The news about insider trading on Polymarket is particularly relevant here. I'd really like to see not just one soldier guilty, but all those who traded on inside information identified. But it's unlikely the main manipulators will be jailed. Volatility, yes, in the oil market, for example, has sharply increased to levels unseen since the COVID-19 pandemic, and modern trades, as we know, bring traders enormous profits. And now Bloomberg is reporting that the trades followed a specific pattern. These perfectly planned transactions occurred immediately before Donald Trump's statements and social media posts, prompting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch an investigation for signs of insider trading. But this could no longer be ignored.
Meanwhile, prominent lawmakers, primarily Democrats, argue that some of the recent profitable trades seem too perfect to be based solely on skill or luck. We'll see where they end up. Well, they've finally found their first scapegoat: the Justice Department has arrested a US Army soldier accused of using confidential information to place bets on the prediction market PoliMarket in anticipation of the arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Madur. I recall that this also caused quite a stir earlier this year, but they seem to have found the culprit...
