Analysis based on stats might be useless

[joeperry]

Not all leagues are rigged, especially the big one. I think most rigged happens in lower leagues and I don't think any rigged games is happening on higher one. Personally I use data and stats and for me it works, of course it's not 100% since it's only a data to see the probability, regarding the line moves, I'm not sure if it's more reliable than the stats I think you can check it out if you already suspect that the game will be rigged. So far the rigged I only know mostly happening in the sports betting is that stats, where player/team intentionally limits their stats to win their bet.

[348Judah]

When making analysis, we have to consider a lot of factors starting from the statistics in their previous performance and also checking on their current form, then try to bring along with other research we have made concerning the opposing team in order to know if their chances of winning is more higher than losing or not, that is why we can't use a single indicator to conclude our analysis except we combine all together.

[Hewlet]

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

I don't subscribe to this. As much as we can't completely factor out the possibility of some games being fixed which in sports betting is actually rare, the better way of carrying out analysis in your game is  by using stats and following up games to be certain on who's in their right form and who's not.

If stats can't help you win a game, then studying what others are doing won't because others are merely depending on stats and can equally be wrong in their analysis. It's better to do tour analysis yourself and be ready to face whatever Comes from it.

[YOSHIE]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

I often see my friends, especially those who gamble on sports, if they lose and it doesn't live up to their expectations, one word comes out of their mouth, "the bet was unfairly rigged" and so on.

Personally, when I didn't care and ignored certain analyzes or statistics, I was also suspicious of these bets, but after I understood and tried to correct the mistakes on the side do not rely on analysis or statistics completely and I study several other things closely related to the sport, before placing a bet.

For me, analysis is okay, but not 100%, but we need to consider factors such as external factors, team/player data analysis, betting terminology and so on to still have a good chance.

[Su-asa]

First of all, making use of stats isn't useless, it actually increases your chances of winning the game but it does not mean that it is a hundred percent. some people make use of stats and they get too confident forgetting that they cannot change the fact that winning isn’t just based on stats, luck is also involved as well. Talking about some games getting rigged that's actually true but this doesn't happen with every league, this is why I don't bet on most leagues that are not really pronounced. Analysis based on research isn't useless and at the same time it doesn't guarantee profit as well.

[dwyane36]

Just do what works for you. That “rigged” thing has never really been proven in major sports. Maybe we think it’s rigged because the outcome didn’t go the way we expected.

Given that in some sports, the outcome of a match can be determined seconds before the end literally, and sometimes by a completely random and unexpected move that no player, no matter how skilled, could possibly anticipate. So, yes, personally, I don't really believe that results are rigged in major competitions either.

[Hispo]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

There are people who think in the same manner you do, and have grown cynical enough to assume there are entire professional leagues which are rigged in order for a very limited number of people to take a lot of money I to their pockets. Though, assuming you are right and there is indeed some foul play on that league, it would be better for you not to try to oursmart those criminals fixing matches, you could still lose a significant amount of money if you tried to, because you would start to seek for abnormal behavior on markets, instead of going behind logic and reason.

I have even seen some people using bots to track odds changes, but I would not say those are actually consistent with profits...

[Porfirii]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

There are people who think in the same manner you do, and have grown cynical enough to assume there are entire professional leagues which are rigged in order for a very limited number of people to take a lot of money I to their pockets. Though, assuming you are right and there is indeed some foul play on that league, it would be better for you not to try to oursmart those criminals fixing matches, you could still lose a significant amount of money if you tried to, because you would start to seek for abnormal behavior on markets, instead of going behind logic and reason.

I have even seen some people using bots to track odds changes, but I would not say those are actually consistent with profits...

And, although I can understand the cynics you mention, Hispo, I also think that such strategies are also risky. In fact, although things can be different not only between leagues, but also between single matches, I believe that in most cases there is no need to rig anything, since the industry is sufficiently well assembled to give very good profits without the need to resort to fraud.

[Bluedrem]

Yes, you are right, there is a lot of fixing in league matches. Fixing spoils the beauty of the game. The prevalence of gambling around the world has become so widespread that people spend billions of dollars to change the outcome of the match, that is, which team will lose, which team will win, and what role a player will play in the game. Then the game is just a formality.
So many times, even the team that is statistically far ahead can be seen losing very easily. In fact, from the moment of the match when there is no possibility of losing, the team is seen losing due to fixing. I think that although the gamblers benefit from this, the beauty of the game is being spoiled.

[Die_empty]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

I wouldn't doubt that some sports games are rigged, but it is limited to the top Leagues. Some sports leagues are multi-billion-dollar investments, and the organizers would not allow insiders or fraudulent individuals to destroy their reputation. Some top leagues have put in place certain control measures that check games and ensure that there is no malpractice. There is also collaboration between the betting industry, law enforcement agencies, and sports organizers to ensure that there is sanity in these sports games.

My position is that analysis is still very important in sports betting and should not be overlooked. You might have had some bad experiences with rigged games, but it doesn't erase the fact that analysis is the bedrock of sports betting. Maybe you should consider betting on major leagues in developed countries.

