A bettor loses $55k on "Guaranteed" Bet on Jannik Sinner in the French Open

[Wind_FURY]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

That sort of situation is comparable to Long Term Capital Management's high-leveraged "trades" in fixed-income arbitrage and relative-value convergence trades.

 

I believe those trades they made were about 100x leverage. Their "bets" were in high-probability trades, BUT it merely took ONE market anomaly to lose all of their capital.

[bubilas]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

This event absolutely clearly shows that if you want to make a small profit with a lot of money, it's better to choose investing than betting or gambling. In betting, as we can see from this example: no matter how strong the favorite, there are no guarantees. I'm sure that throughout the history of sports, we've seen many events where very strong favorites were defeated by absolutely impossible dark horses. This is sport, and anything can happen. So, I can only sympathize with the loser.

[imthegreat]

It's funny to see the word "guaranteed" in the same sentence as "betting." If everything were that simple, everyone would take their pile of money and bet on a match where the winnings wouldn't be much, but where "they could supposedly be sure of winning." In my country, such matches are called "cast-iron matches," meaning "everything is clear and easy," and the outcome is supposedly as predictable as possible. And apparently, this bettor, who bet his entire 55,000, thought so too, but it turned out he was seriously mistaken. I wish this loser moral and financial strength.

[stadus]

He probably thought it was easy money and took it, but that is insane because the bet still lost. That only shows nothing is really guaranteed in betting.

Even me, I would bet on Sinner, but I would never take odds like that because an upset can always happen. That is many hours of playing, and we do not know if injury or something unexpected will happen. So we really have to be careful. That must be a lesson learned for the bettor, and for sure he will think twice before making that kind of bet again.

[summonerrk]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

I can only envy those guys who bet against Sinner. They won an incredible amount of money, either because they're crazy, or because they predicted such an incredibly unexpected outcome. This truly is the black swan that all those bettors who like to make such bets, thinking that a small but "stable" profit is already in their grasp, fear. Because there can be no stable income in betting. It's not a bank or smart contracts, it's life and people, and even the favorites can sometimes lose shamefully; it happens.

[batang_bitcoin]

Guaranteed? from that reading it only shows how confident this bettor is. That won't give an easy pass to win because even in the lowest odd, there's no guarantee with that because the risk remains with that. There are still a lot of bettors that would definitely bet on low odds as 1.01 even with a million dollars but that's not a safe and guarantee bet. We all know about that and if someone who's too attracted to bet on these odds need to think a lot first.

[Betwrong]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000
~

Yeah, it's sad, to be honest. As a bettor, you should never think that any outcome is guaranteed.

There was a case a couple of years ago where a guy bet $1,000,000 on a team that everyone "knew" would win, and that's why the odds were 1.01. He probably thought, "That's $10k just lying on the ground. Why not pick it up?" The game ended in a draw, and he lost his million.

[retreat]

This proves that there is no guarantee of winning in sports betting, even when the odds are as low as 1.01, the outcome of the match is still determined by various factors that are not entirely predictable.

And for bettors, there is no need to be overconfident, because from what I saw before this match, that guy was ranting on X by saying that "I make money in my sleep; you wake up to make money #levels" it only proves how much he underestimated this bet and was sure that he could get free money, but the reality says otherwise. I'm sure that so many people are making fun of him now.

[salad daging]

There are times when a gambler is unlucky even if the odds are small 1.01x so never bet a lot of money because small odds do not guarantee anything, while in sports anything can happen even if the odds are far different from the underdog team.

Nothing is safe, except for betting. Sports betting, however good the odds may be for us to win, is not a sure thing. There's always a chance of losing, and that's a fact. That's why we must have many arguments to bet with confidence. Is there insider information out there? Nobody guarantees it. Things sometimes happen for a reason; there are extraordinary events that defy our imagination.

Odds of 1.01x are more than 99% chance of winning, but when a bettor loses, it means he is stepping on the 1% trap to lose.
Even though insider information is not guaranteed in betting, when you are unlucky then no one can refuse this, everyone will feel the same way.
For me, it's enough to be realistic, if you lose then you have to accept reality gracefully.

