Can Hajj be temporary geopolitical buffer?

[snowpega]

Iran has so far denied attacking Saudi Arabia, except for the drones they dropped on US military bases, especially in Riyadh. They are saying they have not attacked Jubail and other cities that have been reported on the news. Although there was news of Mossad agents getting caught right after a drone attack on a plant, Saudi officials also confirmed it, and it was being speculated that they had attacked the plant, not the Iranians as they were claiming they had not.

Anyway, there have been many speculations that I can't openly share here, but it is everywhere on the internet. I hoped that war will end but no development was made meeting, but the development that has been made is US was able to move warships near to Iran like way near than before, and Iran has accepted that they don't know where the mines are hehe. So they were ready to take US help to remove them.

But don't know if they were only remours or what as politics is all based on lies. I hope war won't effect any pilgrims, but if it did, then the situation will be the same as it was in Covid-19.

You are correct. And I really appreciate some Middle Eastern countries allowing missiles to come onto US bases, and Sudia is one of them. This thing really helps a lot for Iran against damaging US military bases in Middle Eastern countries. I was also reading such statements from some Middle East countries' officials that any attack on US bases will not be considered as an attack on us. Other than this, I was also reading such news that Iran was saying that they now don't know the exact location of mines in the sea, which is really funny, haha.

Besides this, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the US Navy is officially has reached to stop all those cargoes that are paying toll to Iran as an insurance fee for safe passage. And Trump is also saying at the same time that the US has more oil than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined, which I don't doubt they may have or maybe not, but according to some resources extracting that oil which is under the land of the US will cost more them than exporting from middle east.

[Faisal2202]

Iran has denied many attacks on civilian infrastructure of Arab countries including attack on Saudia Aramco oil facility. Don't forget that biggest beneficiary of this war is Israel and they don't want this war to end. Their are unconfirmed news that such attacks are carried out by Israel to ignite the fight going on between Iran and Arab countries. People are already preparing for Hajj and there is no news that Hajj 2026 will be on the model of COVID-19. Iran is fighting in self defence and in way will carry out an attack that will effect Hajj 2026.   

Iran is fighting in self-defense, and yes, it can affect Hajj 2026, but how can you say they will carry out an attack in a way that can affect Hajj 2026? I think they are retaliating, and to some extent they have been successful in weakening the US forces in the Middle East. But this whole war was the product of the US and Israel. They are the ones to blame, and no doubt Israel is the biggest beneficiary of this war. They are carrying out other operations too.

You can see that, on a larger level, they have stopped the news from spreading. Not just Israel, but every affected country has taken such steps to stop fear from spreading, but that does not mean there is no destruction. I have also heard they have tried to turn the war into a Shia-Sunni conflict, and you know how that can be. Anyway, I am saying what I am seeing on the internet and news channels, so I cannot say anything for sure. I just hope the war ends quickly, especially for the pilgrims. And to be honest, there is no force in the world that can put fear in the hearts of Muslims to stop them from performing Hajj, except Saudi Arabia. They can stop them because they have done it successfully before, so that is why I thought they could adopt that COVID-19 model. But you are also right, no such models or even rumors have been circulating, so everything will be fine. Also, Pakistan has made a defense pact with them, so no worries.

[Zlantann]

Considering the importance of this event for Saudi Arabian especially and Moslem around the world, Israel and US will pause the total or direct war but they will keep maintain tension by aggresive attack on Iranian proxies. Disrupting Hajj will harming US strategic partner as Makkah and Madinah is center point of Islamic world, any action which bring destruction effect on these two cities especially during religuous moment will bring Moslem backlash around the globe. For Iran, I think will continue use Hormuz strait as bargaining power for negotiation.

The US and Israel don't care about backlash from any religious organisation. Under Donald Trump, the sacred place of worship, Al-Aqsa Mosque, has been desecration be far-right Jewish groups. A few days ago, Isreal governemnt stopped  Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre during Palm Sunday. Recently, Donald Trump insulted Pope Leo. Yesterday the President of the US posted a picture of himself like Jesus Christ. All these actions received wide condemnation, but Trump and Benjamin don't care. So if you think they are scared of backlash, please reconsider your stance.

