Is the 2026 Supercycle still on the table?

[Bobrox]

Firstly nice decision you bought bitcoin at dip price, but talking about supercycle for this year still can't predictable yet although many top influence of cryptocurrency already saying that. Your focus keep holding based on bought bitcoin at dip price and hold as long as possibility if your investment target as long term way, have been three months for this year bitcoin actually still not showing supercycle moment how many time correction after trying to break out but keep decline.
Focus accumulate how much as possibility and if you have enough money don't forget as back up fund preparing for bitcoin will make another dip price in this year.

[Shinpako09]

Since you plan to hold it for at least three years, just DCA until then. Of course, stop once it reaches the peak, then wait for the bear market before accumulating again. With how the market is moving, even those who were hoping for an altcoin season this year are starting to lose hope. As for a supercycle, maybe after the next btc halving. Right now, I don’t see any reason for a supercycle this year.

[barbara44]

Congrats on your first purchase. You were able to catch the dip if we consider 3 years term because eventually the price will inflate once the current tension releases. I would say 2026 super cycle idea is dead because the start was not good and also after a good bullish season, bearish coverage is expected for a year or two. For me, I see next 2 years bullish going through the fundamentals. 3 Years is great to start with, and I am sure you will be able to book really good profits in these 3 years.

You will also learn a lot in these 3 years. Good research mixed with technical analysis can make you earn really good profits in these 4 years by utilizing just 5% of your capital for trading and rest 95% for holding. If you would like to play safe, yes, investing and keeping it aside for 3 years is a really good decision. You have to do nothing but keep a small reminder on completing 3 years to check the investment. I would expect healthy profits after 3 years.

[Lucius]

Since we don't know what amounts are involved here, we can't give a more precise answer. Because if the OP decided to invest a few hundred $ then it doesn't make much sense whether he will buy BTC at $65k or $55k because he won't profit much from that difference, but if larger amounts of money are involved then it makes sense to calculate and wait for a possibly even lower price.

We are already almost 50% down from the last ATH and to me that seems like a good entry point, especially if the investment is long-term.

[taufik123]

You have done the right thing and started your mission to become a Holder for 3 years and you need to target at what price you will sell it or
maybe you will see the condition of Bitcoin as it approaches the 5th halving in 2028 because every halving the price of Bitcoin will be higher and hype is always going to happen.

Buying in stages or DCA is also a good idea, to accumulate your Bitcoin holdings at a cheaper price as the price continues to fall.
and have a reserve of money for a potential downside as you said when the potential downside can be up to $55k, that could be a low buying point and you can buy with that reserve,
Reserve money is always needed for the DCA strategy, because we will never know if the market will continue to move up or down below the predicted line.

[Creeper0]

Don't trust other people's comments for investing. Bitcoin predictions are nothing, some people just give their comments about Bitcoin. But those comments have no basis and have no great chance of turning into reality.

You have already started investing which I see positively. But if you are looking at the market to reinvest or waiting for a certain price, then I would call that thinking negative. No matter where the market goes, if you have the opportunity, buy immediately. The market may not go according to your expectations, so don't just waste time and keep buying regularly.

[EluguHcman]

I finally decided to buy the dip and made my first Bitcoin purchase, yesterday.

Congratulations on your first purchase of Bitcoin OP, I don't know if you are an Iranian or any of the geopolitical alliance whose economy is also crumbling as the Iran, Israel and US geopolitical war is affecting its economy ratio other wise, I don't think if the circumstance should have the influence to manipulate your decision on buying Bitcoin if your mind had been made and you have  acquired all basic requirements to hold on to your investment goal.

Of course the market is psychologically driven which as a result of bearishness can discourage beginner investors while those who understands the value of buying the DIP is an opportunity while holding in the long term is the key to achieve your goal while it takes courage for beginners to decide on buying.

[yhiaali3]

As I always say, for me, the decision to buy Bitcoin is good at any time, but of course it is better to choose times of decline to buy and take advantage of every dip to accumulate more.

Regarding your question, yes, I think it is better to buy in the stock market now and wait for a while to see if the trend is upward or downward due to the war with Iran. At least wait for the 10-day grace period that Trump gave to Iran, because after that there will either be an agreement or a very harsh war, and we will know where the market is going.

