Bitcoin Just Broke a 14-Year Record — And That's Exactly Why $60K Is Back on the

[Alpen]

Bitcoin's bounce off the February lows lasted more than 90 days. According to analyst Matthew Hyland, the longest uptrend in BTC history ran 89 days — making this one already a record.

That historical milestone hints at a likely sharp correction ahead. A Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern has already formed on the chart, reinforced by a double top. If the neckline breaks, analyst Michaël van de Poppe is calling for a drop to $60K.

Polymarket currently puts the odds of BTC falling to $55K this year at 51%. The $60K level also lines up with the cost of mining, which makes it a natural floor for any Bitcoin selloff.

That said, many analysts don't expect a new yearly low. The ongoing redistribution of coins from retail traders to institutional wallets has handed the latter control over roughly 70% of Bitcoin's circulating supply — which gives them a strong incentive to defend price levels.

[STT]

Not sure that when I'm looking back at recent BTC history to February I'm thinking its so bullish, what a great bounce upwards.  Challenged is my general take and a rise under fire; this can bear strength later but its not apparent.
  I wouldn't call this pullback now as a sharp failure either, the idea of a head and shoulders move that must complete; I dont rate that pattern formation as that useful to me personally past or present.

The chart is a bit too small for me to examine fully, but its a little too short term imo.  The real momentum for BTC would be weekly closing bars if possible or days if you want to call it short term but examining the smaller time periods I expect them to be surpassed by the larger elements.
  Just something as simple as 200 day moving average gives us the correct temperature overall, its the most referenced and familiar indicator worldwide and generally works.  I see it is in decline and I expect BTC to be hesitant until that measure receives enough positive trades to turn the tide.

  Doubts are normal but we're in an area of trading back and forth, I wont expect 55k especially and I need to see a break down and a definite negative trend not just profit taking etc.  I'd rather lay 55k as a price bet then expect it to pay off here just now.

[Hatchy]

Bitcoin's bounce off the February lows lasted more than 90 days. According to analyst Matthew Hyland, the longest uptrend in BTC history ran 89 days — making this one already a record.

I already knew that the past few months bullish trends were just a mere trend. Probably a short reaction from the war btw Iran and US. The current pull back is signifying that bitcoin is likely to drop lower, but I'm not sure where. Any strong level below the $70k might be able to hold it from creating a new low but that depends. Currently we are in a bearish trend and many elements already proves that..

  Doubts are normal but we're in an area of trading back and forth, I wont expect 55k especially and I need to see a break down and a definite negative trend not just profit taking etc.  I'd rather lay 55k as a price bet then expect it to pay off here just now.

I agree with you, the back and forth movement started in February. Though because if the bullish movement in April we all thought that we might ascend higher. Indeed the market was just not ready for the bulls. If we break below the last held low in February, then we indeed will be going lower. Let's not hope that happens..

[Oshosondy]

That said, many analysts don't expect a new yearly low. The ongoing redistribution of coins from retail traders to institutional wallets has handed the latter control over roughly 70% of Bitcoin's circulating supply — which gives them a strong incentive to defend price levels.

I saw something like this on the news, that the institutions are the one that are buying most bitcoin and that the recent buy are now mostly from them which can make the price of bitcoin not to get below $60000 again this year. I saw it as a is just a speculation, it is a good analysis but anything can still happen. I still think bitcoin will fall, but getting below $60000 may be very difficult. I am expecting bitcoin to still go below $70000 if it is just one more time.

[o48o]

Bitcoin's bounce off the February lows lasted more than 90 days. According to analyst Matthew Hyland, the longest uptrend in BTC history ran 89 days — making this one already a record.

That historical milestone hints at a likely sharp correction ahead. A Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern has already formed on the chart, reinforced by a double top. If the neckline breaks, analyst Michaël van de Poppe is calling for a drop to $60K.

Polymarket currently puts the odds of BTC falling to $55K this year at 51%. The $60K level also lines up with the cost of mining, which makes it a natural floor for any Bitcoin selloff.

That said, many analysts don't expect a new yearly low. The ongoing redistribution of coins from retail traders to institutional wallets has handed the latter control over roughly 70% of Bitcoin's circulating supply — which gives them a strong incentive to defend price levels.

Not sure why. I've been watching that head and shoulder pattern, and it's so clear that even if you wouldn't believe TA patterns, it could be self fulfilling prophecy.

I am not sure why words of these "many analysts" should weigh anything, as many analysts are always going to be wrong. I could be as well, as they are all more or less educated guesses. There are just too much information to speculate with, and it doesn't help that bottom value can't really be calculated.