For Saudi Arabian beside oil revenue, religious tourism (Hajj & Umrah ) is the growth main engine, on their 2030 vision, they actively push tourism investment to reduce dependence on oil sector. Economically, 1 hajj pilgrim driving many sector as multiplier effect from labour, hotel, construction, infrastructure building and many MSMEs. Its impact is direct and spreads to almost all sector. This relegius tourism's demand continuously exist every years which makes Saudi Arabian making massive investment on these sector. So when this event disrupt, Saudi Arabian will loose billion dollars, loose investor's trust and 2030 target vision disrupted. Simply said, Hajj is economy political and legitimation assets for Saudi Arabian.

The Middle East touruism sector is already crumbling. Nobody would want to visit an unsafe location. If Trump care about his allies economy, he wouldnt have attacked Iran when negotiations were ongoing. The US dont care about other countries, their slogan is Make America Great Again not making Saudi Arabia great.

Do you have some opinion regarding these? And hows your government response for to the Hajj 2026?

I read that dying in Makkah and Madinah is considered a blessing based on Islamic teachings. So people dont care about their security in the HolyLand. But if I was in governemnt, I would be sure of the saftey of my people before sponsoring this year's Hajj.

[BTC FutureKing]

I know for sure how the Hajj is to the Muslim world and it is of a global scale, thus I doubt it would be postponed or rescheduled because of the ongoing war between Iran- U.S/Israel.
All sides may be forced to pause their war efforts and let the Hajj happen successfully so as not to turn this regional war into a full scale global war, because the Hajj is more beneficial in terms of revenue and a right for the Muslims, than the current war ongoing where all parties are fighting for their rights and dominance.

Hajj is an important pillar of Islam and Hajj cannot be postponed due to the war but some important measures can be taken due to the war as was done in the past in the case of the war such as a limited number will be set and those who may pose a danger or difficulty will be stopped. If they give priority to Hajj over the war it will be a very good decision because Hajj will not be stopped under any circumstances.Hajj is absolutely obligatory on Muslims who can afford it and Muslims will definitely fulfill their obligation in all circumstances.It may be that in the event of an increasing war security will be tightened and every difficulty will be taken care of so that there is no disruption in performing Hajj.

[Rabata]

Hajj is a religiously important act of worship for Muslims. Unless there is a major disaster, Saudi Arabia will not ban the holy pilgrimage, but will give the utmost importance to it. However, the recent war with Iran has made the Middle East very unstable. But the bright side, Iran has only tried to retaliate in all its attacks. There have been no attacks on any civilian sites in Saudi Arabia. So, there is no negative news about those who were preparing to perform Hajj in 2026 being able to perform it.

The instability that arose around the world after the war with Iran has now stopped due to the ceasefire, but a permanent solution is needed. Until a permanent solution is found, instability will continue among people. If the Hajj pilgrimage is canceled, the country's tourism industry will be severely affected. In addition, there is a possibility of significant economic, social and political losses for the country.

[Compromise me]

Arab countries sending retaliatory missile strikes into Iran will upgrade the conflict into a broader regional war which they don't want.

The actions they have taken against Iran have been more covert in nature, such as shutting down money laundering lines that they have hitherto been tolerant of.

These kind of actions hurt Iran more than a simple strike of the US/Israel kind.

Iran position and demands are looked valid. I don't think Iran will do attack on Saudia Arabia especially at the time of Hajj. When millions muslim gather for their sacred performance. So Iran will not take this step of war although it has some conflicts with Saudia, it would be risky as well as it hurts the sentiments of Muslim community. As Iran itself also Muslim country, he will not take this foolish step.While on other side U.S also behaved wisely, because as his position also not good among the different countries or Trump would not want to worsen his image more by taking such step. And US have strong relations with Saudia,  so for the support in the future policies he will also act carefully.generally by looking all this it feels that both will avoid with further conflicts almost thses two months.

[Hyphen(-)]

Do you have some opinion regarding these? And hows your government response for to the Hajj 2026?

The only factor I see my country is trying to consider is the economic situation of the country, yet people that have their money are paying for their hajj and government will only limit the numbers and not to stop them. The only thing the government may do is to withdraw all their sponsorship on the pilgrims in other to face other economic challenges of the country.

However, citizens that are denied access to travel are already complaining, they don’t care about the crises going on in the Middle East because they feel like it is their calling now and they need to use the opportunity now.

