the  Vegas visit that drop show that people reduce the  expenses and also they are uncertain about the the outcome. Economy do have many indicators, so I don't think this alone can confirm or cause Crisis so I we should rather see it something that we can monitor and not draw conclusions immediately

[Free Market Capitalist]

That video was posted yesterday, but I remember seeing videos about the same thing last year. This one is from six months ago.

Las Vegas tourism down by double-digits | Morning in America

So, how long do we have to wait after the decline for the crisis to hit?

Could this be a reliable predictor to an upcoming economic crisis?

An indicator more than a predictor, as correlation doesn't imply causation.

[alani123]

For me there's two takeaways from this video.

First, gross foot traffic is down which has historically been associated with crises in the economy.

But past events don't necessarily predict the future and this time things could be different. Foot traffic in las Vegas could be a chicken or the egg problem.

Did the traffic decrease because the economy shifted or did the casino owners change the business model because the economy has shifted.

I think given the approach central banks had to the COVID crisis which was unlimited printing, the economy shifted even further towards favouring the elites. So it could be the case that casino owners saw this as an opportunity to cater exclusive to rich customers and completely eliminated providing affordable options and shows that would interest middle class audiences but we're ultimately not as profitable.

Now, if we're going to see the casino industry's moves as indicative to anything, it could be the case that more and more parts of the service economy will aim to start providing services mostly or only to rich people.

We have kind of already started seeing this in Europe. Most new gyms that open don't have affordable subscriptions, restaurants completely altering their menus to almost exclusively feature luxury dishes etc.

[Furball808]

It may be an economic crisis impeding. After all there have been reports of Americans struggling more and more these days.

Underemployment has been on the rise, according to the Economic Policy Institute, which has tracked the rate of underemployment since 1978. Today, 8 percent of the US population is underemployed, up 0.5 percent from 2024 and it is up 1.1 percent from 2023.

At the same time, many in the US are seeing their expenses increase.

The impact of tariffs has hit low-to-middle-income earners harder than others. Analysis from the Yale Budget Lab found that lower-income households are paying a higher percentage of their post-tax income on goods subject to tariffs as opposed to higher-income households, all while costs for necessities like healthcare are increasing.

Not only this though but we need to also factor in Online gambling. Online casinos now exist for a much cheaper price than going all the way to Vegas? I know it’s for the experience but more people are preferring to stay at home and play on their phones instead.