Bull, bear or crab? Where are we? A quick poll

[thecodebear]

Guess it depends what you consider to be bull or bear market. We are obviously still in the lower end of the 60k-126k price range, but I think it's pretty clear 60k was the bottom and it'd take a very serious shock to the market to reverse things and drag it back down to that level.

So if by bull market you just mean the bottom is in and price is heading up, yep it's a bull market. But if by bull market you mean sentiment is high and price is gonna keep pumping a ton and blow by the ATH anytime soon, well obviously that's not the 2026 market.

The market has turned the corner, bottoms are in and price is gradually grinding up, but sentiment and buy pressure is not there for what I think people would say is need to consider it a bull market. I'd expect that to happen second half of 2027 as that is when I think we'll see it approach as pass the ATH as it moves that next step higher during some time period ranging in 2027/2028/2029.

[savetheFORUM]

of course we are in bear season or the market is bearish compared to the previous bitcoin ATH of $126k, and the four years circle has not changed by the way, its just the way the market behave last year and this year that makes it look like the circle have shifted. but trust me nothing has changed, bitcoin will be bullish when the time is right, but as for now we are currently in bear season. although to some may be confusing the constant growth of bitcoin to be bull, but we all know the pattern, it is too early to call it bull, we are definitely in bear season.

I almost forget that we are still in a bear because of the recoveries and then I got used to this situation already. It just feels like a normal market anyway. Bear is more convincing if the price keeps on dropping even by just a little and then if it got stable on an obvious lower value. If about the 4-year circle/cycle, last year was still covered by it anyway. The bull on the 4th year can only be short but it was the bear is long and can accumulate most of those 4 years.

Not sure if some are only blinded by the truth or they genuinely forget that we are still inside the pattern just like me. But a constant growth really is one of the factors of a bull run too.

[pawel7777]

Thanks to all who voted so far and shame on those who didn't    We would have twice as many votes if all of those who posted in this topic also bothered to cast a vote.
Just bumping it up for more visibility.

It looks like we have a small consensus, as everyone seems to agree that we are likely still in the bear market.

The actual market either disagrees or is not bothered with a long-term trend, as today we are up by +2.5%. The daily high went just a little over $82k.

The Fear & Greed CMC index is pointing exactly at the middle, with a neutral value of 50. I think that's more of a bearish sign, i.e. it means we can go much lower if the mood changes due to some negative macroeconomic news etc.

[jossiel]

Too early for consolidation IMHO but the market can shift any moment, any time. It's expected to see that this is the bear.

And once bear is done, then the consolidation should be the next thing.

Thanks to all who voted so far and shame on those who didn't    We would have twice as many votes if all of those who posted in this topic also bothered to cast a vote.

Other members won't see it if it's not bumped and they only check this section when there's a sudden movement of Bitcoin's price.

[I_Anime]

Base in recent market trend we are in a strong bullish trend , we should be expecting bear market the mid of this year base on historical data ( but imo we partially already bear market) , due to the drop from 6 digits back to 5 digits .

I will say $100k is the strong resistance we have to take down now , before price could push further . But if it turn out couldn’t take it down , we will be expecting a massive drop down to the price range of $60k (speculation) , right now the market is not consolidating so is out of the picture for now.

[YOSHIE]

What market do we have right now?

Let's look at the experience that has occurred several halvings for Bitcoin, the current situation I speculate is more towards a bear market, but I speculate that the bear market has not yet reached its maximum, it is likely that the bear market will continue.

Now in 2026 the next halving is predicted to occur in 2028, meaning there are still two years left for the actual development of Bitcoin, that is my speculation, maybe we will see the peak of the bear market occur this year, Maybe at the end of the year, entering 2027, we might also see a change in the price of Bitcoin, before the next halving and ATH occur.

[Darker45]

I think we're generally in a bear season, but perhaps already starting to consolidate. I guess the fear of falling down further is gone now, more or less. There are in fact a number of attempts to break away from $80,000 for good, but apparently, they aren't strong enough. However, the possibility of going back to the danger of losing $60,000 is out of the picture already. So, while we're still in the bear market, we've already gone past the bottom. The direction it seems is already upward.

[GreatArkansas]

Lol. It's my first time hearing there's a term for "Crab".

Well, for me, I'm bullish now, especially after we left the $60,000 level, which I believe that was the crab season recently. Now that we are above $80,000, I am positive we can easily reach $100,000 anytime.

[AakZaki]

Well, for me, I'm bullish now, especially after we left the $60,000 level, which I believe that was the crab season recently. Now that we are above $80,000, I am positive we can easily reach $100,000 anytime.

I'd say the opposite bro. That Bitcoin will not reach $100,000 this year, as this year the bearish season is underway. I still project the price of Bitcoin to reach below $60,000 this year.

I saw two attempts at the price of Bitcoin to break through the strong resistance around $82,400 but they all failed.
I have done some analysis both as shown by the Indicators and from the historical data during the bearish season.