[Cryptoprincess101]

Are we still talking about a Supercycle even when the price of bitcoin has been dwindling in the past 6 months? Bitcoin Supercycle is doomed to fail because it was predicted in 2022, but it never happened. The conventional 4-year boom and bust cycle will continue unless the Supercycle appears in 2030. No signs of a bull run yet, i wonder how the market will experience a prolonged bullish trend this year.

[JoyMarsha]

I finally decided to buy the dip and made my first Bitcoin purchase, yesterday.
‎Despite the about the what is going at the Middle East
‎My question to the veterans here, Are we just seeing a standard midcycle correction, or do you think the 2026 Supercycle idea is dead? I’m planning to hodl for at least 3 years, but I’d love to know if I should keep some dry powder for a potential drop to $55k.

‎Glad to finally be part of the community.

That's good for you. You should be aware that no price you bought Bitcoin is wrong timing or mistakes as far as Bitcoin investment is concerned. 

If later in the year Bitcoin dips or increases further than we have it currently, know that it is to your advantage to buy the dip or sell at profits. Don't begin now to think of what happens next in the market because we can't predict correctly. But what I want to let you know is that Bitcoin 4 years cycle, which is made up of 2 years of bear market and 2 year bull run is yet unchanged. The 3 years you try to hodl Bitcoin for, Bitcoin may moon by then, giving you good profits, if you are buying this period

[l99l]

I finally decided to buy the dip and made my first Bitcoin purchase, yesterday.
‎Despite the about the what is going at the Middle East
‎My question to the veterans here, Are we just seeing a standard midcycle correction, or do you think the 2026 Supercycle idea is dead? I’m planning to hodl for at least 3 years, but I’d love to know if I should keep some dry powder for a potential drop to $55k.

‎Glad to finally be part of the community.

I think you did the right thing by taking advantage of the dips. I don't know if the supercycle is over, in the middle, or where we are, but the Bitcoin price seems like a good time to buy right now.
Maybe there will be further drops, maybe we won't see these prices for a long time, so I would prefer to buy in installments as I have cash on hand, that's my opinion.

[BALIK]

But what I want to let you know is that Bitcoin 4 years cycle, which is made up of 2 years of bear market and 2 year bull run is yet unchanged. The 3 years you try to hodl Bitcoin for, Bitcoin may moon by then, giving you good profits, if you are buying this period

It is worth noting 4 year cycle can be broken and changed at any time, there are no rules that compel Bitcoin to follow that pattern forever. Just like we have witnessed it reach a new ATH before the halving in this cycle, and breaking the belief that halving is the only factor driving Bitcoin growth

However, even if the market cycle is broken, the Bitcoin market will still experience period of both bulls and bears. Because the nature of financial market is based on supply and demand, liquidity and market sentiment. Therefore, if we persevere and hold on long enough, we will reap profit regardless of whether cycle is broken or not.

[LogitechMouse]

I finally decided to buy the dip and made my first Bitcoin purchase, yesterday.
‎Despite the about the what is going at the Middle East
‎My question to the veterans here, Are we just seeing a standard midcycle correction, or do you think the 2026 Supercycle idea is dead? I’m planning to hodl for at least 3 years, but I’d love to know if I should keep some dry powder for a potential drop to $55k.

‎Glad to finally be part of the community.

Good for you that you decided to accumulate some Bitcoins already. I'm pretty sure that there are many who are doing the same as well, and there are many who are waiting for Bitcoin to go to even lower prices so they can accumulate more.

The 2026 supercycle idea is dead. CZ predicted a few weeks ago that there's a chance that it might happen this year, but looking at how Bitcoin's price moves, I doubt that it will still happen. Of course, I might be wrong but the chances of a supercycle happening is going low and low. For me, I would say that the 4-year cycle that normally happens is still intact and indeed that's what happened. If you're planning to hold those coins that  you bought for 3 years then there's a high chance that you will end up making money ASSUMING that the 4-year cycle will still happen in the succeeding years.

Keep some spare money, and wait for lower prices. If you can't wait then you can just do weekly buying of Bitcoin regardless of what the price is. At the end of the day, we don't know where the market will be heading.

