“Sports betting strategy”

[batang_bitcoin]

That will result to chasing losses if you're looking for a strategy that lets you win consistently in profit per month. I guess those who have tried it have that dilemma that they'll now have two problems, to chase their losses and to actually hit the numbers in their heads about the monthly quota that they need to fill. IMHO, don't think of that so you're free to gamble and bet for the sports you like. Because when you do that, you won't be needing to think of those numbers and I bet your numbers for that monthly fill is that much.

There's no strategy that can guarantee you consistent win in the long run because no one can beat luck when it comes to gambling. Luck is very important for you to win your bet. Imagine chasing your losses and hoping to win big. Isn't that too much for you to be able to control your emotions. Gamble in a way that you will be able to limit your losses and control your emotions.

That is the problem of many gamblers when they think they've made up a good strategy. But even they do, they're not going to last long because they're mostly going to beat themselves up when luck isn't with them and even there is, it's only temporary. So, that's the strategy that one has to do, and that's all about controlling the emotions and as well as putting up limits to how much you gamble.

When we gamble with the money we can afford to lose and have fun mentality, we will be able to accept whatever the result is and will not regret losing money.

And that's what clear mind of gamblers should have but not all can accept loses lightly.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

The closest strategy I have tried like a thousand times is placing bets on 1.01 odds , and honestly sometimes it works but the problem is that when you lose early this puts pressure on your mental wellbeing and this is the unnecessary pressure am avoiding these days...but if you win like 100 times in a row that's twice your money 🤑 and that's where you want to be.

Otherwise no foolproof strategy exists out there.. lets just manage our losses better.

Is it actually possible to win 100 times in a row without a single loss while betting on matches with 1.01 odds? Asking this because I do not think it's possible without the gambler or bettor being extremely lucky because games with 1.01 odds are not matches with guaranteed winning.

In my quest to find how to always win my bets and make money no matter how small, I've betted on odds like this, the plan was that if I could win on odds like this consistently without fail and loss, and accumulating the small small profit I am making, over time, it's going to be big money. So I was consistently betting in low odds like 1.01, 1.1 and less and so on, I won some, I still lost some, though it seems I won more games than I lost, but I still was not able to see or save any profit, in the end, I got frustrated and quit, then went back to my normal way of betting which chase after odds like 2.0, 1.8 and more.

[Orpichukwu]

I have always said that gambling is strictly base on luck despite the fact that checking the stats and analysing the game can always give you an upper hand but even that it's limited to some sports and games because if we talk about slot games then that's a totally different picture entirely because I literally don't believe anyone can give themselves an upper hand when it comes to that game.

The only thing you have to focus on in slot games is how to properly manage your bankroll and your emotions. The outcome of the game, you don't have control over since it's RNG; you have to depend on your luck, and the longer you can manage your budget, the more likely you might be to win something out of it.

[Smartvirus]

Is it actually possible to win 100 times in a row without a single loss while betting on matches with 1.01 odds? Asking this because I do not think it's possible without the gambler or bettor being extremely lucky because games with 1.01 odds are not matches with guaranteed winning.

These types of bets never works for two main reasons.

One, no matter how many games you get to accumulate, let’s say over 10 games in the accumulation with 1.01 odds, you still wouldn’t be making any tangible profit and you are way x10 in risk. You might feel the need to step it up and even then, your risk value is multiplied.

Make no mistake, certain events can happen in a game that would turn the entire game against you. Let’s say there is a red card moment, that game automatically becomes balanced or even against the team with 1.01 odds originally.

There are also moments such as the end of the league where you find teams within the relegation zone putting up a last stand. Those are odds defying moment and can ruin a 100% win.

[GiftedMAN]

I have always said that gambling is strictly base on luck despite the fact that checking the stats and analysing the game can always give you an upper hand but even that it's limited to some sports and games because if we talk about slot games then that's a totally different picture entirely because I literally don't believe anyone can give themselves an upper hand when it comes to that game.

