An experiment: is BTC halving cycle effect on prices valid in 2026-2027 ?

[MadSl1m]

The part worth poking at is the low series itself. Your cycle lows run 2, 165, 3233, 15760, and the multiple between each one is collapsing: 82x, then 20x, then 4.9x. If that decay keeps roughly quartering, the next multiple is near 1.2x, which lands around $19K, below your 30-40K. To reach 30-40K the multiple has to flatten to about 2x, and that only holds if there's a floor. Which is where dansus021's realized-price point fits: the post-ETF institutional bid is what would stop the old decay and hold the low higher than the raw extrapolation. So your range is really a bet that the realized-price floor beats the historical multiple decay, worth saying which one it leans on.

[JaanusRaim]

The part worth poking at is the low series itself. Your cycle lows run 2, 165, 3233, 15760, and the multiple between each one is collapsing: 82x, then 20x, then 4.9x. If that decay keeps roughly quartering, the next multiple is near 1.2x, which lands around $19K, below your 30-40K. To reach 30-40K the multiple has to flatten to about 2x, and that only holds if there's a floor. Which is where dansus021's realized-price point fits: the post-ETF institutional bid is what would stop the old decay and hold the low higher than the raw extrapolation. So your range is really a bet that the realized-price floor beats the historical multiple decay, worth saying which one it leans on.

It seems to me that you are taking account only the second column.... but the first column is important also

I         26         2
II     1132     165
III  19345    3233
IV  67549   15760
V  124749

[EarnOnVictor]

Are people still watching halving? The last halving was a disappointment, as nothing reasonable happened, which makes it clear that Bitcoin might not be adhering to many things of old. It's place was taken by the hypes around the the ETF saga, to the point that when the halving finally happened, it was negligible in effect.

Well, this time could be different because there's no ETF or any similar events that would disrupt it. In the absence of that, I predict a late bull run and an effective halving to preserve Bitcoin's tradition.

[AVE5]

You can't predict the exact pattern at which bitcoin is going to take in making all time high when it comes to next season bullrun, just the same way we couldn't predict on the last one as we have it even before the halving event take place, next season could be during or after halving, this is why we have to be in the right position with bitcoin investment and also decided to stay close to making profit irrespective of the pattern it's taking by then.

Okay let's get this bitcoin prediction right as we also speculates, it's not that the market can't be predictable in the future term. The doubts of the prediction comes from the moments where "NON PREDICTIONS" is guaranteed to be reliable and even when you apply to use the past market patterns as a tool to do your analysis, you can still get it wrong.
So it's always a LUCKY basis.
I'm also sure that the halving usually comes before the bull events which triggers price to new Ath when it comes to the 4 years bitcoin cycle. So we should still expect this season to be repetitive as the other seasons. I'm still judging according to previous experiences that has seem to be traditional though.

[barbara44]

The present dip is not enough to make me greedy   

The extraordinarily strong stock market supports crypto prices at the moment - the prices just can not fall to the really interesting area because the economy as a whole is still in a good shape.

And at the first place, it was not really the dip is the ones that can make us greedy anyway but it was the opposite of it or the pump. It is just that some veterans can only buy at the dip sometimes if they have money in addition to what they already have.

As a dip is still a better buy than any other times. That was nice to hear if it is true that the stock market is now supporting crypto to not fall heavily. I really thought both are different. I don't hear updates about the last time's war, so maybe that was true that the economy is now in good shape and so as the stocks but that must also be the reason on why crypto didn't dip that much?