First Based on Technical Analysis: On the 1W timeframe, I see a pattern that allows for an Elliot Wave pattern to occur in the Downward direction, the Elliot Wave generally occurs like the ABCDE ladder but in the direction of the Down, A is below the price ATH before the price increases occur in the direction of B and E is at the very bottom of the ATL. Currently I see that the price of Bitcoin has started to fall from Elliot Wave D which is possible to reach Elliot Wave E.

On the occasion I have described that between A-B and C-D also shows a double flag pattern, where when price B or D does not break out it allows the price to reach the next low.

Second, Based on Bearish Data History 2022: Previously I wouldn't say that historical data will be exactly the same, But what we do know is that bearish history keeps repeating itself every 4 years. here I will compair with the history of May 2022: In May the price of that time fell by about 36% from the high point of May 2022 to the end of May 2022.

Meanwhile, currently from the highest price in May 2026 until now on May 16, 2026, it has decreased by 6.3%, and there are still about 15 days left. In this point what I want to show is the repeated decline in the bearish season. Regarding the percentage value, we will see in the next two weeks.

[STT]

Crab Ive never heard of before and that fits my general take in sideways movement overfall till we consolidate as said.  You can tell its a crab because the the 200 day is still negative movement every day we move further into the mud;  the fall has to be arrested then traded against with buyers until its positive once again.
  200 days does not suggest a quick turn around not when it contains alot of the prior selling still in its totals.

[laijsica]

I thought the bear market was over but I'm a little confused by the last two days of price action. I don't see any reason for a correction but the price is still trending lower.

I personally was bullish because I've been seeing corrections for months and have been accumulating Bitcoin. There is still a possibility of a return to that old trend but I think Bitcoin price will continue to correction for the rest of this month.

[m2017]

Just a quick vibe check to check the community's sentiment, given opinions in different threads vary quite a lot.

Opinions do vary greatly, and I think it will be no different here. I also believe that each user's opinion may also differ (fluctuate) depending on what's happening in the market. "Yesterday", the price was rising and it seemed like the bulls were coming, but "today", there's a pullback, and faith in the bulls is waning.

Personally, I expected a bear market, which would be in line with the typical 4-year cycle pattern, but maybe we're already in a different paradigm, and old patterns can be put away.

What other paradigm could there be? You can't just cancel out a pattern. I've had this persistent feeling that the market was in a bearish cycle, and even a short-term rally couldn't force me to change my mind. Look, the market has turned down again. Does this sound like a bullish trend? So, is this a hesitant bull?

[Out of mind]

Personally, i believe we are still in a bear market, even though Bitcoin is currently rallying and showing a slight increase, this doesn’t mean we’ve escaped the bear market. In fact, when viewed on a high time frame, it’s clear that the overall trend is still downward. Bitcoin has fallen to a very low level, around 50% and it’s possible that in the coming month, Bitcoin will reach a price lower than $60k, perhaps down to the key level at $50k. Who knows, everyone is just speculating based on their own analysis, though i hope the decline is over and that prices will continue to rise even higher than the ATH.

Since you personally do not see the possibility of Bitcoin increasing, I think you may still be hoping that the market will fall. But I think since the market was very down a few months ago and it was dumped more than half from the highest ATH. Although the market has now increased slightly compared to before, I think that the way it is increasing consistently every month, we may be gradually moving towards bullish. However, I think the possibility of the market coming between $60k and $50k is very low and I personally think that the Bitcoin market will move towards $85k to $90k next month. Although we are already seeing some dumping from $82k to $78k, it may have been a temporary decline. I think the way the market is moving, there is the highest possibility that the market will gradually reach the highest ATH and increase several times more.

[Darker45]

~snip~

What other paradigm could there be? You can't just cancel out a pattern. I've had this persistent feeling that the market was in a bearish cycle, and even a short-term rally couldn't force me to change my mind. Look, the market has turned down again. Does this sound like a bullish trend? So, is this a hesitant bull?

Apparently, we aren't yet in a bull season. And $80,000 is quite hard to let go. Although a number of attempts at breaking it have been successful lately, it's obvious the demand pressure can't sustain. They seem nothing more than pullbacks. The price eventually goes down below $80,000.

On the other hand, however, it seems the $74,000-$75,000 range provides a solid support. I'm optimistic $80,000 is softer to break than $75,000.

Anyway, a new paradigm could happen within the year. Is reaching $100,000 within 2026 enough to consider that there's already a new paradigm that operates in the market?

[yhiaali3]

I still believe that we are in a bearish season so far. It is true that Bitcoin rose to around $83k, but it has now fallen back to below $78k and may fall even further.

So far, there is no completely clear direction for Bitcoin's next path, but despite everything, I think we will remain in a bearish season until at least the end of the year, although we may see some good ups due to some positive news or the entry of new liquidity.