[philipma1957]

I finally decided to buy the dip and made my first Bitcoin purchase, yesterday.
‎Despite the about the what is going at the Middle East
‎My question to the veterans here, Are we just seeing a standard midcycle correction, or do you think the 2026 Supercycle idea is dead? I’m planning to hodl for at least 3 years, but I’d love to know if I should keep some dry powder for a potential drop to $55k.

‎Glad to finally be part of the community.

Good for you that you decided to accumulate some Bitcoins already. I'm pretty sure that there are many who are doing the same as well, and there are many who are waiting for Bitcoin to go to even lower prices so they can accumulate more.

The 2026 supercycle idea is dead. CZ predicted a few weeks ago that there's a chance that it might happen this year, but looking at how Bitcoin's price moves, I doubt that it will still happen. Of course, I might be wrong but the chances of a supercycle happening is going low and low. For me, I would say that the 4-year cycle that normally happens is still intact and indeed that's what happened. If you're planning to hold those coins that  you bought for 3 years then there's a high chance that you will end up making money ASSUMING that the 4-year cycle will still happen in the succeeding years.

Keep some spare money, and wait for lower prices. If you can't wait then you can just do weekly buying of Bitcoin regardless of what the price is. At the end of the day, we don't know where the market will be heading.

no it dies between sept 15 to nov 15 if at any time we go to 58k

if we never hit 58k and the low was the 59+k that was hit in feb 2026 it means we are in something else

do not know what but it would not be the 4 year cycle.  We already broke part of the common 4 year cycle when we did 70k before the April 1/2 ing in 2024.

Of course if we do hit in the zone I mention I would argue the 4 year cycle is alive and well.

for now it is dented but still could happen


Look back at gold from say 1993 to 2002.   we could be in that pattern  who's knows.


also if we go to 58k or lower say august or dec I would also say 4 year cycle looks fine.


but if the low was feb of 2026 the price cycle is not under 4 years and no longer matched to the coin 1/2ings.

[el kaka22]

A very first buy is always special. I would have waited a bit more, you are in the bear market and your first purchase was in the bear market. I really hope that you can wait, because it is going to take a few years for you to recover. You will get a great return on this, only if you could end up waiting.

Most of the time right around the halving time we end up with a result that is quite good and we should be waiting for that, but the reality is that we should not be expecting this, we could do a lot better if we could give it sometime. It means in 2029, we could be getting rich if you bought now. But are you capable of holding until that moment? That's the real question, I am sure that most people won't, I hope at least OP can.

[tygeade]

Bitcoin price has been very unstable lately and we can hardly tell which direction we are taking and when the cycle will repeat itself, news don't always transform into market actions Sometime Bitcoin has a way of going against the trend and new, within the last 24 hours one can see how Bitcoin drastically fell to around $65k+ before it suddenly gained back to 67,000+ in current market price this movement shows the volatility rate in the Bitcoin market.

Well, I think the Middle East situations is the reason behind the drop. Bitcoin is not war-proof, and we have seen in past that tensions between countries can make bitcoin lose value. I think further drop is coming if US is unable to hold seize fire on nuclear sites. Modern wars do not really last that long so I guess within a few months, everything should be back on track and at that time, bitcoins will start pumping which might make the 2026 super cycle true for OP. Let's not expect anything as of yet because it is just the start of 2026. We have seen just one quarter but third or fourth quarter can be the one that decides the yearly gain.

For OP, you made the right decision. Now, just hold and keep holding no matter what happens in between. Do not get carried away by the current situations because any time now the price can start reverting which might show temporary profit on your portfolio. Make sure to be firm and do not close before you reach you target.

[Wiwo]

If you buy at least 1BTC then you should continue to hold for at least 3 years before you think of taking your profits at least.

But if you bought a small fraction of bitcoin, you should now be focused on more DCA buying until you build a good portfolio that can give you that turn over when the market reaches that cycle you speculating and then you see if you keep them for more time or take profits at that point I'm time

I feel your excitement as owning your first Bitcoin, learn to securely store your bitcoin in your own wallet nit exchange since you have long term investment in mind.