Jumping From One Party To Another Is A Weak Political Strategy

[HyperCodexV]

Not many will agree with this. Some will say Nigerian politics has always been about alliances, negotiations, and timing. Some will argue that power is taken, not built. Others will insist that switching parties is simply strategy. But something has shifted.

Quietly at first but now more visibly and if you pay close attention, you will see it clearly. Nigeria is moving from the era of political luck to the era of political structure. The Old Game used to be, Power by Arrangement. For a long time, becoming president in Nigeria did not always require building a political structure from scratch. All it requires is * positioning * alliances * timing * and sometimes, circumstance.

Take the case of 1999. General (Rtd) Olusegun Obasanjo did not emerge from years of building a political machine within the party. His emergence was largely shaped by national sentiment after the annulment of June 12 and the need to balance regional grievances. It was not purely a grassroots rise, It was just a political settlement. Then came 2007 where the mantle of power was handed over, not built. When it was time to transition in 2007, the system again revealed its nature. Umaru Musa Yar’adua emerged not as the result of a visible, nationwide political build up, but through internal arrangements within the ruling party.

His health challenges were known, his campaign was minimal and  yet he became president. That tells you something about the system at the time.
Then the case of 2010 – 2011 Clearly Power by Succession. Goodluck Jonathan rose to power following the death of his predecessor and retained the structure he inherited. Again, the system worked in favor of continuity, not necessarily construction.

Then fast forward to 2015, The First Real Structural Shift. 2015 was different because for the first time, we saw * coalition building * merger of parties * alignment of multiple political blocs. The formation of APC from ACN, CPC and others was not luck. It was structure. It was deliberate. It showed that power could be built, not just inherited or arranged.

Then came 2023 The Turning Point, something deeper happened. Bola Ahmed Tinubu had spent years outside the executive office, yet maintained influence through * party structure * political relationships  * long-term investment in people. He did not just appear. He had built and that build held.

So the new reality on the ground now is structure over movement and this is where i feel the likes of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Peter Obi are still missing it. The game has changed, you cannot in good conscience, jump from party to party, depend on sentiment, rely on last minute alignment and expect to win. That model is clearly unstable, unpredictable, dependent on luck and luck is not a strategy.

[Cryptomultiplier]

I don't really like political discussions, but one thing I can say is that Tinubu might likely still win the next election in this country by 2027 and that's because someone who came into power by hook or by crook due to mastery of structure and strategy and has built and maintained it for a long time, is now the current sitting president and grand commander of the federal Republic of this country.

It is always hard to win a sitting president in this country mostly during a second election and the one example I can give where this happened in the opposite direction, was when Late Buhari came into power, when he won over President Jonathan who was vying for a normal second tenure besides the years he had been at the top of government power for years from vise president to president.

[Biirakedee]

In advanced democracies, politicians stay in one party and build ideology and structure but for naija na stomach infrastructure, once dem no win ticket or dem see better position, dem go jump like grasshopper. Today APC, tomorrow PDP, next tomorrow ADC or NDC.
Even though sometimes jumping fit be for survival or principle but too much of it shows lack of conviction. How person go build strong party if the leaders themselves no get loyalty. In the end the people suffer because dem no get consistent vision.

[Charles-Tim]

So the new reality on the ground now is structure over movement and this is where i feel the likes of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Peter Obi are still missing it. The game has changed, you cannot in good conscience, jump from party to party, depend on sentiment, rely on last minute alignment and expect to win. That model is clearly unstable, unpredictable, dependent on luck and luck is not a strategy.

Are you implying that if you know you are within some enemies that can not get you the 2027 presidential ticket, that it is good to stay in the party?

Public opinions is in support of what Peter Obi did, but it gives way to Tinubu.

The problem is not the party that Peter Obi joined, but the man they are contesting with is very wise in politics, and what he did increased the chance that the president may win the second time.

[Justbillywitt]

Let the incumbent president allow free and fair election in the country then we will know if moving from one party to another is actually worth it or not. What do you expect the likes of Peter Obi and others to do when the government of the day is frustrating their efforts to build a political party, by making sure they cause internal trouble within the parties. The people are the structure not the political parties, Peter Obi and even the president knows that political parties don't win you election but the voters do. Tinubu himself has benefited from moving from one party to another in the past, it's not now that it will be considered a weak political strategy.

