The real reason of the ban could be the corruption inside the government itself.
It looks like some people bought shares on the correct inflation rate (released monthly in Argentina) before it was oficially announced.
Date March 13th (5 days before Polymarket gets banned):
https://www.iprofesional.com/economia/450192-detectan-operaciones-sospechosas-minutos-antes-conocerse-inflacion-se-filtro-el-dato
Activity on betting sites and the high demand for inflation-indexed bonds led to speculation that some individuals may have had access to insider information.
Until just a few minutes before the official data was released, the prevailing consensus on Polymarket was that the CPI would fall between 2.5% and 2.7%. But around 3:30 p.m., there was a shift, and the most popular prediction became the 2.8%–3% range—exactly the figure ultimately released by INDEC at 4:00 p.m. The suspicion is that some individuals had early access to the information through insider sources.
I don't think the ban is related to insider trading, but it's certainly funny that officials are clearly leaking information and profiting from insider trading, either themselves or with the help of third parties.
Yesterday (or maybe a few days earlier), Polymarket published a declaration pledging to combat insider trading (and other "bad" practices). I wonder what they can do in this case? You can't accuse anyone without evidence, and they can't even theoretically have any evidence.
