That’s why the hourglass idea feels more grounded to me. It doesn’t pretend to make exposed keys safe again, it just slows down a potential attacker at the consensus level. That seems more in line with how Bitcoin usually handles hard problems... mitigate the damage instead of trying to rewrite the past.
I tend to agree with this. The approach I presented in the previous post doesn't seem bulletproof.
Maybe Hourglass alone is enough. A multi phase Hourglass approach where the amount of BTC allowed to be spent from P2PK reduces over time, e.g. each difficulty period, could strengthen the incentive to transfer them as fast as possible. Each difficulty period change would work as a deadline and incentive the P2PK holders to finally transfer their coins to safer addresses.
There could even be an additional incentive for the P2PK key owners to transfer their coins before the Hourglass deadline: They could get a
free transaction to either a P2PKH or a quantum safe address (if available), which would not be counted towards the block weight. This would not be easy to organize as a soft fork. At least it should be possible to create some kind of "bonus" for them.
To avoid a fork and possible volatility, miners could also operate in an altruistic manner including zero-fee P2PK to P2PKH/post-quantum transfers from now on. This would of course not be fully altruistic, because each P2PK to P2PKH transfer prevents a future dump. What do miners think about that?
Why not just send them to unspent P2WPKH addresses instead of discussing this via BIPs and mailing list emails for weeks and months?
Well, tell that Satoshi, and the other 2009 miners.

I think every 2009/2010 mining reward moved is actually good news, not bad news as some dumb bears want to interpret. It's only 50 coins per output, nothing compared to the hundreds of thousands of BTC traded on exchanges each day. It's possible that this even slows down the migration to P2WPKH, as these old hodlers could think they could dump the price if they move their coins.
PS: Hourglass BIP draft is here:
https://github.com/cryptoquick/bips/blob/hourglass/bip-hourglass.mediawiki