The only thing you have to focus on in slot games is how to properly manage your bankroll and your emotions. The outcome of the game, you don't have control over since it's RNG; you have to depend on your luck, and the longer you can manage your budget, the more likely you might be to win something out of it.

Slot games happens to be the most difficult game for me because when I'm gambling on it the rate at which the amount I have reduces is something I can't control so most times I don't get lucky due to the budget I make since I hardly get winning on it but for some gamblers tht still have more reasons to gamble due to their luck it's important have a good budget because slot games favours a strong minded person you can't gamble and lose once and decide to quit it's impossible for you to make profit.

[abaeze]

Good afternoon, dear gamblers!

What do you think — is there any strategy that actually lets you win consistently on sports betting and finish every month in profit ? 

I’ve been trying to bet on favorites with odds around 1.4–1.7, but I still end up in the negative by the end of the month. Maybe betting on favorites is a bad strategy, so I’m thinking about switching things up. 

What would you guys recommend when it comes to sports betting strategies? (please) 

By regular, you certainly don't mean winning all your bets every week or month because there is no such thing as a sure thing in betting. Those who fix the odds fix them for their own profit. So even if you want to, you won't be able to win regularly. However, my betting strategy is that I never bet on my favorite team, but always bet against it because if my favorite team loses, I am satisfied with the odds and if it wins, I get the peace of mind that "my favorite team has won". Then the pain of losing money is not felt so much.

[LUCKMCFLY]

actually needs AI because the game is unpredictable and one can't really tell expect you are able to control your emotions just incase your expectations is cut short.

I think that's how it is, sometimes expectations are very high on our part, this is something that can be generated as an extraordinary event, it's not something that happens often, but it has happened, now currently in football games I have seen results that I never thought I could have seen, teams that I think are very good lose to teams that are almost at the bottom of the table, that is something impressive.

[danadc]

Slot games happens to be the most difficult game for me because when I'm gambling on it the rate at which the amount I have reduces is something I can't control so most times I don't get lucky due to the budget I make since I hardly get winning on it but for some gamblers tht still have more reasons to gamble due to their luck it's important have a good budget because slot games favours a strong minded person you can't gamble and lose once and decide to quit it's impossible for you to make profit.

I also have to do this because playing slots is quite easy for us to lose money, and whenever I can, before playing I allocate an amount to play only on slots, but lately I've put in a certain amount, around 20 USD. If I manage to make something with those 20 USD, like taking them to 30-50, I withdraw it and leave the initial 20. If I lose, well, I don't get angry or anything because I know that's what I could lose.

[Tungbulu]

I think that's how it is, sometimes expectations are very high on our part, this is something that can be generated as an extraordinary event, it's not something that happens often, but it has happened, now currently in football games I have seen results that I never thought I could have seen, teams that I think are very good lose to teams that are almost at the bottom of the table, that is something impressive.

The unpredictability and randomness of gambling, especially sports betting which is more of live events, should be something that should’ve sunk into the skull of gamblers. It shouldn’t be something that should come as a surprise to us when we see certain results and outcomes, because this is something that makes up gambling. I’ve seen far worse case scenarios, and nothing surprises me anymore.

[Satofan44]

Is it actually possible to win 100 times in a row without a single loss while betting on matches with 1.01 odds? Asking this because I do not think it's possible without the gambler or bettor being extremely lucky because games with 1.01 odds are not matches with guaranteed winning.

These types of bets never works for two main reasons.

One, no matter how many games you get to accumulate, let’s say over 10 games in the accumulation with 1.01 odds, you still wouldn’t be making any tangible profit and you are way x10 in risk. You might feel the need to step it up and even then, your risk value is multiplied.