[Japinat]

There was a case a couple of years ago where a guy bet $1,000,000 on a team that everyone "knew" would win, and that's why the odds were 1.01. He probably thought, "That's $10k just lying on the ground. Why not pick it up?" The game ended in a draw, and he lost his million.

The guy probably has not read that story because if he did, I don’t think he would make that kind of stupid bet.  

Well, it is understandable that we have comments now because the bet lost. But if that bet had won, maybe some people would praise him for having the balls to take a big risk for a very low reward. That is how gambling reactions usually work. When you lose, people call it stupid, but when you win, they call it brave.

Odds of 1.01x are more than 99% chance of winning,

IP yes, TP ( not sure).

[Fivestar4everMVP]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

What do you guys think about it?

Well, nothing much for me, aside the fact that this is just another brutal reminder that nothing, especially winnings, is ever guaranteed in gambling generally not just betting on sports or sports betting (how ever we might want to put it)

I can imagine myself losing a whopping $55k because I needed to win $1k, that's very brutal and a shameful way to lose money, there is this common saying in my language that if translated to English goes and I quote "he who wants to eat frog should make sure to find the biggest frogs and eat, so that when he is being called a frog eater, he will respond with pride knowing he deserved to be called that for eating the biggest frogs".

Myself can never risk $55k for a mere $1k profit, this is the kind of risk I usually refer to as uncalculated, the profit does not worth the amount of money that was put at risk here, and it's unfortunate that who ever this is will have to learn the hard way, except he's a billionaire or millionaire and losing this amount meant nothing for him.

[welovebit]

Guaranteed? from that reading it only shows how confident this bettor is. That won't give an easy pass to win because even in the lowest odd, there's no guarantee with that because the risk remains with that. There are still a lot of bettors that would definitely bet on low odds as 1.01 even with a million dollars but that's not a safe and guarantee bet. We all know about that and if someone who's too attracted to bet on these odds need to think a lot first.

This world guarantees to kill many in bets like these because a few years back, while the Cricket World Cup was played, one better sold his home for a bet like this because he was sure it was going to be free money, but at the end, he lost the bet and committed suicide. Always be careful about betting and risk management.

There is no free money in any case; always a risk factor is available, and people never understand. Usually this happens in countries where people need to have quick money. People who are well aware of gambling and its consequences never do things like this.

[Wakate]

Guaranteed? from that reading it only shows how confident this bettor is. That won't give an easy pass to win because even in the lowest odd, there's no guarantee with that because the risk remains with that. There are still a lot of bettors that would definitely bet on low odds as 1.01 even with a million dollars but that's not a safe and guarantee bet. We all know about that and if someone who's too attracted to bet on these odds need to think a lot first.

There are lots of manipulation in gambling and trying to make profits after you have stake huge amounts on a match will not change the outcome. Most of the big games are manipulated and trying to win can look uneasy because the people that the fixed the match also want to make big money from gambling.

[Barcode_]

That is also one of the reason the sports bookmakers are still willing to continue allowing live betting on this tennis match when Jannik Sinner are looking in good shape to seal the third set but the results in fact reversed in favor of the bookmakers. By adjusting the odds payout, the bookmakers are actually taking a very low risk of losing huge chunk of their bankroll away while gamblers will need to stake huge amount of money in order to reap some small profits due to the lowly odds payout. I think this gambler has indeed learnt a painful lesson as surprising unexpected results are bound to happen sometimes during sports betting.

[Natalim]

I think this gambler has indeed learnt a painful lesson as surprising unexpected results are bound to happen sometimes during sports betting.

He played the safest path, but it turned out it was not safe at all.

From what I read, the odds of the opponent somehow increased to x800 or even x1000. Imagine if that bettor had taken the other side, and that $55k was accepted during live betting, it could have turned into around $55 million.

That is insane, right? But that also shows how crazy gambling can be, the side that looks safest can still lose, while the impossible side can suddenly become life-changing.

[Davidvictorson]

What do you guys think about it?

Probably the guy who lost threw caution to the when with his risk management strategy. I bet he only thought of what he stood to win and never considered the flip side of the coin of what he stood to lose. This makes me think that most gamblers are just blind optimists rather than being honest and looking at the games realistically. In gambling especially sports betting the outcomes is not promised no matter what a punter says which is why you must have that at the back of your mind when placing your bet with whatever amount you have decided to stake.