[Alpen]

That said, many analysts don't expect a new yearly low. The ongoing redistribution of coins from retail traders to institutional wallets has handed the latter control over roughly 70% of Bitcoin's circulating supply — which gives them a strong incentive to defend price levels.

I saw something like this on the news, that the institutions are the one that are buying most bitcoin and that the recent buy are now mostly from them which can make the price of bitcoin not to get below $60000 again this year. I saw it as a is just a speculation, it is a good analysis but anything can still happen. I still think bitcoin will fall, but getting below $60000 may be very difficult. I am expecting bitcoin to still go below $70000 if it is just one more time.

CryptoQuant analysts are actually saying the exact opposite right now. Data from recent weeks shows massive institutional distribution of Bitcoin. This is clearly visible through persistent ETF outflows, a dropping Coinbase Premium, and a spike in exchange inflows of ancient coins (up to 12 years old).

On the flip side, retail traders are still actively buying BTC. Personally, I think we're just looking at a seasonal capital reallocation

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Bitcoin's bounce off the February lows lasted more than 90 days. According to analyst Matthew Hyland, the longest uptrend in BTC history ran 89 days — making this one already a record.

This reminds me of the statistics that sports commentators are always going on about. I don’t see that record-breaking feat as particularly significant.

That historical milestone hints at a likely sharp correction ahead. A Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern has already formed on the chart, reinforced by a double top. If the neckline breaks, analyst Michaël van de Poppe is calling for a drop to $60K.

Polymarket currently puts the odds of BTC falling to $55K this year at 51%.

If I didn’t find the premise meaningful, I’m not going to find the conclusion meaningful either. And if we’re to trust Polymarket, we might as well flip a coin.

[hugeblack]

Bitcoin's bounce off the February lows lasted more than 90 days. According to analyst Matthew Hyland, the longest uptrend in BTC history ran 89 days — making this one already a record.

I didn't understand if this means we're in an uptrend and a correction is imminent, or what?

A correction is possible due to inflation indicators, so even without any technical indicators, reaching the $60,000 level is still a possibility.

[blomen]

in my opinion, polymarket’s analyses offer very little guidance on where bitcoin’s price is headed. according to polymarket, there’s a 5% chance bitcoin will reach $190,000 this year. do you think something like that is possible? i don’t think the probability is even one in a thousand. but just because i think that doesn’t mean i have to place a bet on the opposite outcome on polymarket, because i could be wrong.

polymarket’s goal is to make more money, and the probabilities are determined by trading bots and users. if someone makes a purchase worth millions of dollars, the probability of the price dropping to $55,000, which is currently 50%, could jump to 99% in just a few minutes. this is entirely related to liquidity and where the money is.

[Donneski]

Bitcoin's bounce off the February lows lasted more than 90 days. According to analyst Matthew Hyland, the longest uptrend in BTC history ran 89 days — making this one already a record.

I didn't understand if this means we're in an uptrend and a correction is imminent, or what?

A correction is possible due to inflation indicators, so even without any technical indicators, reaching the $60,000 level is still a possibility.

From what I make of the post, I think the Op was tryna say that the market is technically still in an uptrend at the moment but the longer and stronger the rally continues without a significant pull back, the higher chances of a sharp correction afterwards. So I  doubt he meant to say that the trend is over already.

About the inflation indicator, I agree with what you said. Even without the technical analysis a lot of experts are drawing their conclusions from, macro conditions are enough to force BTC back to around $60k if sentiments weakens for a while.

[aoluain]

I am not sure why words of these "many analysts" should weigh anything, as many analysts are always going to be wrong. I could be as well, as they are all more or less educated guesses. There are just too much information to speculate with, and it doesn't help that bottom value can't really be calculated.

I would be scepticle of the 'many analyists' too.

The way I have been thinking for the last few months is that the Bitcoin cycle is still in operation
which means we are in a Bear market 'still' so yea I am hoping that the market pulls back a bit
but I am kind of confident in that purely based on the cycle and where we are ATM in that.

[EarnOnVictor]

Polymarket currently puts the odds of BTC falling to $55K this year at 51%. The $60K level also lines up with the cost of mining, which makes it a natural floor for any Bitcoin selloff.

I've been closely monitoring Bitcoin's behaviour recently, and it could be tricky sometimes. The bullish pull since April is a good one, and the EMA50 on the monthly chart did a wonderful job in making sure it happened. It was the only tool I followed and it was more than sufficient, but with price action though.

As things are now, I fear for a reversal. Let's be hopeful that Bitcoin could break the peak it rebounded to at about $82,850. If it continues to hold below it, then, It's an issues, which could strengthen the sellers. That's more reason why Polymarket is baiting people about a fall.

[philipma1957]

Perfect time to stack and add via dca.