That is not how risk works. You can't just say that adding any kind of bet has a risk value of 1 and then keep adding it based on the number of matches. Playing 10 individual bets with 1.01 odds does not have a risk factor of 10x compared to playing a single game of 1.01 odds. If you assume that a 1.01 bet reflects a 99% implied probability of winning, then to win such 10 bets in a row would be P = (0.99)^10 which is 90.4%. But each of these bets has an implied edge for the bookie, so it is definitely not 99% chance of winning (odds don't reflect probabilities but that is not the argument here -- and who replies with that shit to this shows that they don't even understand elementary school statistics). So what happens if you change the implied probability of winning to 98% or 97%?

P = (0.99)^10 = 90.4%.
P = (0.98)^10 = 81.7%.
P = (0.97)^10 = 73.7%.

As you can see, even a slight reduction in the probability of winning of 1-2% from 99% to a low of 97% chance of winning -- when applied to 10 games in a row -- leads to a  massive reduction of the probability of winning all the games in row by almost 20%! This is a well known thing but practically nobody here knows it, small inefficiencies compound over repetitions and then lead to creating disproportionately large long-term losses. This has nothing to do with 10x the games = 10x the risk though, that is not how it works.

Make no mistake, certain events can happen in a game that would turn the entire game against you. Let’s say there is a red card moment, that game automatically becomes balanced or even against the team with 1.01 odds originally.

There are also moments such as the end of the league where you find teams within the relegation zone putting up a last stand. Those are odds defying moment and can ruin a 100% win.

That is called variance in relation to expectations. Winning many small games may provide a delusion of the possibility of winning and that they are low risk, but since the payoff distribution is not symmetric then a rare disruption of the winning can create disproportionate losses. That would create a negatively skewed return profile. Here is an example: Stake $100, games of 1.01 odds, win 50 games in row.

• Chance to win: P = (0.99)^50 = 60.5%. This is probably not going to happen, but  let's say that you have won.
• Now you have $150 ($1 gain per game).
• You lose game number 51 with stake $100, you are now down to $50 and a net loss of $50 from your starting balance.
• Congratulations, you've played yourself.

For this to be a profitable approach, you would have to win each time > 100 games in a row with the same stake. At a 99% implied probability of winning, you have a chance of 36.2% to win 101 games in a row one time. If it is 98%, then you are down to 12.9%. Remember:

• This is a chance for you to win this once. Winning at least 101 games in a row, then losing and winning again this way repeatedly has an extremely lower chance
• Any kind of manipulations on the stake or such foolish ideas would reduce your probabilities and wipe you out completely with variance even faster.

Conclusion: It is mathematically impossible to win this way.

Now, almost nobody will merit this awesome post (with simplifies versions of the mechanisms) because 99% of the users in this section are shitposting account farmers.  

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I have always said that gambling is strictly base on luck despite the fact that checking the stats and analysing the game can always give you an upper hand but even that it's limited to some sports and games because if we talk about slot games then that's a totally different picture entirely because I literally don't believe anyone can give themselves an upper hand when it comes to that game.

The only thing you have to focus on in slot games is how to properly manage your bankroll and your emotions. The outcome of the game, you don't have control over since it's RNG; you have to depend on your luck, and the longer you can manage your budget, the more likely you might be to win something out of it.

Yea, RNGs games are very simple without stress because what we need is just wager and expect returns and like you have said, the outcome totally depends on luck but sports comprises of both luck and skill, what Jaycoinz also said is true, it's not all games that one is going to win no matter how good the person is in making prediction. Whether someone is playing sports games or casino games, knowing how to manage bankroll is important.

[Smartvirus]

P = (0.99)^10 = 90.4%.
P = (0.98)^10 = 81.7%.
P = (0.97)^10 = 73.7%.

As you can see, even a slight reduction in the probability of winning of 1-2% from 99% to a low of 97% chance of winning -- when applied to 10 games in a row -- leads to a  massive reduction of the probability of winning all the games in row by almost 20%! This is a well known thing but practically nobody here knows it, small inefficiencies compound over repetitions and then lead to creating disproportionately large long-term losses. This has nothing to do with 10x the games = 10x the risk though, that is not how it works.