[AVE5]

It's funny to see the word "guaranteed" in the same sentence as "betting." If everything were that simple, everyone would take their pile of money and bet on a match where the winnings wouldn't be much, but where "they could supposedly be sure of winning." In my country, such matches are called "cast-iron matches," meaning "everything is clear and easy," and the outcome is supposedly as predictable as possible. And apparently, this bettor, who bet his entire 55,000, thought so too, but it turned out he was seriously mistaken. I wish this loser moral and financial strength.

Dude must have learnt his lessons in the hard way by now.
I don't really know that rate of that confidence in gamblers that'll make them wager such huge amount of money.
Even if the game maybe seem so guaranteed like, it's not still worth taking that level of risks of betting amount that you'll loose and won't have your peace of mind.
To me matter my overconfidence in any game that may be EXAGGERATED to be guaranteed, I'd still maintain by risk factors of betting what I can afford to loose.

[DrBeer]

There have been similar incidents before. But I don't know, I can't understand this risk and reward perception.
Why would someone risk $55,000 just to earn $1,000? It doesn't seem logical at all. Maybe it's because of fanaticism, or maybe it's an emotional decision just to support Jannik Sinner. I honestly can't figure out exactly what psychology is behind this.

That’s a very logical question!
Risking 55,000 for 1,000 doesn’t seem very sensible. By the way, it would be interesting to ask the bettor himself what motivated him to make such an illogical bet. I can only assume that he considered the victory a foregone conclusion and completely dismissed even the slightest possibility that anything other than his favorite’s victory could happen...

[Wind_FURY]

What do you guys think about it?

Probably the guy who lost threw caution to the when with his risk management strategy. I bet he only thought of what he stood to win and never considered the flip side of the coin of what he stood to lose. This makes me think that most gamblers are just blind optimists rather than being honest and looking at the games realistically. In gambling especially sports betting the outcomes is not promised no matter what a punter says which is why you must have that at the back of your mind when placing your bet with whatever amount you have decided to stake.

Those low amount/high probability outcomes are indeed profitable in a normal situation, UNTIL an actual Black Swan happens. Because those sorts of bets need the person to place a large amount of capital to win an acceptable amount of money, the loss when a Black Swan indeed happens is probably traumatic.

  👀

[batang_bitcoin]

Guaranteed? from that reading it only shows how confident this bettor is. That won't give an easy pass to win because even in the lowest odd, there's no guarantee with that because the risk remains with that. There are still a lot of bettors that would definitely bet on low odds as 1.01 even with a million dollars but that's not a safe and guarantee bet. We all know about that and if someone who's too attracted to bet on these odds need to think a lot first.

This world guarantees to kill many in bets like these because a few years back, while the Cricket World Cup was played, one better sold his home for a bet like this because he was sure it was going to be free money, but at the end, he lost the bet and committed suicide. Always be careful about betting and risk management.

There is no free money in any case; always a risk factor is available, and people never understand. Usually this happens in countries where people need to have quick money. People who are well aware of gambling and its consequences never do things like this.

Oh my gosh, that's a devastating story even though I don't know that one I am pretty sure that there were couple of the same stories that have happened like that. We know people can do crazy things just for betting with one that they are quite sure of.

Guaranteed? from that reading it only shows how confident this bettor is. That won't give an easy pass to win because even in the lowest odd, there's no guarantee with that because the risk remains with that. There are still a lot of bettors that would definitely bet on low odds as 1.01 even with a million dollars but that's not a safe and guarantee bet. We all know about that and if someone who's too attracted to bet on these odds need to think a lot first.

There are lots of manipulation in gambling and trying to make profits after you have stake huge amounts on a match will not change the outcome. Most of the big games are manipulated and trying to win can look uneasy because the people that the fixed the match also want to make big money from gambling.

In sports betting, I think all games are fair if you're following the top leagues and sports. If there's some manipulation happens, their communities and veteran athletes and analysts will call them out. If there's any for real, we will barely notice it.