Since the Saudi Arabian government and the Hajj organizers feel safe to organize the Hajj, then I think they are good to go, it is left of the pilgrims to take responsibility in case anything happen which I don’t see coming. We wish them a happy hajj activities.

[barbara44]

Iran is fighting in self-defense, and yes, it can affect Hajj 2026, but how can you say they will carry out an attack in a way that can affect Hajj 2026? I think they are retaliating, and to some extent they have been successful in weakening the US forces in the Middle East. But this whole war was the product of the US and Israel. They are the ones to blame, and no doubt Israel is the biggest beneficiary of this war. They are carrying out other operations too.

As an Islamic nation, they will not attack hajj, we all know this. It's something that muslim's care about a lot, it's like Vatican basically, and for that reason, no nation would dare to attack. Even in world war 2, or any other war, Vatican was untouched and not attacked, that's a different situation, would make you morally corrupt and make you lose all the support you have around the world against Israel.

Good thing coming out of this war is that we have a Israel state that creates a problem, and now the whole world dislikes them, so they either stop, or they are enemy of the world soon enough, because almost every population started to hate them, and politicians wants votes, and whoever is anti-Israel, may get the votes soon.

[Faisal2202]

Good thing coming out of this war is that we have a Israel state that creates a problem, and now the whole world dislikes them, so they either stop, or they are enemy of the world soon enough, because almost every population started to hate them, and politicians wants votes, and whoever is anti-Israel, may get the votes soon.

That's true, but having discussions on it might mean something to someone, as OP was at least curious to know. Saudi has its own defense, and they are in a defense pact with Pakistan too. Nothing is hidden. I am sure there will be proper security measures, as I last saw an image of some defense system placed near Mecca.

Israel has lost its reputation and sovereignty, but I don't know how or why people in power are not doing anything about it and why the US is helping them. Although the roots of Israel go deeper into political influence in the US, I have seen many conspiracy theories on TikTok haha, but only if they are really true. I have not confirmed them, I just saw them, and some of them make a lot of sense.

[abhiseshakana]

Anyway, there have been many speculations that I can't openly share here, but it is everywhere on the internet. I hoped that war will end but no development was made meeting, but the development that has been made is US was able to move warships near to Iran like way near than before, and Iran has accepted that they don't know where the mines are hehe. So they were ready to take US help to remove them.

But don't know if they were only remours or what as politics is all based on lies. I hope war won't effect any pilgrims, but if it did, then the situation will be the same as it was in Covid-19.

Any claim or statement during war can be also unvalid,only strategy or propaganda and any war vessel movement are normal during escalation. We know that during second negotiation between Iran-US, US vessel also do blockade and after that US claimed has cleared sea mines and claimed military victory against Iran, followed with statement that whatever the outcome of the negotiations is not very important. So funny speaking, Trump using clasical political strategy as face saving exit or maybe the purpose of the US attack only to encouraging Israel as dog master. I catch draw / mutual deescalation signal, not because US is weak but bringing down Iran would be very time consuming and expensive.

If Hajj disrupted by escalations the impacts may be similar restrictions, but the causes are totally different also the mitigation.

In any case, we must not forget that Iran is also an Islamic country and "Mecca" has a sacred status for all Muslims, and I believe that they must reduce tension during the Hajj period to preserve the safety of pilgrims to the Holy House of God, otherwise they will lose their credibility with all Islamic peoples.

I think all depend on Israel, the party with the most motive on these war. The most possible scenario during Hajj are Israel attack Iran, and Iran and its proxies response or Iran escalates and Israel do retaliation.

Iran has denied many attacks on civilian infrastructure of Arab countries including attack on Saudia Aramco oil facility. Don't forget that biggest beneficiary of this war is Israel and they don't want this war to end. Their are unconfirmed news that such attacks are carried out by Israel to ignite the fight going on between Iran and Arab countries. People are already preparing for Hajj and there is no news that Hajj 2026 will be on the model of COVID-19. Iran is fighting in self defence and in way will carry out an attack that will effect Hajj 2026.   

No clear cut on Aramco's attack issue, benefited not always perpetrator. On these war it is not only Israel that benefits the most, but The red bear country also that actually also help Iran in their success hit on US and Israel facility. There are two thing I can see the motive of Israel aggressiveness on this war. First, Israel want weakened Iran so not to be a major threat and the proxy network is weakening, long war actually expensive and risky for Israel. The second, i found many end of time narative based on Islamic eschatology, that Israel read many signal of the emerge of leader who will lead the Islamic army to liberate Palestine and destroy Israel, and will emerge from Iran.

