Why's gold not pumping?

[Smack That Ace]

According to my research, gold is a safe haven, but some news is saying that USD is more of a safe haven during these wars.

Which news is that? I do not think any news should be so stupid to say something like this. Do not believe the news.

During world war two, dollar was still backed by gold but that has changed and dollar is just still a fiat that can fall in price at anytime. Gold will always be superior to dollar over a long period of time.

In fact, gold is more reliable and valuable than the USD. However, it is true that many sources suggest the USD is also a safe haven during time of war or geopolitical crisis.
As far as I recall, they explained that because the USD is highly liquid, the American economy was least affected. Not to mention, it accounts for approximately 58% of the world’s total foreign exchange reserves.

However, given the strong polarization of global geopolitics today. USD will soon no longer be considered a safe haven. That could be why central banks are increasing their gold reserves and decreasing their USD reserves.

[noorman0]

-snip-
It is like another gold repeats its 16 year cycle. Russia vs Ukraine, Israel vs Palestine, US vs Venezuela, US and Israel vs Iran are all contributors for the surge of gold in this cycle recent years.
https://goldbroker.com/news/sixteen-year-gold-cycle-3125

Look at this table (from that article),

1985-1996 was only 2.53%. Should that be excluded from the cycle?
If so, that's 31 years, then 15 years, not a consistent pattern. So when you says "16 year cycle", it's likely pattern fitting after the fact.

-snip-
With investors or speculators, it can be these things but with people who need something to survive, it's water. It seems the Iran started to attack on water systems and facilities of its neighbor countries.

I believe energy needs must also be considered realistically, not just in terms of investment returns. Society relies on oil as a primary supporter of mobility and crucial infrastructure almost everywhere in the world.

[free-bit.co.in]

That said, geopolitical tensions usually pushes investors to safe haven assets, resulting in a quick rise in the price of gold and silver, but that has not been too evident in this current war between U.S. and Iran. There are possible reasons for that, it could possibly be because of the economic implications of this war, which could keep interest rate high

It is because gold has been moving significantly and heavily bought in 2025 to this year. Gold moves from $2300 to more than $5400 before it fall now but it is still over $4900. I do not think an asset can significantly increase like that and continue to increase, there must be a time that it will retrace a little and it may be long before gold will continue to increase. I am not expect gold to increase for now.

This is perhap the most plausible explanation for the current state of gold. Gold has doubled in value in just one year, and for an asset of that size, that doubling is a very significant figure. Therefore, we should not be surprised gold could not continue to rise when war broke out. Because no asset can grow in a straight line without going through period of correction or accumulation. If gold continue to rise, that would be truly frightening.

However, if global geopolitical tensions do not ease, I would not be surprised if after the correction phase, it reaches $6k.

[bangjoe]

Remember the trading slogan, "buy the rumor, sell the news." If I remember correctly, gold actually surged in the days when US-Iran tensions escalated. Once the war actually broke out, major traders were already in profitable positions. However, the real safe haven from this war is energy commodities, as the effects of scarcity are truly felt worldwide. Capital inflows into the gold market will be limited, with most going to the oil market.

This is true, the rise in gold does not occur when the war has occurred but before that where the media continues to talk about the potential for war or just rumors and that's where the new smart traders and investors come in because most of them take the rumors not the day of the war therefore gold does not rise when Iran's attack on US bases and also on Israel on a large scale has no impact on the price of gold.
 
Oil has always been an important commodity in wars especially now that it is related to global oil, it will definitely increase in price.

I read the news a few days ago that Iran could push oil prices to $200 dollars per barrel he said if many intervene in this war.