BTC Sentiment Poll for May

[tokeweed]

Analysts believe that Bitcoin is undervalued, and very much so. Here is the "Rainbow" chart adjusted for volatility: the fair value calculated according to the model is 177 thousand dollars. This means a discount of about 55% relative to the current BTC price, meaning the market is trading significantly below the trajectory predicted by the model within the current halving cycle.
At the same time, the model does not exclude a further decline and does not exclude the possibility that the price may decrease significantly over the next ~6 months.

So I'm wondering...  What would happen to the 'Rainbow Chart' if BTC trended down to around 40k in the next 5 - 6 months?  Does that mean the chart is invalid and the guy who made it will need to make more adjustments to keep the price in the rainbow?  Lolol.

I think I've seen it 'adjusted' a couple of times since it was made in 2014 or something.

[avp2306]

Analysts believe that Bitcoin is undervalued, and very much so. Here is the "Rainbow" chart adjusted for volatility: the fair value calculated according to the model is 177 thousand dollars. This means a discount of about 55% relative to the current BTC price, meaning the market is trading significantly below the trajectory predicted by the model within the current halving cycle.
At the same time, the model does not exclude a further decline and does not exclude the possibility that the price may decrease significantly over the next ~6 months.

So I'm wondering...  What would happen to the 'Rainbow Chart' if BTC trended down to around 40k in the next 5 - 6 months?  Does that mean the chart is invalid and the guy who made it will need to make more adjustments to keep the price in the rainbow?  Lolol.

I think I've seen it 'adjusted' a couple of times since it was made in 2014 or something.

For what I know the rainbow chart is not use as a prediction tool. This is more use to have fun visualization on potential trajectory of Bitcoin.

If it happens that the price of Bitcoin would slide down to $40k, this provably not going to break those chart, this one only shows that Bitcoin price is current at lower rate. It was been tweaked by the creators itself for several times to make it aligned on the long term growth of Bitcoin, so those adjustments we see is normal and not mean to be accurate or perfect. This is just another way to remind people that Bitcoin moves in each cycles.

[Grease5000]

There is a high possibility of Bitcoin hitting 80000k  and staying there before month end. I think it's in it consolidation period and will  bounce back  to hit 80k  and above before month end

[M47AK16]

It will never be easy for hodlers or investors, because they have to plan well to be able to know how many months or years they are going to hodl their BTC before they can change their minds to sell. I know that some people are afraid of this current dump of the price of BTC few hours ago, because they are waiting for the green light to remain stable before the end of this week before they can sell than to seen a massive dump that happened to make the price to dump below $80k.

Despite what is happening now it will not make the red light to push people to experience bear market again, because there are some signs that the red light will turn to green light before the end of this week and it will make some not to focus on what is happening now. I guess $100k is possible in this month of May and it will make some to sell their BTC to earn what will make them to increase their capital to buy BTC in the future.

That is not something you can always predict, you hope for it but sometimes it doesn't go as well as you hope for it. I understand that most people think that they are going to do fine, but in many cases there are situations where we end up with bad results. We should realize that it is not as good as we think, because sometimes unexpected expenses happens and you need to cash it out. Of course you wish to not do that, but twice in my life I had to cash out all that I saved, resulted in many profits lost, but I had to. Right now, bitcoin is trying find a support around $76k and I hope it will hold and bitcoin to bounce back toward $80k zone again.

[blomen]

i think the four of us who voted “no” will have made the right call. bitcoin is losing its upward momentum, and this will be the fourth consecutive day of decline. the price might climb back above $80,000 after this, but i think it will drop further in may. the uptrend that has been ongoing since the beginning of april appears to have broken.

still, this means we can buy bitcoin at a lower price, so it’s a good situation. there’s no need to fear the dip.

[Smack That Ace]

i think the four of us who voted “no” will have made the right call. bitcoin is losing its upward momentum, and this will be the fourth consecutive day of decline. the price might climb back above $80,000 after this, but i think it will drop further in may. the uptrend that has been ongoing since the beginning of april appears to have broken.

still, this means we can buy bitcoin at a lower price, so it’s a good situation. there’s no need to fear the dip.

There are still more than 10 days left in May, and we all know that just one piece of news can flip the market at any time. It is still too early to conclude who is right and who is wrong.

