Is the Strait of Hormuz Now More Powerful Than a Traditional Nuclear Weapons?

[Fortify]

Logically speaking, it seems like control of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming a form of power that rivals even nuclear deterrence.

Here is my objective reason:

Because in just a short time, tensions around that route have already shown how much impact it can have on the global economy. When oil flow is threatened, everything reacts, fuel prices, transportation, food cost  and even inflation across many countries.

The key points to look at is that, Iran may not need to rely only on nuclear capability to have influence. Just by controlling such a critical global chokepoint, Iran already has strong leverage that the world cannot easily ignore or counter.

So that now gives us the big question, which is:

Can Iran reduce or even give up its nuclear ambitions and instead rely on control of the Strait as its main form of deterrence?

The reality on the ground is that unlike traditional nuclear weapons, this kind of power is already active and visible. It doesn’t need testing or threats, the impact is immediate. And the most interesting part is that no country can easily bypass or ignore that route without consequences.

So, this could be a shift in global politics from military deterrence to economic choke point control. What we are seeing might be a new form of power in the modern world.

Well, just like the last disaster that caused a global recession (they are never the same), nobody really tested this theory because it was known to be an exercise in absolute stupidity. Alas, Donald Trump managed to scrape a new low by causing this problem out of nowhere, thinking he could suck up to his increasingly deranged base and score some Israeli points by attacking a country that is not going to roll over quickly like Iraq or Afghanistan - which turned into massively protracted wars that were never really won either. It seems the longer this war drags on, the worse it gets for every country except for Iran which has learned to survive under sanctions for decades now. The rest of the world is now taking the hit that never existed a couple months ago, it's the definition of insanity that all points back to the US president and the issue he created.

[Coyster]

In geopolitics, countries use geography to their advantage, and that is what you see Iran doing in this war with the United States and Israel. And it is very simple to do, because of the proximity of the Strait to Iran, they can threaten to attack any vessel that attempts to cross and also warn that they have set up mines underwater to attack any vessel that tries to cross. It does not matter if that is true or not, no vessel will take the risk, and just like that there is a global shortage of oil supply.

That said, nuclear weapons are lethal elements and they are only used in extraordinary cases, of course it can cause untold destruction and suffering, but it is hard to get to that.

[abhiseshakana]

according the latest news the International Monetary Fund and the International Energy Agency have officially declared the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. You are 100% correct. Nuclear weapons are a "passive" deterrent you have them so you don't have to use them. The Strait of Hormuz is an "active" economic weapon.

Is the Strait of Hormuz Now More Powerful Than a Traditional Nuclear Weapons? Not as powerful like the real weapon but it is effective for economic weapon tbh blocking strait hormuz is hurting everyone not just US and Iran but everyone because the surge of oil price can lead into domino effect

I agree but has little different opinion, I see military power especially nuclear weapon give leverage and survival guarantee which give a country opportunity to use geographic, economic, technology, supply chain, energy & chokepoint and other soft power more aggressively, or simply said with nuclear weapon a country more confidence and less fear in existensial defeat. Other form of leverage can not replace nuclear deterrence, its only increase country bargaining power. What we learn from WW II, chernobyl and Fukushima tragedy,  nuclear power is absolut weapon, once time used and the game over because of total destruction, different with Hormuz only cause economic disturbance. Hormuz usage as detterence  has limitation, because it is not absolut, many country will adapt and find alternative parrarel way, Iran also need this route, continuous high escalition will harm Iran itself and different with nuclear usage, Hormuz can not avoid direct invasion. Frangkly speaking, Iran undestand it clearly, they fighting for uranium enrichment, because what actually they need is survival guarante not only a bargaining leverage.

I see the reason Hormuz is more powerful now because world now more connected and integrated, created interdependence when everything not normal, every eyes can see supply chain interdependence fragile. This circumstance open our eyes that world not only dominated by military power but, world face many warfare such as economy, financial and technology, which mean no single dominant power and power spread in multipolar world. If must choose i think realistically and we already see the impact, financial system control is the most effective and applicable power to control the world. To be superpower at least a country must have several power domination.

[Bluedrem]

It seems to me that Hormuz is more important than a conventional nuclear bomb. Yes, a person or a state cannot use a nuclear bomb if they want to because it causes huge casualties as well as infrastructure damage, but Hormuz is such an important region through which twenty percent of the world's imports and exports pass, meaning that the closure of this route means a disruption in world trade. In that case, the country with which Hormuz is controlled will be separately powerful.