Conclusion: It is mathematically impossible to win this way.

You did good on coming up with these simple calculations on how this can apply in statistics but, we both know better as your conclusions does remark on how certain occurrences on having to win several games up to 100 wins in a row might be impossible.

However,
If I follow through on your calculations correctly,
P = (0.99)^10 = 90.4%
With ^10 being the number of possible occurrences being for 10 games (hope that’s our assumption here).

In my earlier statement though, I didn’t have to use statistics and it was based off the assumption that every game in the multi-bet posses a risk factor of its own which I assumed to be 1.

Here is what that looks like in statistics using my assumptions of 10games being possible outcomes. Let’s fiddle with the games and see how that affects the probability. We’ve used 10x already so, let’s see how that applies with 9x, 8x and 7x. Still going by the 1.01 odds and 99% implied probability of winning.

P = (0.99)^9 = 91.4%
P = (0.99)^8 = 92.3%
P = (0.99)^7 = 93.2%

If you look at this, you would find that there is an increase of 0.9 which we could round up to 1 probable outcome each time we reduce the number of possible occurrences or games.

You would as well note this in the reduction of the implied probability which is more of a compounding on the odds by 10 possible occurrences.

That’s more of what I was suggesting when I said, more games do add to you risk factor to put it simply.

[SPIDERMAN008]

actually needs AI because the game is unpredictable and one can't really tell expect you are able to control your emotions just incase your expectations is cut short.

I think that's how it is, sometimes expectations are very high on our part, this is something that can be generated as an extraordinary event, it's not something that happens often, but it has happened, now currently in football games I have seen results that I never thought I could have seen, teams that I think are very good lose to teams that are almost at the bottom of the table, that is something impressive.

I am also noticing this. Nowadays, especially club matches are becoming completely unpredictable. Where it is not clear who will actually win. The main reason for this, which you mentioned, is that even strong teams are losing. Earlier, I used to see that after playing many matches, they would lose due to some unexpected reason. But now, normally, if a weak team changes its strategy and if it works well, then even after playing well, the strong team loses.

On the other hand, due to some weak teams defensive play, many times strong teams cannot score goals. When they start playing very aggressively, then suddenly if the weak team scores a goal, then they cannot goal again , nor can they even win. This has become quite common, and this is why many strong teams are also losing.

[Fredomago]

I think that's how it is, sometimes expectations are very high on our part, this is something that can be generated as an extraordinary event, it's not something that happens often, but it has happened, now currently in football games I have seen results that I never thought I could have seen, teams that I think are very good lose to teams that are almost at the bottom of the table, that is something impressive.

The unpredictability and randomness of gambling, especially sports betting which is more of live events, should be something that should’ve sunk into the skull of gamblers. It shouldn’t be something that should come as a surprise to us when we see certain results and outcomes, because this is something that makes up gambling. I’ve seen far worse case scenarios, and nothing surprises me anymore.

Indeed, as even how think you are sure with the outcome or how big is the advantages upset can still happen, so it won't  be a suprise if something messed up with you bet, better to move forward and accept it, there's no way that you can always win though by skills and better understanding about the game, the chance to find the right pick might be possible if the player or team you select will perform the way you expect them to be that gives a better chance but still not an assurance to win.

[Muba20]

actually needs AI because the game is unpredictable and one can't really tell expect you are able to control your emotions just incase your expectations is cut short.

I think that's how it is, sometimes expectations are very high on our part, this is something that can be generated as an extraordinary event, it's not something that happens often, but it has happened, now currently in football games I have seen results that I never thought I could have seen, teams that I think are very good lose to teams that are almost at the bottom of the table, that is something impressive.