[Shineup]

Let the incumbent president allow free and fair election in the country then we will know if moving from one party to another is actually worth it or not. What do you expect the likes of Peter Obi and others to do when the government of the day is frustrating their efforts to build a political party, by making sure they cause internal trouble within the parties. The people are the structure not the political parties, Peter Obi and even the president knows that political parties don't win you election but the voters do. Tinubu himself has benefited from moving from one party to another in the past, it's not now that it will be considered a weak political strategy.

If everyone is actually allowed which of course yes to exercise their franchis then I don't see any reason considering moving from one party to another a weak political strategy, I believe one thing that motivates people to be moving from one party to another is that when they feel that their relevance are being taken for granted or not being noticed based on their own personal interest they end up moving around different parties where they can be valued and accord the respect they needed, there can be other reasons though this is one among them which I don't really see anything wrong with that. Our government are so corrupt that I don't think if people votes are being counted those with the highest power of their opposition parties always emerge in positions based on selection and is hard to see a free and fair election.

[Berry2d]

I don’t know if I will say that the same way politics is practiced in Nigeria is same as that of other countries because what I see over there is different from the leadership system of Nigeria. In Nigeria now our leadership system is based of bribery and accompanied with corruption without any consciousness of how the poor masses feel all because of how corrupt there mindset is.
So if a leader that has good intentions for the country sees something different from what was expected from unset the only solution is see is complete dumping of the party to a better one that is ready to operate with sincerity

[Chinesebaby]

Then came 2023 The Turning Point, something deeper happened. Bola Ahmed Tinubu had spent years outside the executive office, yet maintained influence through * party structure * political relationships  * long-term investment in people. He did not just appear. He had built and that build held.

So the new reality on the ground now is structure over movement and this is where i feel the likes of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Peter Obi are still missing it. The game has changed, you cannot in good conscience, jump from party to party, depend on sentiment, rely on last minute alignment and expect to win. That model is clearly unstable, unpredictable, dependent on luck and luck is not a strategy.

What structure are you even talking about, is it the structure of using thugs to hijack ballot boxes during election day? or is it the structure of forcefully declaring yourself winner of the 2023 presidential election even while knowing fully well that you didn't get half of the total votes in the Federal Capital Territory Abuja as clearly stated in the Electoral Act as one of the conditions the presidential winner must get. Because to be honest, this administration don't have any structure apart from borrowing millions of dollars worth of loans, taxing us like crazy and embezzling our funds to buy properties abroad.

[LOVER BOY 422]

So the new reality on the ground now is structure over movement and this is where i feel the likes of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Peter Obi are still missing it. The game has changed, you cannot in good conscience, jump from party to party, depend on sentiment, rely on last minute alignment and expect to win. That model is clearly unstable, unpredictable, dependent on luck and luck is not a strategy.

Are you implying that if you know you are within some enemies that can not get you the 2027 presidential ticket, that it is good to stay in the party?

Public opinions is in support of what Peter Obi did, but it gives way to Tinubu.

The problem is not the party that Peter Obi joined, but the man they are contesting with is very wise in politics, and what he did increased the chance that the president may win the second time.

I understand you perfectly, but Peter obi defect from  ADC is a wick part he played because to me obi can never see the seat of president this time even in the next tenure, because it's very poor if him to defeat to ADC what he is supposed to do is to be the vice president of Atiku and they will put heads together to win Tinubu, but no he leaves to another party this is so bad actually why not face your fear, one thing about this politice is he doesn't want to serve anymore, he want to be the boss.

Which he can't because the road has a big barrier covering it , he doesn't want to step down for Atiku and one party can't provide two candidates at the same time it can't happen that's the more reason he left to NDC.

Peter obi is just wasting his time in this race he need to bear it and be a vice president so that his dream can be achieved in the nearest future, if not his dream and aspirations will just die a natural death , some times someone need to think smart , this NDC is a new party and their is no faith in their that someone will  think he will win APC and ADC in the this 2027 election.

For all I know Atiku is the next president of this country Nigeria,  because the hand writting has written it very BOLD that's it but for someone to think that Atiku will step down for Tinebu, I totally disagree with that.