[Coyster]

In that case, the country with which Hormuz is controlled will be separately powerful.

While it is true that the Strait gives Iran a very good leverage, we must also understand that blocking the Strait of Hormuz is not something they can afford to do in every situation. Basically because blocking the Strait affects the rest of the world and that could get some countries to turn on you.

I bet if most countries were not against Donald Trumps attack on Iran, then they would have moved military suport to the Strait. But since every country, except Israel opposes this war, they would rather not get involved. So what i mean is that Iran cannot just arbitrarily block the Strait in most cases.

[aylabadia05]

So that now gives us the big question, which is:

Can Iran reduce or even give up its nuclear ambitions and instead rely on control of the Strait as its main form of deterrence?

Because from what we have seen recently, this strategy alone can:

1. Disrupt global trade

2. Pressure powerful nations
 
3. Influence economic stability worldwide

Disruptions to global trade and impacts on global economic stability have already occurred and been experienced, right?
America's mapping of the escalation against Iran turned out to be analytically flawed. As a result, America is now facing its own challenges.

The Strait of Hormuz is a major shipping lane for shipping. Trump has been influenced by Netanyahu, which may have led to Trump's analysis not being as thorough as Netanyahu believed. In conclusion, this is all due to Netanyahu's interest in securing territories close to Israel so that those territories cannot reach Israeli territory.

A war with Iran is a technological war, and under the current circumstances, Iran has emerged as a new power after Russia and China.

[Die_empty]

In that case, the country with which Hormuz is controlled will be separately powerful.

While it is true that the Strait gives Iran a very good leverage, we must also understand that blocking the Strait of Hormuz is not something they can afford to do in every situation. Basically because blocking the Strait affects the rest of the world and that could get some countries to turn on you.

I bet if most countries were not against Donald Trumps attack on Iran, then they would have moved military suport to the Strait. But since every country, except Israel opposes this war, they would rather not get involved. So what i mean is that Iran cannot just arbitrarily block the Strait in most cases.

The Strait of Hormuz could be passed by oil vessels if they make deals with Iran. Many nations have already signed agreements with Iran and their vessels are passing through maybe after paying some fees. Trump started this war and most nations want him to fight it alone. So instead of attacking Iran for blocking these important channels, nations are choosing non-kinetic methods.

Knowing that he has failed in the war and plundered the global economy. Trump has turned to blocking the ports of Iran to force the Gulf nation to open the passage. Iran has shown that they are not just strategically militarily, but they are masters of the global economy. So I can say that the Strait of Hormuz is technically an economic weapon of mass destruction.

[Oasisman]

That said, nuclear weapons are lethal elements and they are only used in extraordinary cases, of course it can cause untold destruction and suffering, but it is hard to get to that.

Nuclear weapon is hard to use, and should not be used, because the moment when one country decides to lanuch a nuclear weapon, every other country will most likely follow, and it would probably going to be the global reset.
While the control over the straight of hormuz doesn't necessary need to be as explosive and destructive as the nuclear weapon., and yeah, Iran doesn't necessarily need nuclear weapons, this current conflict just exposed the truth about how valuable this passage is to the global economy.
Their control over hormuz keeps them at a spot where they don't really need to win this war, because they won't gonna lose either.
So, I can say, the straight of hormuz is more powerful than nuclear weapons in this case.

[Uhwuchukwu53]

Responding to the topic, I'd say yes. Even the former president of Russia said just the same about the Strait of Hormuz being their own nuclear weapon and I strongly agree with him.

Give up their nuclear ambitions?! Hell No! They're already learning from Libya and how Gaddafi was killed. That is the fastest way to the greater isreal middle east agenda. And also, the former supreme leader who was killed was the only one halting their nuclear ambitions, with his death, his son and the set of new leaders are swinging that way.

Let me remind you that the Strait of Hormuz wasn't closed prior to the war. We all need to call it what it is and not deflect, Donald Trump is waging an unnecessary war on iran. In between, the strait is still open for those ready to pay to go through. This is their strategy to make funds to repair all the damages of Israel and the Us likewise fighting the Petrodollar.

Well behind everything there is a reason, it's well said by my people that in the place of war what ever one laid hold is tag to be a weapon, Iran for me making this their best weapons to fight this war is not enough as they could be more diplomatic, and more strategic in pursuing this curse assuming this hit hard as it's today on global economy where others countries are Force to join in opening the straits of Hormuz and with a condition despite then having the close proximity of the place condition that they can't control it even for the future they will automatically lose the curse, Iran have not gotten all it takes to make that decision stand assuming Iran is like China or Russia their decision would have stand because they would not have shake much in military and  defence because as of today most ammunition and Air defense are gotten from China and Russia, country can by weapon else where but the extents to which your economy can afford those things without buying much gives edge to stand against this kind of external aggression, those stand to be corrected as mere opinion.