However, it must also be acknowledged that the market outlook right now does not look very promising. Since the meeting between Trump and Xi, the situation in the Middle East has been heating up again. If the war continues, this will have a significant impact on the market.

I voted "yes" before, and I m not changing my position regardless of what is happening now

[tokeweed]

Analysts believe that Bitcoin is undervalued, and very much so. Here is the "Rainbow" chart adjusted for volatility: the fair value calculated according to the model is 177 thousand dollars. This means a discount of about 55% relative to the current BTC price, meaning the market is trading significantly below the trajectory predicted by the model within the current halving cycle.
At the same time, the model does not exclude a further decline and does not exclude the possibility that the price may decrease significantly over the next ~6 months.

So I'm wondering...  What would happen to the 'Rainbow Chart' if BTC trended down to around 40k in the next 5 - 6 months?  Does that mean the chart is invalid and the guy who made it will need to make more adjustments to keep the price in the rainbow?  Lolol.

I think I've seen it 'adjusted' a couple of times since it was made in 2014 or something.

For what I know the rainbow chart is not use as a prediction tool. This is more use to have fun visualization on potential trajectory of Bitcoin.

If so then I think the guy who made the chart should take off all the stuff at the top of the chart where it says 'fire sale, buy, still cheap', etc.. 

It goes back to question what happens to the rainbow chart if BTC goes below the 'fire sale' range.    Is it the range where it's time to panic? 

[Just Say]

There is a high possibility of Bitcoin hitting 80000k  and staying there before month end. I think it's in it consolidation period and will  bounce back  to hit 80k  and above before month end

We are in the middle of May 2026 but for the past few days, there have been signs of a bullish violation of the BTC market and BTC is losing its upward momentum, so you can see that the market is not stable now. Another thing to note is that it has been on an upward trend since the beginning of April, but recently it has been falling for four consecutive days. One thing I have noticed is that there is positive news in the market because Iran is again looking to accept Bitcoin from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, i.e. they have launched a Bitcoin-based insurance service called Hormuz Safe, but even then it has not had a positive impact on the BTC market at all and it doesn't look like BTC will return to the $80,000 zone this month.

[suzanne5223]

There is a high possibility of Bitcoin hitting 80000k  and staying there before month end. I think it's in it consolidation period and will  bounce back  to hit 80k  and above before month end

We are in the middle of May 2026 but for the past few days, there have been signs of a bullish violation of the BTC market and BTC is losing its upward momentum, so you can see that the market is not stable now. Another thing to note is that it has been on an upward trend since the beginning of April, but recently it has been falling for four consecutive days. One thing I have noticed is that there is positive news in the market because Iran is again looking to accept Bitcoin from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, i.e. they have launched a Bitcoin-based insurance service called Hormuz Safe, but even then it has not had a positive impact on the BTC market at all and it doesn't look like BTC will return to the $80,000 zone this month.

The Bitcoin market seems to be losing it upside momentum due to low liquidity, and footing the 4 hours chart of BTC, the market is ranging lately, which i believe was triggered by the traders not putting much capital into the market, maybe they are waiting for the US president's decision after the deal with Iran didn't go through. However, there seems to be a lot of insider trading going on in the market, and for Iran accepting BTC for ship passes, let's not forget that, as it will impact the market positively, it will also need to dump in price when they decide to sell off.

[Bit-Mj1014]

https://talkimg.com/images/2026/05/13/UJeXHT.jpeg

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator. The on-chain "traffic light" is currently showing green. The indicator looks at real transactions on the blockchain - BTC holders are currently in profit or at a loss. It combines several metrics (MVRV, NUPL, SOPR) into one P&L Index and compares it with the annual average.
Color: Green (early bullish) → orange → red (overheating) → blue (bearish). This is not a price forecast, but a market phase.
Now, for the first time since March 2023, the indicator has re-entered the Early Bull green zone.
The price is holding higher lows, ETF inflows are positive, sentiment is recovering - a classic way out of bearish consolidation.
Bitcoin still depends on the Macro: Fed policy, DXY, liquidity flows.

I think its very interesting to see the early Bull zone back in play for the first time since 2023. It definitely feels like the market structure is trying to heal, and seeing holders back in profit is a great sign. That said, I'm keeping a close eye on the Fed and macro liquidity that's usually what decides if these signals actually stick or turn into a trap.