I am also noticing this. Nowadays, especially club matches are becoming completely unpredictable. Where it is not clear who will actually win. The main reason for this, which you mentioned, is that even strong teams are losing. Earlier, I used to see that after playing many matches, they would lose due to some unexpected reason. But now, normally, if a weak team changes its strategy and if it works well, then even after playing well, the strong team loses.

On the other hand, due to some weak teams defensive play, many times strong teams cannot score goals. When they start playing very aggressively, then suddenly if the weak team scores a goal, then they cannot goal again , nor can they even win. This has become quite common, and this is why many strong teams are also losing.

Though there is no specific reason for the loss of strong teams against weak, I think that those teams usually do not give much importance to the weak teams, which is why they lose those matches. In some cases, the performance of the players of the weak team is also good, that is the reason they win. In some causes strategy help the weaker team to win and  sometimes weak teams can win because of their luck. Some times a small mistake by the strong team can bring defeat against weak team in a match.

[Orpichukwu]

Indeed, as even how think you are sure with the outcome or how big is the advantages upset can still happen, so it won't  be a suprise if something messed up with you bet, better to move forward and accept it, there's no way that you can always win though by skills and better understanding about the game, the chance to find the right pick might be possible if the player or team you select will perform the way you expect them to be that gives a better chance but still not an assurance to win.

There is always no assurance; no matter how good the person is at predicting, the team can still perform as good as we expect them to perform, but one simple mistake can lead them into losing, and they won't expect it. The same thing can happen with their opponent; they could be lesser in terms of strength, but luck winning can also favour them.

[junder]

The strategy in betting does not have to be considered in detail, because after all, to win luck determines it but it is not wrong to also use strategies that can increase the chances of winning.
 
The strategy that we should pay attention to is a strategy in terms of gambling where we must have the right strategy when the results are obtained, whether it is losing or winning, knowing when to stop is a wise strategy in gambling.

[Betwrong]

My honest opinion is that there’s no strategy that works every time

@rdluffy What about the owner of Brighton? They say he made his fortune through betting 🤔
~

It's like replying to someone who says, “You can’t make a living by playing the lottery.”, with "What about those people that won millions?". It's a chance, you know. With many millions of participants anything is possible, but if we are talking about the vast majority of sports bettors, I agree with those saying, "there’s no strategy that works every time".

[Swordsoffreedom]

Slot games happens to be the most difficult game for me because when I'm gambling on it the rate at which the amount I have reduces is something I can't control so most times I don't get lucky due to the budget I make since I hardly get winning on it but for some gamblers tht still have more reasons to gamble due to their luck it's important have a good budget because slot games favours a strong minded person you can't gamble and lose once and decide to quit it's impossible for you to make profit.

Gambling is a terrible  thing. If we cannot control ourselves, it can  bankrupt us in a very short time. Your strategy  is right for this. Setting a  budget is the most practical strategy for us now.

If we set a budget , it will be easier to control ourselves. Because even if we want to, we cannot go beyond the specified budget. As a result, money will not be  spent. Secondly, if we set a specific budget, the risk of taking high risks will also be  reduced. We will avoid high risks, as a result, the possibility of losing money will also be reduced.

[eisen33]

Slot games happens to be the most difficult game for me because when I'm gambling on it the rate at which the amount I have reduces is something I can't control so most times I don't get lucky due to the budget I make since I hardly get winning on it but for some gamblers tht still have more reasons to gamble due to their luck it's important have a good budget because slot games favours a strong minded person you can't gamble and lose once and decide to quit it's impossible for you to make profit.

A large gambling budget can also become a trap. If you play slots and believe that you are bound to get lucky and hit a big win, and that you therefore need a large deposit, that can be a mistake. While playing, you may still win from time to time, but those wins can be small and may not cover all of your previous losses. And the truly big win or jackpot may never come at all. That is why you should not connect these two ideas, luck and a large deposit, because it does not always work that way. There are people who have lost huge amounts of money, even their homes, because they believed they would eventually win a jackpot.