[Curious T]

You oversimplify it. Countries can decide not to go to war because of the threat of a nuclear war, but even though Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, countries can still go to war with it and say "consequences be damned". It is a strategic route which gives them a lot of leverage, but I believe if you ask them to choose one, they would choose to have nuclear weapons in their Arsenal. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz doesn't shield them from an attack. One reason why they were successful this time around was that the US didn't plan properly, and I feel their intelligence was mediocre. They didn't have full knowledge of how things would go, or they were too arrogant to look at the pieces on the board.

[sunsilk]

Iran's control in the Strait only tells that they have that power and influence in the global trade. And that's why I still believe whoever controls these things in the global trade has a power to influence in the global politics and dominance.

1. Oil
2. Bank
3. Internet

Now the interesting part is what Trump said that they'll be forcing to blockade and its allies like the UK said that they won't obey of what they're about to do.

Let's see.

And if the nearby countries there will develop their pipelines to go to the other side that doesn't require to pass the Strait of Hormuz, that might be the next target of Iran.

I will say that power in global trade is not only about who hold the sea or road path, or the things you made mention but those who adapts quickly when things changes. You see countries that have a stronger partnership, alternative and a flexible economy are the that suffer's less when tension rises so you see is not about who's in control but about how prepared they're when the control they have is no longer working again

I agree, they are dynamic and open to changes depending on the situation and whichever trade partner is going to be beneficial for their economy.

While there are countries who would look at their friends forever. But in modern geopolitics, it's the same old politics that is happening in the local politics.

Which means that there's no permanent friends or enemies. For as long as both of you benefit from each other as an ally or trade partner, you're in.

[SquallLeonhart]

Now that USA is blocking what is blocked basically, we are going to see how this will go on. I am not sure if this will make any difference at all, Iran has been sanctioned and blocked from majority of the world already for many years, same as Cuba, basically USA has made sure that anyone who is against them and their way of living, should be blocked, in order to make sure they would fail and they get to say "see that failed" when in reality if USA didn't bullied, those nations would have done fine.

Iran is used to this, been fifty years now, so they will not care about any blockade or not.

[mindrust]

It is not Hormuz... It is money. Money beats everything else. Money = God, at least in our age. Ever since Lydians who lived in Anatolia invented money, money replaced every other god, basically killed them. Money is powa. Money is faith. Money is life. Nuclear brings destruction and harming money basically means harming yourself. That's why Iran has the upper hand. Iran has the black money. The black god. In some places, money is yellow and shiny but in Iran, It is black. Pitch black. Back in black. Allah ackbar.

[abhiseshakana]

It is not Hormuz... It is money. Money beats everything else. Money = God, at least in our age. Ever since Lydians who lived in Anatolia invented money, money replaced every other god, basically killed them. Money is powa. Money is faith. Money is life. Nuclear brings destruction and harming money basically means harming yourself. That's why Iran has the upper hand. Iran has the black money. The black god. In some places, money is yellow and shiny but in Iran, It is black. Pitch black. Back in black. Allah ackbar.

Iran black money meaning limited leverage, with utilize oil sale, barter, laternatif network which all are non legal payment settlement under US sanction but it also give medicine and reselience to sanction, but in our blind calculation, we know Iran also burn out lot of money for expensive cost of transaction and many extra cost, all their movement has limitation, all their leverage only tools to be survive not foundation to be world power.

Money and nuclear are two different logic and can not substitute each other, every country need money to powering the system an sustainability. With nuclear as deterrence, a country can preventing other country attack. We can also take example of Hormuz strait, matter of fact geography beat money in short term, even we have money, if route and supply chain disrupted, price will be spike, risk increase and market can be shock.

I agree money is power, but the power determined by who rules the global financial system. Do not forget money always work with other form of power such military , geography and political legitimation, without security guarantee and physical acess. money can not be circulated.

[HelliumZ]

Now that USA is blocking what is blocked basically, we are going to see how this will go on. I am not sure if this will make any difference at all, Iran has been sanctioned and blocked from majority of the world already for many years, same as Cuba, basically USA has made sure that anyone who is against them and their way of living, should be blocked, in order to make sure they would fail and they get to say "see that failed" when in reality if USA didn't bullied, those nations would have done fine.