[Chinesebaby]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Judging by the outcome of Sport games recently, most especially football, it's obvious for people to think maybe it's outcome are pre-plan, but without enough proof, it's still just an allegation with verifications. Because there are many different factors that can alter betting analysis, such as the injury of a key player in the club, the change of an existing coach and likewise the goalkeeper. As all these factors contribute to what can determine the outcome of a game, including luck too, as tht also plays a key role too if a big team is playing lackadaisically on the pitch.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

So how do you intend to get such data for your game predictions, because I'm sure knowing which team the majority of gambler are placing their bets, or the side that has the most amount of bet is usually not displayed on any Sport analysis website. So how do you intend to go about it?

[Samlucky O]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

I am surprised you are getting to know about it now, well for me it has been Long since I knew about it, but since it has no evidence people don't see reasons to believe. But a reasonable and smart person will understand that most sport game are rigged. I have predicted a game that I may possibly bet my asset to be sure that the game will play, but big team lose to a small club that was not meant to by any means. But since there is no evidence no one will agree to it but I know there is more to what people see, and what they get.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

I also agree to this, this is the reason why many prediction fail because we follow analysis, thinking it's the only way why there is something behind the result afterall. And this make believe that gambling is by luck because no matter how smart you are, you will still lose.

[Richbased]

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

True, making analysis and checking all statistics before a match kicks off does not assure winnings, this is while it's called gambling, it may or may not work according to your expectation. I can't contest the fact that some matches can be rigged which is called match fixing but the chances of this happening is very rare especially in the popular sporting events and in the big leagues. If statistics are to work all the time don't you know that there are lots of people that will be winning from sports betting because many people do check all these statistics before betting their games but sports betting are live matches that its outcome can change at anytime. Consider a scenario in a football match when a player from a strong team is sent off due to a red card or a prominent player gets injured while a match is still in action, don't you think that such development can affect the supposed result of the match?

[mak013]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

Sometimes it can be useful to watch how the line moves, but it can be a trap too.
I mark teams that have fixed games and try to avoid such games. Or i can risk with small sum to make a bet against stats, but casino can decide that you a cheater.
The best way as for me to make small bets for lots of events. It takes lots of time to analyze it, but as result fixed matches wouldn`t be a problem.

[Floxynice]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

I agree that there is a lot of match-fixing going on in the background which we, the viewers, do not get to see. However, this is not rampant in major leagues, where there is a lot of scrutiny from viewers and strict regulations that impose severe consequences on those involved in such acts. I just wish that you had mentioned the exact league you suspect is involved in match-fixing, but somehow I feel that it is likely one of those lower leagues where there is not much public scrutiny and defaulting clubs can get away with their actions.

Sports betting still remains unpredictable, whether you base your analysis on stats, lines, or whatever information is available to you. Stats are not completely unreliable; bettors still get lucky with analysis based on statistical updates.

[Achalugo BTC]

When making analysis, we have to consider a lot of factors starting from the statistics in their previous performance and also checking on their current form, then try to bring along with other research we have made concerning the opposing team in order to know if their chances of winning is more higher than losing or not, that is why we can't use a single indicator to conclude our analysis except we combine all together.

Well, you are actually speaking the truth, but that doesn't mean that one has to depend on stats to be able to win while gambling, though analysis stats very well is useful, if they go in details in checking the necessary things, which I know that its not everyone will have that ability to do so. Which the best thing is just for one to gamble and expect that anything can happen randomly, which can either be luck or not, which they are to also understand that gambling is just a game for fun.

[Mrbluntzy]

Sports bettors are not dumb, especially the bettors that love to watch live the games they bet on, by doing so, they will clearly see how the match went and detect if it was a rigged game or not, even if they don't have definitive proof about their observation, they will definitely change their method of analysis or perhaps they may never bet on such a game next time. In my opinion, there are two kinds of bettors, the one that watches the match, follows and observe every single details and the kind that doesn't do much but just want to predict and win. Those bettors that follows every details already knows how to change method when one is not working. In conclusion, analysis based on stats can not be useless in all cases.

[terrific]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

I think it's fine if you'll give us more details about that league. So that we can check if they're suspicious.
But if you don't want to drop the league and the sport, that's okay if you don't like offending the fans.
So, with these rigged matches, IMO it only happens to the lower tier leagues and not to the professional leagues.
Although it won't surprise if me if you tell me that it's from an actual top league from that sport.

[Odohu]

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

There are matches whose lines changes rapidly close to kickoff time and often I see those matches producing strange results. I don't know if this is due to rigging but it is such a coincidence that the lines will fluctuate that much and the underdog will win or just some funny result. What I did when I notice something like that is to avoid the match to avoid being on the wrong side. Using the fluctuations of the lines to make prediction is too risky for me, unless you are saying you have a clue or a strategy you use of which I'm interested to learn.

[Davidvictorson]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

This is a good observation, however it doesn't mean that it universal.

I would say that while there are rigged games, it is rare in popular well-watched leagues because they are closely monitored. Despite this, they are not 100% exempted though.

In generally as a good strategy, one's analysis shouldn't be just based on stats only but a combination of line moves, where bettors place their money, and all other strategies that gives one a chance of winning.