Iran not only fighting for self defence but also offensive such as building influence through Hezbollah, supporting Hamas and engaging on regional conflict.

This is where the scare is, Iran has actually been labeled not such a Muslim country and more of Muslim prosecutors in the past and its the reason why the gulf countries are actually not allies with Iran. Now amidst this war I think it’s a make or break between the Iran and the other gulf countries relationship, should this actually go well Iran will be looking to welcome Gulf countries as allies but should it go west, i think that will definitely break the bond totally and we all know that Israeli will be glad that Iran relationship with other Muslim countries is sour and as such they can do anything to destabilize that relationship.

I was definitely expecting Saudi to continue with the pilgrimage rights and activities because aside how significant it is to the Muslims it’s a huge economic factor to the emirate and they would not want this not to happen. I could remember when the war started early it was reported that they lost around $4B due to lack o tourists

Actually will be very hard almost impossible uniting Shia (Iran) and Sunni (majority of Gulf country) sects, if the leader is rigid but matter of fact beside that, there are regional power rivalry, geopolitical interest and also the competition for leadership of the Muslim world. Geopolitical tension between Iran and gulf country are up and down which i see as competition that can be change to coexistance. Israel can be benifited if muslim world devided but Israel can not fully control relationship between iran and Gulf country.

This war is not defined or will not be stopped by passing religious holidays. Nor is Iran going to specifically target anything against other Muslims engaged in pilgramage, so if that happens it would probably be a false flag operation by Israel. At the moment it is just interested in targeting any US or Israeli companies in neighboring countries. You kinda have to understand why they are doing this, because these are the only targets within range which they can hit that effectively support this US led war. Lots of civilian structures within Iran have been hit, just over a week ago their tallest bridge was knocked out, when they were meant to be in the midst of a negotiation - it is definitely the wrong way to apply pressure to them, especially when they can relatively easily block the strait at any time.

Even I saw signal for mutual deescalation, i see Iran vs Israel-US war will be long time, because this is a structural conflict. We see none achieve their objective which mean no reason to stop. Iran actually doesn't plan to get total victory considering its military limitations compared to the US, so their strategy to make war as highest cost as possible for US. We clearly see that escalation between conflicted party are controlled, none attack totally and all out such as affraid to make big war, Isn't this a sign that the war will be long?
Beside controlled Hormuz, Iran also combined its strategy with drone and missil attack, pressure through mercant vessel and infrastructure and all under cotrolled escalation targetting military and economic facilities plus assets related to Israel and the US only to show detterence, retaliation and controlled conflict escalation. Permanent close of Hormuz can make world united against Iran and US has legitimation to attack Iran totally which mean no more leverage. Why should use one time nuclear option if threat, minor disturbance and route restriction actually give over time leverage, some analyst said uncertainty can paralysed system. So retaliation strike and minor disturbance is more flexible, controllable and can create continuously pressure without harming Iran itself.

[Faisal2202]

Any claim or statement during war can be also unvalid,only strategy or propaganda and any war vessel movement are normal during escalation. We know that during second negotiation between Iran-US, US vessel also do blockade and after that US claimed has cleared sea mines and claimed military victory against Iran, followed with statement that whatever the outcome of the negotiations is not very important. So funny speaking, Trump using clasical political strategy as face saving exit or maybe the purpose of the US attack only to encouraging Israel as dog master. I catch draw / mutual deescalation signal, not because US is weak but bringing down Iran would be very time consuming and expensive.

If Hajj disrupted by escalations the impacts may be similar restrictions, but the causes are totally different also the mitigation.

Haha, Trump is definitely saving himself from any kind of criticism, like he gives any fuck. You are right, the US is not weak, and thinking that they are weak and can't win this war is wrong. They can, but the consequences would not be good for them either. Anyway, the discussion was about Hajj and the security of pilgrims, and every member who knows about it has shared their opinion, and all of them have shown the same view, that they would be stupid to attack the most respected places for Muslims.

Now some did talk about what if Iranians attack, then I think they would never do such an act because they are Muslims too, they love these places, and they would never attack.