Iran is used to this, been fifty years now, so they will not care about any blockade or not.

The United States can do any kind of vile thing in the interests of the United States and Israel. The United States has kidnapped the President of Venezuela for its own interests and returned Venezuela with its own ruler. Just like Venezuela, the United States is trying to return Iran with its own ruler. But the United States thought that it could easily change the regime of Iran, but Donald Trump may not have thought about Iran's military power. However, the biggest question is how the United States can block the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has occupied for more than 50 years. In this war, America has fallen into the trap of Israel at every step and has taken the wrong decision. Due to which American President Donald Trump is being insulted by his own American citizens.

[peter0425]

It's indeed a form of power. Whoever controls the strait has a great leverage. The recent conflict has made obvious its significance in the global economy. It's also noticeable how closing the strait was used as a big threat by Iran.

It really shows how powerful countries in the Middle east are. If they halt any exportation of oil, that cuts off almost every country’s supply and we all are found struggling. If this isn’t a lesson to how influence oil has and particularly the middle east over the world then I don’t know what else will be.

However, I don't think it's more powerful than nuclear weapons. If only Iran had fully-developed nuclear weapons, that country would've been left alone by the US. The most that the bully would've done was to impose sanctions, not bomb its cities, schools, research centers, and many other civilian locations.

We don’t know if they’ve actually built one. If they did, will they use it just against the US? There’s a lot of considerations that they might not want to use nuclear weapons after all.

[X-ray]

It is a leverage and form of deterrence otherwise we won't be grasping for oil right now around the world but it also signifies the importance of using alternate fuel such as bio diesel.

Sooner or later countries will either push for EV by giving tax cuts or simply diversify fuel sources from bio diesel from palm oil producing countries considering the high oil yield per hectare.

[davis196]

The reality on the ground is that unlike traditional nuclear weapons, this kind of power is already active and visible. It doesn’t need testing or threats, the impact is immediate. And the most interesting part is that no country can easily bypass or ignore that route without consequences.

So, this could be a shift in global politics from military deterrence to economic choke point control. What we are seeing might be a new form of power in the modern world.

Comparing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with nuclear weapons seems a bit stupid. Don't you think?
Nuclear weapons can kill a lot of people, while blocking the Strait of Hormuz only makes the people around the world suffer from inflation and a stagnant economy. Iran can't keep blocking the Strait of Hormuz forever, because this would damage the economies of Iranian allies like China and Pakistan. I'm sure that, at some point, the blockade over the Strait would be lifted, the global economy cannot survive a blockade, that lasts for several months or even a year.
Iran possessing nuclear weapons would be the ultimate insurance that Israel won't attack Iran ever again. Right now, Iran has blocked the Strait, but Israel and the USA can attack Iran at any given moment.

[Darker45]

~snip~

It really shows how powerful countries in the Middle east are. If they halt any exportation of oil, that cuts off almost every country’s supply and we all are found struggling. If this isn’t a lesson to how influence oil has and particularly the middle east over the world then I don’t know what else will be.

Yeah, no question about it. That region is producing a third of the world's oil supply. But it's also not something they could just halt anytime. It's their lifeblood. It's indeed influence, but they can't just use it as a threat because withholding sales would also be suicide on their part.

~snip~

We don’t know if they’ve actually built one. If they did, will they use it just against the US? There’s a lot of considerations that they might not want to use nuclear weapons after all.

Information has it that they don't have it yet. It must be true. Otherwise, the US must have stopped short of overconfidently dropping bombs to its cities. And as claimed, their uranium-enriching program is for energy purposes.

[JeffBrad12]

In that case, the country with which Hormuz is controlled will be separately powerful.

While it is true that the Strait gives Iran a very good leverage, we must also understand that blocking the Strait of Hormuz is not something they can afford to do in every situation. Basically because blocking the Strait affects the rest of the world and that could get some countries to turn on you.

I bet if most countries were not against Donald Trumps attack on Iran, then they would have moved military suport to the Strait. But since every country, except Israel opposes this war, they would rather not get involved. So what i mean is that Iran cannot just arbitrarily block the Strait in most cases.

Blocking strait of hormuz only effective if the external power aren't blocking it as well on the outer layer. Right now US is seizing several tankers and planning to sell the oils seized to the world.
When things like this happen, blocking the strait means they are crippling their own economy so its not exactly a deterrence because its also wounding themselves in the process.
On the other hand, what if the gulf states are investing into an oil pipe that could bring the oil right into south coast of Oman bypassing the strait?