The economies of most countries are under threat.

[hyudien]

The US-Israel vs Iran war has not reached a month but most countries have felt the impact, for example, I saw in some news that Dutch citizens have bought gasoline in Belgium, in my country is no exception, several gas stations have been closed due to not getting supplies, what the government needs to do now is just look for alternatives, because it is possible that the war will continue, which will result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continuing.

[Agbamoni]

It is already happening. Not just their economy will suffer, but there will be lots of lives lost in this war.
Recently, I woke up seeing videos of bombings in Lebanon. It was said that Israel is responsible for the bombing. I never knew the war had reached this extent, and how Lebanon got involved in the war, I do not know, but I will make my research ASAP. All the countries within the Gulf region should be prepared to be affected by the war, both economically and otherwise.

[sunsilk]

If the war situation does not normalize, then there will be a severe shortage of fuel oil, and even if some fuel oil is available, it will have to be purchased at a high price.

We don't want it to normalize but instead to deescalate. Because what you've said is happening right now.

Iran is firm on what they say that there will be continuous closing of Strait and expect a $200/oil barrel and that's a lot.

They really are against the world right now and they only have on ally that they allow to pass through the Strait where they deliver millions of barrel and that's China.

[slapper]

What is the ceiling on this escalation? Like where does it stop. Iran is not a small actor and more importantly its strategy seems to be specifically economic disruption. Disrupting the Strait is successful. Hitting regional production infrastructure works. This is almost a doctrine. And the doctrine is working in the sense that the damage is real and piling up.

Inflation means prices rise and then they potentially stabilize. What's going on now is a constraint problem. Some countries may simply not be able to access fuel at any price because the logistics infrastructure to get it there is broken or too dangerous or too expensive. And "too expensive" for a country like Pakistan at this time, based on where its foreign reserves were already. That's practically the same thing as unavailable.

The people who suffer most from the shortages of fuels in Dhaka or Karachi or Colombo are not the people who designed these structures of dependency. They're simply the people who reside in them.

And what mechanism is in place now to prevent this from getting to the worst-case scenario you're describing? I don't see a functioning one. The UN is largely symbolic under these conditions. Diplomatic channels are broken or paralysed. And the countries most affected have almost no leverage over any of the parties that are actually conducting this war.

That's a hard place to end up. But it seems like where we are.

[Swordsoffreedom]

The US-Israel vs Iran war has not reached a month but most countries have felt the impact, for example, I saw in some news that Dutch citizens have bought gasoline in Belgium, in my country is no exception, several gas stations have been closed due to not getting supplies, what the government needs to do now is just look for alternatives, because it is possible that the war will continue, which will result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continuing.

Most countries have certain reserves of oil to use in emergencies such as war or supply crises like the current one. What is puzzling is that the war only started 2 week ago and supply chain have only been disrupted in the last few day. But many countries appear to be facing a serious oil shortage. This makes me wonder if there's any manipulation behind this, because the shortage could not have happened so quickly

The Strait of Hormuz is only a shipping route for 20% of the total oil supply, not the entire oil supply. The solution is for the remaining countries to increase their oil production. I think if the remaining oil producing countries increase their output, we can absolutely make up for this shortfall. However, that will still depend heavily on the global political context and the interests of the countries involved

[dezoel]

The US-Israel vs Iran war has not reached a month but most countries have felt the impact, for example, I saw in some news that Dutch citizens have bought gasoline in Belgium, in my country is no exception, several gas stations have been closed due to not getting supplies, what the government needs to do now is just look for alternatives, because it is possible that the war will continue, which will result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continuing.

I mean, the majority of their revenue comes from oil and gasoline supply so it's unlikely they would close the Strait of Hormuz, rather restrict some regions which they have done already.

I still can’t make sense of what this war is really about or how it’s ever going to end, given the current developments and the news I keep seeing. Even once the war ends, there will be chaos because Iran has a new leader, and it remains to be seen what decisions he will take and whether they will be more aggressive.

Personally, I was expecting more action from Russia but they are perhaps laughing at all the madness.