[abhiseshakana]

The US and Israel don't care about backlash from any religious organisation. Under Donald Trump, the sacred place of worship, Al-Aqsa Mosque, has been desecration be far-right Jewish groups. A few days ago, Isreal governemnt stopped  Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre during Palm Sunday. Recently, Donald Trump insulted Pope Leo. Yesterday the President of the US posted a picture of himself like Jesus Christ. All these actions received wide condemnation, but Trump and Benjamin don't care. So if you think they are scared of backlash, please reconsider your stance.

The Middle East touruism sector is already crumbling. Nobody would want to visit an unsafe location. If Trump care about his allies economy, he wouldnt have attacked Iran when negotiations were ongoing. The US dont care about other countries, their slogan is Make America Great Again not making Saudi Arabia great.

I read that dying in Makkah and Madinah is considered a blessing based on Islamic teachings. So people dont care about their security in the HolyLand. But if I was in governemnt, I would be sure of the saftey of my people before sponsoring this year's Hajj.

We can not generalize they don't care about religious backlash from some of their action but both Trump and Netanyahu more tolerant of critism, apart from considering the global reaction from Arab allies and regional stability, the fact is that currently Muslims are not yet united, the US & Israel are still considering the possibility of uniting Islamic countries if they attack the holy land of Mecca and Medina. So they're only willing to take measured backlash.

In fact, the US has a major strategic interest in maintaining stability in the Middle East for its geopolitical security, even with Trump's "America First" slogan, which shows he prioritizes domestic matters but doesn't completely ignore his allies. In international relations, we know coercive diplomacy, simple explanations, negotiating, but at the same time using small-scale military interventions and attacks as part of the strategy, so what US did in war is normal.

Mecca and Medina as the centers of the Hajj pilgrimage do indeed have a high nobility and spiritual value. For those who die while performing the Hajj pilgrimage are indeed recorded as martyrs, so not everyone who dies there is a martyr, but even though the spirit of martyrdom is great, it does not mean that the Hajj pilgrims do not care about security or do not have fear of attacks, especially since the majority come from non-conflict countries. In addition, every year there is strict crowd management, large security and high safety protocols, remembering many Hajj tragedy with claimed thousand of live due to crowd. (the Mina tunnel tragedy). So do not say religious people usually ignore safety.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coercion_(international_relations)

As an Islamic nation, they will not attack hajj, we all know this. It's something that muslim's care about a lot, it's like Vatican basically, and for that reason, no nation would dare to attack. Even in world war 2, or any other war, Vatican was untouched and not attacked, that's a different situation, would make you morally corrupt and make you lose all the support you have around the world against Israel.

Good thing coming out of this war is that we have a Israel state that creates a problem, and now the whole world dislikes them, so they either stop, or they are enemy of the world soon enough, because almost every population started to hate them, and politicians wants votes, and whoever is anti-Israel, may get the votes soon.

Matter of fact international relation far more complex not as linear as your explanation, not all country hate Israel, i see fragmentation on global opinion and many western country still support Israel strategically, even in my country with moslem majority there are different opinion. So not about world against Israel buta polarization of global opinion. Anti Israel not alaways automatically get significant voice, in almost all case, national interest is beyond short term public opinion, beside that a country will not change because global opinion presuure, more effective use economic pressure and military pressure. So global sentiment not always followed by policy change.

[knowngunman]

As for my country, I haven't heard of the government taking any additional measures or actions regarding the Hajj season. I don't know, I'm not very informed, but I haven't heard anything, and perhaps they are waiting to see the outcome of the negotiations between the United States and Iran and how things will proceed afterward.

In any case, we must not forget that Iran is also an Islamic country and "Mecca" has a sacred status for all Muslims, and I believe that they must reduce tension during the Hajj period to preserve the safety of pilgrims to the Holy House of God, otherwise they will lose their credibility with all Islamic peoples.

For quite some time now, the tension has reduced significantly as there is no recent report of Iran attacking the gulf regions. Even before now, Iran stated clearly that they only attack the gulf in retaliation. As long as the US-ISRAEL cease their fire, Iran will also stop attacking the gulf. Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz is now the centre of attention. Since the shift of focus to this important and strategic route, the missiles attack has reduced at least for the moment while negotiation continues. We hope to see the end of the war soon but if that's not happening now and things continue this way (focus on Strait of Hormuz) then it'll have less impact on the upcoming hajj.